2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments

[Bodhi]

what will be the constitutional/legal validity of the deal if the shameless people in govt sign it before govt goes down under its own weight? Will India be obliged to honour the deal if signed by a govt that loses the trust vote but is not dismissed (etc.)?

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-Bodhi+Jul 9 2008, 09:34 PM-->QUOTE(Bodhi @ Jul 9 2008, 09:34 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->what will be the constitutional/legal validity of the deal if the shameless people in govt signs it before govt going down under its own weight?  Will India be obliged to honour the deal if signed by a govt that loses the trust vote but is not dismissed (etc.)?
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Yes. A successive govt can rescind the agreement, but that will introduce its own set of problems. The agreement to put reactors under IAEA safeguards for perpetuity can then become a millstone around the neck.

[Guest]

<b>President asks PM to meet her on Thursday</b>

<b>Call emergency session of Parliament in a week: BJP</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->S S Dhindsa from the Shromani Akali Dal said that his party had called a meeting of its  core group on July 15 and it would be presided by Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal.

"A final decision would be taken at this meeting. We expect the minority government to prove its majority in the House," Dhindsa told rediff.com.
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[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> Somnath Chatterjee can just sit on the question of disqualification of such members for a year.
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Left will be better serve if they disqualify them, longer Congress will stay in power they will erode Left goodwill in WB. Now Left can say they quit on N-deal etc...

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-Bodhi+Jul 9 2008, 09:34 PM-->QUOTE(Bodhi @ Jul 9 2008, 09:34 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->what will be the constitutional/legal validity of the deal if the shameless people in govt sign it before govt goes down under its own weight?  Will India be obliged to honour the deal if signed by a govt that loses the trust vote but is not dismissed (etc.)?
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Actually, people are asking them to return cut/hafta/bribe money, they have no choice but to sign deal or get money which they have already spent.
Mullaha Yadav is towing Reliance interest, because they will gain most.
Now we have to see whether crocks will lose or Indians.

Best outcome, Congress is unable to sign big defence deals, it means less cut for them for making bunglows and fight election.

[acharya]

For Deal to pass UPA needs to first undertake a vote of confidence in the Parliament. The numbers seem as follows:

ASSURED
--------
153 - Indian National Congress
33 - Samajwadi Party (Loyalists)

3-4 - Samajwadi Party (Rebels)
YES - Beni Prasad Verma - Already was hobnobbing with Congress.
YES - Ateeq Ahmed - Murderer (BSP MLA) in Jail. Verma is handler.
YES - Raj Babbar - Already was hobnobbing with Congress. Wants Fatehpur Sikri Loksabha Seat.
??? - Afzal Ansari - Murderer (BJP MLA) in Jail. Susceptible to BSP charm. Unclear
NO - Munawwar Hasan - Gone over to BSP
NO - Jai Prakash Rawat - Gone over to BSP

24 - Rashtriya Janta Dal
16 - Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
11 - Nationalist Congress Party
6 - Pattali Makkal Katchi
5 - Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
4 - Lok Jan Shakti Party
1 - Jammu & Kashmir People's Democratic Party - Mehbooba Mufti has already pledged despite J&K Fiasco
1 - Republican Party of India - Part of UPA
1 - National Loktantrik Party - Baleshwar Yadav has already attached himself to SP.

TOTAL ASSURED - ~259

VERY LIKELY
3 - Rashtriya Lok Dal - Ajit Singh has already said yes but wants some seat arrangements in Western UP.
2 - Janta Dal (Secular) - Devegowda still has to commit, but has no other choice. Rebel Veerendra Kumar from Kerala is Left's pat, so only 2 from 3 assured.
2 - Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Rebels will vote for UPA i.e. 2 out of 4.
1 - All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimmeen (Hyderabad) - Part of UPA but party unsure because anti-Muslim connotations of the nuclear deal
1 - All India Muslim League (Kerala State Committee) - Part of UPA. E. Ahmed - MP Minister of State for External Affairs, but deal to be discussed in Party meeting
1 - Sikkim Democratic Front - Part of UPA. Still non-committal.
1 - Mizo National Front - Ruling Party in Mizoram. MP in favor of nuclear deal. Awaits decision of Party Meeting.
1 - Mani Charenamai (Independent from Manipur) In favor of deal but not committed as yet.
1 - Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary (Independent from Assam, Bodo) In favor of deal but not committed as yet.
1 - Thupstan Chhewang (Independent from J&K, Leh) In favor of deal but has grudges against state Congress.
1 - Harish Nagpal (Independent from UP, Amroha) Reports of in favor.

TOTAL VERY LIKELY - 15

DEALABLE
3 - Telangana Rashtra Samithi - Only if one promises them Telangana
1 - All India Trinamool Congress - Mamata Banerjee wants Congress to dance to her tunes in West Bengal. Could vote with UPA just to spite Left but can also be persuaded by former allies in NDA to vote against.

TOTAL DEALABLE - 4

STEALABLE
2 - Jammu & Kashmir National Conference - Positive signals from Omar Abdullah. Looking forward to alignments at state level after Assembly elections.
8 - Shiromani Akali Dal - Has a few grounds to vote in favor of UPA even though in opposition to Congress in Punjab.
a. Bringing down of first Sikh Prime Minister of India would not look good for a party, claiming to represent Sikhs everywhere.
b. Want to have nuclear power plants in the state (Punjab) for development.
c. Supported by expatriate Punjabis (incl. Sikhs), especially in USA, who have helped on this deal
d. Always got a fair deal from Dr. Manmohan Singh for Punjab.
e. May wish to show independence of policy from BJP.
f. Would want to emulate Shiv Sena's attitude of supporting a fellow Marathi for President.

TOTAL STEALABLE - 10

ABSTAINABLE
12 - Shiv Sena - They are pissed off at Left and may not like to vote with them. Bal Thakaray supports the deal. Son wants to stick to NDA whip.


Total with UPA -
Minimum - 272
Maximum - 288

UPA will survive the confidence motion and nuclear deal can go forward.

[Bodhi]

<!--QuoteBegin-acharya+Jul 9 2008, 11:02 PM-->QUOTE(acharya @ Jul 9 2008, 11:02 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->YES - Raj Babbar - Already was hobnobbing with Congress. Wants Fatehpur Sikri
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MP from Agra can not support Deal, or anything that distinctly appears to be anti-Muslim, anti-Left, pro-"imperialist".

[Guest]

SAD will go against Congress, MMS is not popular in Punjab, people are very angry with him, small scale industry is suffering and same with farming.
SS already confirmed will vote against Congress.
Pawan will abstain, same will happen to some of RJD muslim crowd.
It may happen with Congress Muslim crowd, they will abstain.
I think DMK will abstain.

[shamu]

What makes you so confident about DMK? DMK has no problem in engaging with EJs and US.

[ramana]

SAD has come out with statement supporting deal and claiming that BT supports the deal so can they. Didnt say if they would vote. the pressure is to support the Sikh PM.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-shamu+Jul 10 2008, 01:50 AM-->QUOTE(shamu @ Jul 10 2008, 01:50 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->What makes you so confident about DMK? DMK has no problem in engaging with EJs and US.
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They will try to hobnob with next winner or close to power. Its better to abstain.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->  <b>CPM names Somnath in list </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
<b>Speaker has also withdrawn support to Government</b>
The souring of relations between the Congress and the Left has put a question mark on Speaker Somnath Chatterjee's continuation in office. The Left Front kicked up a controversy on Wednesday as its letter to President Pratibha Patil, <b>withdrawing support to the UPA Government, included Chatterjee's name as one of the 59 Left MPs.</b> 

The development led to speculation that Chatterjee would quit as the Speaker since the Left has withdrawn support to the Government. Though CPM general secretary Prakash Karat left it to Chatterjee to take a decision, he also left him no choice but to quit. When asked about Chatterjee, he said: "I am sure the Speaker will decide on his own, taking into account all the circumstances." This statement made it amply clear that the party would want Speaker to put in his papers.

According to senior leaders, the Left Front just followed "propriety in a formal communication to the President" by including the names of all its members. This, however, left a big question on whether Chatterjee in his capacity as the Speaker could be included in the list of a party. A senior leader referred to DD Basu's "Commentary on Indian Constitution" to say that once a member becomes a Speaker, he did not belong to any party.

Though the Left said that it was Chatterjee's decision, the ruling Congress alliance said it would neither press for the Speaker's resignation nor create circumstances that would lead to such an action.

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So Speaker is out.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>NDA seeks immediate session of Parliament </b>
Pioneer News Service | New Delhi
Fearing that the Government could indulge in horse-trading to prove majority in the Lok Sabha following withdrawal of support by the Left, the NDA has asked the Government to prove its majority without any further delay.

Leaders of the Opposition alliance met at BJP leader LK Advani's residence and decided to approach President Patil on Friday if by then the Government did not announce its decision to convene a special session of Parliament.

"The alliance is united and have decided to vote against the Government if it introduces a vote of confidence," BJP leader Sushma Swaraj told mediapersons. Swaraj pointed out that the ruling establishment has sent conflicting signals about convening the House for a confidence vote.

"The CCPA on Tuesday announced the dates of the monsoon session starting from August 11. There was no announcement of a special session. The Government has created a situation of confusion," Swaraj said.

It is imperative for a minority Government to seek the vote of confidence immediately and we demand that the UPA should seek the trust vote in about a week's time. They have lost their right to take important decisions, she added.

<b>"Monsoon session is different from special session. The Government needs to clear the situation,"</b> she said.

The <b>meeting was attended by SS Dhindsa and Virendra Bajwa of Shiromani Akali Dal, BJ Panda and BK Tripathi of Biju Janata Dal, Sharad Yadav, Digvijay Singh and Prabhunath Singh of JD(U), Sharad Joshi of Maharashtra Gomantak Party, Manohar Joshi and Anant Geethe of Shiv Sena apart from BJP chief Rajnath Singh, senior leaders LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj among others</b>.

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[Guest]

<b>Trust vote onus is on President</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b> According to sources in the Congress, the President would seek legal opinion from constitutional experts after her meeting with the Prime Minister. There is the precedent of former President KR Narayanan asking then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to prove his numbers on the floor of the House. </b>

<b>The BJP has demanded that the Government should seek a trust vote immediately</b>. After a meeting of NDA, BJP's Sushma Swaraj said: "It is <b>imperative for a minority Government to seek the vote of confidence immediately and we demand that the UPA should seek it in about a week's time. They have lost their right to take important decisions."</b>

The Left Front also echoed the demand during its meeting with President Patil. The <b>Left parties even accused the Congress of "resorting to all possible means" to remain in power</b>, with the ruling UPA coalition claiming the support of the Samajwadi Party and several smaller groups to ensure the Government's stability. <b>"Knowing the Congress, it will do anything to remain in power. Let it try," </b>said CPM general secretary Prakash Karat.

However, <b>senior Congress leaders claimed that "technically" nothing much had changed for the UPA Government and there was no compulsion for the President to direct the Government to seek the trust vote.</b> They pointed out that when Dr Manmohan Singh formed the Government in 2004, the Samajwadi Party was supporting the UPA and had given a "letter of support". Left, though not a formal part of the UPA, was supporting it from outside. The SP was still supporting the UPA and only the Left had withdrawn support to the Government, the leaders added.

A senior Congress leader said: "The President has a list of all political parties and their respective strength. She would be well within her right to do simple mathematics and find that the Government still enjoys majority. There could be no requirement of a trust vote."
.........
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[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Jul 10 2008, 02:27 AM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Jul 10 2008, 02:27 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->SAD has come out with statement supporting deal and claiming that BT supports the deal so can they. Didnt say if they would vote. the pressure is to support the Sikh PM.
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<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->Shiv Sena did stupidity during Patil election and SAD will do for Sikh, do these guys will ever think being Indian or they are just Punjabi, Marati or Bengali or Muslim.

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> दरअसल, अमर सिंह ने यूपीए चेयरपर्सन सोनिया गांधी से मुलाकात के बाद एक इंटरव्यू में कई आपत्तिजनक शब्दों का इस्तेमाल किया था। उन्होंने कांग्रेस के साथ अपने नए गठजोड़ को जायज़ ठहराते हुए सवाल किया था - अगर प्रकाश करात सोनिया गांधी से मिलें तो सुहागरात और हम सोनिया गांधी से मिलें तो बलात्कार, क्यों ?
min translation:
"If Karat meets Sonia Gandhi, it's honeymoon and if we meet her, it's rape"said Amar Singh of SP; to this statement many women organisations have objected.
http://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/art...215821.cms

[Guest]

Mudy,

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Shiv Sena did stupidity during Patil election and SAD will do for Sikh, do these guys will ever think being Indian or they are just Punjabi, Marati or Bengali or Muslim.
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UPA could call the bluff here by forcing a vote on 123 deal along with the vote of confidence. Imagine voting against the govt but for the deal.


<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->They will try to hobnob with next winner or close to power. Its better to abstain. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
DMK will go with UPA, all those rain checks from Setu deal will be cashed by MMS/Sonia.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->So Speaker is out. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No. His name was included in list as it adds to CPI (M) numbers. But Left want him at the speaker's post as it's crucial post should things turn nasty in Parliament. Watch Karat's response when asked about Speaker, he responds saying that 'the decision is Chatterjee's personal' - in other words,left wants to eat their misti-dhoi and have it too!

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"The President has a list of all political parties and their respective strength. She would be well within her right to do simple mathematics and find that the Government still enjoys majority. There could be no requirement of a trust vote."
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Using that logic, I can only infer that governors installed by UPA in non-Congress ruled state are math illiterate. Why else do they insist on repeatedly marching their MLAs to prove their majority? Why eh?

acharya,
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->5 - Jharkhand Mukti Morcha<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Why's this on assured list. TV had Shibu Soren fellows firmly on fence.
Also where's Deve Gowda's people on this - he will extract a huge price from UPA given their recent humiliation in Karnataka.

Bodhiji,
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->what will be the constitutional/legal validity of the deal if the shameless people in govt sign it before govt goes down under its own weight? <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
A Gopalkrishanan (ex Chairman of Atomic Regulatory body) was on TV stating that Obama himself has voted against the Hyde Act as all's not hunky-dory on US side either. Our forum gurus watching 123 debate might be able to shed some light on it.


Capt Kumar,
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"If Karat meets Sonia Gandhi, it's honeymoon and if we meet her, it's rape"said Amar Singh of SP; to this statement many women organisations have objected.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Don't see Jaya Bacchan's name in the list of rebels or is it that Rajya Sabha members don't count for this vote of confidence exercise? Wonder how this new found alliance with UPA went down in Bacchan household?

It's very interesting to see UP comes through for UPA. UPA got President installed with help of Mayawati. Now UPA could survive with help of Mulayam Singh.
Meanwhile no one in media is following the money trail. Amar gifted a Bentley to Abhishek last year; Abhishek and Aishwarya sure would look cool in a Maserati or Lamborghini.

[Guest]

<b>Assets case: CBI has evidence to prosecute Maya</b>
Now Queen started her game. These desi politicains are fools trusted her so much.
Same will be store for Mullah Yadav and company.

[ramana]

From Pioneer, 10 July 2008

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Amar Singh does not surprise

Second opinion: Ben Stocking

By asserting "LK Advani is more dangerous than Bush", Mr Amar Singh has betrayed two things. One, he is anti-Hindu. Two, he has very little knowledge of American history. As far as his anti-Hindu stance is concerned, he seems to share this trait with all other Hindu leaders of Uttar Pradesh.


Our first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru was also from the same State. He remained in power for almost 17 years and was out-and-out pro-Muslim. He had openly asked his Home Minister, Sardar Patel, not to associate himself with the rebuilding of the Somnath Temple. He was also instrumental in providing for superior rights to Muslims even though the community had forced the division of India on communal lines.

No Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the regime of Prime Minister Nehru or afterwards did anything to recover the Hindu shrines from the Muslims in the State. It is more likely that they never visited the shrines for the fear of being reprimanded by the Prime Minister. When Ramsay MacDonald gave his communal award in 1932, which provided for separate electorates for the depressed classes, Mahatma Gandhi had gone on a fast unto death. He did not want Harijans to be permanently separated from the Hindu fold.

<b>In sharp contrast to this, Mr VP Singh divided Hindus through the introduction of OBC status. As for the Samajwadi Party, its pro-Muslim leanings are well known. Its leaders have no qualms about heaping insult on Hindu ethos.</b> Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav has held an Iftar party on the banks of the holy Ganga at Haridwar. Would Mr Singh dare to celebrate Diwali in a masjid?

The Marathas, the Sikhs, the Rajputs and the Jats all fought the Muslim and the British invaders. The Hindus of Uttar Pradesh have yet to produce a pro-Hindu leader. The State remains backward primarily because Hindu leaders there suffer from a slavish mentality.

Mr Amar Singh should know that the Americans do not tolerate any attack on their soil. If someone dared to do so, the counter-attack would be swift and massive. When Japan attacked Pearl Harbour, the US responded robustly. The attacks of 9/11 were answered by carpet-bombing Afghanistan. The Americans are not anti-national. It is only a trait of the Hindu leadership, particularly those from Uttar Pradesh.

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I think the word pseudo-secular is a weasel word for it masks the correct word which is Anti-Hindu. I think this should be the new word, for the DIE can hide their anti-Hinduness as pseudo -secularism, which is Modern and can justify it to themselves. I am goin gto start suing this word instead of pseudo-secular.

"Calling things by right name is begining of wisdom" My drafting book on nomnclature.

[Shambhu]

<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> Seconded! Anti-Hindu (AH) is much more fitting.

Sign me up for a signed copy of the book..