2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Games Paswan plays </b>
LInk
Manoj Chaurasia
PATNA, Oct. 13: Almost all the UPA constituents, Mrs Sonia Gandhi's Congress to Mr Lalu Prasad's RJD are busy trying to save the government. Lok Janshakti Party president Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, a coalition partner known for his unpredictable political behaviour, is, however, singing a different tune.

"The LJP will go it alone in the next Lok Sabha polls." Mr Paswan said as much after Mrs Gandhi, in her veiled attack of the Left, described the opponents of the Indo-US nuclear deal as the "enemies of national development" at a rally in Haryana on Sunday.

Mr Paswan, whose party has lent its support to the UPA government, is one of the Cabinet ministers in the government heading the key ministries of chemicals and fertilizer, and steel. The LJP has only four members in the Lok Sabha against the RJD's 23.

Political experts read "shrewdness" into Mr Paswan's threats of not being part of the UPA in the next polls. Experts say<b> Mr Paswan's latest move is a part of his gameplan to distance himself from the ruling coalition with time to spare so that he does not invite censure for joining the next ruling combination, in the event of the UPA losing the election.

A shrewd politician, Mr Paswan holds the reputation among his colleagues of never being out of power.</b> He has joined one government after another at the Centre, including the BJP, which he now routinely calls "communal", since he was first elected to the Lok Sabha in 1977, riding the nationwide anti-Congress wave. Mr Paswan's fate, as Lok Sabha records show, took an unexpected leap when the National Front government headed by Mr VP Singh came to power at the Centre on 2 December, 1989.

Mr Paswan, then a Janata Dal leader in the good books of Mr Prasad heading the Janata Dal government in Bihar, had been made labour and welfare minister in the VP Singh government.

Then he became the railway and parliamentary affairs minister under the United Front government, first headed by Mr HD Deve Gowda and then by Mr IK Gujral. The UF government had come to power on 1 June, 1996 after an unceremonious exit of the Vajpayee government that lasted first for 13 days and then 13 months as no "secular" party, not even Mr Paswan's, wanted to lend its support to the "communal" party. When the Vajpayee-led coalition government came to power for the third time in 1999 with a comfortable majority, Mr Paswan joined the government where he held such portfolios as communication and coal.

He quit the government in April, 2002 after differences cropped up between them over allocation of "insignificant" portfolios, though his official reason was the government's failure to handle the Gujarat communal riots
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<b>Paswan wants to ally with Congress in Gujarat </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Paswan said it was time Gujarat saw a change from the BJP rule as the state had stagnated on the development front in the last 10 years.

'Where is the development that the BJP is harping on,' he asked.
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[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Early poll will help Congress </b>
Pioneer.com
Arun Nehru
Political assessments given a few weeks ago had indicated that the next general election would take place in December 2007 or February 2008. The fact that the Congress and the CPI(M) are trading charges on the India-US nuclear deal does not surprise anyone. I think, in all this confusion, the two big casualties are the 'Third Front' and the Left parties, in terms of the former's formation and the latter's electoral fortunes.

<b>It is clear that the battle will be between the Congress, which will head the UPA, and the BJP, which will lead the NDA.</b> In all this, Ms Mayawati and the BSP will be dangerous floaters which can align with anyone -- the party can win more than 50 seats. The allies of the Congress and the BJP in both UPA and the NDA can travel in any direction, as numbers will determine the alliance which will finally govern India.

<b>My assessment is that the Congress will emerge as the single largest group with 180 to 190 seats, with a gain of 40 to 50 seats. The BJP will win between 80 and 90 seats, and will thus lose 40 to 50 seats.</b> As things stand, the current allies of the Congress -- the DMK, the RJD and the Left -- stand to lose between 40 and 50 seats. But all of the BJP's potential allies -- the ADMK, the TDP and the JD(U) -- stand to gain seats, and the numbers could well be between 25 and 30. The Left, with 40 to 45 seats, may get isolated unless it goes back to the Congress.

I think the role of BSP leader Mayawati will be decisive. She can travel in either direction and is not burdened by vote-bank issues. In the 2004 general election, the BSP fought 435 seats (the Congress contested 417 seats, while the BJP 364) and secured 5.33 per cent of the vote. In contrast, the CPI(M) got 5.66 per cent, while the CPI received 1.41 per cent.

Elections are never easy. However, as things stand, the Congress has the initial advantage. But things can change as the Assembly election in Gujarat is due in December this year. It will be interesting to see voter trends in the State, and I would not be surprised to see Chief Minister Narendra Modi sweeping the State election, and having a split verdict in the Lok Sabha poll. We may well see two separate verdicts for the State and Central Governments, as coalition confusion cannot continue in this manner.

I don't think elections will really surprise anyone as basically the needs of the future cannot be met by the politics of the past. The Left may have its own compulsions, but it avoids the reality of reforms and economic growth. It refuses to look at China, Russia and Vietnam, and instead revives the arguments of the Cold War. In a century devoted to global advances on trade and commerce, the Left is thinking of state and party-controlled politics. This is not working either in West Bengal or in Kerala.

There are sound arguments that the benefits of the current growth are not evenly distributed. Clearly, it is a part of governance to make this possible. But does any country in the world, or any political system, have a better alternative strategy? The fact is, the Left, despite all its political muscle and dedicated party cadre, will lose seats in Kerala and West Bengal, as it ignores the reality and the aspirations of the people by stalling economic growth. I have had the privilege of working closely with Mr Harkishen Singh Surjit and Mr Jyoti Basu. They were men of exceptional integrity and ability. I hope that they are well enough to exert influence. They, along with Mr Prakash Karat and Mr Sitaram Yechury, will have to salvage the situation, as the Left has much to lose.

The situation in West Bengal is deteriorating, as the Nandigram wound continues to fester. The death of Rizwanur Rehman, who married the daughter of high-profile Ashok Todi, is threatening to engulf the Left Front Government in the State. Every State can face similar situations, but these become issues when political credibility is low.

We are all looking at coalition structures for the future. We have had coalition structures now for close to two decades starting from our chaotic Government in 1989. And now I wonder whether the electorate is moving towards greater stability and a majority Government. This could become apparent in the next two elections. We are looking at a change in the outlook of voters, and I think the Congress and the BJP can gain because of this change.

The talks between the Congress and the Left will continue and I feel rather sad that the Left with a five per cent vote-bank is holding the Government to ransom on the nuclear issue. The spin-off of this will have an impact on the economy. We are poised for record growth, and have to sustain our efforts and legislate for the future. In this situation the attitude of the Left is not to our advantage. We are producing wealth for the first time by productivity; and, while we can argue on the method of distribution and greater allocations to the weaker sections, we cannot revert to the past and allow vested interests to control the economy. The Left should not isolate itself on the economic front. It should look at the Left parties in China, Russia and Vietnam and their policies on trade.

<b>My personal assessment is that the Congress will be losing a window of opportunity if it misses the February-March 2008 election, as anti-incumbency trends have not yet settled in fully in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. And these States can well determine the future of the next coalition. The Congress, if it reaches the target of 180-190 seats in the election, will have little difficulty in forming the Government, as all alliances are flexible. The Congress, after the initial confusion, has handled the Ram Setu issue well, and the father-son combination of Mr HD Deve Gowda and Mr HD Kumaraswamy in Karnataka has given an equal opportunity to the Congress and the BJP to gain an advantage.</b>

Elections are never easy to forecast, but I see greater stability in the future after elections are over in early 2008, and I see increased economic growth and productivity. I would be surprised if anyone in the market either here or abroad will have any disagreement on this.
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[Guest]

<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> I think full marks to Ramana for the title '2009' though in between the prospects for '08 looked like but Left does not want elections till it consolidates it's position and in this allies r w/ Left and not Cong:
कहीं चुनाव न हो जाए
[Sunday, October 14, 2007 03:31:22 pm ]

सहीराम

कांग्रेस वालों ने कहा -हम चुनाव के लिए तैयार हैं। हम अमेरिका से बिजली ला रहे हैं और जनता हमारे साथ है। सर्वे वाले बता रहे हैं कि इस समय हमें अपने विरोधियों पर बढ़त हासिल है। अपने बूते चुनाव जीत गए तो हमें सहयोगियों की जरूरत भी नहीं रह जाएगी। फिर हम मनमर्जी से सरकार चला पाएंगे। पर अगर हमने अभी चुनाव कराया तो विरोधियों को यह कहने का मौका मिल जाएगा कि दूसरों के साथ मिलकर सरकार चलाना हमारे डीएनए में ही नहीं है। यह आरोप लगेगा कि हम गठबंधन की सरकार चला ही नहीं सकते। जी, यह आरोप तो लगेगा।

कांग्रेसी कह रहे थे -वैसे तो हमारे विरोधियों के पास कोई मुद्दा नहीं है। पर अब रामसेतु का मुद्दा जरूर आ गया है। यह भावनात्मक मुद्दा है। यह आस्था का मुद्दा है। हालांकि हमने कोर्ट में एफिडेविट देनेवाले दो अफसरों को निलंबित कर दिया है। पर बीजेपी वाले तो रामसेतु के मुद्दे को अयोध्या जैसा मुद्दा बना देना चाहते हैं। वे यह भी कहेंगे कि जिसको राम प्यारा नहीं, उसे वोट मत दो। वे कहेंगे -जो राम का नहीं, वो काम का नहीं। जी, यह तो कहेंगे।

कांग्रेसी कह रहे थे -वैसे तो हमारे विरोधियों के पास हमारे खिलाफ कहने को कुछ भी नहीं है। पर अब महंगाई का मुद्दा आ गया है। प्याज 30 रुपये किलो बिक रहा है। लोग कह रहे हैं कि नमक-प्याज से रोटी खाना भी मुश्किल हो गया है। दाल 60 रुपये किलो बिक रही है। लोग कह रहे हैं कि दाल-रोटी खाना भी मुश्किल हो गया है। हमारे विरोधी तो यही कहेंगे न कि कांग्रेस आई, महंगाई लाई। जी, यह तो कहेंगे।

कांग्रेसी कह रहे थे -वैसे तो हमारे राज में कोई घोटाला नहीं हुआ। पर अब यह गेहूं घोटाला आ गया है। अभी तक तो किसानों की आत्महत्या का ही मामला था। हालांकि हमारे प्रधानमंत्री विदर्भ गए हैं। किसानों के लिए पैकेज की घोषणा भी की है। पर लगता है किसानों को आत्महत्या करने में मजा आने लगा है। वे आत्महत्या करना छोड़ ही नहीं रहे। ऊपर से यह गेहूं का घोटाला आ गया। हालांकि गेहूं का आयात करना जरूरी था। पर हमारे विरोधी तो यही कहेंगे न कि देश के किसानों को गेहूं का दाम मिला आठ सौ रुपये क्विंटल और दूसरे मुल्क वालों को मिला सोलह सौ रुपये क्विंटल। जी, यह तो कहेंगे।

कांग्रेसी कह रहे थे -वैसे तो माहौल हमारे पक्ष में है। पर क्या सरकार किसी तरह बचाई नहीं जा सकती। चुनाव न हों तो अच्छा। जी, अच्छा ही रहेगा।

बीजेपी वाले कह रहे थे -मध्यावधि चुनाव तो होकर रहेगा। कम्युनिस्ट ज्यादा दिन तक इस सरकार को समर्थन नहीं देंगे। कांग्रेस गठबंधन सरकार चला ही नहीं सकती। उसके खून में ही नहीं है। कांग्रेसी राज के दिन पूरे हुए। अब हमारी बारी है। हम चुनाव के लिए तैयार हैं। हमारे पास तो अब रामसेतु का मुद्दा भी है। हालांकि हमारे विरोधी कहेंगे कि हम तो राममंदिर भी नहीं बनवा पाए थे और सेतुसमुद्रम परियोजना भी हमारे ही राज में बनी थी। ऐसे में डर यही है कि रामसेतु का मुद्दा अयोध्यावाला मुद्दा न बना तो? जी, यह डर तो है।

बीजेपी वाले कह रहे थे -हमारे शासनवाले राज्यों में एंटी-इंकम्बेंसी का मामला भी है। एक गुजरात से उम्मीद थी-सो वहां भी मार-काट मची है। कहीं पटेल, तो कहीं कोली नाराज हैं। जी, यह तो सच है। वे कह रहे थे -हमारे कोई नए दोस्त भी नहीं बन रहे। जेडी-एस जैसे जो दोस्त थे, उनसे भी कुट्टी हो गई। एक जयललिता से उम्मीद है, पर उन पर भरोसा कैसे किया जाए? फिर हमारे यहां प्रधानमंत्री पद के इतने दावेदार हो गए हैं -अटलजी तो अटल हैं ही। आडवाणी जी परमानेंट प्रतीक्षारत हैं। पर अब तो नरेंद्र मोदी भी अखाड़े में आ गए। जनता में यह संदेश जा रहा है कि पार्टी में भारी कलह है। ऐसे में सरकारविरोधी जन असंतोष का लाभ न मिला तो? जी, यह खतरा तो है।

बीजेपी वाले कह रहे थे -तो मध्यावधि चुनाव होना जरूरी थोड़े ही है। जरूरी थोड़े ही है कि कम्युनिस्ट समर्थन वापस ले ही लें, सरकार गिर ही जाए। मध्यावधि चुनाव न हों तो अच्छा है।

minimal translation:
forget elections.

[Guest]

The political scene is slowly getting cleared up for the next general election , whether it will be mid term or on full term is yet to be decided. According to the latest media reports the UPA Government may go slow on the India-ISA nuclear deal and in the process ensure continued support of the Left parties. This may carry the present government till the next elections.

However, the process of lining up of the political parties has already started and although at present there are two combinations the NDA and the UPA , a third combination cannot be ruled out totally. If this third combination do come up it will most probably be headed by the BSP. All the major political parties will try to ensure the votes of the minorities by proving all types of promises and facilities to them. The assessment of Shri Arun Nehru appears to be quite realistic.

[Guest]

<!--emo&:blink:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blink.gif' /><!--endemo--> Nuke U-turn may cost Congress dear
16 Oct, 2007, 0010 hrs IST, TNN

NEW DELHI: The Congress’ bid to save the UPA government by risking the Indo-US nuclear deal, that the Prime Minister described as “historic” in Parliament, has not just cast a long shadow on the authority of the ruling regime. It also raises serious questions about the response of the young voters to the turn of events.

With the Left being viewed as ‘obstructionist’ by sections of the middle class and the youth, the party could be seen as succumbing to their pressure to stay in power.

That the Congress is already wary of being seen as a party which has buckled under the Left’s diktat is evident in its repeated utterances that there has been “no U-turn” on the deal. However, this rhetoric is not being backed by UPA allies. Parties such as the DMK are already taking credit for having ensured that the government is not sacrificed for the sake of the deal. DMK chief and Tamil Nadu chief minister M Karunanidhi told a television channel on Sunday that he had doubts about the deal even before the Left raised its points of opposition.

The veteran leader was quoted as saying: “Frankly the deal is not important, the government is. I did have doubts about the deal. So I spoke for the Left. I also fought for the Left. I shared the communists’ ideas with the PM and Sonia Gandhi.” His statements point to an internal grouping within the UPA-Left to overrule the backers of the deal. Public admission of such developments cannot be comforting to a government whose authority seems depleted after having given up the deal.

The development could not have come at a more inopportune time for the party. The party has till the other day been claiming that the array in the ruling alliance will ensure the defeat of the Opposition, which is in disarray. With components of the ruling alliance indicating that the coordination between them over the nuclear deal will extend to other critical issues, the government could find the going tough.

Many in the Congress are blaming the government leadership for the party finding itself in an embarrassing corner. According to them, the “macho” assertions — the “put up or shut up” statement from the leadership — contributed to the worsening of the relationship between the allies.

The government leadership also laid a lot of premium on the Delhi balcony seats’ theory that the Left, which cannot face an election, will ultimately fall in line. This proved to be wrong with Mr Prakash Karat sticking to his “no nuke deal” stand.

The Congress’ meek surrender to the biases of the Left will inhibit the party’s plans to project itself as one that has given a different governance paradigm.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Nuclear deal back to haunt Govt </b>
Pioneer.com
Santanu Banerjee | New Delhi
Left shifts gear, targets price rise
The threat to the Government isn't over yet though the UPA may have decided to go slow on the India-US nuclear deal.  

"Unless Congress-led UPA takes steps to contain price rise, the Left would be forced to review its support to the Government once again, warned senior Left leader and CPI general secretary AB Bardhan on Tuesday.

Having scored victory over the nuclear deal, the CPI on Tuesday warned the UPA that "<b>the Left cannot anymore tolerate Government's complacency on the price rise issue which has already made the life of common man miserable."</b>

Addressing a protest rally here, Bardhan said: "The Government had shown some sensibility on the issue whether survival of Government is important or the nuclear deal, but the continuous and unchecked price spiral has pushed the situation back to square one."
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Lets see when Govt will increase oil price and wait where inflation will go.
Today Oil price was $88 a barrel , it is expected to touch $100 a barrel by end of this year.
Iran is not producing enough and Russia is making world to do tap dance. Oil price will be controlled by Russia , unless and until US start driling Alaska.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><i> Analyst Phil Flynn of Alaron said, "The reason the market is strong is concern over increasing tensions between Turkey and the Kurds."

The price increase followed news of rising conflict close to major crude oil pipelines in northern Iraq, where Turkey has been combating Kurdish rebels. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has said he is willing to defy the international community's warning against crossing the boarder into Iraq, and is ready to take action against the region where the Kurdish Workers' Party, an armed militant group, presumably is located.</i> <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Rattled Congress fumes over Karat meeting UNPA leaders </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
As a weary Left gave expression to its suspicion of the UPA Government's approach towards the nuclear deal impasse by moving closer to the Third Front, alarm bells have started ringing in the Congress camp.

Former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and convener of the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA) Chandrababu Naidu on Thursday gave a hint about the realignment of political forces in the days to come when he told mediapersons that the Third Front constituents and the Left parties were "together on the issue inside and outside Parliament".

Talking in the language of the Left, Naidu asked the Government not to go ahead with the deal against the "mood of Parliament".

Coming after two days of hectic consultations with senior Left leaders in New Delhi, Naidu's remarks assumed a special significance as the UNPA had till recently demanding setting up of a Joint Parliamentary Committee on the nuclear deal in tune with the BJP.

The new stance is almost similar to that of the Left parties that have been talking of the Government honouring the sense of the Parliament and showed that they do not want to be seen in the company of BJP.

<b>It is not a coincidence that the shift came on a day when the BJP said that it would press for voting on nuclear deal issue if the Parliament is convened. </b>

Reports had it that plans are afoot for a brief winter session soon after Diwali. Equally significant is the fact that Naidu's remarks came after talks with Left leaders--CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat on Tuesday and his party colleague Sitaram Yechury, along with CPI general secretary AB Bardhan and secretary D Raja on Wednesday.

Reports had it that plans are afoot for a brief winter session soon after Diwali. Equally significant is the fact that Naidu's remarks came after talks with Left leaders--CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat on Tuesday and his party colleague Sitaram Yechury, along with CPI general secretary AB Bardhan and secretary D Raja on Wednesday.
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RSP leader TJ Chandrachudan in Thiruvananthapuram on Thursday clearly articulated the Left's suspicion of the Congress stratagem when he said that the UPA Government appeared reluctant of giving in on the nuclear deal issue.

<b>Chandrachudan, who is on the 15-member UPA-Left panel that failed to resolve the impasse at its last meeting on October 22, said: "The meetings are progressing like parallel rail tracks with no meeting point."</b>

He alleged that the Congress leadership was not showing statesmanship to overcome the crisis and continued to insist that it was a diplomatic, honourable and scientific deal from which the country stood to benefit.
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[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+Aug 21 2007, 01:47 AM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ Aug 21 2007, 01:47 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->There is something rotten in the deal. Pran Chopra's article points to it and MMS making allegations of havans etc show that the discourse is being diverted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He is trying to say Hindus are bad, Hindus are against. Don't forget Muslims have first right and he himslf is proud Sikh. Only problem he had with Hindus.
<b>He is a mean man inside, his outside is just a fascade</b>.

Deal is bad, I don't care who pulls the rug. I don't mind if it means mid-term poll. Atleast lot of black money will recirculate in market.
[right][snapback]72289[/snapback][/right]
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I too am getting similar thoughts. He is on some trip, and doesn't care about anyone else. His exterior is just facade.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Prepare for snap poll: Karat </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
Renews ultimatum to Govt on N-deal
After setting the December-end deadline for the UPA Government to wind up the India-US civil nuclear agreement, CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat has asked the political parties to be ready for mid-term polls if the Government wanted to snap ties with the Left on this issue.   

Speaking in tandem, CPI general secretary AB Bardhan has also asked the Government to immediately scrap the deal.

Asserting that the Left was opposed to the nuclear deal and India forging a strategic alliance with the US, Karat told India Today that, "If this is the issue they (UPA) want to break up with us on, all political parties need to be prepared for elections any time."

He was responding to a question whether the CPI(M) was prepared for polls if the Government went ahead with the nuclear deal.

Noting that the nuclear deal debate in Parliament "clearly established" that a majority of the MPs were opposed to the 123 Agreement "in some way or the other", Karat said considering this, "it will be better for the Government to not proceed with the deal."

Last week, addressing the Delhi State party conference, Karat has said that the Left had provided limited concession to the UPA Government to hold talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) because it did not want to destabilise the Government ahead of the Gujarat Assembly polls. He had also asked the Government to stop all future negotiations on the deal by December end.
...........
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Kura Karat is ready for poll and red carpet for dear chini bhai as they did for 1962 and East India Company.
We know current government is weak and everyone busy collecting money and frequent flier miles,
So who will march inside India first, Jihadi from East or West or March from North
Or all three parties will try to grab whatevern they can.
I hope plane is ready for Italy.

[ramana]

Three reports from Deccan Chronicle, 20 Dec., 2007

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Maya to make UP out of AP
 

Hyderabad, Dec. 20: The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, Ms Mayawati, has deputed two top leaders to find out ways to expand the strength of her Bahujan Samaj Party in Andhra Pradesh.  This is part of the BSP’s efforts to seize power at the Centre in the 2009 polls by projecting Ms Mayawati as Prime Minister. It also has ambitious plans to come to power in AP. The BSP general secretary, Mr Mahesh Arya, and the Rajya Sabha member, Mr Bilihari Sri Babu, toured the state extensively.

A 10-member team of intelligence officers from UP police is also in the state gauging the political mood. “The response in the coastal districts was tremendous,” said Mr Arya, who is in charge of BSP affairs in the state. “We got three lakh members in just six months. It will reach 10 lakh by next March.”  <b>He said the BSP would contest all the 294 Assembly and 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in the next elections.  “We are going to spring some surprises here,” said Mr N. Surya Prakash, BSP State wing president. “Many big leaders vexed with the Congress and the Telugu Desam may join us.” </b>Ms Mayawati has also allowed the party to take up the Telangana issue in real earnest. “The TRS and its leadership betrayed Telangana people and they are looking at the BSP as an alternative,” said Mr Arya.

“We have got the support of artists and intellectuals of Telangana.” Balladeer Gaddar participated in the BSP’s Jogipet meeting and expressed his unhappiness over the style of functioning of  the TRS chief, Mr K. Chandrasekhar Rao. The BSP is trying to field Gaddar against KCR.

Mr Surya Prakash claimed that some powerful Kapu leaders had also been making overtures towards the BSP. “The only thing that is stopping them from announcing their support openly is the Chiranjeevi factor,” he said. <b>The BSP was ready to offer the Chief Minister post to Mr Chiranjeevi if he joined the party, Mr Surya Prakash added. Ms Mayawati is visiting the state on January 5 to hold talks with “important” leaders. Sources said Chiranjeevi may also have a meeting with her. The party is also planning to hold a mammoth public meeting on January 6.</b>

<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

and

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Cong quandary: Who for PM? </b>
 

New Delhi, Dec. 20: The BJP’s decision to project Mr L.K. Advani as the next Prime Minister has placed Congress leaders in a quandary as <b>they are not sure whether party president Sonia Gandhi will project Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for a second term. It is also not certain whether she herself or her son Rahul Gandhi will now contend for the top government post as and when the general elections are held.</b>

<b>Congress leaders are increasingly of the view that a mid-term poll cannot be avoided, and May 2008 currently is the time schedule being given out by party MPs informally.</b> The Left parties also admit that the first possible date for a general election will be May 2008 if the government operationalises the nuclear deal, as expected, by early next year.

Congress leaders point out that the party will risk a mid term election if it is confident that the nuclear deal will go through. <b>“We do not want to be in a situation where we have neither the government nor the nuclear deal,” </b>a senior leader said. In the party’s assessment, the Left Front is not likely to back off and will not continue with the support if the government decides to go ahead with the nuclear deal.  At the same time, there are many leaders at the top level in the Congress who do not want to break relations with the Left completely. <b>They admit, however, that if the government falls on the nuclear issue the Left could be persuaded to support the Congress post poll only if Dr Manmohan Singh is not brought back as Prime Minister.</b>

This, the sources said, immediately makes the position of Dr Singh during and after the next elections “vulnerable”. <b>The Left parties make no secret of the fact that they regard the Prime Minister as the architect of the new strategic alliance with the US with several senior leaders, in particular, disposed more kindly towards Mrs Sonia Gandhi and minister for external affairs Pranab Mukherjee. </b>During the negotiations on the nuclear deal between the Congress and the Left, Mr Mukherjee has been able to project himself to the latter as a “reasonable man”. <b>The choice before Dr Singh, according to his own party colleagues, is to remain Prime Minister till 2009 and forego the nuclear deal, or go ahead with his commitment to US President George W. Bush and then wait for circumstances to catapult him into the position after an early poll.</b>

The Congress is mentally prepared for a mid-term election and sources said, “We will be very surprised if the government completes its full term.” <b>The party is not keen to face a mid-term election on its own, and will prefer to contest as part of the United Progressive Alliance. The only addition, party leaders expect, is the Trinamul Congress with Ms Mamata Banerjee having given sufficient indications of her willingness to join the UPA for the next polls. </b>Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati is seen as an unpredictable entity, and at best a post-poll partner.

However, <b>the Congress and the BJP both expect the BSP to play a decisive role in the formation of the next government with Ms Mayawati seeking lucrative ministerial posts for her party at the Centre.</b> The Congress grapevine has been told that Mrs Gandhi will not become the Prime Minister if the party comes back into power. <b>Her preference would be Mr Rahul Gandhi who, however, has not impressed senior party leaders with his few public appearances.</b> “He needs time,” is the general consensus although those within the charmed circle claim that he “has the ability to learn on the job”. <b>Dr Singh </b>still remains Mrs Gandhi’s favoured leader outside her family, but unlike after the last elections his <b>popularity even within the UPA has waned</b>.

<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

and

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->‘Return to basics for BJP’
 

New Delhi, Dec. 20: An editorial in the forthcoming issue of People’s Democracy, the CPI(M)’s weekly journal, says that the anointing of Mr L.K. Advani as the BJP’s candidate for Prime Minister is central to the “return to the basics” strategy employed by the RSS-BJP combine and its affiliates to arouse communal passions and consolidate the Hindu votebank.

“The effort is to recall the memory of the infamous rathyatra led by Advani in the early ’90s preceding the demolition of the Babri Masjid, with the hope that this will help consolidate the Hindu votebank. The BJP’s hardcore Hindutva campaign in the recent elections in Gujarat led by Narendra Modi and the venomous speeches of their leaders, highlighting the three core issues of Hindutva agenda — construction of the temple at Ayodhya, uniform civil code, and the abolition of Article 370 — in the Himachal Pradesh election campaign only confirms this,” the editorial says in the December 23 issue of the publication.

“As the next general elections draw closer, such aggressive communal polarisation will be on the rise,” the editorial, titled “BJP’s return to its basics”, will also say. The CPI(M) believes that the façade of coalition dharma, which was frequently articulated by the erstwhile Atal Behari Vajpayee government, will increasingly take the back seat.

“Apart from the fact that the BJP’s allies in the NDA would be thrown into a state of high discomfort, this aggressive return to the basics by the RSS/BJP does not augur well for the future of India’s secular democratic republican foundations,” it says. The editorial criticises the BJP in general for opposing the programme for minority welfare on the ground of “communal budgeting” and Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi in particular for leading an attack on the issue in Wednesday’s meeting of the National Development Council.

“The Sachar Committee findings have comprehensively nailed the lie of the BJP’s vicious campaign of ‘minority appeasement’,” the editorial says. The CPI(M)’s central committee on Thursday began its three-day meeting in New Delhi. The 85-member committee will firm up the political resolution for adoption at the 19th party congress, which will be held in Coimbatore from March 29 to April 2 next year. It will also discuss issues of foreign and economic policies. The party congress held every three years is the highest decision-making body of the CPI(M).

<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So looks like a hot summer ahead in 2008.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Can't assure Govt's stability: Sonia, Karat </b>
Pioneer.com
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
... tell Karunanidhi; Kanimozhi's Cabinet entry postponed
DMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, who was in Delhi for the past three days, returned disappointed to Chennai on Friday after both <b>Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat could not assure him on the stability of the UPA Government</b>.   

The cloud of uncertainty hovering over the longevity of the UPA Government has come in the way of Karunanidhi's efforts to get his daughter Kanimozhi inducted in the Union Cabinet.

Sources close to the DMK patriarch told The Pioneer<b> that Karunanidhi wanted his daughter to be inducted in the Cabinet provided it was going to last its full term.</b>

The DMK chief who came to Delhi to attend the National Development Council meeting on Wednesday, met UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi along with his wife Rajathi Ammal.

According to sources, in the meeting, Karunanidhi touched upon the case of induction of Kanimozhi in the Union Cabinet in case the Government was going to be stable.

But he got no firm assurance from the Congress president on either of the issues, sources said.

<b>Later in the day, senior Congress leaders Arjun Singh and Sushil Kumar Shinde called on Karunanidhi at Tamil Nadu House and urged him to persuade Prakash Karat to ensure stability of the Government in view of the standoff on the India-US nuclear deal.

Subsequently, when Karat went to see the wheel- chaired Chief Minister in the Tamil Nadu House, the issue of nuclear agreement was discussed, but sources said Karat disappointed Karunanidhi by reiterating his party's stand</b>.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&:cool--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/specool.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='specool.gif' /><!--endemo--> http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.asp?m...t&counter_img=4

"Karnataka is both an opportunity and a challenge. The BJP has made deep inroads in rural belt and riding on the sympathy wave, it could hope to once again emerge as the single largest party in the State."

If BJP is able to form stable Govt in Karnatka, I think, it will be difficult to stop it @ center.

[Bodhi]

Uproar over Modi's Chennai visit

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Modi is in the city to take part in the 37th annual celebrations of the Tamil fortnightly Thuglaq at Kamaraj Arangam.

Modi, who is on his first visit to Tamil Nadu after winning the recent assembly elections in Gujarat, is also scheduled for a luncheon meeting with All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam supremo Jayalalithaa.

The meeting has sparked off speculations about revival of ties between the AIADMK and the Bharatiya Janata Party.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

<b>Next general election, Assembly polls as per delimited constituencies</b>

Thu, Feb 14 07:45 PM

New Delhi, Feb 14 (ANI): The Union Cabinet today decided that the next general elections and assembly polls would be held as per the new delimited constituencies.

However, the new recommendations of the Delimitation Commission would not apply to Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland and Jharkhand.

A meeting of the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today decided to recommend to the President to issue notifications at the earliest to implement the Delimitation Commission recommendations.

"This will bring the new delimitation orders issued by the Delimitation Commission into force and pave the way for election to the House of the People and the Legislative Assembly of each State on the basis of new territorial constituencies," Information and Broadcasting Minister P R Dasmunsi told reporters here.

The Cabinet also approved a proposal to supersede the earlier Delimitation Order of 1976 and to amend the Representation of the People Act 1950 to reflect the changes in reservation of SC and ST seats as per the newly delimited constituencies.
***********

This move will have far reaching consequences as the voting pattern in the constituencies may/will change drastically.

[ramana]

Immediate impact is on Karnataka electionn whihc wiil have to be postponed to address this mandate. Meantime INC has time to twist and psy-op its way to the polling booths. Why wanst Karnataka exempted like the other states?

[Guest]

<b>Nod for delimitation report</b>
Feb 15, 2008

Assembly polls as per revised constituencies: notification won’t apply to north-east, Jharkhand

Karnataka polls likely only in August/September.

NEW DELHI: The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved implementation of the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission on re-defining Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies.

A meeting of the Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, decided to recommend to the President to issue notifications at the earliest to implement the recommendations, Information and Broadcasting Minister Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi told reporters.

The notification would be in respect of 24 States and Union Territories and it would not apply to five States — Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland and Jharkhand. The government had earlier deferred the delimitation exercise in four north-eastern States and Jharkhand by approving amendments to the Delimitation Act 2002 through an ordinance.

In view of the Cabinet’s decision, the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and Assembly elections in the States, including Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, scheduled later this year would be held as per the revised constituencies.

Asked about Karnataka, where elections are due, Mr. Munshi said: “The moment the notification is signed, the States go to the polls by the delimited constituencies.”

According to Commission sources, once the President issues the notification, the electoral rolls of the Assembly constituencies have to be revised in Karnataka. This exercise would be completed in about three to four months and the polls would be possible only in August/September. If they can not be held by May, President’s rule will have to be extended by another six months.

The Cabinet also approved a proposal to supersede the Delimitation Order of 1976 and to amend the Representation of the People Act 1950 to reflect the changes in reservation of seats for the SCs and the STs as per the delimited constituencies. This would bring the new orders into force and pave the way for elections to the Lok Sabha and the Assemblies on the basis of new constituencies.

[Guest]

This is Arun Nehru uvacha ( take it with a pinch of salt). He lost his midas touch in his analysis.

<b>Up in the air at the moment </b>
Arun Nehru

Politics rarely takes a vacation. No wonder both the Congress and the BJP are jostling for supremacy, keeping in mind the 2009 general election. The BJP is on the offensive and I must admit that I am amused by the 'loyal' media sources as they first circulate the speculation and then believe that Mr Narendra Modi is a threat to Mr LK Advani. The fact that Mr Modi's brand of politics -- integrity and performance -- is gaining momentum and cuts across 'secular' and 'non-secular' theories propounded by political interests for vote-bank politics, is a welcome sign. Hopefully, we will have more Chief Ministers capable of independent action and free of hidden power sources based on extra-constitutional factors.

The delay in the Karnataka election, which the Congress had a good chance of winning, and virtually clubbing it together with the elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will suit the BJP. As things stand, the BJP stands to gain more than the Congress. Any further 'security' issues in the next few months and the constant talk about a soft approach to terror and terrorists may well beat the anti-incumbency wave in these BJP-ruled States to a great extent.

Mr Modi has his detractors, but nothing succeeds like success. The fact is, he can go to any part of the country and the people will love to hear his views. He will attract larger crowds in the future.

The BJP is clearly advancing and you may well find Mr Advani projecting the Gujarat example in the rest of the country. Any leader who is a genuine leader rarely acts against popular opinion within the party and the public. The decline of the BJP has been arrested and it has the better part of 2008 to prepare for the future.

Teamwork lacking in the past with dual power bases -- the RSS was also active -- is largely absent, and should be dealt with ruthlessly if the NDA is to gain credibility. Regional parties are observing political developments with interest and forces opposed to the Congress (the ADMK, TC, TDP, BJD, NC, SP, BSP) have the option of aligning with the NDA or the 'Third Front'. The Congress, as the single largest party, continues to have advantage, but the NDA and 'Third Front' are more than a threat to the party.

<b>Coalition politics is never easy, and because of anti-incumbency factors and the advancement of the regional parties in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh (the ADMK and the TDP), we can see a 50-seat swing in either direction. This can result in many a change in the immediate future, as it did for the Congress in 2004. </b>

The Congress, in theory, should gain from the anti-incumbency factor in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. But as things stand in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP (NDA) and the Left-SP ('Third Front') combinations have a larger set of options on possible alliances at the moment.

The Congress will make a fatal error if it relies on a 'loyal' media, sting operations, Government agencies and defections from the Opposition to ensure political success. 'High' growth and a 'friendly' Budget will help create a favourable atmosphere, but political success will be achieved by political acts and the projection of charismatic leaders in the States.

Assembly elections are due in the North-East, as also in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- with 100 Lok Sabha seats in these four States -- towards the end of 2008. I think the real action may well come from the fluid situation in Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) and Maharashtra (48 seats). There will be many political developments in the next nine months. One wonders if this may lead to a general election towards the end of 2008.

Uttar Pradesh is crucial. Ms Mayawati and the BSP are indulging in excesses with the Opposition and are initiating action against the SP, the BJP and the Congress. This is a serious matter as every vendetta invites retribution at some stage. The battle will still be between the BSP and the SP, but both the Congress and the BJP can also benefit if the BSP tirade against the Opposition continues in this manner.

Ms Mayawati is treating an electoral verdict for stability and good governance as a personal licence to indulge in excesses. In this, the SP will be a definite gainer. The Congress, with Mr Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, may also gain. As for the BJP, it still needs an organisational structure to gain from these acts.

The situation in Maharashtra is fluid. The fight between the MNS and the SP (both parties are on the decline in this State) reflects the reality. As the Shiv Sena, under Mr Uddhav Thackeray, consolidates its position, the Sena and the BJP may well improve their current tally in the Lok Sabha marginally. Therefore, the Congress and the NCP are under pressure.

Coming to out western neighbour, events in Pakistan seem to have disappeared from our media radar and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the electoral battle in that country have receded to the background. There are few doubts that we will have to deal with the General and the Army in the near future and I don't think anyone will object to this situation.

As for India, it will continue to face the problem of infiltration by terrorists. After a relatively calm winter, we can expect terrorist attempts by 'sleeper units' within the country. Internal security may well be the primary issue in an election year, as illegal immigration is being linked with the minority vote-bank in several States. Moreover, things in Assam show little improvement.

[Guest]

From Asian Age

Can’t afford to wait till ’09

All signals are pointing towards early Lok Sabha elections. The stage is set for the government to push the India-US nuclear deal by May. In a calculated move, the Congress has decided to take advantage of the anti-incumbency trends against the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, three states which account for over 60 seats. Another factor is the projection of a poor kharif crop in December, which is bound to escalate food prices. The Congress will not be in a position to face the aam aadmi in a scenario where the prices of essential food commodities go up. Therefore, the party is seriously contemplating early elections along with Assembly elections in six states.

[Guest]

Reuters

New Delhi, February 29, 2008

<b>Nuclear deal, elections on menu after Budget</b>

Congress has strengthened its hand against the opposition and Left allies
with a <b>farmer-friendly Budget, raising a chance of early elections and reviving
hope for a controversial nuclear deal.</b>

Congress leaders had been reluctant to push forward the civilian nuclear
cooperation deal with the United States in the face of staunch opposition from
their communist allies, who had threatened to bring down the coalition over the
issue.

US officials warned this month that time was fast running out for the deal,
which would end decades of nuclear isolation for India and allow it to access
international nuclear fuel and equipment.

Many analysts had all but written the agreement off.

But Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram upset those calculations on
Friday with a budget aimed squarely at elections and India's rural poor, with a
<b>$15 billion scheme to waive loans held by 40 million small farmers.</b>

Elections have to be held by May 2009, but Congress now has less to fear from
an earlier vote, analysts say, meaning its leader Sonia Gandhi might just call
the Left's bluff over the nuclear deal.

"It's a pre-election Budget, a Budget with an eye for early elections, but
whether or not they will go for it I don't know," said Mahesh Rangarajan, a
political analyst and history professor at Delhi University.

"Sonia Gandhi has to make the decision."

<b>Newspapers reported on Friday that the government was close to concluding a
nuclear safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency in
Vienna,</b> a crucial step in tortuous negotiations over the agreement.

The deal would also need to be ratified by the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers
Group and go back to the US Congress for final approval, in good time before
America's own elections in November.

Supporters of the deal like nuclear expert RR Subramanian were in good
spirits.

"This is nothing short of an election budget," he said.

"They have virtually said goodbye to the Left. <b>The nuclear deal will be done
by July and elections will be in October. This budget clearly indicates the deal
has been saved."</b>

But others said a lot still needed to be done on the nuclear deal in a short
space of time.

"It's 5 to 12 as far as many people are concerned," said one Western diplomat,
"but I think it could go through."

"They may have left it too late, but there is obviously one last bid to push
it through," said political analyst and columnist Prem Shankar Jha.

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> LJP to contest with JD(U) support

Navin Upadhyay | New Delhi

In a development that could cause a flutter in the UPA camp, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) will be contesting the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls from Bihar with the support of the Janata Dal(U).

Sources said the LJP would rely on additional 21 votes that the JD(U) will transfer after ensuring the victories of three NDA candidates in the March 26 poll. Of the five full six-year-term seats for which polls will be held, the JD (U) will contest two and the BJP one.

The BJP has 55 MLAs and it will have 14 extra votes after electing its candidates with 41 votes. The BJP will transfer its extra votes to the JD (U), which in turn will pass on its surplus 21 votes to the LJP. This way there will not be any alliance between the BJP and the LJP.

The RJD with 54 MLAs will be able to send just one MP to the RS and there will be keen contest between Lalu Prasad's candidates and his one-time friend, philosopher and guide Ranjan Prasad Yadav, who will be the LJP's nominee.

The LJP has 10 MLAs and with the help of the JD(U) , independents, and smaller parties, it is confident of winning the fifth seat in a close contest.

Election will also be held for the vacancy caused by the death of RJD's Moiddur Rahman. The JD(U) is sure to bag the seat with a two-year tenure since Rahman had already served four years before his death.

Former bureaucrat NK Singh, JD(U) spokesman Shivanand Tiwari, and media personality MJ Akbar and eminent Muslim leader Syed Sahabuddin are some of the prominent names doing the rounds as prospective JD(U) candidates.

For the BJP nomination, it is toss up between former Union Minister CP Thakur and State unit chief Radhamohan Singh.

Sources said Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and JD(U) national president Sharad Yadav have discussed the implications of extending support to the LJP and also conveyed their decision to LJP chief Ramvilas Paswan.

Sources said the bonhomie between Paswan and Nitish Kumar could be forerunner of new political equation in Bihar in the next general election. RJD's defeat in successive bypolls in Bihar during the last three years have shown that without the help of Paswan, Lalu Prasad could not put any effective challenge to the NDA. Paswan is also emboldened by the huge turnout at his rally in Patna in November last year and wanted to play a greater role in both State and national politics.

Sources said like BSP chief Mayawati, Paswan is also likely to shun the politics of untouchability and pursue the agenda of strengthening his party.

LJP leaders defend the decision to seek JD(U)'s helps for RS seat. What is the harm? The JD(U) will be transferring its surplus votes to us and not the BJP," a senior LJP leader said.

LJP sources said Paswan has made up his mind not to repeat the mistake of the past by having any electoral tie-up with Lalu Prasad. In 2004, Lalu had allotted eight seats to Paswan, who later accused the RJD chief of sabotaging the prospect of LJP candidates.

"We are ready to tie-up with anyone who is willing to recognise our strength and accordingly enter into seat adjustments with us," said a LJP leader. " But at no cost there will be any understanding with the RJD," he said.

Sources said Paswan will be aiming to ensure he has double digit numbers in the next Lok Sabha. For that he wants to contest at least one dozen winnable seats in Bihar. If the emerging equation for the RS polls are any indication, the UPA will be completely divided house in Bihar in the in the next Lok Sabha polls with Paswan doing everything to possible to cut down the RJD's numbers.