2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[ramana]

They might sign the deal and go for elections that way it will be a fait accompli for the next govt.

[Guest]

Chandrababu Naidu says he will never align with BJP again.

Naidu assures Muslims he will not side with BJP again
HYDERABAD: TDP president N Chadnrababu Naidu assured the Muslilms that TDP will not side with BJP in future. During his election campaign in Alair constituency of Nalgonda district on Monday, he asked the people to defeat the corrupt Congress and the opportunistic TRS in the coming elections.
The former chief minister said that Karnataka results are a lesson for the Congress. This corrupt, anti-people and inefficient government is going to meet the same fate in Andhra Pradesh. He blamed the Congress for stoking the regional feelings among the people of three regions in the State.

He alleged that the Congress was responsible for the “300 percent hike” in the prices of essential commodities. He promised cooking gas and a stove for every poor woman, 3 gram mangalasutram for new brides, 12-hour power during the morning time for farmers and a special bank with a capital of Rs. 2,000 crore to come to the rescue of artisans if TDP comes to power.

[Bodhi]

is there a TRS-BJP alliance possibility?

[shamu]

<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+May 28 2008, 09:48 AM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ May 28 2008, 09:48 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Chandrababu Naidu says he will never align with BJP again.

Naidu assures Muslims he will not side with BJP again 
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think he is scared that he may get finished off like JD(S). He should see that, if he is sensible, he will be able to have a sustained partnership like that of BJD, Akali or JD(U).

If Naidu plays this game, BJP should align with Chiranjeevi. What I heard is that Chiranjeevi is going to eat into TD vote bank.

[shamu]

<img src='http://im.rediff.com/news/2008/may/29states2.gif' border='0' alt='user posted image' />

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-shamu+May 28 2008, 01:04 AM-->QUOTE(shamu @ May 28 2008, 01:04 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+May 28 2008, 09:48 AM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kharavela @ May 28 2008, 09:48 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Chandrababu Naidu says he will never align with BJP again.

Naidu assures Muslims he will not side with BJP again 
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think he is scared that he may get finished off like JD(S). He should see that, if he is sensible, he will be able to have a sustained partnership like that of BJD, Akali or JD(U).

If Naidu plays this game, BJP should align with Chiranjeevi. What I heard is that Chiranjeevi is going to eat into TD vote bank.
[right][snapback]82123[/snapback][/right]
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Naidu's a <i>thali ka baingan</i>. Last years efforts to launch a united third front against Cong and BJP sunk before they could start. Does BJP have a presence in AP at state level?

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-Viren+May 30 2008, 12:47 PM-->QUOTE(Viren @ May 30 2008, 12:47 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin-shamu+May 28 2008, 01:04 AM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(shamu @ May 28 2008, 01:04 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+May 28 2008, 09:48 AM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(kharavela @ May 28 2008, 09:48 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Chandrababu Naidu says he will never align with BJP again.

Naidu assures Muslims he will not side with BJP again 
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think he is scared that he may get finished off like JD(S). He should see that, if he is sensible, he will be able to have a sustained partnership like that of BJD, Akali or JD(U).

If Naidu plays this game, BJP should align with Chiranjeevi. What I heard is that Chiranjeevi is going to eat into TD vote bank.
[right][snapback]82123[/snapback][/right]<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Naidu's a <i>thali ka baingan</i>. Last years efforts to launch a united third front against Cong and BJP sunk before they could start. Does BJP have a presence in AP atstate level?
[right][snapback]82181[/snapback][/right]
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I'm not exactly sure what thali ka baigan means. I'd guess it means going by which way wind blows.

TDP main ideology is Telugu/AP identity and anti-Congress. I don't think TDP has changed from its ideology. Even in National politics, it always sided with anti-Congress. Some of the National Front parties went to Congress to form UPA and some went to BJP to form NDA. It remained fiercely independent in its national outlook - still sees itself part of National Front of late 80s and hence the third front efforts. It has working relationship with both BJP and Commies so siding with either of them is not out of place and its relationship with them is purely based on self-interest of winning in AP.

BJP in AP is non-starter despite its having roots for very long time in Hyderabad City and surrounding areas mostly because MQM existance. Beyond the City its electability mostly depends on its ties with TDP. Another major mistake BJP is doing is its support (half-hearted may be) with Telangana seperate movement. That short-sided strategy is to get at least Telangana in its side. Best way for BJP to get seats in AP is to split and displace Congress by pulling in some of rebels in Congress and old-TDP leaders. Most of Telugu people who has Telugu identity are also strong Nationalists. I'm not talking about RSS people there. BJP is leaving bad opinion among Telugu people by trying to play petty politics of aiding separatist movement.

AP had elections recently for the seats resigned by TRS. We need to analyze voting percentage shifts to see how TDP and Congress are faring. Last time Congress and TRS fought together. This time their voters split so it is good opportunity for TDP to win a few seats.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-shyam+May 30 2008, 08:07 PM-->QUOTE(shyam @ May 30 2008, 08:07 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->AP had elections recently for the seats resigned by TRS. We need to analyze voting percentage shifts to see how TDP and Congress are faring. Last time Congress and TRS fought together. This time their voters split so it is good opportunity for TDP to win a few seats.
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Well results are out. TDP and Cong won 1 each and TRS won 2. All 4 MP seats were vacated by the TRS by their resignation. Out of 16 MLA seats, TDP won 5 in bypolls.

So bottom line, if Congress and TRS run seperately, TDP wins. TRS is one reason TDP has to shift taking support from BJP to Commies. In Coastal and Rayalaseema districts,
commies don't have presence in bloc.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-shyam+Jun 1 2008, 07:55 AM-->QUOTE(shyam @ Jun 1 2008, 07:55 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Well results are out.  TDP and Cong won 1 each and TRS won 2.  All 4 MP seats were vacated by the TRS by their resignation.  Out of 16 MLA seats, TDP won 5 in bypolls.

So bottom line, if Congress and TRS run seperately, TDP wins.  TRS is one reason TDP has to shift taking support from BJP to Commies. In Coastal and Rayalaseema districts, commies don't have presence in bloc.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting TDP+Communists combined vote share has gone down compared to TDP+BJP from 2004. TDP needs to evaluate its strategy of winning and whether communists compensate BJP vote share. TRS and Congress split works for TDP advantage but it is limited to Telangana area.

For next elections, based on swings in 1999 and 2004 and this by elections, TDP has advantage of gaining back some of seats it won in 1999 but lost in 2004. My projection is:

TDP 17
Congress 14
BJP 2
TRS 2
CPI/CPIM 2
Toss up 5 (some in Congress favor)

In scenario where TDP+BJP combination contests, my projection is:

TDP - 20
BJP - 5
Congress - 14
TRS - 2
CPI/CPIM - 1

Coastal AP is still key for Congress winning that many seats as it had huge swing in 2004. If those districts are swinging back to TDP, TDP can expect even more seats.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->I'm not exactly sure what thali ka baigan means. I'd guess it means going by which way wind blows.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's correct Shyam. I should have clarified.

Meanwhile, we have a new (rather) old contender for PM spot: Laluji!!
Lalu wants to become Prime Minister
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->``Haan banna hai... pacca banna hai... bina jhagra jhanjhat se banna hai lekin banna hai... apna kam kariye... the basic judge is people, our country people (Yes I want to become the Prime Minister for sure. But I will do that without any quarrel or fuss. Our people are our chief judge),'<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->In the interview, Mr. Prasad said he had alsowanted to become Home Minister in the UPA Government, but ``some difficulty'' led to him being given the Railway portfolio.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&:blow--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blow.gif' /><!--endemo--> BJP strategists are gambling on a combination of factors to enable it to increase its success-ratio in Uttar Pradesh. These include the coming into play of two different layers of anti-incumbency (one against the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre and another against the Mayawati government) and hitting the right caste-combination in the selection of its candidates.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/P...how/3108224.cms

[acharya]

BJP predicts snap polls to Lok Sabha

Chennai (PTI): Predicting early polls to the Lok Sabha, the BJP was gearing up to meet it, senior party leader M Venkaiah Naidu said on Monday.

All the state units had been asked to complete setting up of their poll strategy committees by August next and be prepared for snap polls, he told reporters here.

The BJP would concentrate on the seats won by it at least once from the 1996 Lok Sabha polls. The party had won 296 Lok Sabha seats at least once from 1996. Its NDA partners had won 96 seats at least once, he said.

He said the party's victory in Karnataka had opened the gates for the BJP in the south and it was expected to win more seats from Andhra Pradesh, besides opening its account in Kerala.

On the question of alliance with parties in Tamil Nadu, he said his party was open to it. All parties barring the Congress and Left were not inimical to the BJP, he said.

Criticising the Centre for not fixing minimum support price for paddy at Rs 1,050 as demanded by farmers, he said it only proved the BJP's charge that the UPA government was anti-farmer.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi should use his good offices and prevail upon the Centre to hike the MSP for paddy, he said.

[Guest]

<b>DMK snaps ties with PMK</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->In a lengthy resolution passed at the meeting, the party alleged that PMK founder Dr S Ramadoss was attempting to get 'cheap political publicity' by criticising each and every decision of the DMK government which was against 'alliance dharma'<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[shamu]

DMK and <b>dharma</b>??? <!--emo&:omg--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/omg.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='omg.gif' /><!--endemo-->

I can see pigs flying in the sky...

[Guest]

<b>Congress: No tie-ups </b>


New Delhi, June 17: A churning has begun in the Congress Party on two major issues — pre-poll alliances and leadership — even before submission of the Antony Committee report and holding of a chintan shivir in July. In fact, the party is in a dilemma over whether to come to power through alliances or on its own after a series of electoral reverses in about a dozen state Assemblies despite completing almost a full term at the Centre.

There is also a growing realisation among the senior leaders that the coalitions, whether at the Centre or in states, do not suit the Congress which has an all-India presence. This will ultimately shrink the party’s base in the long run, they felt. “We have to decide whether pre-poll alliances are in the inte-rest of the party. This have, in fact, strengthened regional parties which are trying to check our growth.
<b>They have no ideological conviction and can go with any party, including the BJP,” a Congress Working Committee member pointed out. </b> <!--emo&:omg--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/omg.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='omg.gif' /><!--endemo-->

On the other hand, a Union minister from the party, who is part of the party’s strategy committee, said, “We shou-ld sit in the Opposition for the next five years and rebuild the organisation. <b>We have a leader like Mr Rahul Gandhi who has age on his side.</b> Coalitions are okay for parties like the BJP which lacks an all-India presence. The Congress came to pow-er at the Centre after eight years in May 2004 through a coalition but that did not help the party to revive in the states where it has been weak.

But it lost the ruling states like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Top leaders in the party have been busy in running the coalition and thus igno-red the organisation. They could not identify regional leaders with a mass following like Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi did. <b>Instead, the sons of established leaders, their personal assistants and rootless leaders got promoted in the organisation and government</b>.” <!--emo&:roll--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ROTFL.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='ROTFL.gif' /><!--endemo--> “Orissa PCC president Jayadev Jena is not seen as an alternate to chief minister Naveen Patnaik. We should not promote ‘tired’ regional satraps who blackmail the high command,” a senior leader said.

[shamu]

<!--QuoteBegin-k.ram+Jun 18 2008, 06:37 AM-->QUOTE(k.ram @ Jun 18 2008, 06:37 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> “We shou-ld sit in the Opposition for the next five years and rebuild the organisation. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This must not be ignored. Rahul Baba is willing to spend plenty of time to travel and they have no shortage of funds.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->This must not be ignored. Rahul Baba is willing to spend plenty of time to travel and they have no shortage of funds.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
All Nuke and defence fairy dropped some droplets, which will keep them in good humor for next 10 years.

[Guest]

On nuclear deal, USG has put a deadline of Jan 20th (the day new administration takes over the White House). Does this put any pressure on UPA to call for early elections given the fact Marxists might scuttle the ship on this one issue?

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Allies for signing N-deal but want to take Left along </b>
pioneer.com
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
In the war of nerves between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Left parties on Indo-US civil nuclear deal, the UPA allies have positioned themselves in favour of the Government, but have raised apprehensions about the political repercussions of going ahead by ditching the Left parties.

<b>No ally wants to face the election at the moment when the anti-incumbency is at its peak and the popularity of the UPA Government is at an all time low due to the spiralling rise in prices. They also fear that even after the elections, the support of Left parties would be crucial to form any Government of the present configuration</b>.

After deferring the UPA-Left meeting on the agreement on Wednesday, RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav called all the Ministers of his party in the Union Cabinet in the night and reviewed the emerging political situation. Before that he had called on External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee to caution him from taking the extreme stand till the next meeting of the UPA and Left.

On Thursday, following CPI(M) Politburo member Sitaram Yechury's meeting with the Railway Minister in the afternoon, Lalu came in support of the agreement openly but remarked that<b> "both the deal and Left parties are important" for him</b>. Lalu was actually trying to keep the PM in confidence and at the same time was underlining the importance of the Left parties.

That was why on the one hand he supported the deal in black and white and went to meet Mukherjee along with Yechury in the evening to break the impasse. The RJD chief said that the deal was necessary for the country's development and it would be unfortunate if it fell through.

<b>But Lalu was cautious enough not to tell that the Government should go ahead with the IAEA negotiations </b>
.....

In the evening NCP president and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar met External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and later told the media that no one had conveyed him that the Government was going ahead with the deal.

<b>"I am part of the Government. I have not heard anything like that (signing the deal with the IAEA),"</b> he said and refuted reports that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had asked him to speak to Left parties to convince them.

However,<b> he cautioned the Government on going alone with the agreement. "It is our duty to take our friends and whosoever has supported us for four-and-a-half years into consideration before taking a final view (on the nuclear deal)," </b>Pawar said outside the South Block office of the External Affairs Minister.

<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Somehow UPA is thinking they can back in power. Why and how?

[ramana]

Lalu and pawar are both trying to play all sides of the issue. Pawar in particular is being blamed for the price rise of fertilisers and the waiver of fees for 20-20 cricket which could have fethced some of the money for fertilizers. IOW he doesnt want to face elections till the monsoon crops com ein and folks feel good. Lalu is half commie but wants to be in power. He hasnt worked out the new coalition in Bihar to get back into power.