[quote name='balai_c' date='19 May 2012 - 12:46 PM' timestamp='1337411327' post='114902']
Can the learned gurus here offer me an insight of the status of India's super-critical gas centrifuges? How do they fare against the contemporary state of the art centrifuges elsewhere in the world (especially EU and American technology)?
[/quote]
I am no expert on centrifuges. Based on the research I have done so far. I have presented this. We were tinkering with super-critical since 1992. Before that PKI said we don't have bellows which could mean sub-critical. Our centrifuge component as far back as 2005/2006 were for parts with bellows which indicate super-critical centrifuges. There were orders for longer parts with bellows. Again an indication of super-critical with possibly a thrust to increase SWU/yr or hide the number of units. I think it's the increase we were looking at. Also the induction of 3rd generation units with 20 SWU/yr was on in October 2008. These are likely super-critical. We also asked for machined bellows and not hand-made bellows. So follow on orders were assured. Tenders were likely not called for after this. This was a supplier with assured follow on orders. In 2008 we were experimenting with carbon fiber composite SWU's. And 2010 and 2011 reports indicate we enhanced the RMP in numbers and in technology. So the RMP could be running a large mix of 40 SWU/yr with some 20 SWU/yr and others of lower designation. Design life of the Russian units were 25 years. So our 2-3 SWU/yr units are long gone or near death. I am not sure about the 1992 - 2000 models, they also had ugly noise issues, or resonance problems and failures back then. So these may already be on the way out or are already discarded. The choice we have is between the "less" expensive and reasonably reliable 20 SWU/yr units and 30-40 SWU/yr carbon fiber units which are likely more expensive but more reliable. Our supply chain may be more 20 SWU/yr oriented as of 2005-2006. These are good candidates to farm out to Chitradurga. The 20 SWU/yr units in RMP may also be transferred there. If any 2-3 SWU/yr unit's of 5 or 10 year vintage exist which don't use foreign parts or with foreign parts which are working might be sent out there to work and die in Chitradurga. The Chitradurga is likely a civil facility.
Americans are far ahead of us. GE-Hitachi team had achieved industrial scale Laser separation process. SILEX. They ran a test industrial unit in 2010 or 2011. After this successful operation they have placed a request for approval for an industrial plant in US. They will produce staggering amounts of LEU for one facility. Since Hitachi is involved the Japanese might be in on it too, but I am not sure. Export controls might mean it's US only. US has exported enrichment technology to Japan in 1990. The only other country with this technology is the developer of SILEX, Australia. Austraila has no power plants using uranium and are said to be only interested in enrichment for god knows what.Maybe to keep the option alive should the world change.
The americans are also looking at supercritical centrifuge larger than T21 with the same surface speed as T21 or higher surface speed.
As far as EU goes, it's urenco technology.
Most of the installed EU units operate at 620m/sec with 40SWU/yr.(T12). There is a newer T21 units are so far experimental or deployed in only one plant so far.We are at the 4th generation urenco or 5th generation. One parameter is the surface speed, the unknown parameters are the size and dimensions of the balti in India. A larger balti, and/or longer balti at the same speed means more SWU at same surface speed. Unkil also in this area wanted to go for bigger balti at same speed as T21 or higher speed. T21 is 50x the early designs. If they are referring to 2-3 SWU/yr unit first generation we are talking 100-150SWU/yr from these T21 centrifuges. The good part is our 4th or 5th generation is composite fiber. So we can move up faster now. The metal ones are not very good at high-speed. We need to develop bigger and longer balti. In addition the reports on early centrifuges in India indicated we were using different dimensions compared to the Urenco units. These are based on component orders India made for these plants. So our design is slightly different even back in the sub-critical days of 1990. A spot on estimate is difficult.Even those early designs referred to bellows which indicates dampening and rotor breaking and noise reports. This was way back in 1992. So we were experimenting with them back then. These noise reports indicate the stage of moving past resonance in super-critical centrifuges. The real kicker is the report on carbon composite design at 600m/sec. This plus 10x indicates 30 to 40 SWU/yr super-critical. All orders after 2005 which were tendered indicate bellows. So these are super-critical.The length also increased in 2006 or so. So These again indicate longer balti. So super-critical equal to 4th or 5th generation is really good under technology denial. So we have had super-critical tests since 1992. 2008 is possibly when these have become extremely stable and one or two generations behind T21. But T21 hasn't been deployed in industrial scale except one plant. Even Urenco has hinted they will not have a new generation in another 10 years but will work on T21 to make incremental gains.
Russia is going for Generation 9 devices. These are super-critical in 2009. The Russians have adopted super-critical and sub-critical centrifuges. They operated sub-critical in large numbers due to cheaper production costs and the ease of using large numbers for civil nuclear activity until 2010. Most of this sub-critical stuff is possibly on sale. However our interest is possibly in Gen-9 which the Russians are reluctant to part with as even they have not deployed them in numbers. To be clear Russia had produced super-critical centrifuges in 1959 or so. However it's been reserved for certain uses not mass enrichment of feed stock for nuclear reactors. The capacity after smart II (1993?) was vacant so they even used the tail stock at some stage to get 0.7% uranium and export it as natural uranium. Even their Gen 9 units are not completely carbon fiber. It's carbon reinforced metal to make manufacturing cheaper and easier. This is how they work. Mass produce cheaper to get more units.
China has 2 million SWU(?) and is adding another 3.5 million SWU by 2020. They were given Gen 5 Russian units in 1990. The generation is not very clear though and open literature does not confirm the design transferred.
Areva, Urenco, Usec, and Tenex are the major western suppliers. Hitachi-GE will likely get approval in 30 months when the Russia-USA HEU pact ends in 2013. They will be a force to recon with and possibly the cheapest LEU supplier in the entire world. They will produce 2-3 million SWU by 2020 at current plans. 80 million SWU is the estimated global supply in 2020. The current world supply is close to 40 million SWU. So our goal has just shifted. Laser enrichment is possible on industrial scale. We need to get there to stay competitive.
Can the learned gurus here offer me an insight of the status of India's super-critical gas centrifuges? How do they fare against the contemporary state of the art centrifuges elsewhere in the world (especially EU and American technology)?
[/quote]
I am no expert on centrifuges. Based on the research I have done so far. I have presented this. We were tinkering with super-critical since 1992. Before that PKI said we don't have bellows which could mean sub-critical. Our centrifuge component as far back as 2005/2006 were for parts with bellows which indicate super-critical centrifuges. There were orders for longer parts with bellows. Again an indication of super-critical with possibly a thrust to increase SWU/yr or hide the number of units. I think it's the increase we were looking at. Also the induction of 3rd generation units with 20 SWU/yr was on in October 2008. These are likely super-critical. We also asked for machined bellows and not hand-made bellows. So follow on orders were assured. Tenders were likely not called for after this. This was a supplier with assured follow on orders. In 2008 we were experimenting with carbon fiber composite SWU's. And 2010 and 2011 reports indicate we enhanced the RMP in numbers and in technology. So the RMP could be running a large mix of 40 SWU/yr with some 20 SWU/yr and others of lower designation. Design life of the Russian units were 25 years. So our 2-3 SWU/yr units are long gone or near death. I am not sure about the 1992 - 2000 models, they also had ugly noise issues, or resonance problems and failures back then. So these may already be on the way out or are already discarded. The choice we have is between the "less" expensive and reasonably reliable 20 SWU/yr units and 30-40 SWU/yr carbon fiber units which are likely more expensive but more reliable. Our supply chain may be more 20 SWU/yr oriented as of 2005-2006. These are good candidates to farm out to Chitradurga. The 20 SWU/yr units in RMP may also be transferred there. If any 2-3 SWU/yr unit's of 5 or 10 year vintage exist which don't use foreign parts or with foreign parts which are working might be sent out there to work and die in Chitradurga. The Chitradurga is likely a civil facility.
Americans are far ahead of us. GE-Hitachi team had achieved industrial scale Laser separation process. SILEX. They ran a test industrial unit in 2010 or 2011. After this successful operation they have placed a request for approval for an industrial plant in US. They will produce staggering amounts of LEU for one facility. Since Hitachi is involved the Japanese might be in on it too, but I am not sure. Export controls might mean it's US only. US has exported enrichment technology to Japan in 1990. The only other country with this technology is the developer of SILEX, Australia. Austraila has no power plants using uranium and are said to be only interested in enrichment for god knows what.Maybe to keep the option alive should the world change.
The americans are also looking at supercritical centrifuge larger than T21 with the same surface speed as T21 or higher surface speed.
As far as EU goes, it's urenco technology.
Most of the installed EU units operate at 620m/sec with 40SWU/yr.(T12). There is a newer T21 units are so far experimental or deployed in only one plant so far.We are at the 4th generation urenco or 5th generation. One parameter is the surface speed, the unknown parameters are the size and dimensions of the balti in India. A larger balti, and/or longer balti at the same speed means more SWU at same surface speed. Unkil also in this area wanted to go for bigger balti at same speed as T21 or higher speed. T21 is 50x the early designs. If they are referring to 2-3 SWU/yr unit first generation we are talking 100-150SWU/yr from these T21 centrifuges. The good part is our 4th or 5th generation is composite fiber. So we can move up faster now. The metal ones are not very good at high-speed. We need to develop bigger and longer balti. In addition the reports on early centrifuges in India indicated we were using different dimensions compared to the Urenco units. These are based on component orders India made for these plants. So our design is slightly different even back in the sub-critical days of 1990. A spot on estimate is difficult.Even those early designs referred to bellows which indicates dampening and rotor breaking and noise reports. This was way back in 1992. So we were experimenting with them back then. These noise reports indicate the stage of moving past resonance in super-critical centrifuges. The real kicker is the report on carbon composite design at 600m/sec. This plus 10x indicates 30 to 40 SWU/yr super-critical. All orders after 2005 which were tendered indicate bellows. So these are super-critical.The length also increased in 2006 or so. So These again indicate longer balti. So super-critical equal to 4th or 5th generation is really good under technology denial. So we have had super-critical tests since 1992. 2008 is possibly when these have become extremely stable and one or two generations behind T21. But T21 hasn't been deployed in industrial scale except one plant. Even Urenco has hinted they will not have a new generation in another 10 years but will work on T21 to make incremental gains.
Russia is going for Generation 9 devices. These are super-critical in 2009. The Russians have adopted super-critical and sub-critical centrifuges. They operated sub-critical in large numbers due to cheaper production costs and the ease of using large numbers for civil nuclear activity until 2010. Most of this sub-critical stuff is possibly on sale. However our interest is possibly in Gen-9 which the Russians are reluctant to part with as even they have not deployed them in numbers. To be clear Russia had produced super-critical centrifuges in 1959 or so. However it's been reserved for certain uses not mass enrichment of feed stock for nuclear reactors. The capacity after smart II (1993?) was vacant so they even used the tail stock at some stage to get 0.7% uranium and export it as natural uranium. Even their Gen 9 units are not completely carbon fiber. It's carbon reinforced metal to make manufacturing cheaper and easier. This is how they work. Mass produce cheaper to get more units.
China has 2 million SWU(?) and is adding another 3.5 million SWU by 2020. They were given Gen 5 Russian units in 1990. The generation is not very clear though and open literature does not confirm the design transferred.
Areva, Urenco, Usec, and Tenex are the major western suppliers. Hitachi-GE will likely get approval in 30 months when the Russia-USA HEU pact ends in 2013. They will be a force to recon with and possibly the cheapest LEU supplier in the entire world. They will produce 2-3 million SWU by 2020 at current plans. 80 million SWU is the estimated global supply in 2020. The current world supply is close to 40 million SWU. So our goal has just shifted. Laser enrichment is possible on industrial scale. We need to get there to stay competitive.