China, Pakistan, Central-Asia Military Watch

[Arun_S]

We need a thread to monitor Military development in Indian neighborhood.



So I propose to start this thread as an exception to the title of the IF Sub-section that is dedicated to Indian Military.



Admins pls feel free to move to a different subsection as deemed appropriate. (My suggestion if to create a sub-section called: "Military Discussion")



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[url="http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/?p=3900"]One Chinese J-10 Fighter Crashed in August, its Pilot awarded merit[/url]



Posted on 26 August 2009

August 27 (China Defense Mashup Reporting by Johnathan Weng) — On August 25, the PLA Air Force awarded pilot Meng Fansheng the first-class merit for his successful disposing the air crisis of J-10 fighter.



On the eve of the Army Day which fell on August 1, Meng Fansheng, first-class pilot of the PLA Air Force, successfully parachuted under the situation of the abrupt loss of the engine power when he piloted his J-10 fighter to take off to the height of 680 m from the ground in the flight training.



PLA Air Force’s investigation showed that the AL-31F engine malfunction cause this accident and Meng Fansheng attempted to resume the power for several times, and manipulated his J-10 fighter to avoid the populous areas twice in the handling of the serious special situation.



J-10 is Chinese first indigenous third-generation fighter but its power is AL-31F Turbofan engine imported from Russia. China has developed “Taihang” Turbofan engine but its quality is not stable and cannot be used in J-10 single engine fighter yet.



[url="http://www.china-defense-mashup.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/crash1.jpg"][/url]



In March 2009, one J-10 fighter also met an engine failure during a training flight. Fortunately, the pilot Li Feng made a successful forced landing and saved his fighter.



Meng Fansheng, ethnic Man, graduated from a flying academy of the PLA Air Force in 1996, has flied for 2,000 hours in total. And Li Feng is an air force pilot with more than 2,000 hours of flight time.



In July, a Chinese Air Force JH-7A fighter-bomber participating in the Sino-Russian “PeaceMission-2009″ joint anti-terror exercise crashed at Yaonan military training base in northeast China. Two pilots were dead.

[Bharat_2009]

Title -Chinese J-10 fighter jet in televised drama



http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo...961023.ece



J10s are still powered by Russian AL-31F engines. This is for Indians and Indian media who are whining about LCA and Kaveri engine. Research and development cannot be done over night. It doesn't matter how much money you have. It takes years of hard work. People who have done research based Masters and PhD know the practical difficulties involved in R and D.



PLAAF has mostly Russian fighters. If you take them away, PLAAF is pretty much a sitting duck.



500 x Mig21s

300 x J series (Mig 21 copy)

100 x su 30 MKK

76 x su 27

100 x J11s (Su 27 copy with Russian engine)

500 x Mig 19 bombers (can you believe it???)



source: sinodefence website.





and bunch of Russian transport planes as well.

[Guest]

PLAAF has mostly Russian fighters. If you take them away, PLAAF is pretty much a sitting duck.

Bharat, why do you think a country like China is going to end up in a dogfight, The (C.I.A.) reportedly believes that China has 13 of its 18 CSS-4 long-range strategic missiles pointed at U.S. cities. Let alone fight China, which country is fingering it (China) with its mega tonnage TN multiple warhead punch? It has 10 nuclear powered submarines with long range missiles on the prowl in international waters.



On the contrary India is a sitting duck even with its Sukhois, and Brahmos intact because we have NFU policy and we are not in a position to annihilate China with a shock n awe, whereas they can if they so want with their better tested arsenal n resolve. Pound for pound China has an edge over India!



US has repeatedly fingered India starting from telling it not 2 test, dont go 4 ICBM more than 5000 KM, dont make war with Pakistan, and many other indirect acts like telling Malaysia to refrain from going to use our rocket for satelite use, telling Russia to not ship cyro engines, while china has shipped many missiles and related technology to Iran. China is a UN P5 member, they have leverage in internation power matrix, India is not.



China reportedly test-launches a JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from a submarine at sea toward an inland test range, where is India on SLBM? Well I am not saying India is a infant, but it has to go a long way with foreigners (Antonia maina types) at the helm.



Just 4 an example: Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report has found a huge sum of Rs 50,000 crore unaccounted for and 'missing' from the Central government coffers (last year), thats about 10.5 BILLION dollars - where is this money - why is honest M M Sing khamosh? who got these humongous funds ultimately?



When it comes to nation building (defense included) every penny counts - If u r short by a penny (bank statement) to make it to a million, U wont be called a Millionaire, go n deposit the penny to be called a millionaire. Indian politicians are corrupt n crooks, in China they will be shot at point blank range.



Get a bigger picture Pally.....

[Arun_S]

[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='26 February 2010 - 12:45 PM' timestamp='1267168041' post='104551']

Title -Chinese J-10 fighter jet in televised drama



[url="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5961023.ece"]http://www.timesonli...icle5961023.ece[/url]



J10s are still powered by Russian AL-31F engines. This is for Indians and Indian media who are whining about LCA and Kaveri engine. Research and development cannot be done over night. It doesn't matter how much money you have. It takes years of hard work. People who have done research based Masters and PhD know the practical difficulties involved in R and D.



PLAAF has mostly Russian fighters. If you take them away, PLAAF is pretty much a sitting duck.



500 x Mig21s

300 x J series (Mig 21 copy)

100 x su 30 MKK

76 x su 27

100 x J11s (Su 27 copy with Russian engine)

500 x Mig 19 bombers (can you believe it???)



source: sinodefence website.





and bunch of Russian transport planes as well.

[/quote]



Pray, how can India or any other country that away those engine in PLAAF service?



Similarly can any other country take away the Russian engines from IAF's fighter/transport sqns, given that India has substantial inventory learning from the crunch when USSR impoded and aircrafts were serviceability was less than half. Unlike India, China has deep manufacturing line for most aircrafts except SU27 and FJ-10.



IMHO that is "Khayali Pulaav"

[Bharat_2009]

[quote name='ankit-s' date='27 February 2010 - 11:03 PM' timestamp='1267291519' post='104600']

It has 10 nuclear powered submarines with long range missiles on the prowl in international waters.[/quote]









It has become a habit for media and some Indians to overestimate China's military capabilities.



China's



1. HAN class SSNs are around 25 to 30 yrs old. Imagine Indian Navy having subs more than 25 yrs old. Indian media clowns and bloggers like you are the first ones to cry about it.



Changzheng SSN(Han class) - 26 yrs old



Changzheng SSN(Han class) - 23 yrs old



Changzheng SSN (Han class) - 20 yrs old



US navy also has a mixture and new and pretty old SSBNs but they have been building subs for more than 50yrs. There cannot be any comparison between the US and Chinks.



2. 1 x Shang Class SSN



3. 1 x Xia class SSBN is almost 27 yrs old. According to US congress 2007 report on China's Military, Xia SSBN has a noisy reactor and it is ready for retirement. It is armed with JL-1 SLBMs with single warhead each.





4. It comes down to just 1 x Jin class SSBN. But Chinese can only dream that it has already been inducted without knowing the exact date of launch and induction.



Even if you include all 3 Han class (rust buckets) attack submarines and 1 shang class attack sub, they cannot launch long range ballistic missiles.



We are left with just 2 SSBNs



Total = 2 SSBNs (obviously one of them is a Xia SSBN with a noisy reactor ready for retirement)





I did not even read your comment fully after reading your statement "It has 10 nuclear powered submarines with long range missiles on the prowl in international waters" LOL. We need a honest comparison !! I can go on like this and talk about how their ming class conventional subs were built in the 50s.



Nobody is going to Compare China with Pakistan but at the same time we should not overestimate China.



By 2015, Indian Navy will have 3x SSBNs with long range missiles. INS Arihant is based on Akula II design, according to Russian Ambassador to India. INS Arihant class will be a silent killer !!



I would say this is the correct time for China to threaten us and resolve border disputes in favor of them,

because 5 yrs down the line, Indian Military will be more than a match. In some areas, Indian Military would be too hot to handle (Anti-ballistic missile defense, Scram jet-Hypersonic missiles).



It is now or never !!

[Bharat_2009]

[quote name='Arun_S' date='28 February 2010 - 12:36 AM' timestamp='1267297130' post='104603']

Pray, how can India or any other country that away those engine in PLAAF service?



Similarly can any other country take away the Russian engines from IAF's fighter/transport sqns, given that India has substantial inventory learning from the crunch when USSR impoded and aircrafts were serviceability was less than half. Unlike India, China has deep manufacturing line for most aircrafts except SU27 and FJ-10.



IMHO that is "Khayali Pulaav"

[/quote]





Arun Ji, It was aimed at people who say that India depends on Russia and China does not depend on Russia.



If you look at PLAAF arsenal, we can easily say that it depends on Russia too.



I know that nobody can take away what China purchased !! I just wanted to say that PLAAF has nothing big other than Russian fighters and engines (AL-31F Russian engine powers so called indigenous J10s and J11s-(su27copy) !!



Indian military modernization is going to continue regardless of what Pakistan and China have in their arsenal.



The best line from your article on strategic missiles is "Indian nuclear deterrence is not a two-sum game". In other words, it is not always about China and Pakistan. Awesome !!

[Guest]

[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='28 February 2010 - 01:45 PM' timestamp='1267344450' post='104626']

It has become a habit for media and some Indians to overestimate China's military capabilities.



China's



1. HAN class SSNs are around 25 to 30 yrs old. Imagine Indian Navy having subs more than 25 yrs old. Indian media clowns and bloggers like you are the first ones to cry about it.



Changzheng SSN(Han class) - 26 yrs old



Changzheng SSN(Han class) - 23 yrs old



Changzheng SSN (Han class) - 20 yrs old



US navy also has a mixture and new and pretty old SSBNs but they have been building subs for more than 50yrs. There cannot be any comparison between the US and Chinks.







2. 1 x Xia class SSBN is almost 27 yrs old. According to US congress report on China's Military, Xia SSBN has a noisy reactor and it is ready for retirement.





3. Now we are left with so called Jin class and Shang class SSBNs. Even Chinese military experts don't know how many Jin class and Shang Class SSBNs are being built or inducted.



It comes down to just 2 x SSBNs (assuming that Jin class and so called shang class subs have already been inducted). Even if you include all 3 Han class rust buckets nuclear attack submarines, it cannot launch long range ballistic missiles.





I did not even read your comment fully after reading your statement "It has 10 nuclear powered submarines with long range missiles on the prowl in international waters" LOL. We need a honest comparison !! I can go on like this and talk about how ming class subs



Nobody is going to Compare China with Pakistan but at the same time we should not overestimate China.



By 2015, Indian Navy will have 3x SSBNs with long range missiles. INS Arihant is based on Akula II design, according to Russian Ambassador to India. INS Arihant class will be a silent killer !!



I would say this is the correct time for China to threaten us and resolve border disputes in favor of them,

because 5 yrs down the line, Indian Military will be more than a match. In some areas, Indian Military would be better (Anti-ballistic missile defense, Scram jet-Hypersonic missiles).

[/quote]







Forget India, read what US (superpower) is worried about as 4 as growing China is concerned!



Some snippets from Defense News:

Senior U.S. officials told a House panel on Jan. 13 that China continues modernizing its missile, naval and fighter aircraft arsenals at a rapid rate, but they raised new concerns about the Asian giant's efforts to develop new offensive cyber and space assets.



China's Peoples' Liberation Army is making "significant strides" in developing cyberwarfare concepts that range from defending Chinese networks to conducting "offensive operations against adversary networks,"



"We are seeing China's emergence as an international space power," Gregson said. "China is investing heavily in a broad range of military and dual-use space programs, including reconnaissance, navigation and timing, and communication satellites, as well as its manned program."



Gregson cited China's January 2007 satellite shot-down as an example of its "growing" ability to take out space systems.



Gregson noted China's announced 2009 defense budget topped out at $70.6 billion. Pentagon brass think the number actually comes in around $150 billion, or more, Gregson said.



According to 2009 data the Pacific Command chief presented the House committee, that weaponry includes 27 destroyers, 48 frigates, more than 70 patrol crafts armed with missiles, 55 amphibious vessels, 40 mine warfare ships and 50 support crafts.



China also possesses what he called "the largest conventional submarine force in the world, totaling more than 60 boats" to go along with "a number of" nuclear-powered fast attack and ballistic missile subs. The PLA, Willard contended, is also developing a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-2, which is "capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States."

in 2007, a Chinese attack submarine successfully penetrated the defensive screen of the USS Kitty Hawk in the Pacific Ocean and surfaced within easy “kill” range of the U.S. carrier. That indicates that (A) the Chinese submarine crews are far more skilled that previously thought, that the U.S. Navy is way too overconfident, or © both options could be true. It is actually good the Chinese submarine surfaced so the U.S. Navy had the chance to experience a “wake up call” and tighten its obviously porous defensive screen around its carriers.

digg.com/.../Chinese_Submarine_Out_Maneuvers_USN_Carrier_Group -



1 Feb 2010 ... A Taiwanese newspaper has reported that a Chinese submarine entered Taiwan's territorial waters



SSN

Type 091 Han class - 5 boats

Type 093 Shang class - 2 boats (more under construction)

SSBN

Type 092 Xia class - 1 boat

Type 094 Jin class - 2 boats (more under construction)



Source Wikipedia........

China now has the world’s largest submarine fleet and it is growing at a rapid rate as China’s military expansion continues. The analysis states that China has “the largest conventional submarine force in the world, totaling more than 60 boats” plus “a number of nuclear-powered fast-attack and ballistic missile subs.” Does that mean China has approximately 70 or more submarines?

http://stevenmcollins.com/WordPress/?p=1577



The more you read the more you stop loling at your ignorance!



China has more mullah than India (7 times more FOREX than India)

China¨s military spending is 3 times that of India.

China has a second biggest of submarine after the US.

China has satelite killers (proven tech)

China has megaton punch of TN, India has not.

China has long range missiles reaching USA.



Above factors are crucial when you fight any war and not the dogfight capability alone ......



During Kargil war India wanted to introduce the Kargil Tax....

President K R Naryanan is understood to have given his verbal assent to a government proposal that aims at raising additional tax revenue for meeting the expenditure arising out of the Kargil operations.

Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha had a half-an-hour-long meeting with Narayanan on July 13 to apprise him of the necessity to impose a mid-term tax to finance the cost of the Kargil operations.

India has 278 billion of FOREX, out of which we owe 240 billions to IMF-WB-ADB and others so what are we left with? 38 Billions? well our fiscal deficit is higher than that amount, hence our net result? India is in minus.........India is borrowing heavily - bad business, while China is better placed and can afford to add anything to its armed forces.



India´s Tax GDP collection ratio is lowest at 8.6 percent whereas Indonesia has double that of India, if India does not make money, how will they spend without resorting to borrowing? India is moving one step forward and two step backwards.



Its a common sense, no money means no missiles, no munition!

[manish]

[i][i]Forget India, read what US (superpower) is worried about as 4 as growing China is concerned![/i][/i]



Ankit though I share ur anxiety and frustration but I guess u are reading too much into china's prowess





America has habit of creating perceived enemies ala cold war, wmd's now china to ensure mollahs for its MIC. No read to read too much into this.



Some snippets from Defense News:

digg.com/.../Chinese_Submarine_Out_Maneuvers_USN_Carrier_Group -



1 Feb 2010 ... A Taiwanese newspaper has reported that a Chinese submarine entered Taiwan's territorial waters



So what.Question is would it have been shot or not.





SSN

Type 091 Han class - 5 boats

Type 093 Shang class - 2 boats (more under construction)

SSBN

Type 092 Xia class - 1 boat

Type 094 Jin class - 2 boats (more under construction)



Source Wikipedia........

I have come to rely more on bharat and arun after reading a lot .Hope u listen to what they are saying.





http://stevenmcollins.com/WordPress/?p=1577



The more you read the more you stop loling at your ignorance!



China has more mullah than India (7 times more FOREX than India)

So what it is a millstone on china's neck.America with the stroke of a pen can finish those reserves ie refuse to honor them.This in my humble opinion is leading to china being economically more entrapped as they have done building a export dependent economy.



China¨s military spending is 3 times that of India.



True but quality seems to be eluding them even now.



China has a second biggest of submarine after the US.



Again maybe 1944 hitler had more submarines .Most of them are rust buckets.



China has satelite killers (proven tech)

True india is lagging , must get their act together .Hopefully another year and a half.





China has megaton punch of TN, India has not.

Again true.But India has bug proof TN capability for time being as well as nuclear weapons.China to my mind will not take such foolish chances.It might be annihilated along with India totally.Even their three gorges dam is vulnerable to indian missiles even without nuclear weapons.At least a third of chinese will be washed off this earth.



China has long range missiles reaching USA.

Good for them and india



Above factors are crucial when you fight any war and not the dogfight capability alone ......

I guess I have put ur mind to rest if not we can debate this further



During Kargil war India wanted to introduce the Kargil Tax....



Again the point being???







India has 278 billion of FOREX, out of which we owe 240 billions to IMF-WB-ADB and others so what are we left with? 38 Billions? well our fiscal deficit is higher than that amount, hence our net result? India is in minus.........India is borrowing heavily - bad business, while China is better placed and can afford to add anything to its armed forces.

Nothing wrong here.Normal.India is okay its china who has massaged its statistics and is facing the heat of the global meltdown.Our still closed economy at least helped us in this.



India´s Tax GDP collection ratio is lowest at 8.6 percent whereas Indonesia has double that of India, if India does not make money, how will they spend without resorting to borrowing? India is moving one step forward and two step backwards.

Correct GST should roll by march 2011 will start to see sustained improvement after that



Its a common sense, no money means no missiles, no munition!



China should worry...

[Guest]

[quote name='manish' date='01 March 2010 - 10:30 PM' timestamp='1267462350' post='104681']



Ankit though I share ur anxiety and frustration but I guess u are reading too much into china's prowess[/quote]



China´s prowess is better than India pound for pound!

Any question?

America has habit of creating perceived enemies ala cold war, wmd's now china to ensure mollahs for its MIC. No read to read too much into this.

China has US worried because they have nuke missiles pointed to east coast of the USA, and it is belligerent in UNSC against USA global interests! IMO this is a only country which has threatened to nuke USA (Los Angles as per NYT in 1995) on Taiwan issue in a closed door meeting. China is believed to have about 410 nuclear weapons. Approximately 20 warheads are on long-range missiles that can reach the United States.

Some snippets from Defense News:

digg.com/.../Chinese_Submarine_Out_Maneuvers_USN_Carrier_Group -



1 Feb 2010 ... A Taiwanese newspaper has reported that a Chinese submarine entered Taiwan's territorial waters



So what.Question is would it have been shot or not.

If that was so simple as you said.....

Provocation is something, this is an act of war when a P-5 nation´s nuke submarine is sunk by a hostile nation, and there are repercussions and consequences of unimaginative values involved therein....

I have come to rely more on bharat and arun after reading a lot .Hope u listen to what they are saying.

Guide yourself and not others, above two named people have been debunked several times on merit......Just read more into it...BTW I have nothing against anyone but for their intangible posts which collide against the facts n figures.

Again maybe 1944 hitler had more submarines .Most of them are rust buckets.

Hitler is a history, and Germany is a part of EU, why would you bring in unnecessary stuff here?

True india is lagging , must get their act together .Hopefully [u]another year and a half.[/u]

Nobody in the DRDO has such a timeline on anti-sat missiles, where did you get this weird stuff from ?

Again true.But India has bug proof TN capability for time being as well as nuclear weapons.China to my mind will not take such foolish chances.It might be annihilated along with India totally.Even their three gorges dam is vulnerable to indian missiles even without nuclear weapons.At least a third of chinese will be washed off this earth.

China is a bigger territory than India. mathematically and practically India has more chances of being annihilated by China´s MT TN warheads than China. Three gorges dam notwithstanding which is not crucial to Chinese survival if decimated.

I guess I have put ur mind to rest if not we can debate this further

Welcome and be my guest!

Again the point being???

The point being that India is not in the same league as China which is bigger, powerful, more richer (2.3 trillion FOREX), a P-5 nation, against which we dont count in the International power matrix, in the UNSC they have closed door meetings on international issues as Palestine, Kashmir, Iran and others, I hope you understood in nutshell how nations are arm twisted and delivered veiled threats in diplomatic language.









Nothing wrong here.Normal.India is okay its china who has massaged its statistics and is facing the heat of the global meltdown.Our still closed economy at least helped us in this.



Try to get a hold on economics 101 or subscribe to foreign affairs magazine to learn more on this....China has outpaced India in IMPEX, poverty, development index.....I recently visited Shanghai, you do the same and compare it with Mumbai!

Correct GST should roll by march 2011 will start to see sustained improvement after that

You are once again banking on future of India and its future progress - look at PRESENT and try to compare apples to apples, and in the same vein, India has the lowest TAX GDP ratio collection. I have White House to sell too in Washington DC you wanna buy!

[Arun_S]

[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='28 February 2010 - 01:49 PM' timestamp='1267344677' post='104627']

The best line from your article on strategic missiles is "Indian nuclear deterrence is not a two-sum game". In other words, it is not always about China and Pakistan. Awesome !!

[/quote]



Bharat: That statement is not mine but the venerable K.Subramaium-saab, by which he means that India will never have one on one nuclear war with Pakistan OR China. Indian policy makes see Pakistan nuclear capability as an extension of China (and Pakis will use the nuke only upon Chinese command) , and that in case of nuclear war with Pakistan, Indian nuclear retaliation will be against both countries, no matter which one of the two lobbled the first nuke on India, because such hot war will see them go to war with India simultaneously.



The two sum game reality is well known to China, as well as US and other countries. Indian nuclear reprisal on China is destabilizing because it will involves China to also launch its ICBM on other countries, and that is why US have always pressurized India to sucker up, and not enter/play the nuclear game.

[manish]

[quote name='ankit-s' date='03 March 2010 - 04:00 AM' timestamp='1267568531' post='104733']



You are once again banking on future of India and its future progress - look at PRESENT and try to compare apples to apples, and in the same vein, India has the lowest TAX GDP ratio collection. I have White House to sell too in Washington DC you wanna buy!

[/quot]



[url="http://Could PRC's true fiscal deficit be 15% of GDP??"]Could PRC's true fiscal deficit be 15% of GDP??[/url]





China: When China publishes its budget report on March 5, Beijing may congratulate itself for achieving 8.7 per cent GDP growth with a fiscal deficit that is just 3 per cent of GDP. But the real cost of stimulating the economy has been much bigger - thanks to frantic borrowing by local governments.



State media reported that China’s local governments borrowed 3.8 trillion yuan ($556 billion) from banks last year, to keep the economy humming. They also raised 450 billion yuan ($65.9 billion) indirectly via the bond market. Add those debts to Beijing's own, and the real 2009 fiscal deficit could be 15 per cent of 2009's GDP.



That sounds scary, especially as local governments may not have spent their borrowed funds wisely. But a sovereign debt crisis is unlikely. Even if Beijing absorbed all the local debts, total public borrowing would remain safely below 60 per cent of GDP.



Beijing is unlikely to acknowledge the debts as its own. That means future defaults could be left for banks to mop up. UBS expects 2009’s credit expansion to create up to 3 trillion yuan ($439 billion) of non-performing loans over the next few years, mainly because of lending to local governments.



That 3 trillion yuan is equal to 10 times the 2008 earnings of the three largest listed banks and would be enough to bring the non-performing loan ratio in the banking system up from less than 2 percent to 9 percent, based on current asset levels.



If bonds too default, any foreign investors could find their situation really bleak - based on the few previous defaults, they could end up with mere cents on the dollar. For now, Beijing may be happy to take a hands-off approach. After all, banks may be able to grow out of the problem.



But if banks do take big losses, and private investors are scared away, it is to Beijing that the lenders will turn for new capital. In that case, the game of "pass the parcel" could end up back in the central government's hands after all.





P.S Request only.Ths is just one article.I propose to add another four as I get hold of them.Would like your answers after they are completed.Thanks and please remember we are on the same side.

[manish]

[quote name='ankit-s' date='03 March 2010 - 04:00 AM' timestamp='1267568531' post='104733']

You are once again banking on future of India and its future progress - look at PRESENT and try to compare apples to apples, and in the same vein, India has the lowest TAX GDP ratio collection. I have White House to sell too in Washington DC you wanna buy!

[/quote]





[url="http://India's elephant charges on through the economic crisis"]India's elephant charges on through the economic crisis[/url]





Stimulus has its costs. The central government's fiscal deficit expanded from 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2007-08 to a provisional figure of 5.9 per cent in 2009-09 and an estimate of 6.5 per cent for this year. If one includes the states, the deficit jumped from 4 per cent of GDP in 2007-08, to 8.5 per cent in 2008-09 and a forecast of 9.7 per cent this year. India's nominal GDP grew at an average rate of 14 per cent {nominal}between 2004-05 and 2009-10. That makes deficits of 10 per cent of GDP quite sustainable. I wish that were equally true of the UK.

...

But India has had a "good crisis". Now its task is to unwind the exceptional support given to the economy and push through the reforms needed to sustain fast and inclusive growth.

Before the crisis the country's gross savings rate had hit 36 per cent of GDP (see chart). Given the country's attractions to long-term foreign capital, that would allow an investment rate of close to 40 per cent of GDP.

The extent of the optimism became evident during a week spent in India last month. Among the highlights was a conference on a book of essays in honour of Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the planning commission and, after Manmohan Singh, prime minister, India's most influential economic policymaker of the last two decades (and a friend of mine for 39 years).*



I was struck by the upbeat tone of the essay on "macroeconomic performance and policies, 2000-8" by Shankar Acharya, a former chief economic adviser to the Indian government. Dr Acharya is the most sober of competent analysts of the Indian economy. Indeed, the book gives a strong sense of the confidence of the technocratic elite in India's performance and prospects. Similar confidence is palpable among the business elite. This confidence makes this a radically different India from the one I knew when I was the senior divisional economist for India, at the World Bank, in the mid-1970s.



The emergence of an elite consensus on where the country is going is clear to any regular visitor.



When entering the commerce ministry, bastion of opponents of open markets in the 1970s, I was struck by a poster describing India as the "world's largest free-market democracy".



Another feature is the belief that the pragmatism of India's policies, particularly over global finance and the balance of payments, had proved correct. Those in charge of a vast country with so many vulnerable people are rightly wary of making their economy hostage to the sociopathic tendencies of the financial sector.

Exhausted by the burden of its pretensions, the UK should soon offer its seat on the security council of the United Nations to its former colony. Its condition would be that France does the same in favour of the European Union. Whether or not such enlightened statesmanship is forthcoming (presumably not), we are moving into the age of continental superpowers. Asia will be home to not one, but two, of them.

[Guest]

[quote name='manish' date='05 March 2010 - 05:53 AM' timestamp='1267748113' post='104842']

[quote name='ankit-s' date='03 March 2010 - 04:00 AM' timestamp='1267568531' post='104733']



You are once again banking on future of India and its future progress - look at PRESENT and try to compare apples to apples, and in the same vein, India has the lowest TAX GDP ratio collection. I have White House to sell too in Washington DC you wanna buy!

[/quot]



[url="http://Could PRC's true fiscal deficit be 15% of GDP??"]Could PRC's true fiscal deficit be 15% of GDP??[/url]

State media reported that China’s local governments borrowed 3.8 trillion yuan ($556 billion) from banks last year, to keep the economy humming. They also raised 450 billion yuan ($65.9 billion) indirectly via the bond market. Add those debts to Beijing's own, and the real 2009 fiscal deficit could be 15 per cent of 2009's GDP.

Manishji external debt is something else, that must be paid back in the same hard currency as USD-EURO as borrowed, cause similar things happen in India too whenever there is interbank borrowing, and local bodies borrowing in Rupees, so do our states n union territories who borrow locally. This does not effect a sovereign debt crisis so dont confuse it with local borrowings in Yaun or as in Rupees in India.



To give you an example:



Lets say a state like Kerala-Kashmir does not pay back and (which they havnt) and they have defaulted, but what happens? The central government keeps on helping them (Aid/Grant) because its a part of their own country.



However, Internationally, if a country like Pakistan or Sudan defaults on IMF or WB loans, they are not entitled to borrow further, because their rating has been downgraded.



So in the same vein, if the Indian state/union territory defaults, it gets away, but such is not the case internationally where you are bound by your signature on the dotted line and your ability to borrow further is restricted. Failed state it becomes!



Sovereign debt differs big time than a local debt within one´s own country!



Even your article says in the followings:

That sounds scary, especially as local governments may not have spent their borrowed funds wisely. But a sovereign debt crisis is unlikely. Even if Beijing absorbed all the local debts, total public borrowing would remain safely below 60 per cent of GDP. Beijing is unlikely to acknowledge the debts as its own. That means future defaults could be left for banks to mop up. That 3 trillion yuan is equal to 10 times the 2008 earnings of the three largest listed banks and would be enough to bring the non-performing loan ratio in the banking system up from less than 2 percent to 9 percent, based on current asset levels.

Same thing happened to Iceland, its 3 biggest banks defaulted, their combined debt exceeded approximately six times the nation's gross domestic product of 19 billion USD. Iceland stated that the state did not intend to take over any of the banks' foreign debts or assets. Instead, new banks were established around the domestic operations of the banks, and the old banks ran into bankruptcy. Iceland was not involved in a sovereign debt fiasco.



BTW China is a cash cow sitting on 2.3 trillion FOREX which makes it roughly 230 billions annually as Interest and other income earned from such smart investment by Chinese, while China has just 360 billions n external debt versus India´s 240 billions.



As of Kerala, V S Achuthanandan wants to borrow n borrow as if there is no tomorrow: The restrictions on borrowing from within the country must be removed - says he. www.keralacm.gov.in/

[manish]

[quote name='ankit-s' date='05 March 2010 - 04:19 PM' timestamp='1267785713' post='104851']

ame='manish' date='05 March 2010 - 05:53 AM' timestamp='1267748113' post='104842']





Same thing happened to Iceland, its 3 biggest banks defaulted, their combined debt exceeded approximately six times the nation's gross domestic product of 19 billion USD. Iceland stated that the state did not intend to take over any of the banks' foreign debts or assets. Instead, new banks were established around the domestic operations of the banks, and the old banks ran into bankruptcy. Iceland was not involved in a sovereign debt fiasco.



BTW China is a cash cow sitting on 2.3 trillion FOREX which makes it roughly 230 billions annually as Interest and other income earned from such smart investment by Chinese, while China has just 360 billions n external debt versus India´s 240 billions.



As of Kerala, V S Achuthanandan wants to borrow n borrow as if there is no tomorrow: The restrictions on borrowing from within the country must be removed - says he. www.keralacm.gov.in/

[/quote]









Ankit Ji sorry for taking so long to post, was busy in some other personnel affairs. Three things I want to concede

1. Pound for pound china is way ahead absolutely no question.

2. Though I have personally never been to china but my best friend has and he always says that shanghai and Beijing are better developed than even new york also.

3. Most of my arguments are projecting the future, though I consider them valid, today any comparison is a joke so I guess u win this debate for now and anyhow future projection is not a very healthy sign of current affairs of any country so its best for time to reveal things. Hope for having more healthy discussions with u.

[manish]

[url="http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chagossian"]Diego Garcia[/url]



The Chagossian people's ancestry is mostly of African heritage, particularly coming from Madagascar, Mozambique and other African nations including (Mauritius). There is also a significant proportion of Indian ancestry. The French brought them over as slaves from Mauritius in 1786. Others arrived as fishermen, farmers, and coconut plantation workers during the 19th century.



The Chagossians speak Chagossian Creole, a mix of Indigenous language and French-based creole language and part of the Bourbonnais Creole family. Chagossian Creole is still spoken by some of their descendents in Mauritius and the Seychelles.



The Archipelago later passed to the control of the United Kingdom and came to form part of the Colony of Mauritius.



Contents [hide]

1 Exile from homeland

2 Right to return

3 Return frustrated

4 New developments

5 See also

6 References

7 External links





[edit] Exile from homeland

In 1965, as part of a deal to grant Mauritian independence, the Chagos Archipelago was split off from the Colony and came to form the British Indian Ocean Territory. The territory's new constitution was set out in a statutory instrument imposed unilaterally without any referendum or consultation with the Chagossians and it envisaged no democratic institutions. The constitution prohibited anyone from residing in the islands without a permit.



In the following years from 1967 and 1973, the Chagossians, then numbering some 2,000 people, were expelled by the British government, first to the island of Peros Banhos, 100 miles away from their homeland, and then, in 1973, to Mauritius (For the relationship between the Chagos Archipelago and Mauritius, see Chagos Archipelago). Their forced (and, according to some authorities, illegal) expulsion and dispossession was for the purpose of establishing a United States air and naval base on Diego Garcia, where a small contingent of UK military personnel is stationed as well.



[edit] Right to return

In 1983, the United Kingdom gave the Mauritian government £4 million, of which the Mauritian government transferred £1 million to those deported Chagossians dwelling in that country as refugees.[citation needed]



Later, some 30 years after their deportation, the Chagossians demanded the right to return to their homeland. Their case was brought to the High Court of Justice in London by a British firm of solicitors, Sheridans, and on November 3, 2000 the High Court ruled in their favour, stipulating that they should be allowed to return to their homeland.[citation needed]



From November 5 to November 23, 2001, over two hundred Chagossians maintained a vigil outside the British High Commission in Port Louis, Mauritius. On May 21, 2002, the British Foreign Affairs Secretary Jack Straw signed a document conferring British citizenship upon the Chagossians,[citation needed] later implemented in "Section 6: The Chagossians: Citizenship" of the British Overseas Territories Act 2002.



[edit] Return frustrated



Flag of the Chagossian community.Despite the court judgement recognising the Chagossians' rights, the islands were uninhabited and there were no civilian transportation links. Most of the Chagossians remained in impoverished conditions, unable to facilitate their own return. Promises of the British Government to assist in resettlement failed to materialise.[citation needed]



On October 9, 2003, in a controversial judgement, Justice Ousley of the High Court decreed that the Chagossians had no right to any compensation from the British Government. Then, in June 2004, the British Government effectively overruled the 2000 court decision in favour of the Chagossians by an order-in-council.[citation needed] The Chagossians and their advocates appealed this move to the High Court of England and Wales and the European Court of Human Rights.[citation needed]



[edit] New developments

In early April 2006, a group of around 100 Chagossians were permitted to visit the British Indian Ocean Territory for the first time in over 30 years in a trip. The trip was organised and financed by the British Foreign Office and the government of Mauritius.[1]



On May 11, 2006, the Chagossians won their case before the High Court, which ruled that they are entitled to return to the Chagos Archipelago. It remains to be seen whether when or how the judgement might be implemented in practice.[2] The UK government launched an appeal at the Court of Appeal against the May 11 ruling in June 2006. The Foreign office has put forward an argument based on the treatment of the Japanese Canadians following the attacks on Pearl Harbor.[3]



On May 23, 2007, the Court of Appeal dismissed the UK Government's appeal saying that the methods used to stop the Chagos families to return to the islands were "unlawful" and "an abuse of power". The Government was refused leave to appeal to the House of Lords, but have stated an intention to appeal to the Lords against that refusal. The Government launched an appeal to the Law Lords in November 2007.



On October 22, 2008, the Law Lords reached a decision on the appeal made by the Secretary of State For Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs of the UK, David Milliband. They found in favour of the Government in a 3-2 verdict, ending the legal process in the UK and dashing the islanders hopes of return. The judgement was published on the UK parliament website[4].



The United State lease on the naval base at Diego Garcia is due to expire in 2016.[citation needed]





If China can take back Hong Kong from the British why has India not been able to take back Diego Garcia from the Americans? Until we have politicians like cangrassi, lallo etc. we will never be able to even talk about it by our bought and paid for media forget taking it back

[manish]

[url="http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2010/03/j-10-down.html"]China Defense Blog: J-10 Down.[/url]



It was reported by the local media that a J-10 of the PLAAF 2nd Air Division crashed near Guilin in 2007, the recently surfaced internet photos seem to confirm that report.

[Arun_S]

March 30, 2010 00:20 IST | Updated: March 30, 2010 00:20 IST NEW DELHI, March 30, 2010

[url="http://beta.thehindu.com/news/national/article321547.ece?css=print"]India shoring up presence along border with China[/url]

India on Monday said it is shoring up its military presence in the northern borders and upgrading infrastructure along the border with China in the light of Beijing's rapid infrastructure development and its upgraded military force projection in Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang province.



“India also remains conscious and alert about the implications of China's military modernisation…rapid infrastructure development in the Tibet Autonomous Region and Xinjiang province has considerably upgraded China's military force projection capability and strategic operational flexibility,” the Defence Ministry said in its2009-10 annual report released on Monday.



While efforts to build 73 roads near Sino-Indian border have been taken up with vigour, Indian Air Force upgraded advanced landing grounds, including at Daulat Beg Oldie, to facilitate landing of AN-32 transport aircraft while the Army is raising two Mountain Divisions in the north-east and plans to acquire ultra-light howitzers that can be dropped via helicopters at higher altitudes.



The report also said that based on strategic and cooperative partnership, relations with China progressed well during the last year. It said there was convergence of views and actions on various issues in international fora and a regular mechanism for exchanges in military sphere has been established.



In its 2008-09 report, the Ministry said that China's defence modernisation needed to be monitored carefully in the foreseeable future for the implications it can have on the security and defence of the country.





[b]Ties with Pakistan [/b]

Turning to Pakistan, in the latest report India reasserted that meaningful dialogue with Pakistan could be possible only in an environment free of terror and said Islamabad should take measures to dismantle terror infrastructure on its soil directed against India.



While expressing concern with the worsening security situation inside Pakistan as also with continuing infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir, in its latest annual report the Defence Ministry underscored that India exercised “exemplary restraint in the face of gravest provocation.”



“The increasing incidents of terrorism within Pakistan targeting, inter alia, the security establishment and senior military personnel, and the rising tide of extremism underlined the serious threat to Pakistan itself and to the region,” the report said.



On several occasions, Defence Minister A.K. Antony mentioned that some 42 terror camps operate on the other side of the border. The report said these demonstrate the continuing ambivalence of Pakistan in its actions against terrorist organisations.



“India has never shut the door for dialogue with Pakistan, and is of the view that meaningful dialogue with Pakistan is possible only in an environment free of terror or threat of terror. This calls for Pakistan to take effective measures to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism on its soil which is directed against India,” the report said.





[b]Cooperation with Dhaka [/b]

On the other hand, it praised Bangladesh and noted that since the restoration of multi-party democracy there, relations with Dhaka have strengthened. It also appreciated increasing cooperation with Bangladesh in security matters, especially vis-à-vis Indian insurgent groups operating from its territory.



Similarly, it observed that cooperation with Myanmar in security matters is being enhanced, while India continues developmental activities in the country which lies at the tri-junction of South and South-East Asia.



On Sri Lanka, the report said, there lies “a historic opportunity” to find lasting political settlement in Northern Sri Lanka after the conclusion of operations against the LTTE.



On Afghanistan, the latest report said that security and stability there was critical to India's own security concerns and takes note of reports of deployment of additional 30,000 U.S. troops in the AfPak region by May this year and President Barack Obama's July 2011 time frame for troop's withdrawal from Afghanistan.



On Iran's controversial Nuclear Programme, the report said India continues to support a peaceful resolution of the issue which would be in the interest of peace and stability in West Asia.

[Arun_S]

[url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5743124.cms?prtpage=1"]US military aid to Pak matter of concern: Air chief[/url]

PTI, Mar 30, 2010, 04.25pm IST



NEW DELHI: The US military aid to Pakistan is a matter of concern for India which has been conveyed to the Obama administration, Air Chief Marshal P V Naik said on Tuesday.



"The aid being given to Pakistan is a matter of concern to us definitely and we have made it known. We have not hidden anything," Naik said soon after taking over as the Chairman, Chiefs of Staffs Committee here.



The US has been providing F-16 combat jets, air-to-air missiles and other equipment worth millions of dollars to Pakistan as military aid for fighting the Taliban terrorists on its soil. Pakistan is scheduled to get 18 of the Block 52 F-16s, Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigate by winter and is expected to receive Shadow Drones within a year.



Islamabad is also to receive equipment capable of converting 1,000 traditional munitions into "smart bombs" that can strike targets with precisions.



In the last three years, the US has provided 14 F-16s, five fast patrol boats, 115 self-propelled howitzer field artillery cannons, more than 450 vehicles, hundreds of night- vision goggles, day and night scopes, radios, protective vests and first aid items to Pakistan's security forces.



With this new arms aid, US counterinsurgency assistance fund for Pakistan is slated to increase to USD 1.2 billion in fiscal year 2011 from $700 million in the current fiscal.



India has asked the US to ensure that the weapons supplied to Pakistan to fight Taliban and extremists elements are not directed against this country.



Asked if the military aid issue could have any impact on the chances of the American companies in the fray to supply 126 combat aircraft to the Indian Air Force, Naik said, "As far as 126 multi-role combat aircraft deal is concerned, it will be a fair and square assessment... presently, there is no connection between the two."



He said the IAF was going ahead with the trials of the six companies offering their aircraft and "after that, we will sit down to finalise it (the award of the contract.)"



On reports that the IAF was developing its air fields in the Eastern sector to counter the Chinese threat, the IAF chief said the upgrade of infrastructure in the region was "long overdue" but was not "country specific." He added the air fields were being upgraded to operate the latest modern aircraft in the IAF inventory.



Asked if the recent test-firings of the Agni, Prithvi and Dhanush ballistic missiles were aimed at sending out a message, Naik said, "Whenever we have to give a message to anybody, we give it loud and clear. Whenever there is a message to be given, we will let you know."

[malushahi]

Adding a few reports/assessments from various US agencies. Even thought written from a US perspective, they are as important in analyzing Asia-Pacific affairs from an Indian standpoint.



China Military Power Report 2009, USDOD



http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_M...t_2009.pdf

[malushahi]

A brief assessment of Asia-Pac countries by USPACCOMM:



http://armedservices.house.gov/pdfs/FC03...032510.pdf