Unmasking AIT

[Husky]

Post 3/3

of archiving the parts that struck me as relevant in the actual study's paper.



Still taken from nature.com/ncomms/2015/150519/ncomms8152/full/ncomms8152.html

Analyses of ancient autosomal sequence data19 demonstrate discontinuity 7–5 KYA between western European hunter-gatherers, tending to have genetic affinity to northern Europeans *, and farmers, resembling southern Europeans. Consideration of the genomic ancestry of modern Europeans33 reveals ancestry from these two groups, but also from north Eurasian hunter-gatherers33. Recent analysis34 better defines this latter component, supporting a two-migration model into a hunter-gatherer substrate, involving an early-Neolithic (7–8 KYA) arrival of farming populations from the Near East, followed by a late-Neolithic (4.5 KYA) migration of pastoralists from the steppe region north of the Caspian Sea, whose genomic contribution is ubiquitous in modern Europeans. Ancient MSY sequences34 show that hgs R1a and R1b are present in the steppe much earlier than observed in any European sites (Supplementary Table 8), making this region a likely source for these MSY expansion lineages.**



19 Olalde, I. et al. Derived immune and ancestral pigmentation alleles in a 7,000-year-old Mesolithic European. Nature 507, 225–228 (2014).



(^This, ref 19, I think was the Stone Age European paper.

* "Discontinuity" from the hunter gatherer who was found. Offers Europe a clean slate: puts an end to many of the questions arising from the Stone Age European of African-skintone and otherwise Scandinavian genes who was found in Spain, and his connection to Europe. A break with his kind was already implied in the wholesale - or actually 2/3 - European replacement by surmised Kurgan Oryans. And that explains why it was necessary for Saami to demonstrate one of the 3 paternal lineages: Saami aren't African in skintone but fair. So whiteness to be traced to Oryanist lineages after all?

Hmm. That the study left out not only Estonians but also Finnish is another curiosity.)



34 Haak, W. et al. Massive migration from the steppe was a source for Indo-European languages in Europe. Nature doi:10.1038/nature14317 (2015).



(** The above is the Massive Migration IE languages from The Steppes Into Europe paper.)

"Ancient MSY sequences34 show that hgs R1a and R1b are present in the steppe much earlier than observed in any European sites"

That may be, but even the Massive Migration paper specifically spoke of the conventional Kurgan Urheimat Hypothesis' date of ~4500 years ago for the Kurgan invasion/IE dispersal into Europe. Even if that was merely the last or most significant/effective/noticeable wave, it still doesn't explain the presence of R1a in Europe at about 7300 years ago/5300 BCE as per Figure 3 at nature.com/ncomms/2015/150519/ncomms8152/full/ncomms8152.html#ref-link-17



Figure 3 is from "an independent analysis of MSY diversity in the pooled HGDP CEPH panel European samples16, and is compatible with current (n=98) ancient DNA data for MSY".



Again:

Kurgan Urheimat is dated 5000 BCE. Mallory dates the "IE dispersals" (waves of invasions/migrations) into Europe starting at 4500 BCE, earlier than Gimbutas' version of what's originally her Kurgan hypothesis at ~3000 BCE. R1a in Europe at 7250 years BP = 5250 BCE is then older than the Steppe Urheimat/PIE at 5000 BCE. Even if it's give or take 300 years, so that PIE exists at a proposed steppe urheimat at 5300 BCE, you'd expect the early R1a entry into Europe at 7300 BP/5300BCE to be speaking "PIE" not later branches, and that means some local development of IE languages internal to Europe would have taken place surely, before the Bronze Age invasions I mean massive migrations from the steppe?

Ancient mtDNA data18 also indicate large-scale population discontinuity since the Neolithic transition, with a massive shift in haplogroup composition ~7.5 KYA between Central European hunter-gatherers (carrying exclusively hg U lineages) and farmers (a much broader range of hgs), followed by later fluctuations. Demographic inference from whole mtDNA sequences16, however, does not show recent and sudden expansion. This suggests that the recent events responsible for shaping modern MSY variation were male specific.



16 Brandt, G. et al. Ancient DNA reveals key stages in the formation of central European mitochondrial genetic diversity. Science 342, 257–261 (2013).



The period 4–5 KYA (the Early Bronze Age) is characterized by rapid and widespread change, involving changes in burial practices that might signify an emphasis on individuals or kin groups, the spread of horse riding, and the emergence of elites and developments in weaponry35. In principle male-driven social selection36 associated with these changes could have led to rapid local increases in the frequencies of introgressing haplogroups34, and subsequent spread, as has been suggested for Asia37. However, cultures across Europe remain diverse during this period; clarifying the temporal and geographical pattern of the shift will rely heavily on additional ancient DNA data.





35 Cunliffe, B. Europe Between the Oceans: 9000 BC-AD 1000 Yale University Press (2011).

36 Zerjal, T. et al. The genetic legacy of the Mongols. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 72, 717–721 (2003).

37 Reference is to a study about Genghis Khan et al Asian lineages (also mentioned in the most recently-pasted dailymail article and a separate article):

nature.com/ejhg/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ejhg2014285a.html

Balaresque, P. et al. Y-chromosome descent clusters and male differential reproductive success: young lineage expansions dominate Asian pastoral nomadic populations. Eur. J. Hum. Genet. doi:doi:10.1038/ejhg.2014.285 (2015).

Skipped over the method section except for:

Demographic models and priors



We considered five models depicting different demographic histories, testing each model separately for each population (Supplementary Fig. 2). M1 is the simplest, in which the effective population size remains constant over time (uniform prior: 20–20,000). In M2 an ancient constant-sized population (uniform prior: 1,001–20,000) starts an exponential reduction T1 generations ago. The reduction spans LEX generations (uniform prior: 5–634), then the population returns to constant size (uniform prior: 20–1,000) T2 generations ago (uniform prior: 0–30). In M3 the reduction is followed by an expansion that starts T2 generations ago (with the effective population size, NER, drawn from an uniform prior: 20–1,000) until the present (uniform prior for the current effective population size, NC: 1,001–20,000). M4 is parameterized in the same way as M2, with an expansion instead of a reduction (NA uniform prior: 20–1,000; NC uniform prior: 1,001–20,000). In M5, the expansion ends at T2 followed by a reduction until present time (NEE uniform prior: 1,001–20,000; NC uniform prior: 20–1,000). We considered a generation time of 30 years.** In all the models the Last Glacial Maximum (~20,000 years ago) represents the upper bound of the time for the first demographic change (T1).



In each simulation the per-generation, per-site mutation rate24 is drawn from a normal distribution with mean 3.01 × 10-8 and 95% confidence intervals 2.77–3.26 × 10-8. DNA sequences were generated under a finite sites mutational model with no transition/transversion bias.



Perl scripts used in the analysis are available upon request.



(** Then "a generation time" doesn't mean age until the next generation but average lifespan? Or is it not talking about humans at all and I just misunderstood?)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proto-Indo-European_Urheimat_hypotheses

She (Gimbutas, in her suggestion of Kurgan Urheimat hypothesis of the 1950s) had created a modern variation on the traditional invasion theory (the Kurgan hypothesis, after the kurgans, burial mounds, of the Eurasian steppes) in which the Indo-Europeans were a nomadic tribe in Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia and expanded on horseback in several waves during the 3rd millennium BCE. Their expansion coincided with the taming of the horse. Leaving archaeological signs of their presence (see battle-axe people), they subjugated the peaceful European Neolithic farmers of Gimbutas's Old Europe. As Gimbutas's beliefs evolved, she put increasing emphasis on the patriarchal, patrilinear nature of the invading culture, sharply contrasting it with the supposedly egalitarian, if not matrilinear culture of the invaded, to the point of formulating essentially a feminist archaeology.



Her interpretation of Indo-European culture found genetic support in remains from the Neolithic culture of Scandinavia, where DNA from bone remains in Neolithic graves indicated that the megalith culture was either matrilocal or matrilineal, as the people buried in the same grave were related through the women. Likewise, there is a tradition of remaining matrilineal traditions among the Picts. J. P. Mallory, dating the migrations earlier, to around 4000 BCE, and putting less insistence on their violent or quasi-military nature, essentially modified Gimbutas' theory.



The Gimbutas-Mallory Kurgan hypothesis seeks to explain the Indo-European language expansion by a succession of migrations from the Pontic-Caspian steppe, or, more specifically and according to the revised version, to the area encompassed by the Sredny Stog culture (ca. 4500 BCE). This hypothesis is compatible with the argument that the PIE homeland must have been larger,[4] because the "Neolithic creolisation hypothesis" allows the Pontic-Caspian region to have been part of PIE territory.

Considering the "replacement" of male lines said to be seen in Europe, caused by the 3 bronze age lineages that are assumed to have emanated from the steppes and associated with some IE diffusion into Europe,

whether Gimbutus' theory of matriarchal native European societies getting replaced by patriarchal oryan ones from steppe becomes secondary to the fact that whatever Y was in Europe got significantly replaced.

Although Jobling & co are being polite and saying the incoming replacement lineages merely outcompeted/had something more to offer, I notice they did some storytelling in their previous deprecated study too, concluding neolithic ME farmers accounting for 80% of European Y by being "seduced by native European hunter-gathering females". Storytelling and excuses are always after the fact. The fact is that their own argument is one of significant replacement of existing European male lineages by the appearance of 3 new paternal lineages. Female hypergamy seems subordinated to the oryan fantasy of Oryan males stealing females. Behaviourally more reminiscent of the history in the Italic setting of Sabine women vs incoming Roman male stealing them, though that of course is deemed an intra-IE skirmish/replacement (plus the forebear of Roman religion remains a Sabine IIRC).



en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rape_of_the_Sabine_Women

The Rape of the Sabine Women (Latin: Sabinae raptae) is an episode in the legendary history of Rome, traditionally dated to 750 BC,[1] in which the first generation of Roman men acquired wives for themselves from the neighboring Sabine families. The English word rape is a conventional translation of the Latin raptio, which in this context means "abduction" rather than its prevalent modern meaning in English language of sexual violation. Recounted by Livy and Plutarch (Parallel Lives II, 15 and 19), it provided a subject for Renaissance and post-Renaissance works of art that ...

A most telling part IMO was:



nature.com/ncomms/2015/150519/ncomms8152/full/ncomms8152.html

the Turks and Greeks show evidence of general expansion, with increased growth rate around 14 KYA. (KYA = thousand years ago) A different pattern is seen in the remaining majority (13/17) of populations, which share remarkably similar histories featuring a minimum effective population size ~2.1–4.2 KYA (considering the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) reported in Supplementary Table 4), followed by expansion to the present. Considering only these 13 populations, the only significant geographical correlation is of decreasing diversity in the number of polymorphic sites from east to west

I.e. Greeks not included in the 13 populations whose histories are explained by the 3 paternal lineages spreading in Europe in its Bronze Age, which 3 lineages - via reference to the other study - are thought to have entered Europe from the steppe in a "massive migration" and which itself is proposed (by means of reference to David Anthony's 2007 book) to be connected to the steppe origin of "at least some IE languages of Europe".

And R1a's pre-Bronze Age presence (7300 years BP) in Europe in Figure 3 at the link is also relevant, especially as its presence in Europe predates the range of estimates for the PIE/Urheimat of the Kurgan (steppe) hypothesis.