03-03-2005, 11:50 PM
Pioneer-
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>The Machiavelli who masterminded the coup </b>
Gen Ashok K Mehta
Son of a Field Marshal, and known as Hanuman in Kathmandu, Sarat Chandra Shah, after King Gyanendra is the second most powerful man in the Kingdom of Nepal. Discredited during the Panchayat regime, he had to flee Nepal after the restoration of democracy in 1990. With absolute monarchy in place, he is now the kingpin and backchannel diplomat. The Royal coup has his hallmark. Along with two retired Generals and three other Palace henchmen Shah is taking Gyanendra down the abyss.
Last week, he was in Delhi to justify that the King's actions are meant to save democracy. But there are no takers. India is firm at least so far in its resolve of persuading the King to roll back. Suspension of military aid along with UK is means of leveraging the King. The Americans have taken a more nuanced stand: They fear that withholding military aid will strengthen the Maoists and are paranoid about a terrorist group that is also Communist, taking over Nepal. But they have not declared Maoists a terrorist group. International condemnation of the Royal coup has been swift. But will the King blink first?
He has drawn the battlelines but the setting is unclear. Democratic forces are out of the reckoning. There are two visible power centres with their respective armies: the King and the RNA versus the Maoist People's Army. The Maoists cannot defeat the RNA and vice versa. The RNA has sufficient reserves to fight the Maoists for at least another three months. The King believes that in the end it is India that will blink first because it will have no choice but to support him against the Maoists. This assumption is valid in the short term. The RNA is notoriously trigger-happy and will require replenishments of ammunition more than weapons before the end of the year. Donors that make up to 70 per cent of its budget have threatened to pull out. Tourism is down to a trickle.
This is a hopeless situation. But the RNA will not desert the King. Unfortunately it has not got its priority between King and country right. The democratic forces are likely to get increasingly marginalised. On 8 March, which is also the Army Day, the newly formed five-party alliance is planning protest demonstrations which will fizzle out. But don't rule out their forging a tactical common front with the Maoists. The Maoists have threatened to launch an indefinite nationwide strike from 14 March. If the King cannot show any spectacular result against the Maoists (and the reverse happens) he may require to consult Sarat Shah again.
One can only hope the King will realise the infinite folly of his actions and the risk they pose to Monarchy. The next 30 days will be crucial for how events shape in Nepal. In the meantime, India should not only work out its next moves, keeping the international community on board, but also think of the endgame: farewell to monarchy. But before that, democracy as an institution will have to be repaired before restoration as the sole pillar of stability in Nepal. India will of course, give King Gyanendra some more time in the hope he will blink first.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>The Machiavelli who masterminded the coup </b>
Gen Ashok K Mehta
Son of a Field Marshal, and known as Hanuman in Kathmandu, Sarat Chandra Shah, after King Gyanendra is the second most powerful man in the Kingdom of Nepal. Discredited during the Panchayat regime, he had to flee Nepal after the restoration of democracy in 1990. With absolute monarchy in place, he is now the kingpin and backchannel diplomat. The Royal coup has his hallmark. Along with two retired Generals and three other Palace henchmen Shah is taking Gyanendra down the abyss.
Last week, he was in Delhi to justify that the King's actions are meant to save democracy. But there are no takers. India is firm at least so far in its resolve of persuading the King to roll back. Suspension of military aid along with UK is means of leveraging the King. The Americans have taken a more nuanced stand: They fear that withholding military aid will strengthen the Maoists and are paranoid about a terrorist group that is also Communist, taking over Nepal. But they have not declared Maoists a terrorist group. International condemnation of the Royal coup has been swift. But will the King blink first?
He has drawn the battlelines but the setting is unclear. Democratic forces are out of the reckoning. There are two visible power centres with their respective armies: the King and the RNA versus the Maoist People's Army. The Maoists cannot defeat the RNA and vice versa. The RNA has sufficient reserves to fight the Maoists for at least another three months. The King believes that in the end it is India that will blink first because it will have no choice but to support him against the Maoists. This assumption is valid in the short term. The RNA is notoriously trigger-happy and will require replenishments of ammunition more than weapons before the end of the year. Donors that make up to 70 per cent of its budget have threatened to pull out. Tourism is down to a trickle.
This is a hopeless situation. But the RNA will not desert the King. Unfortunately it has not got its priority between King and country right. The democratic forces are likely to get increasingly marginalised. On 8 March, which is also the Army Day, the newly formed five-party alliance is planning protest demonstrations which will fizzle out. But don't rule out their forging a tactical common front with the Maoists. The Maoists have threatened to launch an indefinite nationwide strike from 14 March. If the King cannot show any spectacular result against the Maoists (and the reverse happens) he may require to consult Sarat Shah again.
One can only hope the King will realise the infinite folly of his actions and the risk they pose to Monarchy. The next 30 days will be crucial for how events shape in Nepal. In the meantime, India should not only work out its next moves, keeping the international community on board, but also think of the endgame: farewell to monarchy. But before that, democracy as an institution will have to be repaired before restoration as the sole pillar of stability in Nepal. India will of course, give King Gyanendra some more time in the hope he will blink first.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->