2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[Guest]

<b>Paswan hints at tie with NDA</b> <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->

[Guest]

I am not highlighting any sentence as everything is important. Maharastra is the swing state of 2009 elections.


<b>Chipping away</b>

Malini Bhupta
March 13, 2008

Sharad Pawar is on the prowl yet again. With assembly elections in Maharashtra and general elections less than a year away, the master strategist and chief architect of rebellions is back to his old tactics—which his detractors are, by now, all too familiar with—of trying to wrest power at any cost.

Considering that his ambitions are no longer restricted to his home state, he has not only started consolidating allies for an alternative front at the Centre, but has also started systematically decimating the Congress wherever possible, from the North-east to New Delhi.

With his eyes firmly set on taking hold of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) supremo is pulling out every trick from his version of the Arthashastra to contain his bete noire, the Congress party.

In the North-east, the foxy Maratha leader is especially focusing on upsetting the Congress’s moves in Meghalaya. Despite being an alliance partner with the Congress at the Centre and in Maharashtra, NCP has stitched up a coalition with the United Democratic Party to form the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance in a bid to capture power in the state.

But his attempt to beat the Congress has come to naught as the Meghalaya governor has asked the Congress—the single-largest party with 25 seats in the 60-member House—to form the Government and prove their majority.

What happens in Meghalaya between the Congress and NCP will set the tone of their alliances in the coming year as relations between the two parties are now well beyond repair.

The battleground may have shifted to Meghalaya in 2008, but Pawar’s anti-Congress strategy was first rolled out in Maharashtra last year. He cozied up to Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray to split the Congress vote in several byelections in the state and Congress insiders in Maharashtra feel his moves are now well outside the realm of political correctness.

Having found support from select quarters, Pawar’s plan involves forging new relationships with different parties on one hand and on the other, systematically weakening the Congress in its traditional strongholds. Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee chief Prabha Rau has been cautioning the party headquarters about Pawar’s guerrilla tactics for a while.

Says Rau, “All this is a matter of grave concern to us.” The fact that the Congress is not a cadrebased party and is disconnected from grassroots politics has only helped Pawar.

The NCP chief is known as a rebel without a cause in political circles, an apt description given that he has drifted from the comforts of the Congress fold thrice. Leading rebellions is his forte, whether it is to split and form a new party or encourage a revolt within rival parties.


Sharad Pawar (Left) gears up to ally with Bal ThackerayWhat started as an experiment in Pune corporation—where NCP partnered with the Shiv Sena—has now become par for the course for this modern-day Machiavelli and his party across India. In order to contain the Congress in the state well before the next assembly elections, NCP has partnered with the Shiv Sena in the Amravati district of Vidarbha region, helping NCP get a foothold in the territory, which is traditionally a Congress stronghold.

Old timers from Pawar’s era no longer get shocked by his flip-flops as he’s known to break bread with a sworn enemy if it is a means to capture power. Says Hussain Dalwai, Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee spokesperson, “He is known to be unpredictable.” The new alliance in rural pockets like Amravati will give both the Sena and NCP an opportunity to strengthen their base in rural Maharashtra.

Vidarbha is not only politically sensitive due to farmers’ suicides, but also politically significant as it sends 11 MPs to the Lok Sabha and 66 MLAs to the state Assembly. The Congress got routed in its bastion in the 2004 general elections, when it got only one out of 11 Lok Sabha seats. Veteran Congress leaders blame this debacle on Pawar, who was allegedly advising Congress President Sonia Gandhi on the choice of candidates.

They allege that Pawar advised New Delhi to field reserved candidates even in Vidarbha’s open seats, which caused a rebellion against the Congress in its safe seats.

While the Congress headquarters have made their displeasure with Pawar apparent by warning him of the “dangers of riding on two horses” at the state-level, the Congress is borrowing a page out of NCP’s books to counter the Maratha leader. In western Maharashtra’s Sangli district, the Congress has joined hands with independents to keep Pawar’s party out.

If Pawar is not eroding the strength of his rivals by instigating rebellions, he is keeping his party’s doors open to defectors from rival factions.

Within months of the NCP-Sena combine staking claim on Pune corporation, Congress corporator Suman Chimate resigned citing harassment by MLA Vinayak Nimhan as a reason. Nimhan is a close aide of Narayan Rane, revenue minister and erstwhile Shiv Sainik.

While the Congress alleges NCP’s hand in this, NCP Pune unit chief Anil Bhosale has denied that his party played any role in the matter, even as it gave Chimate a ticket to contest from the same ward.

With a measly strength of 11 MPs, Pawar’s party may not be a national force to reckon with but he continues to be the kingmaker in Maharashtra. The Congress, for its part, has tried very hard to create a leader of the stature of Pawar but has not succeeded. Rane had shown much promise, but even his aura is fading in the face of Pawar’s realpolitik.

After taking six MLAs to the Congress, Rane had given the party a greater tally than NCP in the Assembly but the defeat of Sena defector Subodh Mohite on a Congress ticket from the Ramtek Lok Sabha seat in April has shown the lack of leadership within the Congress’s state unit.

While his 1999 rebellion is the one most talked about, Pawar bashers say he’s always instigated rebellions to prevent the Congress from becoming powerful, irrespective of whether he is inside or outside the party. His peers cite the 1995 state elections as an example when the party failed to give tickets to his loyalists.

This prompted a mass rebellion and 45 independent candidates contested the elections. Says Atul Bhatkarkar, general secretary of BJP, “It is widely believed that Pawar had encouraged these independent candidates to rebel.”

With general elections and assembly elections just round the corner, Pawar may yet again spark another round of rebellions within the Congress both in the state and Centre to weaken the party, which is a lot more dependent on outsiders now than it was earlier.

With the growing closeness of Sena and NCP, the Congress is preparing itself for a triangular contest in Maharashtra on one hand and on the other, the looming threat of a third front led by Pawar at the Centre.

[Guest]

<b>Congressman gets kicked out of CM post which he tried grab through the congress appointed governor.</b>

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Lapang quits, Donkupar appointed new Meghalaya CM</b>
Wed, Mar 19, 2008

Ending a week-long political turmoil in Meghalaya, <b>Congress-led D D Lapang Ministry on Wednesday resigned ahead of the trust vote in the assembly after failing to muster majority and rival UDP leader Donkupar Roy was appointed the new Chief Minister.</b>

Roy, who met Governor S S Sidhu along with other MLAs of the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance, which is headed by NCP leader P A Sangma, was handed over the letter appointing him to lead the new government, Raj Bhavan sources said.

He will be sworn in at 6.30 pm at the Governor's house.

MPA spokesman and Khnam MLA Paul Lyngdoh said along with Roy, a batch of five to six ministers are expected to take oath.

Earlier, capping speculation, Lapang, who was heading the minority Meghalaya United Alliance, resigned, half an hour ahead of the floor test he was to face in the assembly on the directions of the Governor.

Speaking to reporters after a Congress Legislature Party meeting, Lapang, who had the support of 28 members including two independents, said <b>"Congress could not garner requisite support. So the CLP decided that I should resign".</b> <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->

Thereafter, he went to the Governor and submitted his resignation.

Lyngdoh said the other new ministers would be sworn in on Thursday after the election of the Speaker.

<b>Sangma, the architect of the MPA, said the alliance members would meet before the swearing in to finalize other formalities and details.</b>

He also indicated that the ministerial berths have been finalized, but refused to disclose them.

<b>Besides 14 NCP MLAs, MPA comprises 11 from UDP, two from Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), one each from BJP and Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM) besides two Independents.</b>

Meanwhile, the state assembly, which was scheduled to start from today, was adjourned by the Pro Tem Speaker Hopingstone Lyngdoh.

Reading out Lapang's resignation letter, Lyngdoh adjourned the house immediately afterwards saying there was "no more business to transact".

Lapang, who was sworn in on March 10 after the Congress emerged as the single largest party, had been asked by the Governor to prove his majority in the House within ten days.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

Only in Goa, they can easily buy MLA.

[Guest]

<b>UPA to lose majority in RS, BJP may cross 50-mark</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->NEW DELHI: With curtains coming down on the current round of Rajya Sabha elections, there were no surprises in the states where elections were held, but the results will see UPA lose a majority in the upper House. Besides the poor pickings for UPA, BJP numbers are set to cross 50 and there may well be assembly polls in Jharkhand.

The results provide an interesting peep into state equations, the balance between Congress and Left and NDA's growing strength in the states. Though there were several engrossing battles, developments in Jharkhand stole the limelight where a <b>divided UPA allowed Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries group president Parimal Nathwani to steal the second seat on offer. </b>
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[ramana]

Someone e-mailed me to expect Mayawati as nw PM in 2009 due to fractured verdict. Apparently some outside forces see her as a focus point for their interests. Is there any change in the electoral prospects for her BSP in non UP areas?

[Guest]

Too early to say anything about PM. Public will kick out Congress for sure and commies still can do better with scentific rigging. Chances of Mayavati after 3 years of rule or mis rule will be long shot.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>EC will be ready for LS polls by August: Gopalswamy</b>

Tiruchirappalli, March 29: Chief Election Commissioner Mr N Gopalswamy today said the EC would be ready for Lok Sabha elections after 31 August with photo electoral rolls and Electors Photo Identity Cards.
Asked by reporters which are the states that would go to assembly elections along with Lok Sabha polls, he said elections to Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Sikkim and Karnataka were held along with the Lok Sabha elections last time. Mr Gopalaswamy said it was “practically impossible” to reconsider the delimitation process as it is over.
New Delhi, the EC today published the revised electoral rolls in the delimited Assembly constituencies in poll-bound Karnataka, thereby setting the stage for the announcement of the election schedule in the state in the coming days. The Chief Electoral Officer of Karnataka published the delimited rolls of all the 224 constituencies, EC sources here said. SNS & PTI
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[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Mar 27 2008, 02:48 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Mar 27 2008, 02:48 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Someone e-mailed me to expect Mayawati as nw PM in 2009 due to fractured verdict. Apparently some outside forces see her as a focus point for their interests. Is there any change in the electoral prospects for her BSP in non UP areas?
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Mayawati's sucess outside UP is a sure doom factor for Congress. Among the various iterations of KHAM factor, harijans are the one who are solidly behind congress in many big states of India (especially Rajastan, MP, Maha, AP and Karnataka). If harijans move away from congress in Maha, AP and Karnataka means there is no existence for congress even as a viable party to talk or walk inside parliment. My prediction would be less than 75 seats for congress in such a situation.

For any BJP supporter, she should lose ground in UP and gain maximum ground in other states. This will be a sure shot for NDA in 2009 with BJP crossing 220 seats. It would be nice to see her as champion of dalits in the south( AP and Karnataka) and a dream come true if she can get 60% of Maha's dalits.

However, if she gets landslide in UP (soemthing in the range of 70) and if congress and BJP gets 110 apiece then she can have a shot at becoming PM. She becoming PM may not be such bad idea as compared to a severely fractured verdict(a disaster). This is also unrealistic scenario as things stand today.

[Guest]

Language plays an important role in politics. Mayawati cant speak any other language other than Hindi. The most she has done in Karnatka is to hold an rally were she inducted into her party some old jd(s) and congress members who were on the lookout to lord over some party members after losing their positions in congress and jd(s).

Every senior leader in congress is threatened by the cross over of Siddaramaiah from jd(s) to congress and now the return of former CM S.M.Krishna to active politics.

Every senior leader in jd(s) has to bow before the sons of gowda who are very junior to them in politics. This caused some senior leaders of these parties to cross over to mayawati's BSP which had it an party of senior leaders fighting over territory rather than a party which has an strong grassroot level participation.

BSP is doomed in Karnataka even before it tried to setup an base here. It will meet the fate of Kannadu party.

[Guest]

In North India BSP will be spoiler for Congress. They are eating up Congress Dalit vote. For Congress, Muslim may comeback and that will be loss for SP and BSP.
Caste, language circus may continue for two three cycles of election.

[Bodhi]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>BJP wins Betul LS seat in MP</b>

BJP candidate Hemant Khandelwal defeated his Congress rival Sukhdev Panse by a margin of over 35,440 votes to retain the Betul-Harda Lok Sabha seat.  BJP has retained the seat fifth time in a row.

In a surprise outcome, Samajwadi Party's candidate, Dr Suneelam, considered a tough contender, lost his deposit securing only 21,698 votes. He was placed fourth.

The bypoll was necessitated following the death of BJP MP Vijay Khandelwal, whose son won the bypolls on Wednesday.

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/BJ...t-in-MP/297595/
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<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>BSP sweeps by-polls in UP</b>

The ruling Bahujan Samaj Party has won the by-elections to all five constituencies, two Lok Sabha and three Vidhan Sabha seats, which went to polls on April 12.

BSP candidate Bhismshankar alias Kushal Tiwari won the Khalilababad Lok Sabha seat by a margin of over 64,000 votes, trouncing his nearest rival Bhalchandra Yadav of Samajwadi Party, election office sources said here.

BSP nominee Akbar Ahmad Dampi won the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat defeating his nearest rival Ramakant Yadav of BJP by a margin of over 53,000 votes.

Brij Singh secured the Colonelganj Assembly seat defeating her nearest rival SP's Yogesh Pratap Singh won by a margin of over 9,000  votes. Rajni Tiwari won Bilgram Assembly seat by over 38,000 votes, defeating SP candidate Vishram Singh. BSP leader Rajpal Tyagi won the Moradnagar Assembly seat by a comfortable margin, defeating the Rastriya Lok Dal candidate.

http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/apr/16up.htm
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Please send Rahul Baba to campaign in Karnataka now.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Disgruntled politicians gather for 'fourth front'</b>

<b>Vrindavan/New Delhi, April 19 : Unhappy over being pushed to the sidelines, a few political leaders, including George Fernandes, Subramaniam Swamy and K.N. Govindacharya, Saturday gathered in Vrindavan in Uttar Pradesh to explore the possibility of forging a "fourth front".</b>

The two-day gathering, which began Saturday, is being jointly organised by the Rashtriya Swabhiman Andolan (RSA) run by Govindacharya and the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), a subsidiary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Govindacharya formed the RSA after being ousted from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) some years ago for his criticism of former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

The RSS patronage of the conference was evident from the presence of important functionary Madan Dass Devi. Also present was Balbir Punj, a functionary of the BJP and a known member of party stalwart L.K. Advani's "think tank".

Another notable BJP member present was Raghunandan Sharma, who returned to the party as a Rajya Sabha member from Madhya Pradesh only a few days back. He was till recently an important functionary of Uma Bharti's Bharatiya Jan Shakti (BJS).

Also present was National Democratic Alliance (NDA) convenor George Fernandes, who despite enjoying a high office in the NDA, is only on the periphery of his party, Janata Dal-United (JD-U) that has pushed him to the margins of Bihar politics, though he is elected to parliament from the state.

Janata Party president Subramaniam Swamy was also present. Of late he is being actively patronised by the Sangh parivar.

Journalist Ram Bahadur Rai, a close confidant of Govindacharaya, threw up the idea of a "fourth front" and was enthusiastically supported by others - buttressing the feeling that the convention was aimed at creating a political alternative to the BJP and the NDA that has the BJP as its largest constituent.

To confirm the hunch, Govindacharaya told IANS: "I wouldn't call it a fourth or fifth front. This is just an attempt to form the right front."

Replying to a question about the participation of the front in the coming Lok Sabha polls, he said, "Maybe this might influence the coming Lok Sabha elections."

Fernandes avoided a direct reply, saying instead: "It's not proper to say anything right now since no front has been formed so far". <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

Mayawati is back on saddle and gave warning to Baba. It will be interesting to watch street fight between our champion Mayawati and Baba. <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+Apr 20 2008, 11:23 PM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ Apr 20 2008, 11:23 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Mayawati is back on saddle and gave warning to Baba. It will be interesting to watch street fight between our champion Mayawati and Baba.  <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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Mayawati or for that matter anybody is better than baba or anyone in his party. But will anybody other than BJP be able to take steps like undoing the nuclear deal (if it sneaks through) or conducting more nuclear tests ?

Maybe Mayawati being a person not disconnected from the people will not indulge in the kind of treason the current regime is up to.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->  <b>Mulayam, Lalu kiss and make up </b>
pioneer.com
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
After fighting each other for over a decade, Lalu Prasad and Mulayam Singh - the two Yadav chieftains of the Hindi heartland - have decided to bury the hatchet and not make overtures into each other's political turfs. 

<b>"We have decided not to fight against Lalu, unlike in the past," </b>Ramgopal Yadav, Parliamentary Party leader of the Samajwadi Party, told The Pioneer.

<b>The "no-fighting-each-other" understanding is being seen as a signal to national parties by regional outfits that they are adding more muscle to their might and would demand more importance in the coming days. Some smaller parties have already come together and formed the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA), headed by Mulayam and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu.</b>

The Lalu-Mulayam handshake would also a give better bargaining chip to non-Congress parties in any future political dispensation, a political observer said.

Ramgopal Yadav had been instrumental in thawing relations and facilitating bonhomie between the two OBC stalwarts for months. He also took the initiative in organising meetings between the leaders who did not see eye to eye for years. "We have realised that the fight between RJD and SP had damaged each other severely, especially because both follow the same ideology," he added.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal, led by Lalu, and the Samajwadi Party, led by Mulayam, with their respective Yadav and Muslim bases in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, do have a common appeal over the OBCs and minorities outside their states too.

"Actually, we had been damaging the consolidation of social justice forces by fighting against each other," Lalu's close associate and RJD parliamentarian Ramkripal Yadav said while confirming that the hitherto-rival parties would not contest against each other
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This will give problem to Mayawati, not sure whether Congres is directly involved in this love fest. If they join hands it will help Congress and Yadavs.

[Guest]

BJP is on the rise. If it wins Karnataka then the game is up. Every one will close in for their survival.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>Amar, Sonia to break bread on May 22 </b>
Akhilesh Suman | New Delhi
On May 22, when the UPA Government completes four years in office, Samajwadi Party general secretary Amar Singh -- once the most unwanted person for senior Congress leaders -- would have dinner with party president Sonia Gandhi.

<b>It would be a celebration of four years of the Manmohan Singh Government at a dinner hosted at the PM's residence at 7 Race Course Road</b>. Besides UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, the invitees include Cabinet Ministers, the UPA allies and Left leaders. Interestingly, the SP no longer belongs to any of these categories. It had withdrawn support to the UPA Government more than one-and-a-half years ago, after the Congress withdrew support to the Mulayam Singh-led Government in Uttar Pradesh.

The presence of Amar Singh at such a gathering is indicative of the long distance the Congress and the SP have covered since 2004, when Amar Singh first suffered the humiliation of landing at 10 Janpath uninvited to take part in a similar celebration to mark UPA Government's first year in office. Singh had been persuaded by veteran Marxist HKS Surjeet to accompany him to the dinner. The cold reception he got at 10 Japanth stayed with him for long and he never forgot to make a mention of it while attacking the "arrogance" of the Congress leadership.

But times have changed. The invitation for the May 22 bash has been sent by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Amar Singh, Ramgopal Yadav and SP chief whip Mohan Singh. Incidentally, Mohan Singh has played a key role in facilitating the rapprochement between the parties.

Amar Singh is away on a foreign trip but sources close to him confirmed that he was all set to dine with the Congress leaders. He would return on May 22, ostensibly not to miss the invitation. Mohan Singh also confirmed his participation to The Pioneer.

Attaching political significance to the invitation, SP parliamentary party leader Ramgopal Yadav said he had had no such invitation from the UPA Government in the last four years to attend the annual celebration.

The celebration at the Prime Minister's official residence includes the release of a printed report card of the four years' achievements and would conclude with a dinner hosted by him for the well-wishers of the Government, the MPs of supporting parties and the Left Front allies.

<b>Last week, Amar Singh had visited the Prime Minister's residence and extended an offer to mediate between the Government and the Left parties on the India-US civil nuclear agreement. </b>The SP was ready to consider new facts regarding the deal if the Government had any, he had said. His words took everyone by surprise as the party had joined hands with the Left Front to oppose the deal in Parliament
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Celebration of four years of failure of impotent government, India ever had.

[Pandyan]

Anyone have any projections for 2009?

[Guest]

<b>Eye on winter poll weather</b>

<b>RADHIKA RAMASESHAN</b>

New Delhi, May 26: Winter is occupying Delhi’s mid-summer thoughts, not just because of unseasonal rain but because of the unsuspected southern wind blowing in from across the Vindhyas.

Jolted by the Karnataka poll result, Congress leaders have begun sounding one another on the timing of the next Lok Sabha elections.

A section feels that if the elections are held in April-May 2009 according to schedule, the situation on the ground might be worse than what it is now for the party, politically as well as economically. This section is eager for a 2008 winter poll instead of a risky summer outing.

The CPM leadership also thinks that polls “could be held in six to eight months” – which means between November and January.

A factor weighing on the Congress’s mind is the next batch of Assembly elections in November in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Rajasthan — which are being billed a “dry run” for the 2009 battle.

The votaries of early election contend that rather than tot up further losses and go to the Lok Sabha elections as an army of losers, the Congress should dovetail the drive to wrest power in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan with that to retain Delhi as well as the Centre.

A stronger case has been built on the economic front. If the monsoon is normal as was forecast, food prices should start falling by August-September and the impact will be felt by November.

“Inflation may take a back seat and deprive the Opposition of a potent issue,” a Congress minister said.

Normally, prices fall if the monsoon is good and the kharif harvest is reassuring. On both counts, the government’s projections so far are positive.

Data collected by the government on fluctuations in the wholesale price index suggest prices peak between August and October. The decline usually begins in November and dips steadily from January, resuming the rise from May.

An April election could be cutting it too fine because unpredictable factors can always advance or push back the change in the price trend by a month or two. Oil is one such factor: the already sizzling global oil prices can rise further if there is an unusual spike in demand as it happens during some winters, the cumulative effect of which will tell on inflation in India towards the end of winter or beginning of summer.

That does not mean winter offers a cosy corner for those in the line of price fire. Critics of early polls, which also include allies such as the DMK and Lalu Prasad’s RJD, recalled that in the winter of 1999, the BJP was routed in the very states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Delhi on the price rise plank.

However, sources in the ruling establishment tried to quell such doubts by referring to the short-term administrative measures taken by the government to bring prices down. They said that while the government was confident of keeping the price line down by the end of the year, things could spiral out of control by the summer of 2009.

Along with economics, the politics of the nuclear deal is also at play. The pro-deal camp maintains that the agreement should be pushed through to restore the government’s “iqbal” (integrity) and undermine the BJP’s campaign of a “weak government” and a “weaker PM” even if it meant losing the Left’s support.

The overtures to the Samajwadi Party were the Congress’s way of muddling the Left’s “third front” blueprint. The Samajwadi Party was one of the CPM’s steadfast allies.

But the sceptics are also sharpening their knives against a pre-scheduled election which is likely to figure at the next CWC meeting.

They feel that the allies might not play ball. Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief, has been quoted as saying that when it came to the crunch, the allies will want to remain in the government “until the last day”.

<b>The Congress leadership is also keen to keep the UPA intact, “realising that the party may not be in a position to get a majority on its own in the near future”. “Our goal should be to strengthen ourselves and our allies,” said a source close to the leadership.

The leadership is also wary of calling early elections like the BJP did in 2004 and miscalculated the situation. But the irony is that the Congress is being forced to decide on the election date when it is down, unlike the BJP which was then basking in the “glory” of India Shining.</b>