04-14-2011, 09:52 AM
[quote name='ramana' date='13 April 2011 - 04:20 PM' timestamp='1302729135' post='111367']
If the INC and its teams/allies lose a majority of the upcoming five states elections what will be the impact on MMS and UPA. Reason is that if there were wins in majority then INC would feel self confident to get rid of MMS and put their favored person in charge. However losses in majority would mean that they are weak and in no position to get rid of MMS. IOW these corruption issues being revealed are a protection for MMS?
[/quote]
There are multiple possibilities mostly in favor of congress party even in their loss.
(1) In TN DMK becomes vulenerable and it may work advantageous to INC at center. DMK will be a loyal partner. ADMK will try to break that relationship by trying to behave more loyal to INC. We have to see how that works. The loser will be Chidambaram.
(2) Left's loss in Kerala means more RS seats for INC which is another advantage
(3) West Bengal is a non issue for center. In case of massive Mamta win, INC can play politics of going with Left incase of her histrionics. If she loses, she will be loyal anyway. However, in both cases Pranab Da is going to become powerful over Chidu or MMS.
(4) The real change is Assam. If congress loses Assam then that is really something and for the first time congress will be losing inspite of demographic advantage. Mullas are divided and what that means is bringing in too many from Bangladesh as a voting block will backfire. The muslims are voting to different parties just like Hindus after reaching a threashold. I still cannot believe congress loss but this is the only interesting state in these elections.
Summary wise - RS will remain same due to wins in Kerala and WB but losses from Assam and TN. Congress will play Left over Mamta or Mamta over left in WB. In TN it can do the same with DMK and ADMK. But overall INC will weaken as it has to now play and not demand.
I see emergence of Pranab Da as sole replacer of MMS may take more space as Chidu will be sidelined.
If the INC and its teams/allies lose a majority of the upcoming five states elections what will be the impact on MMS and UPA. Reason is that if there were wins in majority then INC would feel self confident to get rid of MMS and put their favored person in charge. However losses in majority would mean that they are weak and in no position to get rid of MMS. IOW these corruption issues being revealed are a protection for MMS?
[/quote]
There are multiple possibilities mostly in favor of congress party even in their loss.
(1) In TN DMK becomes vulenerable and it may work advantageous to INC at center. DMK will be a loyal partner. ADMK will try to break that relationship by trying to behave more loyal to INC. We have to see how that works. The loser will be Chidambaram.
(2) Left's loss in Kerala means more RS seats for INC which is another advantage
(3) West Bengal is a non issue for center. In case of massive Mamta win, INC can play politics of going with Left incase of her histrionics. If she loses, she will be loyal anyway. However, in both cases Pranab Da is going to become powerful over Chidu or MMS.
(4) The real change is Assam. If congress loses Assam then that is really something and for the first time congress will be losing inspite of demographic advantage. Mullas are divided and what that means is bringing in too many from Bangladesh as a voting block will backfire. The muslims are voting to different parties just like Hindus after reaching a threashold. I still cannot believe congress loss but this is the only interesting state in these elections.
Summary wise - RS will remain same due to wins in Kerala and WB but losses from Assam and TN. Congress will play Left over Mamta or Mamta over left in WB. In TN it can do the same with DMK and ADMK. But overall INC will weaken as it has to now play and not demand.
I see emergence of Pranab Da as sole replacer of MMS may take more space as Chidu will be sidelined.