11-25-2010, 05:50 PM
x-posting from BRF
Quote:I may be in minority but I think EVMs are tampered in Bihar elections. BJP supporters are just escatic that 91/102 but not understanding there may be a lemon in it. As I said after Hariprasad's revelation, in a multi-party system where a candidate does not need 50% of votes polled to win - you only need to do certain (not more than 4% ) selected booths.
Regarding Bihar - it is a well known conclusion that NDA will win. All the exit polls predicted 170-175 for NDA. Only the post poll "research" by CNN-IBN predicted that NDA will get 200+. Even in that prediction, they did not give BJP such a large number. The media's thoery was that Nitish can go alone and ditch BJP. One has to watch Bharka's unhapinees on NDTV when BJP's gain is more than Nitish's gain.
I say an attempt has been made to make Nitish alone gets comfortable majority.
EVM issues and problems are not solved. EC has to do a better job than what they did so far.
Here is my wildest theory:
Under the circumstances based on prior surveys, INC may have concluded that Bihar is not in their reach. However, it is in the interest of Congress party if Nitish could become independent either with their help or not. However, they definitely did not want Laloo to have any voice. Their best bet would be JDU-110, INC - 15, BJP -75 and rest does not matter. However it ended up JDU-115, BJP-91, INC-4. This is okay too but not that okay. BJP lost five more by less than 300 votes and imagine 96/102.
Couple of theories:
(1) INC wants to bring back credibility to EVMs so that the entire political setup does not jump on them so that there will be no room in future. Capturing 2014 is more important than stupid BJP's victory in Bihar. Biahr is not Maharastra or AP anyway.
(2) BJP got handle on the EVM tampering side and they are doing their own.
I have a feeling that (2) may have happened. I just cannot imagine Muslim voteshare more for BJP than even JDU or RJD or INC. Earlier indications based on available calculation are pointing that way. What is that BJP did to Muslims that they will forget everthing and vote to BJP? Another added pointer is in Gujarat municipal and panchayat elections where certain constituencies that has muslim majority are won by BJP. Again how in the world that can happen.
Important factor - INC folks in Gujarat actually alleged that Modi tampered EVMs. The central INC folks has fired/shut down that argument/folks coming from INC folks. For them EVMs are probably key to their 2014 bid.
Now BJP's methodology. It does not have and will not have handle as much as INC has across the country. To me it looks like their strategy is to make the rigging very obvious so that all the junk parties will fight and it can sit quite passively without involving. Hence the largescale victories in Muslim strongholds will put them strategically in that direction.
Just see this http://eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS0456.htm
How in the world that happened.
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