Sonia flays BJP on terrorism
Special Correspondent
Addresses election rallies in Bangalore, Tumkur
Says Congress will provide a stable government
Bangalore: There is no question of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Government going soft on terrorism like the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government, Congress president Sonia Gandhi has said.
She was addressing an election meeting at Krishnarajapuram here on Wednesday.
It was the NDA that had released terrorists and sent them along with its Foreign Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh to Kandahar.It was again the BJP that had failed in protecting Parliament and the Raghunath Mandir from terrorists. Yet it was raising a hue and cry about terrorism, she said.
Nobody is discussing the 2006 Mumbai Train bombing and Varanasi Bombing
Ms. Gandhi introduced to the voters party candidates A. Krishnappa (Krishnarajapuram), K.J. George (Sarvajnanagar), K.C. Vijaya Kumar (C.V. Raman Nagar), R. Roshan Baig (Shivajinagar), M.A. Harris (Shantinagar), Sayeed Ahmed (Chamarajpet), Gurappa Naidu (Padmanabhanagar), M. Suresh (Jayanagar) and B. Shivanna (Mahadevapura).
The meeting was attended by Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president M. Mallikarjun Kharge, Union Minister of State and Karnataka in-charge Prithviraj Chavan, the former Chief Ministers S.M. Krishna and N. Dharam Singh, partyâs Manifesto Committee chairman C.K. Jaffer Sharief and the former Union Minister M.V. Rajasekharan.
Earlier in the day, at a rally in Tumkur, Ms. Gandhi said that the Congress had a dream for Karnataka, and sought the support of the people of the State to help the party realise it.
Ms. Gandhi recalled that in 2004 the Congress had joined hands with the Janata Dal (Secular) because it lacked majority. But the Janata Dal (Secular) had left the alliance in the middle and aligned with fundamentalist groups to form an alternate government, she said. âThe Congress will never join hands with that party again,â she said and appealed to the people to give the Congress a mandate to be in power rulefor a five-year term.
Ms. Gandhi said that the Congress would provide rice at Rs. 2 a kilo and houses to the poor, and accord high priority to solving the problems faced by farmers.
âSecularâ candidates flaunt their RSS background
K.V. Subramanya
No reference to RSS in pamphlets brought out by BJP
All candidates are wooing the voters on caste lines
BANGALORE: Candidates of major political parties contesting the Assembly elections from the Brahmin-dominant Basavanagudi constituency are apparently hoping that they will garner more votes if they flaunt their Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) background.
Surprisingly, it is not the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate who is into such a campaign, but his rivals from the secular parties â the Janata Dal (Secular) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
The BSP candidate M. Vasudeva Rao Kasyapa has prominently mentioned in his pamphlets that he was associated with the RSS and other Hindutva organisations as well as the Ram Janmabhoomi movement from 1974.
Similarly, the RSS finds a mention in the publicity material of H.M. Vishwanath, the Janata Dal (Secular) candidate. Mr. Vishwanath, a former MLA from Sakleshpur in Hassan district, is a rank outsider to the Basavanagudi constituency.
While introducing himself to his new electorate, Mr. Vishwanath says in his pamphlets that âhe began his career from the RSS shaka before joining the J.P. movement in the Seventies.â The opening lines of the pamphlet herald his RSS background.
Interestingly, there is no reference to the RSS in pamphlets brought out by BJP candidate L.A. Ravi Subramanya. On the other, Mr. Subramanya has said that that he was associated with the Seva Dal before joining the BJP in 1996.
Meanwhile, almost all the candidates are trying to woo the voters on the caste lines. Though Janata Dal (Secular) nomineeâs official name is Mr. Vishwanath, the party workers are appealing to voters over the loudspeakers to cast their vote for âVishwanth Gowda.â There are around 50,000 voters belonging to the Vokkaliga (Gowda) community in the constituency.
In a bid to influence the nearly 70,000-strong Brahmin community, Mr. Subramanyaâs supporters have been reportedly canvassing that his candidature has been backed by Akhila Karnataka Brahamana Mahasabha. Mr. Subramanya is an office-bearer of the Mahasabha.
As Basavanagudi happens to be the hub of various religious activities, the Congress, BJP Janata Dal (Secular) and BSP candidates are promising the voters that they would take all measures to improve the facilities at the temples.
For instance, Congress candidate K. Chandrashekar is distributing glossy brochures highlighting various religious programmes that were organised under his leadership through âNivaranaâ a non-governmental organisation.
The brochures brought out by the Congress and BSP candidates have several photographs of prominent seers of various Maths, who had participated in functions.
Strong Muslim support base for Congress
Vikhar Ahmed Sayeed
âThey want to consolidate their votes to
defeat the BJPâ
Congress is perceived as a secular alternative
to the JD(S)
Bangalore: Muslim voters constitute between 13 to 14 per cent of Bangaloreâs population and their numbers will play an important role in several constituencies in the city. Of the 28 constituencies in Bangalore city, Muslims form between 20 and 50 per cent of the voters in seven constituencies, 10 to 20 per cent in six, and five to 10 per cent in 12 constituencies.
Shahid Mohsin, an independent observer, said that Muslim voters have two issues in mind. âThey are trying to consolidate their votes against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and they are concerned about development and infrastructure issues in the city.â He said that there was an increased awareness that Muslims need to consolidate their votes in order to defeat the BJP. G. Iqbal Ahmed Qureshi, president of the Karnataka Mutton Merchants Jamiat-ul-Quraysh Association, said, âTwo years ago, Praveen Togadia promised that the BJP will make Karnataka a second Gujarat. We have to make sure that they donât come to power.â Mr. Qureshi was confident of a Congress victory in the elections. âMuslim organisations representing the clergy have been canvassing for secular candidates,â said Rizwanulla Khan, a former journalist in Bangalore. This seems to be working in favour of the Congress as there is a general perception that the party is the secular alternative to the Janata Dal (Secular) except in a few constituencies. Karimullah Shariff, president of the Jewellers Street Association, said that all Muslims would be voting for the Congress because of its strong track record of identifying with the common Muslim. Muslim Congress leaders like Sageer Ahmed, Roshan Baig and C.M. Ibrahim had built strong rapport among Muslims in Bangalore. Mr. Baig said that Muslims across the State were with the Congress. Abdul Azeem, JD(S), MLC, disagreed and said 75 per cent of Muslims were with the JD(S).
BJP makes a bid to woo minorities
Special Correspondent
BANGALORE: In an effort to woo minorities three days before the first phase of polling, the Bharatiya Janata Party on Wednesday promised to induct a minority leader into the Cabinet if it was voted to power in the coming elections.
âWe will induct a minority leader into our Cabinet in the first round of ministry expansion itself,â partyâs chief ministerial candidate B.S. Yeddyurappa told a press conference here.
Incidentally, the BJP, which is contesting all the 224 Assembly constituencies in the State, has not fielded any minority candidate. The lone minority candidate Abbas Ali Bohra, who had been given ticket from Channapatna, has been expelled from the party as he contested as a rebel from is native district of Mandya.
BJPâs prominent minority leader and MP H. T. Sangliana has expressed dissatisfaction over not giving representation to the minorities while issuing ticket. Accusing the party leaders of ignoring the minorities, Mr. Sangliana has cautioned that the partyâs poll prospects could be bleak as the minorities are likely to distance themselves from the BJP.
In an obvious reference to this, Mr. Yeddyurappa said the party could not accommodate any minority candidates as âthey were not in a position to win if given ticket. We gave importance to only the winning potential of candidates while issuing ticket,â he clarified.
Mr. Yeddyurappa claimed that the minorities had started supporting the BJP after he presented two budgets which had increased the allocation for their welfare schemes.
âVictory for Congress crucial for Stateâ
Staff Correspondent
MYSORE: A victory for the Congress in the Assembly elections in the State is âcrucialâ for the future of the State and the country, Union Minister for Culture and Tourism Ambika Soni has said.
âA triumph for the Congress party is necessary for providing a stable government, inclusive development and a growth rate that carries everybody forwardâ, said Ms Soni, who was in Mysore on Wednesday to campaign for the Congress candidates in the ensuing elections.
Addressing presspersons here on Wednesday, she said Karnataka, which symbolises the economic growth, had been under the focus of the world eye in view of the rapid strides made by the information technology industry.
Without naming anybody, Ms. Soni said Karnataka had several good chief ministers from the Congress, who had ushered in progress. âThe senior Congress leaders in the State are united and are campaigning jointly for the success of the party in the elections,â she said. On whether the outcome of the elections in the State would have any bearing on the timing of the Lok Sabha polls, Ms. Soni replied in the negative. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance would remain in power for full five years.
BJP win will be a dangerous development, says Yechury
Special Correspondent
BANGALORE: Results of the polls to the State Assembly will have a bearing on the elections to the Lok Sabha in 2009, and should the BJP emerge victorious in the Assembly elections, it will project itself as having a pan-India presence, a dangerous development for the country, Sitaram Yechury, Polit Bureau member of the CPI (M), has said.
Speaking at a function organised by the party to release the âCPI (M) Appeal to Votersâ here on Monday, Mr. Yechury said that âa pan-India status of the BJP will have a deunifying effect on the country, altering the policy and economic trajectories based on religious and communal issues.â
Mr. Yechury stated that the aim of the BJP was to create a âunipolar societyâ by destroying linguistic, religious, communal and cultural diversities, which the country had been cherishing for centuries. âThis will create an implosion in the country which will delay our progress as well as divert our energies to crisis management and conflict resolution instead of achieving growth and progress,â he said.
He said at this juncture when Karnataka was known as a knowledge generator and harbinger of progress âvoters cannot allow the fundamentalist parties to convert it into a second Gujarat.â
Stating that the divide between the âhaves and the have-notsâ was widening in the country, Mr. Yechury said there were clearly two Indias â the shining India and the suffering India. Mr. Yechury said that the rising inflation will further widen the gap between the rich and the poor. The most dangerous effect of rising prices would be food commodities going out of the reach of the poor people. Quoting the National Health Survey, Mr. Yechury said that 78 per cent of the women were anaemic and about 50 per cent of the children were suffering from malnutrition. He said the UPA Government had allowed 25 commodities to be subjected to forward trading and future trading, which had encouraged large-scale speculation. This system was alien to the Indian market, but due to the pressure from the CPI (M) and other Left parties, the Government had reduced the number of commodities to 22, by keeping out wheat, rice and pulses from the forward and future trading.
CPI (M) candidate for K.R. Puram constituency Gowramma and State secretary of the party V.J.K. Nair spoke.
http://www.thehindu.com/2008/04/22/stories...42255070500.htm
May be cheerful news for BJP supporters. However, Karnataka members of the forum needs to validate the new agency's leanings.
<b>Karnataka first phase opinion poll by VijayaKarnat</b>
Vijaya karnataka has published the opinion poll conducted by news-x and drs Conducted in last week of April and first week of May
According to it in the first phase results might be as follows
1)BJP-40
2)CONG-29
3)JDS-12
4)BSP AND INDEPENDENTS-8
Out of 224 seats it predicts the tally to be
BJP-118
CONG-63
JDS-28
OTHERS-15
VijayaKarnat claims that Punjab,Gujarat,UP election results matched the survey conducted by DRS...
According to it in Bangalore it would be
BJP-18
CONG-10
OTHERS-0
------------------------------------------------
Here is most of the bloggers' opinion:
Bangalore city: BJP single largest party or may be 50/50 with Congress.
Rest of Bangalore: Triangular contest: BJP v/s Congress v/s JDS.
Old Mysore Area: BJP single largest party ââdue to large scale defection into BJP.
Hyderbad Karnataka (NE Karnataka): BJP v/s Congressâprobably neck to neck.
Malnad Karnataka: simple majority for BJP.
North Karnataka (Belgaum, Dharwad area): BJP Landslide Victory.
Coastal Karnataka: Landslide BJP victory.
Spoke to family
The local channels are giving more weight to congress
Some people beleive that congress would win.
They beleive that BJP will not be allowed to form the govt
BJP MPs in Parliament say if the Congress does well in the Karnataka assembly election the government will go ahead with the nuclear deal and a consequent early general election since the Left will pull the government down.
Now, to link the highly complex matter of international affairs of nuclear proliferation and India's foreign policy to a state election is like anti-climax for India which wants to become a superpower in the coming decades.
Will the hopeful Dr Singh be spared of despair after the Karnataka election results are announced?
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/may/09iaea.htm
<!--QuoteBegin-acharya+May 10 2008, 08:00 AM-->QUOTE(acharya @ May 10 2008, 08:00 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->BJP MPs in Parliament say if the Congress does well in the Karnataka assembly election the government will go ahead with the nuclear deal and a consequent early general election since the Left will pull the government down.
Now, to link the highly complex matter of international affairs of nuclear proliferation and India's foreign policy to a state election is like anti-climax for India which wants to become a superpower in the coming decades.
Will the hopeful Dr Singh be spared of despair after the Karnataka election results are announced?
http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/may/09iaea.htm
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My Karnataka friends say the first phase is a Congress/JD stronghold where as the second and third phases are BJP strongholds. Even If BJP wins 25 in phase-1, it could get a simple majority overall and could form the government.
If BJP forms a government in KT on it's own, we are going to see a different political map of India. In the short run, the UPA governement will not fall until the last day.
If this is true then, BJP will win a simple majority in KT
http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story...EWEN20080049489
<b>NDTV exit poll: BJP emerges clear leader</b>
NDTV Correspondent
Saturday, May 10, 2008 (New Delhi)
The first phase of the Karnataka elections is over and 89 of the total 224 seats have voted. According to the NDTV exit poll, major gain is seen for the BJP while the Congress has been hit badly.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is winning 14 seats in Bangalore, which is a swing of four per cent in favour of the saffron party.
The Congress is winning 10 seats in the city and that is four per cent swing against the party while there has not been any vote swing for the Janata Dal-Secular, which is winning four seats in Bangalore.
The exit polls excluding Bangalore also show BJP taking a slight gain and the Congress receiving a setback compared to last Assembly polls.
The BJP is winning 17 seats, as votes swing in favour of the saffron party by three per cent. Whereas the Congress, with two per cent vote swing against it, is winning only 13 seats.
The JDS, on the other hand is winning 26 seats and the vote swing against the party is two per cent.
The combined results of the exit poll for the first phase of assembly elections show BJP emerging as the leader.
The saffron party is winning 31 seats in the first phase of the polls with an 11 per cent swing in its favour.
The Congress, on the other hand, is winning 23 seats, thereby facing a negative swing of five per cent. The JDS is winning 30 seats, which is a swing of six per cent against it.
<b>According to NDTV exit poll </b>
JDs will be spoiler again
The BJP is winning 31 seats
JDS, is winning 30 seats
Congress, , is winning only 23 seats.
<b>The CNN-IBN</b>-Deccan Herald-CSDS pre-poll survey asked over 5,124 registered voters across the state to indicate their voting preference if âelections were to take place tomorrowâ.
The count suggests the Congress will secure 39 per cent of the popular vote, with
the BJP securing 28 per cent of the total votes and the
JD (S) securing 20 per cent votes.
Here is another from blog
Summary of Predictions-Phase 1: 89 seats
BJP assured-20
Congress assured-18
JD(S) assured-13
BSP assured-1
RPI assured-1
KCVP assured-1
Unpredictable (seats with no trend, flip flopping or no incumbents)-14
Tossup (seats fought on close margins either between two parties or 3 way contests on close margins) - 12
Unknown seats (Of all the new constituencies carved out, some of the seats could not be analysed) - 9
Seats % Votes
BJP 35-40 32
Congress 29-33 30
JD(S) 17-20 25
Others 0-1 -
The poll prospects of 953 candidates including former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy, his brother H D Revanna, union minister Ambarish, former ministers Katta Subramanya Naidu, G T Devegowda, R Ashok, Dr G Parameshwara, former Deputy Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, N Cheluvarayaswamy, actor Jaggesh and D K Shivakumar were sealed in the EVMs.
<b>CM popularity</b>
Yediyurappa - 33 percent
kumaraswamy - 25 percent
SM Krishna - 15 percent.
<b>Who is responsible for collapse of coalition</b>
JD(S) - 56 percent
BJP - 24 percent
Both - 10 percent
Overall BJP is leading in I phase which was considered its weakest area.
Now the battle shifts to coastral Karnataka and Northern Karnataka.
In coastral Karnataka BJP is supposed to maintain its dominance winning 75 percent of the seats.
In north and central Karnataka JD(S) has completely collapsed and BJP is the only non congress force.
Generally congress has 40 percent vote share and non congress votes are around 60 percent. Since BJP is only non congress force BJP dominance will continue.
<b>Final forecast
BJP - 135 seats
Congress - 45 -50
JD(S) - 30 -35.</b>
<!--emo&:angry:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='mad.gif' /><!--endemo--> A hung verdict in 2004 â and the coalition tamasha that followed â seemed not to have exhorted voters in 89 Karnataka assembly constituencies to turn out in large numbers and vote.
<span style='color:red'><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>This only goes to show that PQ(political quotient) of Karnatka < UP</span></span>.
<!--QuoteBegin-Capt M Kumar+May 11 2008, 02:31 AM-->QUOTE(Capt M Kumar @ May 11 2008, 02:31 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--emo&:angry:--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='mad.gif' /><!--endemo--> A hung verdict in 2004 â and the coalition tamasha that followed â seemed not to have exhorted voters in 89 Karnataka assembly constituencies to turn out in large numbers and vote.
 <span style='color:red'><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>This only goes to show that PQ(political quotient) of Karnatka < UP</span></span>.
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Actually in the first phase, the constituencies were not BJP's strongholds. In that case low turnout probably helps BJP. Traditional supporters of a party just don't vote if they are unhappy with their party. They usually don't switch sides. Although 60% is still a good percentage.
If in the remaining phases, the turnout is bigger than 60% then that will be good for BJP.
<img src='http://im.rediff.com/election/2004/may/17kbk.gif' border='0' alt='user posted image' />
Karnataka Polls Phase 1 - Predictions
The NDTV reports
An estimated 60 per cent of the nearly 1.73 crore voters on Saturday exercised their franchise in the crucial first phase of Assembly elections in 89 of the 224 constituencies of Karnataka according to Deputy Chief Election Commissioner R Bhattacharya. He said 64 per cent voters exercised their franchise in rural areas while 50 per cent turnout was recorded in urban centres. Around 7,700 central officials monitored the polling held in 18,598 stations across 11 districts on Saturday.
While we await the exit polls from the usual suspects NDTV, CNN-IBN etc Offstumped has come up with extensive analysis all produced by an avid reader with a good knowledge of local factors. The constituency wise predictions to follow have all been produced by this avid reader.
<b>
This election assumes significance for some very important reasons.
To start with it is the first election that is being held after the delimitation of constituencies. Ideally it is expected to be representative of the changing demographics in terms of urban to rural proportion of people. The delimitation offers the chance for the urban voter to make his vote count more. Next this election is supposed to be a trend setter for the upcoming state elections in 2008 and the grand finale next year. The campaigns have so far lacked a high pitch seen usually in elections in India. Apart from a few public speeches by Modi and Advani, there has been no single leader in Karnataka who has the voice of the kannadigas. So as such there is no wave for any single party. History has not been very unfair to Karnataka in giving a decisive winner. Almost all elections after 1983 held in Karnataka have had a single party emerging victorious. </b>
Summary of Predictions-Phase 1: 89 seats
BJP assured-20
Congress assured-18
JD(S) assured-13
BSP assured-1
RPI assured-1
KCVP assured-1
Unpredictable (seats with no trend, flip flopping or no incumbents)-14
Tossup (seats fought on close margins either between two parties or 3 way contests on close margins) - 12
Unknown seats (Of all the new constituencies carved out, some of the seats could not be analysed) - 9
Detailed predictions seat by seat
Tumkur District
128. Chiknayakanhalli GEN: Traditionally high turnouts, This seat is a direct fight between JD(U) and JD(S), if the trend of voting out the incumbent were to continue, the JD(S) might scrape through here.
129. Tiptur GEN: Consistent 70% + voter turnouts, A BJP MLA defected to JD(S) ten years back, lost once on a close margin and then won as a JD(S) candidate, is likely to win again, so this one is for JD(S)
130. Turuvekere GEN: No consistent trend here, all parties had close vote shares last time, anybodyâs guess, Unpredictable
131. Kunigal GEN: Traditional congress seat, last time went to JD(S), BJP has been improving its vote share, but still is largely unpredictable
132. Tumkur City GEN: Safe BJP seat, same candidate Shivanna, BJP will retain this seat
133. Tumkur Rural GEN: Newly carved out seat, BSP is fielding a minority candidate, this is likely a contest between BJP and Congress, unpredictable
134. Koratagere SC: This has been converted from a GEN seat to an SC seat and the previous candidates are no more in the fray, would call that unpredictable
135. Gubbi GEN: Independent MLA is now contesting under a JD(S) ticket, likely to win again under the JD(S).
136. Sira GEN: Traditionally the incumbent gets voted out, likely to go back to congress
137. Pavagada SC: Congress is fielding a new candidate and JD(S) the incumbent, usually the incumbent here gets voted out, but congress changed candidate, so it can go either way, unpredictable
138. Madhugiri GEN: Congress stronghoild, likely to stay congress
Chikkaballapur District
139. Gauribidanur GEN: A congress seat for quite some time and likely to remain congress as other parties donât have much presence in this area.
140. Bagepalli GEN: This seat will be fiercely contested between the congress and the CPM on close margins, tossup
141. Chikkaballapur GEN: Traditional congress seat, likely to stay congress
142. Sidlagatta GEN: JD(S) replaced its incumbent MLA in what is a traditional congress seat, likely to go back to congress
143. Chintamani GEN: The BJP and congress are likely to fight this seat on close margins, likely tossup
Kolar District
144. Srinivaspur GEN: Congress has a strong candidate, will remain congress seat.
145. Mulbagal SC: General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
146. Kolar Gold Field SC: Will stay with RPI, other parties donât have much presence here
147. Bangarapet SC: New constituency
148. Kolar GEN: Congress stronghold, will stay congress
149. Malur GEN: The BJP candidate is the incumbent MLA and is very strong here, BJP will retain this.
Bangalore District
150. Yelhanka GEN: BJP has an increasing presence in this area, but will still take an extra to unseat the congress candidate from their stronghold, likely to be tossup
151. KR Pura GEN: New constituency, BJP is fielding a real estate candidate and this is the only party in this area having a presence, this is likely to be BJP
152. Byatarayanapura GEN: New Constituency
153. Yesvanthapura GEN: New Constituency, BJP is fielding Shobha, probably the most controversial candidate in this election
154. Rajarajeshwarinagar GEN: New Constituency, the BJP has a good candidate here, likely to be BJP here
155. Dasarahalli GEN: New Constituency
156. Mahalakshmi Layout GEN: New Constituency
157. Malleshwaram GEN: The BJP has increasing support in this area, close to IISC area likely to fought on close margins with the INC. Tossup
158. Hebbal GEN: Katta Subramanya Naidu, who has represented Shivajinagar thrice for BJP , is now moving to the adjacent Hebbal constituency. This should be easier for him since it has a much lesser proportion of minorities compared to Shivajinagar. This will be BJP
159. Pulakeshinagar SC: This is a Tamil dominated area, not much chance for the BJP or the JD(S), this is a sure congress seat.
160. Sarvagnanagar GEN: This is a Tamil dominated area, not much chance for the BJP or the JD(S), this is a sure congress seat.
161. C.V Raman Nagar SC: BJP is fielding a local candidate Raghu, who has considerable fans in the area, Raghu is from CV Raman Nagar, won Shanti Nagar and CV Raman Nagar BMC last time, should have it easy. This is a BJP seat
162. Shivajinagar GEN: Traditional BJP seat, BJP has changed the candidate, but likely to stay BJP
163. Shantinagar GEN: Raghu who won for BJP here last time is now contesting from CV Raman Nagar, so BJP has a new candidate, but likely to stay BJP
164. Gandhinagar GEN: Though a traditional congress seat, PC Mohan of BJP is expected to give a good fight to Dinesh of congress, but congress will all probability retain this.
165. Rajajinagar GEN: Congress would have had a chance with its incumbent, but by changing him and putting a new candidate, they lost it. Suresh kumar of BJP will win this. It was a BJP seat before, so BJP will get this back
166. Govindraj Nagar GEN: This is a sure congress seat, V Somanna is a strong candidate
167. Vijay Nagar GEN: New constituency
168. Chamrajpet GEN: This is a minority dominated area, both congress and JD(S) are fielding Muslim candidates, so it will be fought between them, most likely JD(S) will win.
169. Chickpet GEN: Strong BJP seat, will stay BJP
170. Basavangudi GEN: This will be an interesting seat, both BJP and congress have won in the past, with Modi doing some high pitched campaign here it should be a close battle, likely tossup
171. Padmanabha Nagar GEN: A new constituency carved out of the erstwhile Uttarahalli area, Ashok of BJP is a formidable candidate, so this will be BJP
172. BTM Layout GEN: IT area, people from all over the state and country, very difficult to predict could be anybody, so unpredictable
173. Jayanagar GEN: As such Vijay Kumar of BJP can unseat Ramalinga Reddy in this congress stronghold, but it will be closely fought, so tossup.
174. Mahadevapura SC: BJP is the only party in this area which has a presence, their candidate is a civil engineer cum real estate guy, this will be BJP
175. Bommanahalli GEN: Semi rural area, lots of migrants, though not very clear congress will likely claim this seat.
176. Bangalore South GEN: Brahmin dominated area, Ananth kumar controls this area and chooses candidates for the BJP here, will be BJP
177. Anekal SC: Has been a BJP stronghold, likely to remain so.
Bangalore Rural District
178. Hosakote GEN: Last time JD(S) candidate lost to the congress candidate by less than 1% margin and now this JD(S) guy has defected to the BJP. Likely tossup between congress and BJP
179. Devanahalli SC: This constituency has consistently voted out incumbent and in fact re-elected past MLAâs, going by past trends, this will go to the congress this time.
180. Doddaballapur GEN: Was a JD(S) seat which went to congress last time, but both JD(S) and congress have consistent voting percentages here and so this is likely to be unpredictable
181. Neelamangala SC: Though this has been a congress seat for the last two terms, their vote share has slipped considerably while BJP and JD(S) have been getting some positive response here, this will be a tossup between the three.
Ramnagar District
182. Magadi GEN: The JD(S) has a good candidate who has a strong support in this area, so will be JD(S)
183. Ramanagaram GEN: HD Kumaraswamy for JD(S), will go to JD(S)
184. Kanakapura GEN: Has been with JD or JD(S) always, they have changed candidate this time, but likely to be JD(S)
185. Channapatna GEN: Congress has a strong candidate, will be congress
Mandya District
186. Malavalli SC: JD(S) is string here, will stay with JD(S)
187. Maddur GEN: No trend here, this is an unpredictable seat
188. Melukote GEN: New constituency
189. Mandya GEN: M Srinivas of the JD(S) is the current MLA and a strong candidate, will win there so this is JD(S)
190. Srirangapatna GEN: No trend here and candidates win with very low vote shares, so unpredictable
191. Nagamangala GEN: JD(S) stronghold, will stay JD(S)
192. Krishnarajpet GEN: Consistently votes out the incumbent, and again has elected previous MLAâs, so this will likely go back to the congress this time.
193. Shravanabelagola GEN: New Constituency
194. Arsikere GEN: has become a BJP stronghold now though they have changed candidates, will be likely BJP
195. Belur GEN: Has been a three way split in the last 2 elections, will be a tossup between the three (congress, BJP and JD(S))
196. Hassan GEN: Here JD(S) has a strong candidate, and so JD(S) will hold this seat again.
197. Holenarasipur GEN: Revanna for JD(S), this will be JD(S)
198. Arkalgud GEN: Fought on close margin last time, likely to be tossup between JD(S) and Congress
199. Sakleshpur SC: General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
Kodagu District
208. Madikere GEN: BJP won this last time and in the past, high pitched campaign by BJP top brass here, likely to be BJP
209. Virajpet GEN: BJP won this last time and in the past, high pitched campaign by BJP top brass here, likely to be BJP
Mysore District
210. Periyapatna GEN: Has been a three way split in the last 2 elections, will be a tossup between the three (congress, BJP and JD(S))
211. Krishnarajanagara GEN: This will be a tossup between Congress and JD(S) fought on close margins.
212. Hunsur GEN: This will go to BJP, mainly on account of GT Devegowda who won last time on a JD(S) ticket, but has now joined the BJP
213. Heggadadevankote ST: Has been converted to an ST seat from an SC seat. General seat converted to SC, all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
214. Nanjangud SC: Consistently votes out the incumbent, and again has elected previous MLAâs, so this will likely go back to the congress this time.
215. Chamundeshwari GEN: all parties have changed candidates, tough to predict, unpredictable
216. Krishnaraja GEN: JD(S) has replaced the incumbent, but this a BJP strong area though JD(S) wonlast time, will likely be back with BJP.
217. Chamaraja GEN: BJP stronghold, will stay with BJP
218. Narsimharaja GEN: Congress has a minority candidate, but a strong one, will stay with congress.
219. Varuna GEN: New constituency
220. T. Narsipur SC: No trend here, totally unpredictable and won with vote share in the 30âs.
Chamarajanagar District
221. Hanur GEN: has been voting out incumbent parties of late, congress will likely get this back.
222. Kollegal SC: This might BSPâs first seat in Karnataka, likely BSP
223. Chamarajanagar GEN: KCVP candidate looks quite strong here, so likely KCVP
224. Gundlupet GEN: Will stay with JD(S), this is a stronghold for them.
Its raining opinion polls in Karnataka
Even before the furore over the blatantly biased opinion poll by the spin twins has barely settled ,we now have two more opinion polls published by other media houses.One, which predicts a outright BJP victory,conducted by the noted psephologist Narasimha Rao and another one by the Kerala based 'The Week' which forecasts a neck-to neck battle between Congress and BJP.
As a interested poll observer(setting aside my obvious bias) i think 'The Week' poll appears to be more accurate reflection of ground reality.I go with 'The Week' assessment despite the fact that Narasimha Rao is a seasoned practioner in the "market survey" industry .Unlike the Spin Twins,Rao is not afflicted with deep ideological biases though he has not exactly covered himself with glory all the time
The contrasting prediction made by three different polls underscore one point clearly.There is no clear winner at this point of time .Its a wide open race with 'undecided' voters still holding the key.It also demonstrates that runaway Congress victory predicted by spin twins is yet another instance of what Arun Jaitley so beautifully called âParticipatory Psephologyâ . Its increasingly clear that the ideological biases of pollsters and those who fund them play a key role in influencing outcomes of polls.By his own admission Yogendra had massaged the âraw dataâ of surveys to scale down the seat projections for a particular political party in Gujarat polls
I think there are two reasons why Yogendra repeatedely gets it wrong.First one is the inability to overcome bias that gets introduced when "Far Left meets Lohia" worldview of Yogendra combines the obvious political slant of CNN-IBN .I would have imagined that Gujarat experience would have chastened him and his media patrons a wee bit.The virulence with which they operated during the Gujarat polls might be missing this time around especially in the absence of a media created hate figure but the subtle mind games and spindoctoring continues unabated.
Two Yogendra, with his unhealthy obsession with caste based configuration, is bound to lose the plot sometimes.This was clearly evident in UP when all assumed caste based voting patterns were shattered by Mayawati magic. Yes caste is an important dimension of Indian electoral politics but not there are sometimes other several over overriding factors at play.For instance he has constructed a mythical,new social category called as âLower Social Blocâ which apparently is swinging the fortunes in favour of Congress
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All said and done,i cannot rule the possibility of outright Congres win in Karanatka which might be because of one certainty in Indian electoral politics-Muslims not voting for BJP.i foresee religious minorties consolidating and resorting to enbloc tactical voting(nothing wrong in it as its a legitimate form of political expression given that BJP too is not attempting to reach out to them )</b>
In conclusion the Karnataka election appears to be heading for a photo finish as thing stand now.Either BJP or Congress could end up within striking distance of simple majority .My money is on Congress as it is better placed to pick up the JD-S votebank in South Karnataka and edge that it enjoys in Outer Bangalore region
PS-Need to add that my arm chair psephology 's success rate as been as good or as bad as CNN-IBN polls
Monday, August 21, 2006
âRedoubtableâ Psephologist -Yogendra Yadav
Yogendra Yadav-It's difficult to miss him if you are regular watcher of 'journalist-driven newschannel' run by 'Indiaâmost respected journalist'
Not long ago his appearances used to be limited strictly to election related amusements that are variously called as 'Opinion Polls', 'Exit Polls' and 'Post-election voting pattern analysis' .But these days he is omnipresent in the plush studios of CNN-IBN ,increasingly rivaling even the tele-exposure levels of BJP /Congress /Yechury who keep hopping from one studio to another studio ,where they need to babble ,battling incessant interruptions by haughty anchors.To given them their due, the politicos manage to hold their own even while being forced by anchors to summarize complex issue in 30 seconds ,given the impending commercial break
Yogendra Yadav is remarkably articulate, has an incisive understanding of the political landscape of the country and can be credited with demystifying the esocetric field called Psephology ,much to the benefit of television viewers.Also his model/methodology for the proposed OBC reservation definitely was an excellent effort.
Till recently i used to really believe that Yogendra is an independent social scientist with no axe to grind and no rabid ideological affliations that seem to increasingly afflict mediadom.However some bizzare findings of recent studies done by him , led to a lurking suspicion -whether he was using Psephology as a tool to further any particular ideological viewpoint or political groups espousing them.Given that he is working in tandem with some well-known 'Media Spindoctors' ,it was important to understand his motives.i hoped not.Some googling and my fears get confirmed .Yogendraâs ideological inclinations are pretty much clear.
And it now becomes fairly easy exercise to explain some outlandish findings of the much touted The Hindu -CNN-IBN State of the Nation Survey
I also recently found out that he is a chronicler of history too - writes history books for NCERT .Yogendra must definitely be a man of indefatigable intellectual stamina to take up such serious exercise like writing history books amidst his busy psephology and studio schedules.Given Yogendra has such profound ideological viewpoints,how can one wish away the biases(though thatâs another discussion)
For the uninitiated, Psephology in Indian context, simply put, is sometimes the fine art of using statistics to further ideological viewpoints or support political agendas that help in advancing the underlying ideology. At worst its barely concealed attempt to âmanipulate public opinion to manufacture realityâ.As Gaurav so brilliant puts it âSurveys much more than simple reporting also mold the popular opinion; they do not just inform but also manufacture the reality.Hence so much inaccuracy. These inaccuracies are not simple results of errors in sample size or methodology. These inaccuracies are deliberately introduced because of partisan biases and in zeal to wrest the initiative and frame the reference"
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Also something on the the modus operandi of Yogendra Yadav .He usually acts in tandem one of the three usual suspects- high priest of âThe Mount Road Marxâ , Indiaâmost respected Journalist or 'Ruling Partyâs foremost Media Spindoctor'.</b>
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