<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+May 15 2007, 02:29 AM-->QUOTE(ramana @ May 15 2007, 02:29 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Can G.Subramaniam or someone go over the polls and see where they missed the big picture? Were the polls based on virtual reality and hence incorrect or were tehy mere propaganda to infleunce any voters?
I think this thread has links to all the polls- pre and during elections.
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OK, Mayawati;s voters are Dalits mainly
first of all, pollsters systematically underpoll the very poor and illiterates
Second, for reasons of safety, many Mayawati voters may have misled the pollsters
Here is the video of sohrabuddin, after watch make your own decision. Whether he was terrorist or not, If he was not he should be hired by Queens household.
http://www.youtube.com/vandegujarat
<!--emo&  --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> BJP prefers a weakened CM in Gujarat
13 Dec, 2007, 0426 hrs IST,Girish Kuber, TNN
AHMEDABAD: In Gujarat, even the BJP is getting the taste of Narendra Modiâs high-handed behaviour. The fact that Modi is single-handedly leading the BJP in one of the most crucial electoral battles has put the party in a peculiar position. The party is not as much worried about Modiâs come back as it is concerned about his strength. It certainly wants the incumbent chief minister to carry on the BJP flag but, on weak shoulders.
âWe are more or less sure about him coming back. His victory would propel us to a higher sphere in the looming Lok Sabha elections. Itâs important for us to take on the Congress, a top BJP leader associated with Gujarat elections told ET.
He, however, hastened to add a word of caution about the partyâs internal dynamics. âModi retaining the same strength post-election would weaken the party organisation,â he confided.
In the current house, BJP has 127 MLAs and the Congress 51 of the total 182. That the party and the organisation have taken back seat during Modiâs regime has not gone down well within the party. âModi has bulldozed the party mechanism. Itâs all only Modi, Modi and Modi alone for the party in the state. Itâs not ideal situation for the party in the long run,â he explained.
This was evident everywhere. The man at the helm in Gujarat is driving the BJP almost single-handedly. He has successfully converted the ongoing electoral battle as one between him and the Congress and not one between two parties.
âItâs the kind of personal cult that the Parivar doesnât approve of,â a senior RSS functionary from Maharashtra, involved in Gujarat said.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->BJP prefers a weakened CM in Gujarat<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is biggest garbage I have ever heard.
I can see Togadia, Singhal and Uma Bharati are playing games because traditionally they are from Congress flock.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> âModi has bulldozed the party mechanism. Itâs all only Modi, Modi and Modi alone for the party in the state. Itâs not ideal situation for the party in the long run,â he explained.
This was evident everywhere. The man at the helm in Gujarat is driving the BJP almost single-handedly. He has successfully converted the ongoing electoral battle as one between him and the Congress and not one between two parties.
âItâs the kind of personal cult that the Parivar doesnât approve of,â a senior RSS functionary from Maharashtra, involved in Gujarat said.
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This is the bull crap of highest order. It is the media and congress that pitched for Modi's blood and there is no option for BJP other than respond. It is okay to have personality cult as long as the person is doing good and is contnuing with the ideals and hindutva.
What is the problem with RSS and VHP? They are becoming more of a destroyers of Hindutva. Just shouting on the roof tops with no strategy will not help. In the current situation, BJP needs to get to power by hook or crook. Give a damn if they have to make compromises here and there. What are they going to do? They just want to remain as shilanyasanists for ever? if the BJP in what ever the form do not come to power in 2008/2009, it will be a very uphill battle against sold out media and very organized evangelical onslaught on Indian establishment. See how sweetly our top most leaders are selling of the country nuclear achivements?
The leaders of RSS and VHP are great people but collectively they are behaving worse than fools.
We need more like Modi. Every state should have one. It is ok even if all these fight for power at center.
Captain-saab,
When you post such controvorsial news, make sure that you post the source of the news too.
Before others go berserk, looks like it came from Times News Network of TOI. Since they don't identify the leader who made the statement or ti doesn't come from other reliable sources, this news has to be CongI plant.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Women in Gujarat decisively voted against Sonia Gandhiâs propaganda â Bjp to register a landslide victory</b>
link
Parth Sharma
Dec. 13, 2007
The negative propaganda of Sonia Gandhi and the Congress party backfired. The women of Gujarat voted decisively for Narendra Modi and his party BJP in the election.
The flamboyant Chief Minister portrayed an image of political purifier added to the charismatic character. It is not just the urban women from the cities that made the difference but also the women form the villages and the countryside that lined up to vote for BJP.
The male voters has fallen by nearly 3 percentage points to 62%, and at the same time the percentage of women has gone down marginally to 57%. The gap between male and female voters, which was 7% in 2002, has shrunk to 4% in 2007. That 3% gap reduction has provided the massive boost to the BJP candidates.
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Modi ascent is the periphery capturing the center as it has becme effete. The current non-BJP institutions do not have a vision and have become vested interests that are preventing the BJP from realizing its potential to take the Center. They have to be marginalized by the new comers and confined to their enclaves.
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Dec 13 2007, 11:44 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Dec 13 2007, 11:44 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Modi ascent is the periphery capturing the center as it has becme effete. The current non-BJP institutions do not have a vision and have become vested interests that are preventing the BJP from realizing its potential to take the Center. They have to be marginalized by the new comers and confined to their enclaves.
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Its too early and too fast . Right time for Moditva is past 2020.
<!--QuoteBegin-G.Subramaniam+Dec 11 2007, 08:08 PM-->QUOTE(G.Subramaniam @ Dec 11 2007, 08:08 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Modi has cleared the hurdle
The first phase was the riskiest, with Keshubhai patel dissidents, rich rural farmers arrested for stealing electricity, rural area etc
The Satta markets which are more accurate give 46 seats to BJP, a loss of 7 seats
In the next phase, the easy phase, Modi should hold on, which means a net BJP total of 120
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This seems accurate. I personally dont think there is any doubt about whether Modi will make it or not. What would be more interesting to see is the type of victory. After the wins in corporations and panchayats the dissidents were on a low already but a lot of money has been pumped in from dilli.
Yes Modi does seem to have a cult following and that will either make or break him. But for now he enjoys sabhas with lakhs attending and answering his questions on who is maut-kaa-saudagar.
Word is if you want to ensure a win, get Modi to speak for you.. <!--emo&  --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Rajesh_g,
Welcome back after a long break.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Modi has his finger on the pulse of masses
pioneer.com
Ashok Malik | Himmatnagar/ Ahmedabad
Spending a day on the road with Narendra Modi offers a pulsating lesson in the power of the "personality factor" in an election. In 2002, during the Gaurav Yatra and the poll campaign that followed, it was the Gujarat Chief Minister's large public meetings and spontaneous reception that was the barometer of his popularity. It led, eventually, to a two-thirds majority.
This year has been no different. For anybody who saw Modi's rallies five years ago, a sense of déjà vu in inescapable. <b>On Wednesday evening, he drew 1,00,000 people in Himmatnagar</b>, the gateway to north Gujarat, followed by <b>half the number in a small semi-rural venue in Prantij </b>-- where a larger public ground could easily have ensured a bigger turnout. He ended the evening with a <b>mammoth meeting in Ahmedabad's Bapunagar-Vijay Chowk area</b>.
That final meeting, which drew an <b>estimated 2,00,000 people </b>and saw surging crowds pushing at the barricades and almost causing a stampede, was also addressed by BJP national president of Rajnath Singh, his short introductory speech punctuated by cries of, "Modi, Modi ... We want Modi."
<b>It was rock star hysteria. As Modi rose to speak, from far in the crowd somebody waved a poster, with a photograph and the slogan "Gujarat ka Sher (Lion)". Modi waved back; immediately the poster began a rapid journey to the stage, being passed on from person to person, held overhead all the time, till it reached the man himself</b>.
<b>Earlier, at Himmatnagar, Modi was greeted by a bare-chested supporter who had tattooed the BJP's lotus symbol onto his chest, his back and even his shaved head</b>. Politics in Narendra Modi's Gujarat is never everyday and usual; it carries a mix of passion, melodrama and an iconic superstar appeal.
It is also a pan-Gujarat phenomenon, not limited to some regions or constituencies.
<b>As Modi himself puts it, "I have drawn equally strong and spontaneous crowds everywhere." "Including Saurashatra?," you ask. "Including Saurashtra," is the firm reply</b>.
<b>The crowds are as large as 2002, but there are crucial differences. For a start, the youth quotient is much more prominent</b>. Not surprisingly, the Modi camp sees the first-time voter -- "the young voter, between roughly 18 and 28," according to one insider -- as driving the BJP surge.
There is one other change from 2002. In that year, people came to see and hear Modi; today, they come to engage with and talk to him, and in some cases capture him on their camera phones. The public meetings are remarkably interactive. Modi makes rhetorical references to "Soniaben". In Himmatnagar, he lightheartedly asked listeners atop a half-finished building adjacent to the public ground if they were okay:<b> "If you fall or something happens to you, Soniaben will blame me!" The crowd roared back.</b> <!--emo&  --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Through his speech -- and the content changes only marginally, to accommodate the local context -- Modi raises a cocktail of issues: Development, his record of strengthening schools and hiring more teachers, security and terrorism, Gujarati pride, the "Congress' record of 45 years versus the Modi Government's five years". The Modi message concludes with a series of Q&A sessions.
<b>He asks the crowd whether Gujaratis are "Hindu terrorists"</b> -- borrowing Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh's phrase. He asks the crowd whether <b>he is "maut ka saudagar (merchant of death)", as alleged by Sonia Gandhi in a speech that, political sources say, was authored by noted film script-writer Javed Akthar.</b>
Finally, he asks the crowd if it wants to see Modi as Chief Minister and the BJP in power. "Yes," it says. The public meeting now becomes a two-way chat show. So will victory be ensured by praying; by chanting Modi's name; by fasting to propitiate Santoshi Ma; by feeding the poor? The throng comes alive, laughs and says "No", sometimes collectively shaking its head in a Gujarati rendition of the Mexican wave.
Then Modi has the last word: "If you want Modi as Chief Minister, you have to vote. On the 16th, press the lotus symbol." The spell breaks, the meeting is over. Modi makes his way through waving, cheering numbers, gets into his van and it's on to the next meeting.
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RajeshG, What next? How do they leverage this on a national scale? The dynamics or atmoshpherics in Gujarat are quite different than the rest of the nation. One thing is he didnt stick to the Gujarat shining slogan but consolidated his base. I had asked earlier if Gujarat progress had any domino effect on atleast the neighboring states like Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra but didnt get much by way of answers.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->if Gujarat progress had any domino effect on atleast the neighboring states like Rajasthan, MP and Maharashtra <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Thackeray-parivar are still scrapping from bottom of the barrel so it'll be miracle if Gujarat has any effect in Maharashtra.
Good seeing you Rajesh. What's the Gujarati newspapers saying on exit polls?
If development is the criteria then MP should be a win-win for BJP. However, I do not think there is base for BJP on the lines of Gujarat.
It is important for the BJP to do social engineering on the lines of Republican party here. Once you create a base, then try to cling on to that even at the cost of alienating the opposite base. This was not realized after the first term and went after expanding the base.
Examples of conslidating base is NTR in AP and Modi in Gujarat. BT in Maha is trying but he is lacking his charisma beyond Mumbai.
Why a villain is still vibrant- Modis development demagoguery is striking a chord
MANINI CHATTERJEE
Jetalpur (central Gujarat), Dec. 13: Sitting around the chai shop in this village in the heart of central Gujarat, Jitendra Rathore and J.K. Purohit hedge their bets on which way the wind is blowing when Jitendraâs brother Rajendra rudely butts in.
<b>âWe need a leader like Indira Gandhi. But the Congress is a bunch of nincompoops who canât decide on anything. Narendrabhai Modi is our Indira Gandhi.â</b>
That comparison may sound outrageous but there are more sophisticated backers for rustic Rajendraâs theory.
<b>A day before in Ahmedabad, the BJPâs chief âelection strategistâ Arun Jaitley said something similar. Dismissing suggestions that dissidence in the BJP and anti-Modi feelings within the Sangh parivar would affect the outcome, he compared Gujarat 2007 to the watershed general elections of 1971. Just as Indira won a landslide despite the Congress âSyndicateâ ganging up against her, Modi too would triumph regardless of the rebels, Jaitley said. </b>
Both leaders, Jaitley implied, were dynamic and dictatorial and managed to communicate directly with the masses without depending on the party organisation or the support of the media.
As we travel from Ahmedabad to Vadodara via the prosperous Kheda, Nadiad, Borsad-Anand belt, we discover another stylistic similarity â albeit rooted in a substantive difference â between the two polls Jaitley mentioned.
Just as Mrs Gandhiâs âGaribi Hataoâ slogan mesmerised vast millions and she remains to this day the most popular leader among Indiaâs poor, Modiâs âVibrant Gujaratâ demagoguery seems to have clicked with urban and semi-urban Gujaratis and its ripple effect is being felt even in many rural areas in this region.
Upper and middle class Gujaratis have more or less internalised Modiâs rhetoric about Gujarati asmita (pride). Madhav Desai (name changed), a senior retired civil servant in Vadodara, admits âfeeling badâ about the 2002 carnage but insists that Modi isnât to be blamed.
âYou all have made Modi the villain and tarnished all of Gujarat for the past five years. The fact is that there was a spontaneous outpouring of anger and the mobs took over â Modi did nothing. And in the last five years, riot-prone Gujarat has not seen a single communal clash.â
That is an argument we hear repeatedly â âGujarat has better law and order, better infrastructure, better governance, a better business climate than any other state in the country. And it is all thanks to Modi.â
Pranav Ghosh (name changed), a Bengali who grew up in Madhya Pradesh but has been a Vadodara resident for 25 years, is particularly happy with the stateâs business climate. âGujarat has progressed a great deal and it is essentially because of the Gujarati spirit of enterprise. But Modi too has helped.â
Modi, the urban mantra goes, is the least corrupt chief minister Gujarat has seen and runs a strong administration that is ideal for business.
<b>The overwhelming urban middle class support for Modi is playing a significant role in the elections for two reasons. First, Gujarat is possibly the most urbanised state in India with around 40 per cent of its population living in urban centres. Apart from the big cities of Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Rajkot, there are 29 towns with a population of over a lakh and another 30 with between 50,000 and a lakh. </b>
Second, the rural-urban divide is far less rigid than in most parts of India with well-to-do farmers often having homes in the town and building city-style homes in the village. As a result, the urban voice dominates political discourse to a far higher degree than in other states.
That could be one reason why the conversations in an upper middle class Vadodara or Ahmedabad drawing room are echoed, almost verbatim, in much poorer village squares.
In Hariala village, for instance, Kamlesh Parmar insists that âjo Congress ne 45 saal nahi kiya, woh Modi sarkar ne paanch saal mein kar dikhaya (What the Congress failed to do in 45 years, Modi has done in five).â
Even in the seats of Chaklasi and Borsad â traditional Congress strongholds, which the party held against the Hindutva wave in 2002 â villagers talk about bringing about a âparivartanâ (change) and by that they mean the possibility of voting BJP.
It is not as if âdevelopmentâ has reached everywhere and everybody. Interspersed between the gung-ho praise for Modi, there are voices of dissent and distress. Muslims, in town and village, are the most vocal supporters of the Congress âeven though the party did nothing for usâ.
There are others too â those who own neither land nor capital to take advantage of the get-rich-quick-never-mind-what-it-costs syndrome.
But for the past five years, no one has come around to mobilise or channelise those who have been left out â socially and economically â from Modiâs âvibrant Gujarat â or even question the ruthless nature of that growth, they complain.
<i>Buoyed by exit polls showing a swing in its favour in Saurashtra, the Congress is hoping to make more gains in the second phase. That could happen in the Adivasi belt that forms the eastern fringe of north and central Gujarat, but in the heartland itself there is little sign of any anti-incumbency wave.<span style='color:red'>{here comes Manini's own spin. They cannot digest Modi and they have to write something to show their true color.}</i></span>
Even the most leftist journos have given up. if we go by the trends of journos, it should be a landslide. This guy might not be pinko but see the article by Manini above.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Politi...how/2618516.cms
<b>CM popular among youth and women</b>
SIDHPUR: As crowds made their way out of the ground after Narendra Modiââ¬â¢s rally at Sidhpur, a thirty-something Nimasaben turned to me and said: ââ¬ÅNo matter how much Ambika Soni says that women are not safe in Gujarat, I will not believe her. Can women walk on the roads in Delhi at 1 am? No they canââ¬â¢t, but they can in Patan, Sidhpur and Ahmedabad, thanks to Narendra Modi.ââ¬Â
Mr Modi may not have a lot to do with women feeling safe in Gujarat, after all the state has acquired that reputation for long. But women, it would seem, are Mr Modiââ¬â¢s loyal constituents. At the rally in Sidhpur, which seemed to be attended by nearly a lakh of people, young men and women comprised a large section of those attending.
The appeal that Mr Modi holds for these sections is easy to understand. For the youth he represents action, for the businesslike Gujarati, the last five years seems to have been about action and forging ahead. Women, too, have been great supporters of Mr Modi. What exactly results in the strong appeal that Mr Modi has among women and youth may be difficult to pin down, but his plain talking, without being condescending, could be an important factor.
At Sidhpur, some 20 km from Patan, Mr Modi exhorted people to step out and vote, perhaps in an attempt to thumb down all those who say he would want a low turn-out on election day. ââ¬ÅIf you buy a mala and take Narendra Modiââ¬â¢s name 108 times or walk to Amba Devi, will it make Narendra Modi the chief minister?ââ¬Â asks Mr Modi. ââ¬ÅNo,ââ¬Â says the throng of nearly a lakh people. ââ¬ÅIf you want Narendra Modi to be chief minister, you need to go out there and vote,ââ¬Â said Mr Modi.
Implicit in his extortion seems to be an understanding that the 2007 election is really all about him ââ¬â a vote for Modi or against. His themes are those that most women from rural and semi-urban areas would relate to.
There is always the attempt to connect with crowds and their beliefs. So, Mr Modi returned to the theme of Ram, and referred to the ASI affidavit questioning the existence of Ram. He asked the crowds if they knew who Ram, Sita and Hanuman were and if they knew of the abduction of Sita. The crowd, as it was expected, responded in the affirmative.
All the Gujarat chief minister needed to say was that Sonia Gandhi did not know who Ram was. And there was yet another connect between the man on the dais and the throngs below.
Even as he made the emotive connect with the people, Mr Modi took the time to remind people of the work that he has done, the diversion of the waters of the Narmada to ensure that this area was not short of water. As he wound up the address, the Gujarat chief minister drew on his north Gujarat roots ââ¬â he is from Vadnagar in the Mehsana districtââ¬â and promised to make ââ¬Åuttar (north ) Gujarat, uttam Gujaratââ¬Â.
Saffron fury at BJPâs great betrayal
Hindustan Times
There is something hard and painful stuck in the deep divide between the BJP and its Sangh parivar allies in Gujarat, like a fishbone in the throat, that could have important consequences for the state's politics.
It is the long arm of the law.
Senior functionaries of Hindu nationalist organisations told the Hindustan Times that the BJP had abandoned the very people who helped it establish supremacy in Gujarat through decades of grassroots activity. BJP leaders were enjoying the fruits of power while these silent workers were condemned to prison and penury.
They also alleged the BJP had tried to break the unity within these organisations, by courting local leaders of Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and like-minded groups directly, bypassing top leaders like Pravin Togadia.
Arrested VHP cadres left to fend for themselves.The National Human Rights Commission has estimated that at least 27,800 people were arrested in the aftermath of the February-March 2002 riots. A senior VHP leader put the figure at 35,000. Those FIRs, arrests and regular court appearances, are at the heart of the conflict. These groups are now paying back the BJP by staying away from campaigning.
âMost of those arrested were VHP workers. What has happened has shown the true face and character of the BJP. So these organisations decided to not campaign for the BJP,â said Chaitanya Shambhu Maharaj, member of the decision-making body of the VHP and state chief of Uma Bhartiâs Bharatiya Janashakti Party.
âAll those who were with Modi â the RSS, the VHP, Gujarat Kisan Sangh (farmersâ union), Hindu monks â are now against the BJP,â Maharaj told HT. âThe foot soldiers who made the BJP come to power, who helped the BJPâs organisation when they had nothing in the villages, went to jail. But the BJP leaders are unconcerned.â
Nowhere does the schism come across more vividly than in Eral village of Panchmahals district, where skinny 72-year-old Shantaben Parmar has left her grandchildren at home to step into the electoral battle to fight the BJP. Seven of her relatives are serving life terms in jail â including her 78-year-old husband and 42-year-old son, found guilty of rape and murder of seven Muslim neighbours. The family had been associated with the BJP for 40 years. Shantaben's husband was also a local leader of the VHP.
âA 78-year-old man has been jailed for rape. This is a wild and false allegation. The crimes were all committed by people who came from outside,â said Shantaben, who is fighting both BJP and Congress candidates.
âThis case was brought against our family due to political rivalry. We were destroyed. I donât know how we survived,â Shantaben said. âThis is what the BJP has done to someone who gave his life to it.â
The rise of the BJP in Gujarat owes its success to the organisational work by pro-Hindu groups. In the 1980s, followers of Hindu guru Avichal Das Maharaj tirelessly propagated the Hindu agenda. The RSS, thousands of monks and most prominently, the VHP spent years handholding the party till it came to power in the mid 1990s.
âRecently the BJP began contacting our district level leaders to convince them to help out in the campaign. They tried to break our unity,â a regional VHP leader said, declining to be named. âNarendrabhai Modi should have sat down to discuss all this with Pravinbhai Togadia, but he was not consulted.â
BJP leaders declined to comment. âWe pleaded with the BJP. We said our family was innocent. I used to tie a rakhi to our Muslim neighboursâ wrists, they were my brothers,â said a tearful Dhanumatiben, Parmarâs daughter.
Parmarâs campaign vehicle has illustrations of her husband and son behind prison bars painted on its exterior. âModi wants to show that âI am not the Modi of 2002, I am the Modi of 2007â,â said the daughter.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->âModi has bulldozed the party mechanism. Itâs all only Modi, Modi and Modi alone for the party in the state. Itâs not ideal situation for the party in the long run,â<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Of course its only Modi.
It's because Modi isn't a pakora gassing loser like the rest of the senile, outdated morons.
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