2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

09-18-2007, 01:10 AM

QUOTECongress civil war 
The Pioneer Edit Desk
From Ram Setu to Kurukshetra
The final days of a coalition are usually a free for all. The experience of the two Janata Party regimes and of the National Front and United Front Governments would bear this out; Cabinet colleagues, particularly those from different caste or socialist factions of the great tumult called cow-belt politics, begin planting stories against each other, calling each other names. It is expected that national parties -- the Congress and the BJP -- are mature enough to keep themselves above such squabbling. Yet, if the past week be anything to go by, the 'Third Front' virus has afflicted the Congress, too. The realisation that the UPA arrangement is close to the finish line and that elections are imminent has resulted in an unseemly positioning game. Suddenly conscious of public standing and the need to appear politically sensitive, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi have allowed their spin doctors to run a proxy war, claiming credit for the withdrawal of the Archaeological Survey of India's offending affidavit. While a Cabinet meeting chaired by the Prime Minister agreed that the affidavit was out of line and took a decision to revise it, even before the news could reach the Press the publicity machinery at 10 Janpath had appropriated the initiative.

Next, Ms Ambika Soni, the Union Culture Minister -- the ASI is under her charge and she is supposed to have personally vetted the affidavit -- was attacked by her junior colleague, Mr Jairam Ramesh, the Minister of State for Commerce and Industry. Mr Ramesh urged Ms Soni to resign on moral grounds. Ms Soni responded by snubbing her former protÃ©gÃ© -- Mr Ramesh has long moved out of Ms Soni's shadow and attempted to carve an independent identity in the Family Loyalty Matrix that is so crucial in the Congress. Following this, Mr RK Dhawan -- once the all-powerful personal assistant to Mrs Indira Gandhi, but now an out-of-work MP -- asked both the Ministers to essentially shut up and pack their bags. Indeed, if the Ram Setu issue is being kept alive in the public sphere, it is substantially due to the internal bickering in the Congress itself. Personal scores are being settled, two rival factions of the Congress president's loyalists are playing out a civil war. Perhaps they are also putting in early bids for key managerial roles in the party's election campaign.Â <!--emo& Big Grin

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' />

The drama is likely to end with Ms Soni offering to put in her papers; the Congress seems to have decided that it needs a scapegoat. What is more disquieting is that the ruling party appears to have decided that tokenism and the orchestrated sacking of a single Minister is enough redressal for a sustained policy of insensitivity to mainstream Indian concerns. That aside, the energies and focus of party functionaries and even Ministers seem to be on jockeying for jobs and devising platforms for the coming election rather than on more immediate matters. This leads to a larger point, of course -- how long can one sustain a Government that has lost the desire to govern? Rather than go through the charade of talks with the Left, why not simply call it quits and go in for an election now? After all, that is clearly what the Jairam Rameshes and RK Dhawans -- and their hidden manipulators -- are waiting for.

09-18-2007, 06:41 AM

QUOTE(ramana @ Sep 17 2007, 11:34 PM)They should be careful of LKA's security. Often BJP leaders are getting offed. Look at Pramod Mahajan.
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Absolutely True.

BTW will there be Z-Grade for LKA after the dissolution of LS? But BJP, RSS should watch the backs of important folks.

09-18-2007, 07:47 PM

QUOTENDA should try NCP, SS and BJP combo in Maharastra and that would be lethal.

NCP with NDA is out of question till Pawar is at helm. He's got all his fingers in lucrative agriculture and cricket gravy trains and it's highly unlikely that he jump off any time soon.

09-18-2007, 07:51 PM

On Rediff: Congress may have an ace up its sleeve

QUOTEBut that is not the viewpoint of the CW -- conventional wisdom. CW thinks that it is only a matter of time before Mayawati herself is prime minister, as she builds this coalition across the nation. Let me see, Dalits are 16 per cent of the population, Muslims 13 per cent, upper caste about 21 per cent. That is half the votes without counting the fact that men are 52 per cent, women 48 per cent. Irony again, but this is what the Congress had thought for at least a 100 years.


QUOTEBut that is not the viewpoint of the CW -- conventional wisdom. CW thinks that it is only a matter of time before Mayawati herself is prime minister, as she builds this coalition across the nation. Let me see, Dalits are 16 per cent of the population, Muslims 13 per cent, upper caste about 21 per cent. That is half the votes without counting the fact that men are 52 per cent, women 48 per cent. Irony again, but this is what the Congress had thought for at least a 100 years.


QUOTEIf elections were held today, would Congress depart significantly from 140-plus seats? Unlikely. But as every election since 1996 has shown (and there have been four), the era of coalition governments means that the winner is one with the better political partners. And Mayawati will lose more than gain by going with the NDA; she has no choice but to politically ally herself with the Congress, and both know it.


QUOTEThe BJP will have to find another Vajpayee, i.e. a pragmatic person who believes religion belongs in the privacy of homes. Until it does so, the Congress can hope to muddle along, and who knows, help bring about an economic reform or two.

ramana · 09-20-2007, 03:19 AM

No Comment.
Naidu at Ifthar party in Hyderabad.

<img src='http://www.deccan.com/Hyderabad%20chronicle/20PAV16.jpg' border='0' alt='user posted image' />

09-23-2007, 12:27 AM

Who's Afraid Of The BJP?
The UPA and secularists. Why else would they worry after this blooper?

09-28-2007, 07:27 AM

<!--emo&

--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /> Cong, BJP ally to keep Left out of DUTA

Durgesh Nandan Jha | New Delhi

The Congress and the BJP have joined hands in Delhi University to keep the Left out of the Delhi University Teachers' Association (DUTA) Executive Committee. Academics on Action and Development (AAD) chairman SS Rathi, supported by the Congress has joined hands with BJP supported National Democratic Teachers' Front (NDTF) to keep the Left supported Democratic Teachers' Front (DTF) out of the fray. But interestingly, Ashwini Shankar, who is a senior Congress functionary and had polled highest votes in the DUTA elections, has not been included in the group. The decision was taken in the meeting of the DUTA Executive held on Thursday to elect the DUTA office-bearers.

Apparently, a meeting was held at the Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC) office chaired by JP Agarwal to sort out the differences between the Congress factions but without any result. When asked, AAD member and new DUTA president Aditya Narayan Mishra said that Shankar was offered to choose a co-opted member but he wanted office, which was not possible. "We offered him to choose a co-opted member for the executive Committee but he wanted to become office bearer, which was not possible. There are only four posts for the office bearers and the candidates were pre-decided," said Mishra. However, when contacted, Shankar said that Mishra or any other senior functionary of AAD did not contact him. Shankar is a long time member of the Delhi State Congress and had been contesting DUTA elections on the tickets of Congress affiliated Indian National teachers' Congress (INTEC) for more than a decade. This year, he was not given a ticket from INTEC and contested DUTA elections independently. He polled second highest votes in the elections held on August 29.

AAD and INTEC, that contested the DUTA elections together this year, had eight candidates elected for the executive committee and they needed one more to get majority. When Shankar refused, they joined hands with NDTF that had two candidates elected on the executive committee. The Left could not have even a single candidate either in the executive committee of DUTA or as co-opted member. "DTF had proposed five members for cooption. Out of them, two were rejected because their consent was not there. In the remaining three, they got only four votes from their group whereas, three members proposed by AAD and two by NDTF got 10 votes each and were elected," said AAD member. The new composition of DUTA has, three office bearers from INTEC and one from AAD. In cooption, there are three members of AAD and two of NDTF.

10-01-2007, 02:52 AM

Congress loses nuclear edge
Arun NehruQUOTEThe BJP, which has been on the defensive for quite some time, gets a clear advantage and opportunity to make amends in the States it rules in the north, and with its anticipated 'sweep' in Gujarat, it is likely to cross a hundred plus mark in the Lok Sabha. One may witness old and new allies making new approaches to the NDA. The BJP might get a reprieve, but is still very accident-prone, as its succession plans are blurred. The recent Ram Setu controversy cannot be taken for granted, and I think the next few months while going into the Gujarat election will give every party an opportunity to review the immediate past and take corrective action for the future.

I don't think the UPA Government will fall if the Left opposes the nuclear deal, as there are many others who will fill the breach. Mid-term poll suits the BSP, the ADMK, the TDP and the JD(U), but other political parties are not ready for any political battle. The Congress is likely to gain, but its advantage can be whittled away in the north -- Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Its performance will also be affected in Delhi, Haryana and Maharashtra, besides Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The next few months will see the Ram Setu controversy being blown up in full measure, and I think the Left and the Samajwadi Party are wise to keep silent on the matter. The DMK family wars are already making things difficult for the party, and its views on Ram Setu will only complicate matters for the UPA.

Who will fill gap?
After Lord Ram issue, soon Congress will change into untouchables.
Arun Nehru was involved in Bano case and later opening of Ayodhya Gate, which completly destroyed Congress comeback. Why he still thinks Ram Setu will keep Congress floating?
I think COngress will change into Muslim, Christians party.

10-01-2007, 05:01 AM

Has Arun Nehru left BJP 'coz last I remember is that he contested from BJP. Corectme, if there is any change.If it's still true, I don't think he has any ulterior motive going against BJP.
RE: Psephology
Even before joining BJP, he was doing the same which probably is his main source of livelihood.
Even Arun Singh came out of his retirement during Kargil to work with Jaswant Singh.

10-01-2007, 06:14 AM

QUOTEHas Arun Nehru left BJP 
No, Not politically active, Heart condition is prime reason.

10-01-2007, 10:21 PM

IB report sees BJP, UPA slide in early polls, key with BSP

QUOTEIn the event of a midterm Lok Sabha poll, the Congress will not gain seats, says a top secret Intelligence Bureau report prepared for the prime minister's eyes only.

QUOTEThe silver lining in the report for the Congress is that the biggest loser will be the its main rival and main opposition party in Parliament Bharatiya Janata Party as its number in the Lok Sabha is assessed to drop from the present 131 to any where between 95 and 100.


QUOTEIt says the Congress will get 150 to 155 seats as against 150 seats it has in the Lok Sabha now while the tally of its two main allies -- the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Lalu Prasad and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam of M Karunanidhi -- will shrink. DMK's number may drop from the present 16 to anywhere between five and eight while the AIADMK that had drawn blank in the last election may get 12 to 15 seats. The RJD's strength is expected to fall from 24 to 10-12.

Among the losers will be the Samajwadi Party of former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav whose number may drop from 38 in the Lok Sabha to 8 to 10 while Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party may shoot up its strength in the House from 18 to anywhere between 40 and 45, including some seats from outside UP.

10-01-2007, 11:44 PM

link
QUOTEI believe political accidents will continue to take place, and as we get into the election mode, we will find many leaks and spills. The Government of the day always leaks from the top. A loyal media with strong vested interests is of little help in these complications. There are few alternatives to quick decision-making.
Above quote is from Arun Nehru's recent article. Congress managers were very good in buying loyalties from media and business house.
Any report which is coming out of "Loyal media" (Rediff, HT, TOI) should be seen by pinch of salt.

ramana · 10-01-2007, 11:49 PM

The reality is that babudom is with INC. And where babu's are the janata is.
The babu's want economic growth as a solution to most of the problems facing the country and feel that MMS can deliver on this.

NDA has to make a compact with them to assure that economic growth will be paramount and all contentious issues will be subservient to that. And that means no out of turn talk by RSS and any other folks.

**acharya** · 10-03-2007, 02:46 AM

Get well soon, BJP tells 'mentally ill' Congress
Agencies
Posted online: Tuesday , October 02, 2007 at 12:00:00

New Delhi, October 2: BJP latched on to 'Gandhigiri' to tell the Congress to âget well soonâ as it was going through a stage of âmental illnessâ.

"On this day, inspired by Munnabhai's Gandhigiri, I would like to say get well soon to Congress as they are suffering from mental illness," BJP chief Rajnath Singh said while attending a dharna organised on Ram Setu issue.

Singh claimed the Congress was trying to âinsultâ Lord Ram due to its âmental illnessâ.

Singh also alleged that Congress was pursuing a politics of âcompetitive vote-bank politicsâ.

The BJP held the day-long dharna across the country to protest against the Centre's affidavit in Supreme Court on Ram Setu and to demand dismissal of DMK government in Tamil Nadu for Chief Minister M Karunanidhi's alleged âblasphemousâ remarks.

10-09-2007, 01:42 AM

Karat meets Sonia as Left, Cong spat heats upQUOTEUPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi on Monday had an unscheduled meeting with President Pratibha Patil, causing flutters in political circles.

There was no official word on what transpired during their 30-minute meeting at Rashtrapati Bhavan which began around 12 noon.

The meeting comes two days after Gandhi expressing Congress' readiness to face general elections


Basu hits back, says CPM ready for electionsQUOTEReferring to Congress President Sonia Gandhi's speech on Sunday, he said if she wanted elections, they were also ready though they did not favour it.

"I have spoken to (Prakash) Karat and (Sitaram) Yechury after the meeting with Pranab Mukherjee. I told them to listen to what he (Mukherjee) had to say, to see if it is possible to work out a compromise," Basu told reporters in Kolkata.

10-09-2007, 02:37 AM

QUOTEEC gets into election mode 
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
Advances roll revision to Jan 1
Mid-term elections in March next year became imminent on Monday with the Election Commission asking States and Union Territories to be prepared with the revised electoral rolls by mid-January.Â

In a review meeting of the State Chief Electoral Officers (CEO) called on Monday, Chief Election Commissioner N Gopalaswami along with the two Election Commissioners ordered that the electoral rolls revised as on January 1, 2008 be ready by January 15.

Sources said that the roll revision work was earlier expected to be completed by January-end and by advancing it the EC has sent a clear signal that it is preparing itself for holding early polls in view of the present political instability.

According to EC sources, the CEOs of 14 States and Union Territories took part in the meeting on Monday. The officers belonged to South and Western States. The Commission intends to hold another round of talks with the CEOs of the remaining States from the North and Eastern regions of the country.

With the Left all set to pull the plug over the nuclear deal issue, the Commission's preparedness has come as a positive sign for the Congress, which seems to be itching for an early poll.

Once the States and the Union Territories publish the electoral lists by mid-January, the Commission will invite objections, if any, from political parties and organisations. Usually, this process takes almost a month, sources indicated.

Within a month after receipt of objections, the Commission will publish the revised electoral rolls. Any changes to the list are also incorporated during this period. "If the objections come in by mid-February, the Government can go for polls by March-end," the sources said.

The Election Commission spokesperson while reacting to the heightened speculation clarified it was a routine exercise carried out every year by bringing fresh electoral rolls with January 1 as the base date. According to him, the direction was given at a review meeting held with CEOs of States and Union Territories from Southern and Western India, which is normal in such circumstances, he added.

Besides electoral rolls, the Commission sought a review of the steps initiated in States to increase the Election Photo Identity Cards (EPIC) coverage. The meeting further discussed rationalisation of polling stations and the use of Geographical Information System (GIS) in election management, the spokesperson said.

Officials explained that the revision was an ongoing exercise, called summary revision. However, the Commission has prepared itself to meet any exigency in view of the prevailing political uncertainty, sources added.

10-11-2007, 12:15 AM

The Bottom Line | What will Congress show for seeking a fresh poll?
QUOTEBut, what issues will the Congress use in seeking a fresh mandate? A successful nuclear deal with the US doesnât work for the party given the esoteric nature of the agreement and the rather long-range benefits for the average voter. Plus it is something that can easily turn on its head as in making the Congress party look like it is in the American camp. Focusing on the âBush is our best friendâ theme is sure to drive away minorities voters in hordes into the fold of other non-BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) parties. The anathema toward US President George Bush among Indian Muslims is strong and the Congress partyâs overt attempts to woo them through Sachar Committee-led sops could easily backfire, especially if seen as just election-eve gimmicks.
Nor can the Congress talk about the Leftâs objections to implementing a slew of economic reforms that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wanted the government to initiate, for the common man is either not bothered about some of them (like say pension reforms) or is concerned about the impact of others, such as foreign direct investment in, say, retailing.
The party will thus be forced to highlight its record in governance over the last three years and seek a fresh and bigger mandate to run a stable government at the Centre. This gamble hasnât worked for the BJP, which similarly believed that it had an unmatched record in governance in 2004. I wonder if it will work for the Congress.


QUOTEThe second factor that the Congress seems to be oblivious of is the leadership issue, much as the party cadres may display a hysterical make-believe exhilaration over the appointment of Rahul Gandhi as its general secretary.
Far from enthusing the young voters, Gandhiâs projection as prime ministerâeither overtly or covertlyâmay actually work against the partyâs interests.

10-11-2007, 01:40 AM

QUOTEGovt puts off talks with IAEA, NSG
Pioneer.com
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
Cong gives in to mounting pressure from poll-shy allies
Lalu, Pawar 'convince' Sonia to put deal in cold storage
The Government seems to have caved in under pressure of the allies to avert the possibility of mid-term polls and delay the slated negotiations with the IAEA and NSG for the next three months.

While there was no official word from the Government, the UPA allies have claimed that the Congress leadership has conveyed to them that they should not worry about political instability at this juncture.

The development comes amid reports that several UPA allies like the RJD, NCP and the DMK were totally opposed to going to the polls on the issue of India-US nuclear deal.

In fast changing political scenario, this could not be the last word on the UPA-Left stand-off on the nuclear deal since the Prime Minister's personal prestige is at stake, but the allies are convinced that the Government will not go ahead with the nuclear deal.

"We have been conveyed by the Congress leadership that the Government will not be going ahead on India-US civil nuclear agreement in the absence of consensus among the allies and the supporting Left parties," a senior Nationalist Congress Party leader told The Pioneer.

"The threat of election is over, there would be no mid-term polls now," he added.Â

10-11-2007, 02:13 AM

QUOTEParty sources indicated that Tuesday's meeting with the Left did not go very well for the Congress. RJD chief Lalu Yadav, who came down from Patna after taking time off from preparations for a massive rally, clearly indicated that the allies were not in a mood for elections. Sources said: "After an hour of deliberations, Lalu Yadav said, "Why are we talking like this? We do not want elections. We have to sort out the differences. I won't come from the next meeting if you talks of polls."

Desperate to mend fences with the Left, a copy of Sonia Gandhi's speech was shown to the Left Front leaders in the Tuesday meeting to convince them that it was not meant to offend them. The operative paragraph was marked and read out to the Left leaders who were very angry with the remarks.

The speech, delivered in Hindi, read: "Main jaanti hoon ki yahan ke saath hee saare desh mein bijli ki bahut zaroorat hai. Har star par iska prayas ho raha hai. America se isliye parmaanu samjhaute ka prastaav hai. Aapke yahan rajya sarkar ne bhi utpadan badhaane ke liye yojanayen banayi hain. Indira Gandhi Thermal power project bhi isi ka ek hissa hai."

She continued: "Desh ho ya koi pradesh, jab hum vikas ke raaste par aagey badhte hain, toh bahut se tatv us mein baadha pahunchane ki koshish karte hain. Hamen samajhana chahiye ki who sirf Congress ke hee nahin, vikas ke bhi dushman hain."
It is the last paragraph that did not go down well with the Left. However, Sonia discussed the speech personally with the Left leaders on Monday. It was again shown to the Left on Tuesday.


Who will blink is not clear? Commie and Laloo want to stay in power, congress is dreaming that they will come back with bang. I think Gujarat and HP election may tell trend in North India. South India will as usual go for Congress or commies.

10-14-2007, 12:52 AM

QUOTEWhat Left couldn't do in three months, allies did in no time
Pioneer.com
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
Analysis
For the past three months, the Left parties waged a high pitched battle to stop the India-US civil nuclear agreement, but neither the Congress nor Prime Minister Manmohan Singh yielded to their pressure. But the crunch came when the UPA allies threatened to desert the Congress. The Government resolve to push ahead with the deal was broken within hours.

Jittery over the prospect of a snap poll, the unambiguous announcement by the Prime Minister and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi on Friday that there is no chance of mid-term polls and the Government would run its full term has come as a big relief for the UPA allies.

Even before the Prime Minister and Sonia's formal declaration that the nuke deal could wait, the allies had been conveyed that the IAEA and NSG negotiations would be delayed by three months. But now that the both have gone on record, the allies feel the crisis was over.

From day one after the Left waved red flag on the deal, the UPA allies were uncomfortable about supporting the deal because of its adverse political ramifications on their vote bank, specially the Muslims. Under pressure and persuasion of the Congress leadership, they did issue half-hearted declaration of support for the deal. But they were cautious not to attack the Left parties at any stage.

Also, there was a feeling in the allies that the crisis with the Left could be resolved and the Government would survive. But the scene began to change after it became clear that the Left meant business and it was determined to withdraw support if the Government did not blink.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad took the lead and his party's national executive passed a resolution in support of the deal but with a rider that the party would set up an internal committee to study the deal.

This was a signal to the Congress that if it was not convenient to Lalu, he could come out in open to oppose the deal.

In the October 5 UPA-Left meeting, Lalu clearly told External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, "Address the concerns of the Left, I am with them."

RJD sources said that Lalu went to the extent of asking Mukherjee whether he should prepare the next Rail budget or not.

For Lalu who faced the ruling NDA in Bihar, the mid-term poll prospect was far from rosy. Just over two years in office, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar does not face any real anti-incumbency at this stage, and with LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan not willing to align with him, Lalu had everything to lose in case of a snap poll. 

Even NCP chief and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar were apprehensive of going to the polls because of farm sector crisis and continuing suicide by the farmers. Sources said Pawar was throughout in touch with the Left parties and told the Congress leadership that fighting election on the issue of nuclear deal was a losing game not only for the Congress but also for the allies. 

DMK chief Karunanidhi was also restless. His first priority seems to be to firmly install his sons and daughters at the Centre as well as in Tamil Nadu.

Paswan was in a real mess. While his voice was not so important in the UPA, he would have to take the burden of nuclear deal on which he had nothing to contribute. 

In the October 9 meeting of the UPA-Left too, Lalu and Pawar took a firm stand and persuaded Mukherjee not to go ahead with the deal without sorting out the differences with the Left parties.

Sources said that after Sonia's hard-hitting statement in Jhajjar, the UPA allies took it as a call of mid-term polls without consulting them. Lalu talked to Sonia over phone the same night and Sonia later clarified that her barbs were not aimed at the Left.

Both Lalu and Pawar conveyed to Sonia that they did not share 'Congress' euphoria over a mid-term poll.

According to DMK sources, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi too communicated a similar message to the Congress leadership.

"We have to be ready with a solution. And a mid-term poll is not a solution to the present crisis," DMK chief reportedly told the Congress high command.

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