Two front war on the cards

[Guest]

Meanwhile can we know more about the 2/3rd objectives that were abandoned in 71? Militarily apart from the defense development and equipping the forces, there is not much news around. At least jingos can wet dream for a while.



How's the artillery modernization going on? The few rewiews on the net by videshis which are purely based on individual statistics of various artillery systems in possession of Indian and Paksitan say that the pakistanis are favourites to win artillery battles. Whatever the ground reality, how can the MOD allow such a situation where the Indian armed forces be considered at an equal level or god forbid even seem to be inferior to the pakis? Procurement/indeginous production and deployment should be such as to clearly demonstrate military superiority.



Unless this whole thing is a chankian plot to fool the enemy about the weakness of the cowardly yindoos to instill a false sense of bravardo in them and get them involved in a misadventure. But based on orbat figures, even this scenario can be safely put to rest. India's military modernization is truly haphazard! The accent seems to be on procuring multibillion dollar imported force multipliers while the military basics such as artillery are given a short shrift.



I can bet that if a border skirmish occurs say even two years from now, MOD will indulge in panic purchases (and earn ghoos) on the inflated prices, while they'll be sitting on their asses now.

[sai_k]

I am trying to visualize the command and control structure in addition to logistics on a supposed two or multi-front war. Any expert opinion here?



let us assume the context of NBC use by at least two enemies.

[ramana]

Gagan, The bit about 2/3 objectives being abandoned is from Orbat Editor. Maybe there is thread on that there.



However Maj Gen Sukhwant Sinh in his three vol book "India and its wars since Independence" vol I has a very good description of what the pre war palns were since he was in the DGMO and had personally reviewed them with the frontline commanders on both fronts. Try to get hold of the books. And compare to what was actually achieved we can get an idea.



To be fair there was this concern in India that total destruction of TSP war machine in the West was off limts as it would provoke certain US response.

[Guest]

I cannot understand this thread (nor a sister thread in another forum). Some Whys...



1) WHY would it be now?

2) WHY are we talking about it now, this issue was always there, no?

[ramana]

Its two years since the meltdown and no hopes of recovery. Time for Chipanda to assert itself.

[ramana]

And if it is so obvious to us what moves are being made by others who could be impacted?

[Guest]

[quote name='ramana' date='15 July 2010 - 01:29 PM' timestamp='1279218071' post='107476']

Its two years since the meltdown and no hopes of recovery. Time for Chipanda to assert itself.

[/quote]

If that was a reply to my question; then how does war help it assert itself? If the signs coming from different corners are correct, then all is not well with China's economy. It is not rabid enough to launch war like Pakistan without consideration to what happens to its population. China is not without fault-lines that would be ideal in a large war, no?

[acharya]

Historian warns of sudden collapse of American ‘empire’

by Brent Gardner-Smith, Aspen Daily News Staff Writer

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/141349

Harvard professor and prolific author Niall Ferguson opened the 2010 Aspen Ideas Festival Monday with a stark warning about the increasing prospect of the American “empire” suddenly collapsing due to the country’s rising debt level.



“I think this is a problem that is going to go live really soon,” Ferguson said. “In that sense, I mean within the next two years. Because the whole thing, fiscally and other ways, is very near the edge of chaos. And we’ve seen already in Greece what happens when the bond market loses faith in your fiscal policy.”



Ferguson said empires — such as the former Soviet Union and the Roman empire — can collapse quite quickly and the tipping point is often when the cost of servicing an empire’s debt is larger than the cost of its defense budget.



“That has not been the case I think at any point in U.S. history,” Ferguson said. “It will be the case in the next five years.”



Ferguson was conscious of opening the Ideas Festival on such a stark note.



“Walter Isaacson, the leader of this great institution said, ‘Don’t be too dark!,’” Ferguson said.



The affable British scholar tried to keep it light. He used a stage whisper to tell the Aspen Institute audience, “I know you’re not comfortable with the word ‘empire,’ especially just after the Fourth of July, but you are the Redcoats now.”



He said the U.S. is now deeply in the red as a country because of a combination of the Great Recession, the resulting federal stimulus and financial bailout programs, two wars, the Bush tax cuts, and a growth in social entitlement programs.



And economic debt can lead to a sudden loss of military power and global respect, Ferguson said.



“By combating our crisis of private debt with an extraordinary expansion of public debt, we inevitably are going to reduce the resources available for national security in the years ahead,” Ferguson said. “Because as a debt grows, so the interest payments you have to make on it grow, even if interest rates stay low. And on current projections, the federal debt is going to be absorbing around 20 percent — a fifth of all the taxes you pay — within just a few years.



Harvard professor and author Niall Ferguson speaks about the financial crisis during an opening session of the Aspen Ideas Festival on Monday afternoon.



“The item of discretionary federal expenditure most likely to be squeezed is of course defense. And there are lots of historic precedents for that,” said Ferguson, who is the author of “Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power.”

[size="6"]

Ferguson said the financial crisis that started in 2007 has “has accelerated a fundamental shift in the balance of power,” with the U.S. shedding power and China absorbing it.



“I’ve just come back from China — a two-week trip there — and the thing I heard most often was, ‘You can’t lecture us about the superiority of your system anymore. We don’t need to learn anything from you about financial institutions and forget about democracy. We see where it has got you.’”[/size]



David Gergen of CNN, who moderated the discussion, which also included billionaire Mortimer Zuckerman, asked Ferguson whether it made a difference if the U.S. declined as a world power.



“Having grown up in a declining empire, I do not recommend it,” Ferguson said. “It’s not a lot of fun, actually, decline. To be more serious, a world in which the United States is no longer predominate is not likely to be a better world, actually.”



In what he called his “light moment,” Ferguson said, “I think there is a way out for the United States. I don’t think its over. But it all hinges on whether you can re-energize the real mainsprings of American power. And those two things are technological innovation and entrepreneurship.



“Those are the things that made the United States the greatest economy in the world and the critical question is, ‘Are we going to get it right?’ Can we revive those things in such a way that in the end we grow our way out of this hole the way the United States grew its way out of the 1970s and of course out of the 1930s?”



The Aspen Ideas Festival continues through July 11 at the Aspen Institute. Such notables as U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates, U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, and former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan are scheduled to appear.



A number of events are open to the public, but tickets were going fast on Monday through the website Aspen Show Tickets. Aspen Public Radio also plans on broadcasting a number of festival events live, including on Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. and at 1 and 5 p.m.

bgs@aspendailynews.com

[sai_k]

A psychological aspect to having a super power as an ally would make chipanda think twice for adventures.. OTOH, if we don't get them on economical front, then we would fail with the wars [we need to target economic strong points as well w.r.t chipanda].



We can't think only mil capabilities against the chips.

[ravicv]

[quote name='Swamy G' date='15 July 2010 - 03:04 PM' timestamp='1279234598' post='107482']

If that was a reply to my question; then how does war help it assert itself? If the signs coming from different corners are correct, then all is not well with China's economy. It is not rabid enough to launch war like Pakistan without consideration to what happens to its population. China is not without fault-lines that would be ideal in a large war, no?

[/quote]



Identifying fault lines and exploiting them are two different issues. Expecting ren&-b&ys like MMS, SMK,... to exploit these fault lines in a military conflict is unrealistic.

[ravicv]

[quote name='sai_k' date='17 July 2010 - 02:19 PM' timestamp='1279404682' post='107505']

A psychological aspect to having a super power as an ally would make chipanda think twice for adventures.. OTOH, if we don't get them on economical front, then we would fail with the wars [we need to target economic strong points as well w.r.t chipanda].



We can't think only mil capabilities against the chips.

[/quote]



If military capabilities aren't the only factor, then do you suggest that the Indians send a Bharatnatyam or Kathak troupe to ward off military threats from the PRC? Further, what makes you think your "hypothetical" superpower friend will ally itself with India against the PRC? How do you percieve the forms this so-called "alliance" could/should acquire? How in your opinion would this hypothetical superpower view such an Indian request? What would be the long term ramifications to India as a result of this "alliance"? Would this "aliance" carry with it baggage which is as totally unacceptable to the Indians in the medium-long term?

[ramana]

Another data point:



Looks like this item was missed.



Nightwatch, 26 July 2010

India: For the record. The Indian Finance Ministry on 26 July approved a restructuring plan for the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), the Press Trust of India reported. Home Affairs Minister P. Chidambaram said the modernization plan, which was proposed by the Home Ministry in 2009, gives the ITBP 15 new battalions, three recruit training centers, a counterinsurgency and jungle warfare school, a high-altitude medical training center and additional materiel. The plan also allows ITBP to recruit additional support staff, ITBP chief R. K. Bhatia said. ITBP plans to conduct more short-range patrols along the borders, unnamed sources said.





Comment: The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) is a paramilitary force established on 24 October 1962 for providing security along India's border with Chinese-occupied Tibet. It has more than 60,000 policemen in 55 battalions which areresponsible for 2,115 kilometers of border in the Himalayas. The expansion should take it to about 75,000 personnel, about 10,000 fewer than the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB), which guards the mountain borders with Nepal and Bhutan. These two are the largest police forces, specializing in mountain police and combat duties.



The ITBP and the SSB are components of the more than half-million strong Central Paramilitary Forces which would come directly under the command of the Indian Armed Forces in wartime.



From time to time, Indian media will report piecemeal about upgrades to various forces along the China border. There are three kinds: Indian armed forces, Central Police Organizations and Central Paramilitary Forces, of which the ITBP is one of the most elite units.



The significance of today's report is that it reinforces that all forces along the China border from Kashmir to Burma are being upgraded. Upgrades to Indian Army units were featured items in Indian reporting last summer.



NightWatch uses as a predictive hypothesis that India expects to confront China in less than two decades. In some scenarios, this confrontation is part of a two front war with Pakistan, according to Indian strategists. Several years ago the Singh government ordered the start of long term preparations for a showdown.

[ravicv]

[quote name='ramana' date='27 July 2010 - 12:04 PM' timestamp='1280260613' post='107648']

Another data point:



Looks like this item was missed.



Nightwatch, 26 July 2010

[/quote]



This could be a potent force IFF the ITBP was adequately armed with MANPADS and light artillery.

[Guest]

Friday, I was listening to radio discussion on China's recent ante towards India and South China Sea.

According to experts, first time Chinese Generals are independently speaking/releasing statements, they have started exerting power. Communist party is too busy making money and this wild rush towards money had left Chinese Army generals high and dry. Now they are looking for both money and power. India should watch them because Generals are very close to be call as rogue and may try some adventurous steps towards India and South China sea Nations. Suddenly, these Generals had started making claims on international waters.

[sai_k]

Pl. Note discussions from missile thread, that there is an intentional projection of A5 designed to carry conventional warheads onlee! May be that is hitting hard on chip generals' hemorrhoids. Recently Obama made sore sounds when he losing a big economic battle at home ground, and the chips have a don't care attitude sitting strong on the US treasury bonds.



Have to give them their dues.. they are playing by their policies at best. Our implementation lacks details and executions are entirely baboo-fected. Something has to be done from our minds to the real executors of our agenda.

[Arun_S]

WTF, IAF's sanctioned strength is already 45 Squadrons, never mind the depletion due to Mig-21 obsolescence, where it is down by 12 squadrons ( ~ 200 air crafts).







[url="http://www.deccanherald.com/content/136779/iaf-seeks-government-sanction-more.html"]IAF seeks Government sanction for more fighter aircraft squadrons Bangalore, Feb 11 (PTI)[/url]

Preparing itself for a two-front war scenario, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has sent a proposal to the Defence Ministry to increase its sanctioned fighter aircraft strength from 39.5 to 45 squadrons.



"We have proposed to increase our squadron strength from 39.5 to 45 squadrons and it is under consideration of the Defence Ministry," IAF sources told PTI here.



The current squadron strength of the force is 33. A squadron comprises around 18 to 20 aircraft.In view of increasing Chinese military deployments along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the IAF has been strengthening its presence in the northeastern sector and has plans of deploying four squadrons of the air superiority Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft there by 2015.



Asked about the time-frame in which the IAF was looking to achieve these numbers, they said the future acquisitions would depend on the sanctions accorded to the service by the Government.



Under its modernisation plans, air bases on the western front are also being equipped with modern airfield infrastructure and new fighter planes.



The IAF has plans of inducting more than 350 fighter jet aircraft by the end of this decade which includes the 126 multi-role combat planes (M-MRCA), over 160 new Su-30MKIs and over 140 indigenously-built Light Combat Aircraft (LCA).



The contract for the new Su-30s has already been signed and the orders for 126 M-MRCA are expected to be placed by the end of September this year.



Six aircraft including Russian MiG-35, American F-16 and F/A-18, Swedish Gripen, European Eurofighter and French Rafale are in the race for the M-MRCA contract, which is expected to cost USD 11 billion.



The IAF is also phasing out its old Russian-origin fleet of MiG aircraft -- the 21, 23 and 27 series. The oldest MiG-21 Type-77 is likely to be decommissioned by the end of next year.

[gangajal1]

There is an extremely small possibility of a 2-front war. The conventional balance between India and Pakistan is tilted too heavily towards India to make a 1965 or 1971 India-Pakistan war highly unlikely. The difficult terrain separating Tibet and India makes a large scale India-China war unlikely except in the Ladakh region. There might be small clashes. In 1962 China was allowed to build a road from the Namka Chu river valley to Tawang for 3-weeks without a single shot fired by either the Indian Army or the Air Force. In fact, the Air Force was not even used. In 1962 Chinese forces which came up to Bomdila would have had serious supply shortages if India had continued to fight during the winter months when the Himalayan passes would have been snow bound. The 1962 war was lost by India and not won by the Chinese. Such a thing would not happen again. Even China understands that 1962 would not be repeated. The current Indian build up would further reduce any possibility of a 2-front war.

[HareKrishna]

[quote name='qubit' date='20 July 2010 - 03:11 AM' timestamp='1279575205' post='107533']

If military capabilities aren't the only factor, then do you suggest that the Indians send a Bharatnatyam or Kathak troupe to ward off military threats from the PRC? Further, what makes you think your "hypothetical" superpower friend will ally itself with India against the PRC? How do you percieve the forms this so-called "alliance" could/should acquire? How in your opinion would this hypothetical superpower view such an Indian request? What would be the long term ramifications to India as a result of this "alliance"? Would this "aliance" carry with it baggage which is as totally unacceptable to the Indians in the medium-long term?

[/quote]

If indians are a kind of people that work best only in desperate strategic conditions,then an alliance whit a superpower will make the government to sleep(military speaking).Its better to rely on your own strengths then live whit (false) hope that someone else will make the fight for you.

[Bharat_2009]

Two front war is very much a possibility !!



It does not mean that China and Pakistan are going to hold hands together and attack India overnight.



Pakistan will be used as a cannon fodder by China. Everybody knows this.



It doesn't take much time for China to instigate suicidal rabid dogs (Pakistan)



We all know that India can crush Pakistan in a conventional war, but stupid mind immediately goes for nuclear option.



If Pakistan targets India with its nukes, India will not only retaliate against Pakistan but also China with nukes. I hope it is in the nuclear doctrine of India.



India will start a two front war not China or Pakistan.



China may not bother about India now in 2011 but things are going to change drastically when India pulls a sustained growth of 8 to 9% for another 5 to 10 yrs and surpasses all those tiny European countries and become the 3rd largest economy next to China. At that point, China would have a real competitor both economically and militarily.



China may instigate its rabid dogs on leash (Pakistan) when India becomes the 3rd largest economy in terms of GDP nominal. By then, we can assume that the US would have already tilted towards India to bring down China ( of course not by force but by investing more in India than China)





I strongly feel that the US still holds the key as far as economic prosperity in this region is concerned.



US has a very strong Research and development foundation which neither China nor India has, but democracy advantage is on Indian side. US wants to invest more in India but the damn politicians (due to poor management skills) delay the development of infrastructure. 50,000 crores sanctioned for roads. Money is missing and the roads are also missing. This is our India, even though we have very high hopes about our great nation.



and by the way, India's economy grows, regardless of our politicians. Thanks to hard working people of India.

[HareKrishna]

Maybe an indian Shanghai will be needed.A place whit a huge port at ocean,free of taxes and no rules,all destined only for export.

If raw materials came from overseas then no roads will be needed.