BJP Future - 7

[ramana]

I guess self claimed defenders will pillory NM just as they did to ABV in his heydays!



Meanwhile NVS writes:



http://www.newsinsight.net/archivedebate...recno=2197

UP or down

A Congress self-assessment of doing poorly in Uttar Pradesh advantages the BJP/ NDA in 2014, says N.V.Subramanian.



21 September 2011: The Congress party's internal assessment is that it will not greatly increase its seats' tally in the 2012 UP assembly elections which Mayawati may advance to February confident of winning it. The Congress thinks it could go up by five seats to twenty-seven or five down. It is not winning UP and believes it will worsen its chances in the 2014 general elections.



Who benefits? Logically, the BJP, which fits with conventional thinking. After the exposure of the UPA's mega scams, the BJP had taken a lead. Anna Hazare's anti-corruption campaign, although not meant to, has further consolidated the BJP's winning position.



The big trouble that the Congress sees in UP is that scandals like 2G have produced outrage in the rural hinterland. The complicated nature of the scams has, however, made no difference to their easy understanding, mediated by the campaign of Anna Hazare. Congress insiders report of despair about UP.



It tells that Sonia Gandhi has lost her touch and Rahul Gandhi cannot do magic in UP. All this may change since it is an assessment. But the assessment is being taken seriously.



Senior Congress leaders/ managers are fighting shy of entering the UP battlefield because any debacle will singe them. It is forecast that the defeat will rankle as much as Rahul's rout in Bihar at the hands of Nitish Kumar.



But on the non-Congress side, it will throw wide open the issue of prime-ministership. Some analysts believe Mayawati will stake her claim as strongly as will Nitish Kumar. This is possible.



But Nitish will be on solider ground. Mayawati's tempestuousness, dodgy governance and refusal to share the fruits of coalition politics will prove her undoing.



Never mind, Ms Mayawati is expected to say. If her winning streak continues in 2014, her big bloc of MPs will have a decisive say in who forms the next government and becomes PM. If she sits out in the opposition whilst ruling UP, she will be formidable.



Countering Mayawati will be easier for Nitish, though, than keeping BJP prime-ministerial contenders like Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi at bay. From today's statement after meeting the RSS chief, it appears L.K.Advani is not in the PM's race. In case Advani at a later date convinces the RSS about his prime-ministerial qualities, Nitish is stuck.



But it does appear that the RSS has, in its informal style, convinced Advani to play the role of elder statesman. His proposed yatra will advance that role.



As an elder statesman, Advani can be quite damaging to the Congress. The Congress will stoke fears of his previous yatra. But if no PM ambition attaches to Advani, the yatra could bring serious reverses to the Congress on core themes such as good governance and zero tolerance for corruption.



An Advani on the roll could widen the BJP-Congress gap, and the wider it gets, the less chances Nitish has of becoming PM. Then the race will open among BJP contenders, where Advani, if he keeps his own ambitions locked up, will have considerable say in the choice of PM candidate.



Certainly, a lot of this is projective, taking off from the Congress's internal assessment of a poor showing in UP. If the Congress does do badly, it will be too demoralized to put up a fight in 2014, leaving the field open for the opposition. In which case, the scenario described above could play out.



But one thing is clear. UP holds the key to the 2014 polls. Winning UP should be top on the agenda for every consequential political party in North India.