2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

09-12-2007, 03:07 AM

QUOTELeft-Cong charade officially begins
Pioneer.com
Navin Upadhyay | New Delhi
Panel meet on 123 pact a mere formality
The UPA-Left committee to resolve the impasse over India-US civil nuclear agreement met on Tuesday, but the exercise has become a mere formality with both parties preparing for midterm polls.Â

CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat left no one in doubt about the futility of the committee when he remarked on Monday that the Left was never going to be convinced about the adverse implication of the Hyde Act on India's nuclear sovereignty.

The heightened war of words between the two parties after the formation of the committee has signalled the growing divide and crystallisation of opinion in the two camps and set the ball rolling towards a midterm poll.

Sources in both the camps have indicated that the deadline for the demise of the 13th Lok Sabha is fast approaching and the cookie would crumble around the year-end when India begins negotiation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Sources said that the Government wanted to bide its time and carry on with the uneasy truce with the Left parties till the US Congress takes up the India-US civil nuclear deal for its final approval after the finalisation of the negotiation with the IAEA and NSG. Sources said that senior Congress and Left leaders have entered into an unstated understanding that the Government should be allowed to run till then.

At the same time, both the Left and the Congress have already set in motion their election machineries.

The Left's countrywide protest against the nuclear deal and strategic alliance with the US was part of the same exercise. The CPI(M) has also taken steps to set its house in order and bring in line the West Bengal leaders, who were opposed to destablising the UPA Government. The task has nearly been achieved and even someone like State Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee and Marxist patriarch Jyoti Basu have joined the hardliners.

Sources said that the CPI(M) leadership is now going to turn its attention to the infighting in Kerala and take a fresh view on the suspension of Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan and State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan from the Polit Bureau.

The Left may have all along rejected the idea of forming a third alternative, but the comrades have started the spadework for a tie-up with the Telegu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh after the expected disintegration of the newly-floated UNPA.

On the other hand, the Congress is expected to embark on a major exercise to woo the minority community, middle class Government employees, farmers and unorganised sector workers.

With the Muslims bitterly opposed to the India-US nuclear deal, the Congress is under pressure to take concrete steps on the recommendations of the Sachar Committee and Rangnath Mishra Commission. The weeks ahead could see some major announcements to woo the Muslims.

At the same time, the Government is also seriously thinking of implementing the Sixth Pay Commission, which is expected to submit its report any day. This could be a major plank to woo Government employees. Last month, the Government doled out a six per cent hike in Dearness Allowance, which is the highest such single installment since the UPA Government came to power. The bonanza came even though the inflation is as low as 4 per cent. The decision is seen as a clear signal that the midterm polls are round the corner.

Another giveaway to the midterm poll is the sudden thrust on addressing the long-term pending demands of unorganised sector workers. By announcing measures to provide health insurance to nearly 40 crore such workers, the Government has taken a major policy decision that could be highlighted during the polls.

There were indications that the Government will also soon clear the relief and rehabilitation polices proposed by the Group of Ministers. This would be a sop to farmers who are opposed to the Special Economic Zones.

With both sides deciding to buy time, the UPA-Left committee meeting on Tuesday decided to discuss the implications of the Hyde Act on the 123 Agreement and on self-reliance in India's nuclear sector on September 19. .

The first meeting of the committee, headed by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, decided to frame the broad issues to be taken up for discussion later.

Besides the implications of the Hyde Act, the 15-member panel also decided to discuss the implications of the deal on foreign policy and security cooperation, Mukherjee told reporters after a meeting.

Apart from Mukherjee, the meeting was attended by leaders of the four Left parties- Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury (both CPI-M), AB Bardhan, D Raja (both CPI), Debabrata Biswas (Forward Bloc) and TJ Chandrachoodan (RSP).

Mukherjee's Cabinet colleagues representing the Congress-led coalition included -- AK Antony, P Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal, Saifuddin Soz, Prithviraj Chavan, Lalu Prasad of RJD, TR Baalu of DMK and NCP chief Sharad Pawar.

Talking to reporters after the 45-minute meeting, CPI general secretary A B Bardhan said the points of reference of the committee would be "the implications of the Hyde Act, the implications on our foreign policy, the implications on our nuclear programme and security cooperation." Asked whether the confusion on 'operationalisation' of the deal was resolved, he said, "What is the confusion? There is no confusion."

On whether any experts would be invited for the next meeting on September 19, he merely said "no experts are needed."

ramana · 09-12-2007, 03:09 AM

I read that L K Advani met up with Shiv Sena's representative to patchup.

09-12-2007, 03:19 AM

QUOTELet bygone be bygone, BJP, Shiv Sena agree 
Yogesh Vajpeyi | New Delhi
Advani, Uddhav meet to cement ties
Ironing out contentious issues that had soured their relations since the presidential election, the BJP and the Shiv Sena have decided to continue their 20-year-old alliance and fight the Congress-led Governments in Maharashtra and New Delhi.

"We will further consolidate our alliance, which is based on our shared belief in Hindutva, so that we can dislodge the Congress and its allies from power," Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray told mediapersons on Tuesday.

Flanked by BJP national general secretary Gopinath Munde and the party's State chief Nitin Gadkari, Udhav admitted that some misunderstandings had developed between the two allies after the Shiv Sena backed UPA nominee Pratibha Patil in the presidential election.

"But we have sorted out things and forgotten recent strains in our longstanding relationship," he announced after a meeting with senior BJP leader LK Advani and party chief Rajnath Singh.

Party sources said Advani had played a key role in bringing together Udhav Thackeray and the BJP leaders from Maharashtra, who had been clamouring for parting of ways.
..........


Everyone is busy forming alliance,
till now -

BJP+ Shiv Sena + AIIDMK +JD(U) + SAD

Congress + DMK + RJD

Lets see which side Paswan jumps.

ramana · 09-12-2007, 04:48 AM

Mudy, So Paswan is the key? How and who does he effect? You have mentioned his name before as a key indicator. Isnt he against Lalu? And in Bihar, Nitish Kumar is strong?

09-12-2007, 08:55 AM

Paswan switch sides according to which side wind is blowing, he is well supported by caste promoters, semi social and Middle East NGOs. This man started whole six yard of reservation and so-called affirmative agenda in private sector. He lacks number of MP or MLA, but is a good spoiler for any party and India. He works for vested group who tag with any group who is in power. Currently recovering from heart surgery, not sure how active he will be in election, because he had not made any move and very much sidelined by media.

There are couple of migrating birds -
Paswan
PMK
AIIDMK
TDP
Ajit Singh

ramana · 09-12-2007, 09:46 PM

QUOTEThere are couple of migrating birds -
Paswan
PMK
AIIDMK
TDP
Ajit Singh

TDP will stick to Left as they think the IM vote is important to them to defeat the INC in AP.
AIIDMK is making moves towards NDA as DMK is with INC. PMK might follow where AIIDMK goes.
Ajit Singh might jump on winning bandwagon.

09-13-2007, 01:23 AM

QUOTEAfter the Shiv Sena 
The Pioneer Edit Desk
Mr Advani's hunt for State allies
In renewing his party's alliance with the Shiv Sena, Mr LK Advani has brought some much-needed reassurance to the BJP's preparations for the mid-term election that now appears inevitable. In the 2004 national poll, the difference between the Congress's victory and the BJP's defeat was the effort put into building State-level alliances with regional parties. While the then ruling party was over-confident -- it made a mess of negotiations or simply opted for the wrong choice in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Assam and Haryana -- Ms Sonia Gandhi walked the extra mile to woo partners. Given the fractured, federalised nature of the polity, national parties have to work assiduously towards building pan-Indian coalitions. The BJP's record at keeping the NDA united and efficacious while in Opposition has been patchy. In the past two years, the party leadership has ignored the imperatives of coalition maintenance. Individuals have been encouraged to attack such undemanding partners as the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa. On the other hand, the fear of losing the crumbs of office has had the BJP bending over backwards in its fairly debilitating relationship with the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka. Allies have been allowed to drift away, the Shiv Sena's support of Ms Pratibha Patil's bid for the presidency being a case in point.

Given this troubled backdrop, the BJP needs to get cracking on its State alliances if it is serious about being seen as a contender for power in New Delhi. After calming the waters with the Shiv Sena, Mr Advani has to take it upon himself to effect credible and effective combinations in Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Assam. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP's natural pro-Telangana position -- sabotaged by a section of the leadership in recent years -- has to be brought back to centre-stage. It must be used to court the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. In Jharkhand, even if the redoubtable Babulal Marandi is not brought back into the party, he has to be accommodated in the broader NDA family in some manner or the other. In Assam, it is imperative for the BJP to go with the AGP, its natural ally. In 2004, the self-importance of State units and the smugness of the central leadership led to the BJP brushing aside the nitty-gritty of coalition-building. While in Opposition, the party ship has been steered by those who have appeared insufficiently alive to the reality that a national election is, at least these days, won in the States. With his return to the forefront of BJP strategy making, Mr Advani will hopefully rectify these shortcomings. After all, he was the man who piloted the BJP's transformation from a so-called 'untouchable' to a magnet for almost two dozen parties in the 1998 and 1999 elections. He has what it takes.

It is a sobering thought that the Congress-led UPA remains intact and is likely to go into an election untroubled and untouched by the virus of disunity. With the exception of Mr Ram Vilas Paswan -- who could, conceivably, put up candidates of his own in Bihar -- and perhaps the junior Dravida parties, no alliance partner is likely to damage the integrity of the ruling coalition as it seeks re-election. The RJD in Bihar and the DMK in Tamil Nadu are solidly behind the Congress. This is an advantage that cannot be sneezed at. That is why, Mr Advani's attempt to revitalise the NDA has come not a day too soon.

09-13-2007, 06:26 AM

QUOTE(ramana @ Sep 12 2007, 09:46 PM)TDP will stick to Left as they think the IM vote is important to them to defeat the INC in AP.


My reading about TDP and Left alliance is slighly different from yours. TDP did not lose any IM vote of AP even when they are in NDA. No one counts the IM vote in HYD as it goes solidly to MIM and hence no competetion here.

The real reason for Left alliance in AP is they have about 5% of vote in AP and in some constituencies they can make or break the potential winner.

The Left already made a statement that they will go with congress irrespective of UPA - Left relations. As per them they will either go with congress or TDP but not alone. TDP is under pressure to cover the lost ground. They will not take risk and hence will go with Left.

Regarding TDP - NDA: They will support NDA after elections in case TDP comes back to power in the state.

ramana · 09-13-2007, 10:44 AM

Yeah but the Lok Sabha elections and the State legislature elections wont be concurrent now. So TDP will have to chose where they want to be.

09-13-2007, 08:01 PM

QUOTE(ramana @ Sep 13 2007, 10:44 AM)Yeah but the Lok Sabha elections and the State legislature elections wont be concurrent now. So TDP will have to chose where they want to be.
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That is the predicament for TDP. Most of their members' soul is with NDA and are playing differently.

I guess when such a situation occurs they will play according to the final required numbers of NDA after the election.

09-13-2007, 10:52 PM

SP to break Brahmins' 'illusionment' towards BSP: MulayamQUOTELucknow, Sep 13: Stung by the formidable combination of Dalits-Brahamin in the recent assembly polls engineered by the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) today announced its alliance with Sanatan Samaj Party ''aimed at breaking the illusion of the Brahmins that the ruling party was with them.''

''We would work with Sanatan Samaj Party to works towards 'bhram bhanjan' breaking of an illusion) that the BSP was favouring Brahmins and other upper castes...It only used their votes to come to power. Now it is not helping these communities in any way,'' former Chief Minister and SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav told reporters here.

He alleged that the atrocities on Brahmins, Yadavs and Kshatriyas were on the rise during the present rule of Mayawati-led BSP government in UP.

Sanatan Samaj Party national president Kripashanker Mishra said his party's 840 units spread across 10 states would work with the SP from now on. ''The principal aim of the alliance is to free all the brahmins from the BSP's spell...despite giving as much as Rs 50 lakh to get a BSP ticket and winning the assembly elections, several brahmins are being treated as bonded labourers in the BSP,'' he alleged adding that the two parties would initially launch a state-wide and later a nation-wide programme to expose the BSP.

''Hindu is neither a religion nor a caste. The alliance would help the SP take on the BJP and the VHP who had been using the term Hindu to exploit sentiments of the common man,'' Mr Yadav said.

SP general secretary and Rajya Sabha member Amar Singh had held a series of talks with the Sanatan Samaj Party before cobbling up the alliance

09-14-2007, 08:58 PM

Govt approves RIL gas price | Paswan, CPI-M cry foul

Sonia is paying private plane usage fee in kind to Mukesh Ambani, don't forget she is flying again to US, after South Africa and Russia, bills are piling up, but Pawasn nose is working, he is swifting. Moving away from Congress. <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />

09-15-2007, 12:04 AM

09-16-2007, 12:37 AM

My gut feeling, Laloo may say good bye to UPA. "Lord Ram" factor and his religious belief, I don't think he will stay, if he stays he may have to say good bye to Bihar and Yadavs.
At street level, people are very angry. More they delay apology, worst it will get for current government to work. Never seen such a reaction from everybody, I was too young to see reaction during Emergency days, but this is equivalent to Nuclear bomb. If current government is not realizing this, it means they donât understand street.

09-16-2007, 03:20 AM

Little bit old article, things will change now.
The allied attack

09-16-2007, 09:12 PM

QUOTECongress eyeing tie-up with arch-rivals 

Amidst speculation about mid-term polls, the Congress appears to be examining the possibility of expanding the UPA by taking even arch-rivals Samajwadi Party and BSP on board.

Uttar Pradesh PCC president Salman Khurshid insists that the approach to face future challenges is to take forward the spirit that brought the party to the centrestage via the coalition route.

Making a strong pitch for pre-poll alliances, Khurshid said that in the matter of tie-ups, the approach should be one of "planned parenthood instead of chance parenthood."

Suggesting that the doors of the alliance were open to parties of all hues apart from the saffron brigade that will be in the "negative list" of Congress.

In an interview to PTI, Khurshid sought to extend the olive branch to the Samajwadi Party, saying the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party "became allergic to us and we were never allergic to them."

Seeking to go the extra mile to woo the Mayawati-led BSP, he said that party could be a "very valued passenger" in the "big train that is going to travel fast with a powerful engine."

"They have to decide whether they want to board the train," he said, referring to BSP, whose victory in Uttar Pradesh polls is being regarded as a defining moment in Indian politics.

Khurshid's constraint is that there could be differences with these parties on specific issues, but not on basic ideology. There has been no fixed formula for an alliance but this could be evolved through a dialogue, he said.Â 

My Take: If congress succeeds then they will be back to power. Especially if they take BSP as pre-poll alliance then it is going to help congress big time. There are many states like AP, Maharastra etc where dalits are solidly in the camp of Congress and would help the vote bank to stay intact. In states like MP, Rajastan they will be now UPA and not just BSP.
Regarding SP also they will consolidate the Muslim vote into UPA which I don't think any useful for congress beyond UP but UP is too big.

Regarding Laloo, I can gaurantee no matter whether Ram exists or not, they will stayput with UPA as they see chance of returning back in Bihar are bleak.

Regarding NDA, trying for either BSP or SP might not have the same effect as compared to that of congress. NDA should try NCP, SS and BJP combo in Maharastra and that would be lethal.

09-17-2007, 12:56 AM

I will wait for another 10 days to see new equation or trend. Lot of meetings are on among different groups.
PMK will join with AIIDMK, DMK will bring down government, so may endup sobbing in south. Infight will also effect them.

QUOTERegarding Laloo, I can gaurantee no matter whether Ram exists or not, they will stayput with UPA as they see chance of returning back in Bihar are bleak
He will be biggest loser. Not sure whether he can even save his own seat. His gundas are in jail.

**acharya** · 09-17-2007, 02:22 AM

The Ram rift a major threat to UPA alliance
CNN-IBN
TimePublished on Monday , September 17, 2007 at 00:08 in Nation section
New Delhi: The cracks in the UPA have begun to show. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, M Karunanidhi, has minced no words in deploring the Centre's flip-flop on the Sethusamudram project.

Karunanidhi has done this even though he knows that the decision to withdraw the controversial ASI affidavit was taken on Congress President, Sonia Gandhi's instructions.

Says Karunanidhi, "They (the UPA Government) first said Ram was a fiction of public imagination and then the next day, they refuted that same claim. What kind of self-respecting Government would do that?"

And the DMK â the Congress's biggest ally â has its own reasons to be worried. The Sethusamudram project has been a longstanding poll promise of the DMK, and any rollback now would result in tremendous loss of face for Karunanidhi especially because his bete noire Jayalalithaa is against the project.

But in the north of the Vindhyas, regional parties are worried the issue could give the BJP a chance to revive its fortunes.

Meanwhile, the Congress' other major ally, the NCP, too is in no doubt that the Centre erred in denying Ram's existence.

Says Civil Aviation Minister, Praful Patel, "Shri Ram is an integral part of Indian culture and history. We call for strict action against those that have played with nation's sentiments."

The coalition which stood united on the nuclear deal is now showing signs of coming apart. The Ram Sethu has exposed the divisions within the UPA as never before.

09-17-2007, 04:09 AM

<img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/specool.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='specool.gif' /> Mid-term election early next year: Advani
UPA to pay price for Ram, N-deal, price rise
Tribune News Service

Jalandhar, September 16
The UPA government, already under strain from its Left allies, will fall early next year on the issues of Ram, N-deal and the galloping prices of essential commodities.

Giving a clarion call to the BJP cadres at a function to facilitate the newly elected mayors and councillors of the four civic bodies in the state here today, former Deputy Prime Minister and Lok Sabha Opposition leader Lal Krishan Advani said it was a miracle that the ruling âbundle of contradictionsâ had come so far.

Advani, who appeared to be in an upbeat mood and was projected as the future PM during the function, congratulated the municipal poll winners and exhorted them to be ready for the impending general election next year. âThere is no way the government can last its full term and the writing is on the wall,â he pointed out.

Citing three reasons for his conviction, he said the government had not done anything for the masses. âAlthough we have attracted foreign investment in certain core sectors, in what way has it benefited the masses. The prices of atta and dal are bringing tears to the eyes of the people, but has the government tried to stem price rise,â he questioned.

The second reason was the double talk on the N-deal wherein an impression had been created that the NDA government had initiated the talks and that the present government was only carrying it forward. He clarified that they differed with the Left on the issue as they were against signing a deal with any riders which would jeopardise Indiaâs national interests.

Third, as if things were not bad enough, the government submitted an affidavit in the court questioning the very existence of Lord Ram. The ploy was to sidetrack the Ram Setu issue by raising a doubt on the authenticity of the holy texts. Ramayana was sought to be dismissed as an exemplary work of a great novelist, he quipped.

The move has backfired and people would give a befitting reply to this insult in the coming elections, he added.

ramana · 09-17-2007, 11:34 PM

They should be careful of LKA's security. Often BJP leaders are getting offed. Look at Pramod Mahajan.

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