07-01-2010, 06:24 AM
(This post was last modified: 07-01-2010, 06:27 AM by Arun_S.)
This thread to discuss developments that is taking India India to Two Front War, and how best to prepare Indian nation to measure up to it (not just military but full nation).
There are indications that Dashahara / Diwali will be on the border with Durga in Chandi roop.
A few indicators are:
1) the failure of P Chidambaram's trip to TSP
2)US dismissal of McChrystal which puts pressure on US Amin to how a win in trade-off
3)Causing reliance on TSP to deliver good Taliban to provide a honorable exit for US
4) PRC TSP nuke deal is another sop
5)Will cause TSP to overreach.
TSP always over reaches when it thinks it has the US on its side.
So expect a 'bold' attack.
The good think is AKA already told the forces to prepare for two front war.
[quote name='Arun_S' date='30 June 2010 - 09:02 PM' timestamp='1277945662' post='107240']
This thread to discuss developments that is taking India India to Two Front War, and how best to prepare Indian nation to measure up to it (not just military but full nation).
There are indications that Dashahara / Diwali will be on the border with Durga in Chandi roop.
[/quote]
What is this two-front war? Against whom?
The losers cant even tackle domestic war with commies. Like 100 police die every two weeks in commie attacks. Makes me believe China could just walk in and take Delhi if they wanted to. I'm pretty sure they could totally crush Indian army.
[quote name='Pandyan' date='01 July 2010 - 04:00 AM' timestamp='1277977927' post='107245']
What is this two-front war? Against whom?
The losers cant even tackle domestic war with commies. Like 100 police die every two weeks in commie attacks. Makes me believe China could just walk in and take Delhi if they wanted to. I'm pretty sure they could totally crush Indian army.
[/quote]
There are big differences between the two front situation and the naxal situation. The naxals are able to do what they do largely because of political patronage from the congis. Their links with the congis are very deep. Note that they act mostly in non-congi ruled states and mysteriously disaapear the moment the inc is in power.....
The congis for all their stupidity/weakness and lack of uncompromising nationalism wont patronise the china/pak axis...
The security forces have brought to controllable levels violence unleashed by jehadis in the kashmir valley - these elements have far more resources etc behind them than the maoists...also, the armed forces are not the crpf...
There was a 2 front threat in 1965, 1971 and the mid-1980s, when we were relatively much weaker than china-pak ... no nukes, for example. The only thing we need to do to ensure that two front conflict does not become reality is to get rid of the nuclear NFU commitment (or at least, make that commitment ambiguous enough for the other side to understand that in the worst case, we will escalate to nukes at a time that cannot be predicted ireespective of the annihilation that will happen to us afterwards....
Security will increase further if we strengthen our deterrent by testing TNs....till then, we make do with untested POK-II based TNs. A-III must be deployed at the earliest, with A-V also developed on an urgent basis....
In any case, my reading is that there is a 2 year or so window of opportunity they have to thrust a two front war on us. Once enough A-III are in place, with A-V beginning induction, the costs for them will be simply too high....According to BK, there would be reasonable A-III numbers in place by now...I am assuming delays and speculating on a 2 yr window of opportunity the other side has. Maybe chandraguptaji knows more abt A-iii/V situation.
[quote name='Kritavarma' date='01 July 2010 - 07:08 AM' timestamp='1277982045' post='107248']
There are big differences between the two front situation and the naxal situation.
[/quote]
I was just commenting on the ability of Indian military and para-military units to be able to take on any sort of enemy force. Their antiquated methods of training, undermanned officer corps, ill-equipped soldiers who are already operating with shitty equipment, are all factors to ponder upon when considering this "two front" war. Not to mention, there is also the civilian side which has to be mobilized and ready for such an event. Note, these are the same people who got completely befuddled by 10 pakis who basically ran their entire city for 5 days. Personally, I don't think India could even handle a single front war, for example against China. It would just be a matter of time until Delhi got ran over by zipperheads.
[quote name='Pandyan' date='01 July 2010 - 10:05 AM' timestamp='1277999878' post='107251']
I was just commenting on the ability of Indian military and para-military units to be able to take on any sort of enemy force. Their antiquated methods of training, undermanned officer corps, ill-equipped soldiers who are already operating with shitty equipment, are all factors to ponder upon when considering this "two front" war. Not to mention, there is also the civilian side which has to be mobilized and ready for such an event. Note, these are the same people who got completely befuddled by 10 pakis who basically ran their entire city for 5 days. Personally, I don't think India could even handle a single front war, for example against China. It would just be a matter of time until Delhi got ran over by zipperheads.
[/quote]
The fallacy here is that terrorist attacks are a very different situation from conventional war....indeed police of any kind would only be fit for defending static targets. anti-maoist actions and actions against the types in the mumbai attacks are a different ballgame. even there, it was 2 NSG to 9 terrorists.
The pakis would not be able to match us in a conventional war that prolongs. Even in kargil, with all the advantages the had, they ended up losing once the Indian army got going. Even then, according to V P Malik, there were attempts by China to capture DBO (24 attempts repulsed). Also, ther are nukes- whatever little is there is not meant for doing pooja. unless one unnecssarily paralyses one's mind by a japa that goes along the lines of
"our forces are useless, the pakis/chinis are unbeateable"
success in an offensive, especially across mountains, requires not just sizeable advantage, but overwhelming advantage. While following twitter, I saw somebody ask Lt. Gen. H. S. Panag what would be the outcome of a two front situation. His reply was "we gain some territory against pak, hold against china". He was asked how come, when he himself says china is far ahead of us in modernization. His answer was that terrain makes it impossible for China to press these advantages. In TSP's case, they still do not have the same conventional capabilities.
Now Gen. Panag is himself somebody who is completely dissatisfied with the state of affairs re: modernization. So, it is unlikely he is indulging in bravado.
IMHO the biggest danger is strategic panic by the civilian population that goes along the lines of
"our forces are useless, the pakis/chinis are unbeateable"
This is reinforced by the media and the way they cover naxal activity/ terrorist activity. Either the civ. popln. must undergo strategic education till a basic level of strategic literacy is achieved / the press/media must be made to fall in line with the establishment. In any case, an emergency promulgated in a war situation will help bring the media/etc into line.
In short, a defensive capability in a 2-frnt situation certainly exists, unless CIVILIAN leads to avoidable bungling- like not using the air-force in fear of escalation, etc. Terrorist attacks/ naxal activities are meant to create precisely the conditions for civilian panic- in the old days, the absence of a free media prevented loss of cv. morale. How many people know mizo insurgents in 1966 overran aizawl ? That we had to bomb them with the airforce to bring things to a state where negotiations happened ? That in 1969-70-71 naxals in w. bengal were on a "China's chairman is our chairman" rampage ? In spite of state setbacks then, in spite of not being optimally equipped then (TSP was better equipped in 1965 and 1971) we still won. How would things have been then with today's media amplifying and publicizing anti-national "achievements" ?
Concluding points: Just the presence of a leader like Narendra Modi in the PM's chair will all other factors exactly as they are at present would lessen the chances of having to actually encounter a two frnt situation drastically. In fact, the image that secularists have tried to build of NaMo being a mass murderer would make TSP/China all the more wary: who can guarantee that such a man may not go for a first strike in the event of a two front situation, NFU notwithstanding ?
Unfortunately, pacifist leaders only lead to more violence, even if the scores are level in the end: think of Punjab during 1946-47.
Finally, we are very very far away from achieving offensive capability to dismantle TSP as a state once and for all.....
I think we need to look at TSP supported terrorism from theory of warfare aspects and see what we can make out of it.
As if on cue this news report.
[url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-to-induct-offensive-corps-along-China-border/articleshow/6117418.cms"]Army to induct 'offensive' corps along China border[/url]
TNN, Jul 2, 2010, 04.22am IST
What targets in PRC should be at risk of Indian destruction to assure PRC will stand down? List cities, infrastructure and military bases and formations.
For cities and vital infrastructure
- 3 Gorge Dam(s) (will destroy its economy apart from population damage)
- Beijing
- Shanghai
Targets should also include
- huge undustrial clustures in coastal area
- ports
- blockade of trade routes and energy supply routes.
I am very much sure, our appointed PM will display his UN pagari and will do Nehru in front of West.
[quote name='Pandyan' date='01 July 2010 - 02:00 AM' timestamp='1277977927' post='107245']
What is this two-front war? Against whom?
The losers cant even tackle domestic war with commies. Like 100 police die every two weeks in commie attacks. Makes me believe China could just walk in and take Delhi if they wanted to. I'm pretty sure they could totally crush Indian army.
[/quote]
Pandyan-despite the fact that the current Indian firepower on the Chinese border is approximately less than 20% of what it should be, the Chinese won't have a free and unmolested drive to Delhi. Depending on which sector they chose to attack, the PLA might very well get a bloody nose.
[quote name='Mudy' date='03 July 2010 - 11:50 AM' timestamp='1278186144' post='107280']
I am very much sure, our appointed PM will display his UN pagari and will do Nehru in front of West.
[/quote]
What else can one expect from a glorified houseboy?
[quote name='Arun_S' date='02 July 2010 - 07:28 PM' timestamp='1278127236' post='107274']
For cities and vital infrastructure
- 3 Gorge Dam(s) (will destroy its economy apart from population damage)
- Beijing
- Shanghai
[/quote]
You'll need something more than a pop-gun 20 KT to take down 3G. It is stressed/designed to take a 20 KT hit!
[quote name='ramana' date='30 June 2010 - 08:46 PM' timestamp='1277959088' post='107242']
A few indicators are:
1) the failure of P Chidambaram's trip to TSP
2)US dismissal of McChrystal which puts pressure on US Amin to how a win in trade-off
3)Causing reliance on TSP to deliver good Taliban to provide a honorable exit for US
4) PRC TSP nuke deal is another sop
5)Will cause TSP to overreach.
TSP always over reaches when it thinks it has the US on its side.
So expect a 'bold' attack.
The good think is AKA already told the forces to prepare for two front war.
[/quote]
Ramana,
I wonder whether the Indian NSA's visit to Beijing is yet another sign of the imminence of a two front war. If TSP can manage to get the "good Taliban" into power, one may expect unbridled Pakjabi bravado. In that case, the NA returns to the mountains, and a TSP attack on India with Chinese support is a distinct possibility. Shouldn't the Indians re-appraise their aid to the Karzai regime, and transfer it to traditional allies like the NA? India might also need Iran to apply pressure on TSP along the Balochistan front.
I agree that Pak bravado spills over into attack on India whenever they get uncle's support. Lets see how Af-Pak pans out.
Assuming that an India-China scarp will occur in T-120 days, what is the Indian ORBAT on the Chinese border, and what are the comparable Chinese strengths? One needs to have a ball park estimate of the competing ORBAT's in terms of infantry divisions, mountain divisions, air power, artillery, cruise missiles, mechanized units, etc. Then it would be required to factor in the sector-wise terrain and assess as to whether the much vaunted "Chinese superiority" is suited to the terrain of a specific sector and which sectors terrain nullifies this superiority.
This will provide some estimates as to where along the 5000 Km border the Indians would like the Chinese to fight. The final step, and the most difficult, would be to figure out options as to how the Indians can make the Chinese fight on a terrain which is disadvantageous to them (the Chinese). Any thoughts????
07-06-2010, 11:01 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-06-2010, 11:08 PM by ramana.)
[quote]
Rohitvats wrote:
[quote="ramana"][quote="rohitvats"]In past 24 months, Indian Army has gone up by 6 Mountain Divisions and one additional Corps HQ - and a Mountain Strike Corps at that. I hope we don't go around yelling week kneed and lilly livered approach of GOI any more....
Are they ground truths or paper formations?
.....
ramana garu, the 2 Mountain Divisions(MD) for NE are already up and running. The AOR between 4 and 3 Corps has been rationalized with some give and take of divisions. Next in line are the 2 MDs for Northern Command. This Mountain Strike Corps is a new announcement - so will take some time to shape up. But important thing - report from ground says that lot of new raisings for various arms and services has been okayed. And some has already taken place. All in all, genuine expansion in the strength of IA.
[/quote]
and
[quote]
"rajrang" Wrote:
For decades India had "10 mountain divisions" - even thought only 9 were called mountain divisions. Finally two years ago there was a decision to raise 2 additional divisions to defend AP. That made it 12. Now there is this news about raising a mountain strike corps with 2 divisions. That would make it 14. Even if you argue that the 2 new brigades (Ladakh, Uttarcnhal) plus I recall a new artillery brigade for the NE, is numerically equal to 1 more division, the total is 15 divisions. Did I get my math correct? How do you get 16? Also note that the new strike corps has not yet been approved. Thanks.
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To begin with, it does not matter if the formation is Mountain Division (MDs) or Infantry Division - as long as it is equipped to be able to operate in its AOR (Area of Responsibility). After the move of 8th Mountain Division to the Valley, we have had 8 Divisions dedicated for the Chinese front - not counting the Reserves (which would take it to 10).
Cut to present - 2 new MDs have been raised in NE and already operationalized. Add to it the two MDs okayed for Northern Sector. Plus, the latest report of new Corps HQ (Mountain Strike Corps) with 2 more Mountain Divisions under it - total of 6 new raisings; 2 done and 4 more to go. Considering the 2 new MD already raised in NE, we 'now' have 10 divisions with Corps dedicated to chinese front.
[/quote]
and
From Orbat:
[quote]
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India's buildup against China Reader Avik Bhattacharyya asks us to clarify the situation regarding how many divisions have been/are being/will be raised.
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Two divisions have been raised, under Eastern Command. The Government is said to have approved the raising of two more, which will go to Northern Command. A couple of independent brigades have been requested and we assume permission will be given en passant, so as to speak.
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Now, Mandeep Bajwa explained to us the other day that the Army has asked for a minimum of seven new divisions ASAP with another four after that, so that we are talking of eleven new divisions at some point in the mid-2010s. Mandeep believes the seven can be taken as given, and the additional four will also be approved in due time as unlike in the past, today money is not a problem. India's official defense expenditure is just 2% of its GDP so it has room to spend more.
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Avik asks if seven divisions would not represent the greatest post-1945 build up by a democratic country. In 1963-68 India raised sixteen new divisions, so seven divisions over 5-6 years is not that much.
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Avik also asks what has happened to the modernization of the Pakistan-front forces. We are trying to frame the answer as politely as possible, without calling the Government of India and senior defense staff morons, idiots, cretins, and retards. With those words ruled out, all we can say is that everyone has transferred their attention to the new toy, the China buildup, and no one has time for the old toy, the modernization of the Pakistan-front forces. For eleven years the Government has been going on and on about Cold Start without doing a darn thing to make Cold Start a reality. And it doesn't require much to make it a reality, just a simple expansion of mechanization.
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The new mantra is "two-front war". Well, sorry about that, the Indian Army has since 1963 been sized for exactly that, a two-front war. Readers can take it on the Editor's words alone: he's studied Indian defense policy for 40 years, and he can assure readers the last time anyone knew what they were doing was the 1971 War - and two-thirds of the objectives even then were abandoned because India was - still is - ruled by the Yellow Boxer Brigade - Boxer as in boxer shorts, the rest we leave to your imagination.
[/quote]
We should also discuss, how and what yellow/pink boxer will do ?
e.g. feed media with stories and call for help from west.
UN involvement etc.
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