Preparing for 2014 Elections

[ramana]

Newsinsight.net writes:

C O M M E N T A R Y



Game's over

Contrary to conventional thinking, early elections cannot be ruled out, analyses N.V.Subramanian.



29 June 2011: In the middle of the Anna Hazare-Baba Ramdev campaigns a few weeks ago, Nitish Kumar dismissed the possibility of mid-term elections. His reasoning was simple but cynical. Joining the government remained strongly attractive for those outside it.



J.Jayalalithaa, on the other hand, seems of a mind that there may be mid-term elections. She is not certain about it like Nitish Kumar is definite UPA II will complete its term. But she does not overrule the possibility of early polls.



Who is right or more likely to be correct?



Jayalalithaa.



Nitish Kumar conveys the conventional wisdom against early polls. Most political parties and leaders (save Jayalalithaa) hew to this line. The only other politician to speak on the subject recently was L.K.Advani, and he said previous to Nitish that UPA II would have to be suffered till 2014.



The conventional wisdom is based on the fact that fifty-nine per cent of the 15th Lok Sabha MPs are first-timers. They have spent large sums to get elected (that is not very politically correct to say in these times of a new expressed fondness for parliamentary democracy by those same villains who subvert it), and they are determined to stay so for the full five years of their term.



But MPs are also grouped into political parties, by and large. Some are in the government, some outside. Some belong to the principal ruling party, some to the regional allies. And so on.



While their collective voice matters, they are also likely to be fragmented by the choices made by their respective political parties. They cannot en masse quit their parent parties and join the Congress to remain elected.



So let us begin with the proposition that though first-time MPs are a powerful factor against early elections, they cannot override other developments. For example, a UPA coalition partner gets both power and protection by remaining in the UPA, which is why the DMK ostensibly is supporting the government.



But if you look closely, especially in the aftermath of Kanimozhi's imprisonment, the situation has changed. The Congress leadership says it has no hand in Kanimozhi's incarceration, and that it is a matter between the Supreme Court and the CBI.



If that is the case, what does the DMK gain by being allied with the UPA?



Power? But what use is power when the DMK patriarch's daughter is in Tihar, and is being refused bail week after week? <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



A reset in DMK thinking about the Congress/ UPA may come soon, if it is not already a little evident in the manner of realignments within the BJP's Murli Manohar Joshi-led PAC.



As all those who follow the dismal news headlines know, the DMK and BSP of Mayawati have come to the side of Joshi in his doughty battles against a corrupt and scheming Congress establishment in the 2G scandal. If the DMK, BSP, the NCP (which dissociated itself from the diesel price-hike decision), etc, see no gain remaining associated with the UPA, what would the likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav get by joining the government if its parliamentary numbers fall short? <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



So Nitish Kumar's argument that the draw of power and gained protection will keep UPA II going with its allies falls on the wayside. Now consider the emergence of other factors that are battering the UPA.



The Supreme Court has taken over the 2G and black money (Hasan Ali) investigations. The government is powerless to protect the 2G crooks, and more will face exposure soon. One top Union minister is on the way to getting implicated. Separately, the credibility of the government has been destroyed by Anna Hazare.



What is left of the executive, then, is a shell presided over by a powerless prime minister called Manmohan Singh. Only a bankrupt government will plan a PR rescue for a virtually non-existent prime minister.



In truth, there is nothing remotely resembling a government today at the Centre. This corpse of government is being attacked by body-snatchers from the Congress, led by the likes of Digvijay Singh. <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />



So why should this farce continue? Frankly, it needs a single pullout by a major ally for the government to collapse.



Significantly, Jayalalithaa has indicated no desire to be part of the present Centre, barely being able to hide her disdain for it. That may be a cue for the DMK to pull out. Who knows?



This writer does not think a collapse is imminent. But it cannot be dismissed out of hand. The circumstances seem to be building towards a mid-term election, and there are all the signs that the Manmohan Singh government/ Congress party have few friends left across the political spectrum.



In all objectivity, the game seems to be over for the UPA.

I started this thread in 2010, as I felt it(UPA-II) was shakier than the shaky UPA-I.