BJP Future - 4

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->In the survey published in the latest issue of India today Shri Vajpayee is still the most popular candidate as Prime Minister. However, in this mid term poll the ruling coalition is much ahead of the NDA in popularity. Whether, they will be able to sustain this position in the next two years cannot be predicted at present.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Ravishji,</b>
It seems you missed biggest fraud live on net. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> CNN_IBN live poll result was showing different result. I have posted snap shot in one of the thread. Modi was with 68%+ votes and MMS was just 10%. So what CNN-IBN did? They stopped showing poll and announced MMS is most popular leader. Same was UPA performance.
Now we can see how gullible people believe what media is saying.
Not sure whether you have seen sampling method, it cracked me. Its shame jokers are insulting Mathematicians and Statisticians.

[shamu]

<!--QuoteBegin-Ravish+Jan 30 2007, 07:42 PM-->QUOTE(Ravish @ Jan 30 2007, 07:42 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->In the survey published in the latest issue of India today Shri Vajpayee is still the most popular candidate as Prime Minister. However, in this mid term poll the ruling coalition is much ahead of the NDA in popularity. Whether, they will be able to sustain this position in the next two years cannot be predicted at present.
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I can't believe that there are people, who after hanging around this forum for a long time believe the psy-ops.

[Guest]

The results of the latest round of infighting within the BJP is out.According to the Economic Times of date :->
Quote
Rajnath’s team may not return winners



Our Political Bureau NEW DELHI




The ‘Indiresan principle’ has been vindicated once again. The former IIT-M director’s formulations on leadership is proving to be correct to a T as the BJP undertakes changes in its organisational hierarchy.
First a recap of the Indiresan principle. According to PV Indiresan, the chief architect of President APJ Abdul Kalam’s pet project ‘Providing Urban amenities in Rural Areas (PURA) “leaders” in various fields are a failure because of their inability to undertake the basic task — to lead. In his writings, Indiresan made three formulations. One, if you have good assistants, 99% of your work is done. But if you have bad assistants, your work doubles. Second, many people are scared of hiring competent people. Second-raters recruit third-raters as they are scared of first-raters. And third, a good administrator’s job is of getting things done by skilled people.
The changes that BJP president Rajnath Singh made in his team, even the party’s rivals admit, reinforces the relevance of the Indiresan principle. Mr Singh, who took charge of the party with a promise to “connect” with people — implicit in this is the admission that the BJP was rebuffed in the last Lok Sabha polls because its leadership moved away from the voter — was expected to put in a new team that will reassure the cadre and the constituency outside it about some purposeful steps on the part of the party.
The BJP has, for the past few years, been in the throes of an internal turmoil. Naturally, there was talk that the party president will attempt to put an end to internal rivalries and ego clashes.
That was not all. 2007 presents a crucial opportunity to the BJP to show that it has not lost its winning habit. While the election process is already underway in Punjab and Uttarakhand, elections are round the corner in politically-crucial Uttar Pradesh. Towards the end of the year, its stronghold of Gujarat will be going to the polls and it cannot afford to lose the state as it will be seen as a no-confidence on the BJP.
But when he recast his team, Mr Singh showed undue anxiety to prove the Indiresan principle correct rather than address the immediate task before him — set his house in order to face the electoral challenges.
<b> First, Mr Singh cut Narendra Modi, a leader of the party’s big league, to size by denying him a place in the central parliamentary board. Dissidence against Mr Modi had almost vanished from even newspaper columns. But Mr Singh ensured that the dissidence finds a receptive quarter in Delhi. Mr Singh rubbed this in by appointing a nominee of Modi’s rival, Keshubhai Patel, as the party’s youth wing chief. </b> Mr Singh’s second target was Arun Jaitley. He stripped Mr Jaitley of the charge of the chief spokesman and gave the task of handling media to three men, who are yet to display any potential to undertake the task.
If Jaitley was removed for furthering cronyism, Mr Modi’s place is now occupied Tawarchand Gehlot and a one-constituency leader, Ananth Kumar. Meanwhile, neo-convert Arif Mohd Khan is continuing to get a raw deal. Mr Khan, the best Muslim face the party can boast of, appears to have no utility for Rajnath’s BJP. He has been retained as an ordinary member of the national executive.
Second raters — who tend to hire third raters at the cost of first raters — may not quite aid the job assigned to the BJP president. And it is the RSS that seems to be acknowledging the problem and how much it reflects the tenets of the Indiresan Principle. “... the BJP does not face as much a threat from the Congress, the Communists or any other socalled secular party as it faces from internal dissatisfaction, infighting, and from scattered leaders with haughty temperament. If they are controlled, everything will be under control,” an editorial in the RSS mouthpiece Panchjanya said on Tuesday.
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If such infights continue till the run up to the next general elections, it is unlikely that the BJP will be able to make an impressive showing at the polls.

[Guest]

Ravishji

I think this is healthy, if true. And that is a big IF. ABV v/s LKA was a silly and artificial show generated by media. But even assuming that there indeed is such infighting it is healthy at this stage. UP and Guj elections will sort that out. To Modi all this doesnt matter at all. Infact it will be helpful in convincing gujju voters that it is indeed he who is going to remain the CM of Guj and not move on to bigger things. After Guj elections some changes will happen.

[Guest]

Sometimes its hard to figure out whether Sheela Bhatt loves Modi or hates him.. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->

http://specials.rediff.com/news/2007/jan/31sld1.htm

[ramana]

The media is reading what ever they want to in the moves. A national political party has to make moves that impact its image where needed. Lets see if these moves sent the right message.

[Bharatvarsh]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->The media is reading what ever they want to in the moves. A national political party has to make moves that impact its image where needed. Lets see if these moves sent the right message. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well so far it is sending all the "wrong singnals" to the core constituency of BJP, if BJP thinks that it can win the votes of the secular crowd by dropping Modi then it is in for a rude shock.

I want Modi to be PM of India and not just confined to Gujarat, that will be a shocker to the secular crowd and also good for India's development as a whole.

[ramana]

I read it differently. It is not addressed to any local observers. Time will tell.

[Guest]

Bharatvarsh

There are pros and cons with Modi and his brand of leadership. There are tradeoffs involved. For eg.

- Modi is about (the irreplaceable) person and while Singh is about organization.
- Modi is more about development while Singh is more about ideology.
- Modi is about a person's charisma to make it happen while Singh is about party and its processes.
- Modi is leader of a state with huuge middle-class while Singh is leader of a state with a small middle-class.

Neither is right or wrong but that debate of varying styles is important and a middle of the road approach will ahve to be arrived at.

One thing is for sure, Modi doesnt need a big post in BJP heirarchy in order to succeed in Guj elections. So if removing Modi from this post helps Singh do well in UP in some way then why not ? Modi is not loosing sleep over it. Infact nobody is, except a few media people. I wouldnt be surprised if Modi actually got himself removed from that post. My guess is we will see changes once the Guj elections are over.

[Bharatvarsh]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->One thing is for sure, Modi doesnt need a big post in BJP heirarchy in order to succeed in Guj elections.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What's the mood in Gujarat right now?

My Gujju friend who visited Gujarat recently tells me that Modi is sure to win and will probably score more votes than in the last elections, the rural vote is significant but it seems Modi will not have trouble since he has managed to provide electricity to all the villages and has kept his promises.

[Guest]

If elections were to be held today he will win. I am more interested in how big the win is going to be. Huge victories in local body polls has really taken the wind out of his detractors, the next state elections IMO will determine many things..

- a huge victory will give him great leverage in Dilli.
- his ticket allocations in the next elections will be interesting to see.
- his successor in Guj, if and when and how it happens will be interesting.
- also another big victory will definitely force people from other states to look at him in different way.

[Guest]

I won't be surprised if this was engineered by Modi himself - (a) voters in Gujarat are happy that he'll focus on state and (b) he gains sympathy for being shuttled around by 'high command' despite stellar achievements in Gujarat's economy and trade and © his detractors get a short time high of of seeing his wings being clipped.
It's a win-win for him.
Will wager all this changes after state election - there's little stopping him if he's destined for greater role, least of all cheap wannabes like the current dinosaurs clinging to whatever little they have left.

Here's rediff on Talented Mr Modi

[ramana]

Are tehre benefits to adjacent states with rise of Gujarat's prosperity?

What I mean is there cannot be an island of prosperity. Adjacent states will benefit indirectly from this rise in Gujarat and is that noted in the statistics? I dont expect the media to note that but the data will reflect this- migrations from out of area, truck traffic, adjacent states border areas prosperity etc.

[Guest]

Ramana: Partisan politics trumps in most cases so exact analysis might not be possible. There should be independent commissions/bodies looking into such issues.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Modi also attacked Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh for his "lack of concern" for development of the state. "<b>Four states would have received 1495mw of power had Sardar Sarovar Dam been 121 mt in height but Vilasrao chose to adhere to the Congress' policy and voted against the proposal, against wishes of energy-starved state,</b>" he said.
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[Guest]

Maharashtra/Mumbai has benefitted a lot from Gujjus (and vice-versa ofcourse). Thackeray gave up his aamchi-mumbai slogan because mumbai without gujjus is not mumbai. Guj/Maharashtra industrial complex is probably one of the most densely industrialized areas in Asia.

Rajasthan benefits tourism-wise. Rajasthan also provides cheap labour to gujju industries. Mt Abu is to Guj what Vegas is to California.

MP I am not too sure. But sooner or later the effects are going to show - its inevitable- all that needs to be done is hook into the extensive infrastructure buildup in Guj and there is a lot of low hanging fruit.

[ramana]

Are the BJP supporters in these states publicising the Modi effect and how the rising tide helps these states and they could all be more developed like Gujarat?

[Guest]

<b>Rajnath's task cut out</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Different interpretations are being made of the way Mr Singh has handled the reorganisation of office bearers.<b> Some say he has opened too many fronts by removing Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi from the parliamentary board and divesting the position of spokesperson of the party from Arun Jaitley. Another interpretation for targeting the Modi-Jaitley duo is that Mr Singh wants to reduce their importance in the party as they are his potential rivals.</b>

It is common knowledge that Mr Modi is the Hindutva icon of the party and he remains the undisputed leader in Gujarat. Mr Jaitley is the public face of the party who can influence the media with his convincing arguments and pleasing manners. Truth to tell, Mr Singh could not go too far in upsetting the bigwigs and neither can he wish them away.

The other interesting aspect is that Mr Singh was not able to get a single man of his choice despite being the party president. These cosmetic changes and tinkering with the posts of his rivals are not going to earn him kudos. He has given a chance to all the disgruntled elements that were hoping to complain about something to Mr Advani, to come together.

Mr Singh has many challenges ahead. First, he is yet to prove his mettle. Just dancing to the tunes of the RSS is not going to get him cooperation from the party. He has to improve his relations with Mr Advani; after all, the latter still has a formidable hold over the party. Second, he has to take his colleagues along with him to ensure the smooth functioning of the party. Alienating them is going to boomerang and will not yield good results.

Third,<b> Mr Singh has to be more communicative and media savvy and learn a thing or two from his colleagues like Ms Sushma Swaraj and Mr Arun Jaitley. Fourth, if Mr Singh has any prime ministerial ambitions, he should improve his relations with the NDA allies so that, at the opportune moment, they come out in support of him</b>.

The immediate challenge before Mr Singh is election in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh. Of these, Uttar Pradesh is crucial as it is also Mr Singh's home State and one-time citadel of the BJP. If he improves the position of the party in this State, it will give him good ratings. Mr Advani seems to have won round one. Mr Singh should ensure that he rises above petty politics and behaves like a national leader. There is no harm in taking everyone along.
link
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[Guest]

http://cities.expressindia.com/fullstory...sid=220114

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->BJP to use Modi for Punjab campaign, Mann vows protests
Two days after dropping him from the party's parliamentary board, the BJP on Wednesday announced that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi would visit Punjab for election campaign, inviting criticism from Alkali opponents of ally Parkash Singh Badal.

BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters that Modi, the party's Hindutva icon, would also tour poll-bound Uttarakhand for canvassing. Former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he said, would address public meetings in both the states ahead of the assembly elections. The move to use Modi for election campaign in Punjab drew flak from opponents of Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) chief Badal who is already under their fire for his ties with the BJP. <b>Hardline SAD leader Aimranjit Singh Mann said his party would hold statewide protests against Modi's visit because of allegations against him in connection with the Gujarat riots.</b>

A section of Badal's SAD also became uneasy with the BJP's plans to use Modi in Punjab campaign. "The BJP should not disregard the fact that its main ally in Punjab, the SAD, is a moderate party and represents a minority community. We do not think such moves will pay dividends to the BJP itself, which could only win three seats in the last state elections. <b>Also, within Akali circles, not much of difference is seen between Gujarat and 1984 riots,</b> " an Akali leader said.

On monday, BJP President Rajnath Singh had constituted his team of office-bearers dropping Modi from the parliamentary board of the party.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Bad time for mid-term polls: UPA may have to pay for its follies!</b>
M.V.Kamath
Samachar.com
February 1, 2007

There are rumours currently afloat that the UPA government is wishing to have midterm elections. If these rumours are true, then the Congress Party is more likely to get the worst drubbing at the political booth than it ever suffered in the last sixty years. The truth or tragedy, whichever way one looks at it is that in its desperate desire to garner votes it has been alienating a substantial segment of the population.

If Afsal Guru is not hanged in time, the Congress will get a severe beating. If he is hanged, the Congress may lose the Muslim vote; if he is not hanged, the party may lose the Hindu vote. Either way the party faces a tough time.

Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh’s advice to the National Development Council that minorities, particularly the Muslims, should have the “first claim” over national resources has clearly offended large sections of the Hindu poor. The advice may have been well meant, but it has hurt millions. The poor in India run into several millions.

According to the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) report on “Level and Pattern of Consumer Expenditure 2004-2005” released on 27 December 2006,
one-third of India’s rural population, or over 200 million, still live on less than Rs.12 a day!

The report revealed that Orissa, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh remain the poorest states in the country in terms of the monthly per capita consumer expenditure (MPCE) of rural population and that 10 per cent of the All India Rural Population is living at just Rs.9 a day, and this, after nearly half a century of Congress rule.

In Madhya Pradesh, 47 per cent of the rural population is reported living on Rs.12 a day followed by Bihar and Jharkhand (46 per cent), Uttar Pradesh (33 per cent), Karnataka (32 per cent) and Maharashtra (30 per cent). Under the circumstances, to insist that one particular community should be given first claim on national resources is adding insult to injury.

Fancy a state like Madhya Pradesh where half the population lives on less than Rs.12 a day! For that sum, one can’t get even a cup of coffee in a C Class restaurant. According to Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, the Prime Minister’s concerns would be taken on a priority basis, hinting that the issue of greater help to the Muslim minority would be taken up in right earnest, despite the fact that the Planning Commission is a nonpolitical body and will ultimately come under the Parliament Scan.

Trying to win votes through aggressive minorityism may sound clever but if the Congress does not realise that dividing the people along religious lines was part of M. A. Jinnah’s technique to divide the country, it has failed to learn from history, Muslims in India have to a large extend remained poor not because they are Muslims, but because they have no leadership.

The Kutchis of Gujarat many of them Muslims control the retail chains in England. Surely, what the Kutchis can do in the retail field, others can do in other fields?

According to Arif Mohammad Khan, a former Union Minister (who had resigned from Rajiv Gandhi’s cabinet in 1986 to protest against the decision of the government to overturn the Supreme Court’s judgement in the Shah Banoo maintenance case), it is the so-called `Hindu secular leadership’ that has been responsible for promoting “the most ugly face of Muslim separatism after partition”. He has a point.

It is a well-known fact that as early as in 1952, when there were general elections, Congress candidates went out of their way to secure support of old members of the Muslim League who had stayed back in India, and in most cases, dropped their own Muslim colleagues who had spent years with them in jail, just to satisfy the leaguers who, may it be remembered, used to laugh at Muslim Congressmen like Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, as “showboys”. Congress, it would seem is incapable of learning.

Those who refuse to learn from the past by repeating it are condemned to pay for their mistakes in future. Besides, what is it that the Congress-led UPA government has to show? Shibu Soren who has been sentenced to ten years’ imprisonment, the first sitting Union Minister to be successfully charged with murder? Natwar Singh had to resign from his post as Foreign Minister charged with corruption?

A nuclear pact with the United States under which India will have to put as many as 14 nuclear reactors under safeguard compared to only four today and in the context of the situation existing in the five nuclear weapons states putting only eleven out of their 237 reactors under safeguards? Don’t we have any sense of selfrespect? The so-called 123 pact is silent on universal nuclear disarmament.

The white Euro-American nations can get away with murder, but apparently the UPA government is willing to sell India’s freedom for a mess of pottage. Why are we selling our future to the United States? Because we do not ourselves have uranium to feed our nuclear reactors?

According to Arun Shourie, who can be relied upon for the homework he does, India has 78,000 tonnes of Uranium reserves, enough for all the existing reactors in India and even for the manufacture of nuclear weapons from 2023 to 2028.

The so-called shortage is because there is a reluctance to acquire tribal lands which have the uranium ores. Besides, it is a fact so far hidden from public eyes that to generate 35,000 MW of electricity, India has to pay anything between Rs. 75,000 to Rs. 1 lakh crore for importing reactors from the US. The mouths of American manufacturers must be watering at the thought of making that much money.

No wonder US Congressmen voted overwhelmingly in favour of the 123 pact. Why are facts kept away from the gaze of the Indian voter? So much is made of Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) in India.

What is not revealed is that India, the fourth largest economy in the world gets only 0.8 percent of the total global FDI flows and less than 3% of total FDI flows to developing countries, whereas China gets more than 25 percent. China asserts itself. India does not.

According to Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee, China continues to occupy approximately 38,000 sq.kms. of Jammu & Kashmir territory. Under Congress regime, that too.

Is all this much to be proud of? Yes, the UPA should hold mid-term elections. It will be good for India, and it would certainly put all political parties in their place.
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[Guest]

Why BJP is ditching its most popular leaders Modi, Uma, Jaitley, Govindaswamy....?

People are bored with seeing 80+ years old faces !