06-07-2011, 06:02 AM
x-posting
To me this whole thing looks this way:
(1) BC votes are with BJP and SP in UP
(2) SC votes are with Maya
(3) Brahmins are currently with Maya but they may go with any winner or perceived winner
(4) What congress is trying is by using (making a wounded one as hero) Baba to divide the BC votes between BJP, SP and Baba
(5) In such a situation if Brahmins keep voting for Maya and not to either INC or BJP Maya will win a landslide.
(6) Congress want to deal with one party BSP rather than with SP and BSP.
(7) Alliance with Maya will help INC on a pan-India level in terms of dalit votes which is traditionally a congress vote bank (Jagan gets it in AP now)
(8) In addition, using another broker called Amar Singh, they created a party called a Peace Party in UP that is exclusively for Muslims. This is again to screw SP.
(9) Mulayam now will become someone like Paswan or Laloo. (anology: British finally dumped Mir Jaffar and Mir Qasims.)
But a lot of folks expects a backlash and some wishful thinking and the 1% chance is as follows:
(1) RSS makes a deal with an alliance between Baba's party and BJP.
(2) BJP may go with Brahmin CM while Baba may have BC as their CM candidate with an agreement of who ever gets more seats will have their candidate as CM. This will bring both Brahmin and BCs(minus Yadavs ) towards saffron front.
(3) Even if this succeeds the players will be Maya and BJP but with bulged BJP/Baba. INC is screwed as it is not a landslide for Maya and a sudden revival of BJP at national level. 30+ seats to BJP in UP is a nightmare scenario.
To me this whole thing looks this way:
(1) BC votes are with BJP and SP in UP
(2) SC votes are with Maya
(3) Brahmins are currently with Maya but they may go with any winner or perceived winner
(4) What congress is trying is by using (making a wounded one as hero) Baba to divide the BC votes between BJP, SP and Baba
(5) In such a situation if Brahmins keep voting for Maya and not to either INC or BJP Maya will win a landslide.
(6) Congress want to deal with one party BSP rather than with SP and BSP.
(7) Alliance with Maya will help INC on a pan-India level in terms of dalit votes which is traditionally a congress vote bank (Jagan gets it in AP now)
(8) In addition, using another broker called Amar Singh, they created a party called a Peace Party in UP that is exclusively for Muslims. This is again to screw SP.
(9) Mulayam now will become someone like Paswan or Laloo. (anology: British finally dumped Mir Jaffar and Mir Qasims.)
But a lot of folks expects a backlash and some wishful thinking and the 1% chance is as follows:
(1) RSS makes a deal with an alliance between Baba's party and BJP.
(2) BJP may go with Brahmin CM while Baba may have BC as their CM candidate with an agreement of who ever gets more seats will have their candidate as CM. This will bring both Brahmin and BCs(minus Yadavs ) towards saffron front.
(3) Even if this succeeds the players will be Maya and BJP but with bulged BJP/Baba. INC is screwed as it is not a landslide for Maya and a sudden revival of BJP at national level. 30+ seats to BJP in UP is a nightmare scenario.