08-24-2007, 09:31 PM
On the Spot - Tavleen Singh
Subservience has always been a reality
Thursday, August 23, 2007 9:38:16 IST
The BJP should have been supportive of the nuclear deal but managed to end up on the other side
for :
Political developments in the capital are moving with such speed that it has become risky to leave the environs of Delhi if you are in the business of writing political columns. I returned last week after a short sojourn away to find everyone discussing the imminent demise of Dr. Manmohan Singhâs government with the certainty that it was going, going gone and speculation only on when. The funny thing is that nobody seems happier about this than the Congress Party itself. In a political crisis the hardest thing to find is someone who tells you anything worthwhile on the record so you will have to take my word for it when I tell you that I have my information from what we in the trade call âhigh level sourcesâ.
The Karat school
When I heard rumours of the government falling the first thing I did was call someone in government to confirm if he believed he was on the verge of losing his job. He said, âYes. It seems certain that the government will fall but we arenât worried about elections. We will do much better than people are giving us credit for. I think we could get more than 170 seats next time so we will be the single largest partyâ.
He added that in his view the Marxists were going to do worse than they thought but were bringing things to a head because of the impression among those who belong to the Prakash Karat school of thinking that a third front government could become possible after the next election. There are wiser people on the Left who believe it would be a mistake to plunge the country into political instability by forcing an early election but the Karat school allegedly believes that the Left will be in a position to dictate who will be Prime Minister next time. Divisions in the politburo on this point led to the CPM calling a meeting of its central committee which is expected to make the final decision on whether the Marxists will withdraw their support to the government. This would mean either elections in winter or a minority government that could limp along till some time next year.
An interesting aspect of this political crisis is that the once mighty Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been reduced to playing a walk-on part in the drama. In the bitter words of a BJP friend, âWe have been reduced to being the B team of the Marxists. The sad thing is that the nuclear deal is in Indiaâs national interest. You only need to see how angry China and Pakistan are to gauge thisâ. The BJP which opened the way to closer relations with the United States should have been supportive of the nuclear deal but managed to end up on the other side. And, is now being swept along in the momentum of the Leftâs objections at a time when it seems unprepared to face the electorate. Recent elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar showed that the party has failed to improve its appeal with voters and according to the partyâs own assessments is likely to face an anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. It barely exists in southern and eastern India and is fighting with the Shiv Sena in the west. Gujarat remains a state that the BJP could win but this is not going to make the difference the party needs if it wants to dictate who our next Prime Minister will be.
So the only beneficiary of the government falling is likely to be Congress. Newspaper polls indicate that the Prime Minister is being seen as the hero and a man ready to sacrifice his government for what he believes to be the national interest. Prakash Karat is being seen as a bully and a traitor. Rarely, before have there been so many analysts in the national media attacking the Marxists for what is seen as their subservience to China.
A Left Centre?
This subservience has always been a reality but this is the first national political crisis in which it has been on full display. The charge that the nuclear deal compromises Indiaâs âsovereigntyâ because of limits on testing and reprocessing is not something that bothers urban, educated, middle class Indians and in rural parts the deal is not an issue. So what exactly does Prakash Karat seek to achieve by bringing down the government? The only reason that makes sense is that the Marxists could be under the impression that fresh general elections will throw up a coalition of small, regional parties who will be dependant on Marxist support and easier to control than Congress. Ever since Dr. Manmohan Singh became prime minister he has been ordered around by his Leftist allies as if they were running the government and not him. If he has finally taken a stand against their bullying tactics he has done so over a matter of foreign policy that he considers vital for Indiaâs national interest. He is not in a position to back down now and the Marxists are not in a position to back down either without ending up with large dollops of egg on their face. It is a situation of their own creation and if voters respond by reducing their seats in the next Lok Sabha they will get what most people view as a comeuppance that has been a long time coming.
Subservience has always been a reality
Thursday, August 23, 2007 9:38:16 IST
The BJP should have been supportive of the nuclear deal but managed to end up on the other side
for :
Political developments in the capital are moving with such speed that it has become risky to leave the environs of Delhi if you are in the business of writing political columns. I returned last week after a short sojourn away to find everyone discussing the imminent demise of Dr. Manmohan Singhâs government with the certainty that it was going, going gone and speculation only on when. The funny thing is that nobody seems happier about this than the Congress Party itself. In a political crisis the hardest thing to find is someone who tells you anything worthwhile on the record so you will have to take my word for it when I tell you that I have my information from what we in the trade call âhigh level sourcesâ.
The Karat school
When I heard rumours of the government falling the first thing I did was call someone in government to confirm if he believed he was on the verge of losing his job. He said, âYes. It seems certain that the government will fall but we arenât worried about elections. We will do much better than people are giving us credit for. I think we could get more than 170 seats next time so we will be the single largest partyâ.
He added that in his view the Marxists were going to do worse than they thought but were bringing things to a head because of the impression among those who belong to the Prakash Karat school of thinking that a third front government could become possible after the next election. There are wiser people on the Left who believe it would be a mistake to plunge the country into political instability by forcing an early election but the Karat school allegedly believes that the Left will be in a position to dictate who will be Prime Minister next time. Divisions in the politburo on this point led to the CPM calling a meeting of its central committee which is expected to make the final decision on whether the Marxists will withdraw their support to the government. This would mean either elections in winter or a minority government that could limp along till some time next year.
An interesting aspect of this political crisis is that the once mighty Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been reduced to playing a walk-on part in the drama. In the bitter words of a BJP friend, âWe have been reduced to being the B team of the Marxists. The sad thing is that the nuclear deal is in Indiaâs national interest. You only need to see how angry China and Pakistan are to gauge thisâ. The BJP which opened the way to closer relations with the United States should have been supportive of the nuclear deal but managed to end up on the other side. And, is now being swept along in the momentum of the Leftâs objections at a time when it seems unprepared to face the electorate. Recent elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar showed that the party has failed to improve its appeal with voters and according to the partyâs own assessments is likely to face an anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. It barely exists in southern and eastern India and is fighting with the Shiv Sena in the west. Gujarat remains a state that the BJP could win but this is not going to make the difference the party needs if it wants to dictate who our next Prime Minister will be.
So the only beneficiary of the government falling is likely to be Congress. Newspaper polls indicate that the Prime Minister is being seen as the hero and a man ready to sacrifice his government for what he believes to be the national interest. Prakash Karat is being seen as a bully and a traitor. Rarely, before have there been so many analysts in the national media attacking the Marxists for what is seen as their subservience to China.
A Left Centre?
This subservience has always been a reality but this is the first national political crisis in which it has been on full display. The charge that the nuclear deal compromises Indiaâs âsovereigntyâ because of limits on testing and reprocessing is not something that bothers urban, educated, middle class Indians and in rural parts the deal is not an issue. So what exactly does Prakash Karat seek to achieve by bringing down the government? The only reason that makes sense is that the Marxists could be under the impression that fresh general elections will throw up a coalition of small, regional parties who will be dependant on Marxist support and easier to control than Congress. Ever since Dr. Manmohan Singh became prime minister he has been ordered around by his Leftist allies as if they were running the government and not him. If he has finally taken a stand against their bullying tactics he has done so over a matter of foreign policy that he considers vital for Indiaâs national interest. He is not in a position to back down now and the Marxists are not in a position to back down either without ending up with large dollops of egg on their face. It is a situation of their own creation and if voters respond by reducing their seats in the next Lok Sabha they will get what most people view as a comeuppance that has been a long time coming.