Geopolitics

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[url="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/01/opinion/01kristof.html"]China, Concubines and Google[/url]

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One of the most important diplomatic relationships in the world is between China and the U.S., and it is deteriorating sharply. What’s more, many experts believe it will get considerably worse over the coming year — and one reason may be that China’s leaders seem to feel as if they have their backs to the wall.



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That’s one of the reasons China is adamantly refusing to let the renminbi rise further. There’s no question that China’s undervalued currency irresponsibly creates global imbalances — but if you’re in the Zhongnanhai leadership compound, your concern is just staying in power.



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“Patriotic education” and carefully nurtured nationalism mean that in many disputes between China and the West, the Chinese people and the Chinese government stand together. We in the West see human rights in Tibet as a moral imperative and a rising renminbi as an economic imperative; Chinese citizens and leaders alike see these issues as part of a 200-year-long string of Western imperialist efforts to bully or dismember a fragile China.



But the Internet is different. The Politburo doesn’t want a free Internet, and the people do.



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The mood among young Chinese reminds me of Taiwan or South Korea or Indonesia in the 1980s, when an increasingly educated middle class — beneficiaries of enlightened economic policies of oppressive governments — grew to feel stifled and patronized by their governments. Eventually, in each case they upended one-party rule and achieved a democracy.



Chinese leaders surely fear that parallel, and that is likely to be one of the reasons they are cracking down frantically on dissent. But again, all this may be a sign of weakness, not strength.



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