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Indian Missile News And Discussion
[quote name='gangajal1' date='23 November 2010 - 07:47 AM' timestamp='1290478162' post='109387']

What is puzzling about the K-series missiles is their payload. Has India developed warheads

for submarine launch? The 1998 tests only involved land based warheads. So what will India's

submarines launch?

[/quote]



Precisely a trillion dollar question. The 1998 tested design are not suitable for submarine based deployment due to unacceptably high radiation does to crew in its close proximity.



Some country(s) think India will do next round of nuclear test in next 2 years; particularity likely if ATV will have any teeth that mean anything to any adversary.
  Reply
[quote name='Arun_S' date='22 November 2010 - 10:48 PM' timestamp='1290487240' post='109391']

Precisely a trillion dollar question. The 1998 tested design are not suitable for submarine based deployment due to unacceptably high radiation does to crew in its close proximity.



Some country(s) think India will do next round of nuclear test in next 2 years; particularity likely if ATV will have any teeth that mean anything to any adversary.

[/quote]



Even with MMS/Maino in power ? This is what I find hard to believe.
  Reply
[quote name='Kritavarma' date='23 November 2010 - 02:05 PM' timestamp='1290500869' post='109393']

Even with MMS/Maino in power ? This is what I find hard to believe.

[/quote]



I think, regardless of who is in power, it will be a big mistake to test again, since so much is at stake for India at international level (Permanent Security Council Seat, Foreign direct investments, Nuclear deal). Heavy sanctions could be slapped on India again by the US and it could affect millions in terms of job opportunities. Indian politicians wouldn't make a move, until Pakistan drops a nuke on us (Indian soldiers/People). If we are forced into a two front war situation because of that, then nuke testing may be done with out bothering about international pressure and we got nothing to lose at that point.
  Reply
[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='24 November 2010 - 03:50 AM' timestamp='1290591760' post='109427']

I think, regardless of who is in power, it will be a big mistake to test again, since so much is at stake for India at international level (Permanent Security Council Seat, Foreign direct investments, Nuclear deal). Heavy sanctions could be slapped on India again by the US and it could affect millions in terms of job opportunities. Indian politicians wouldn't make a move, until Pakistan drops a nuke on us (Indian soldiers/People). If we are forced into a two front war situation because of that, then nuke testing may be done with out bothering about international pressure and we got nothing to lose at that point.

[/quote]



what mistake ? the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility. testing has to be done in the next few years to ensure we remain a credible nuk. wpn. state. sanctions are a small and temporary price to pay for this. job opportunities/market will be down for 2-3 yrs at most. if we test at the brink of a 2 frnt sitn, it wll be too little, too late. imagine if ABV thought like you: we would have still been a non-nuke state effectively. testing should be the top national priority till we develop a credible TN wpn. only the scientific fraud RC thinks otherwise. countries that get nukes frm elsewhere are in a different position.



Regarding the losses from testing:



1. Permanent seat: of what use is it if the price to pay is strategic castration ? In any case, for how long can a thermonuclear armed large country be kept out of it if the security council/ UN is to have any teeth whatsoever ?



2. Nuke deal: This is just a device to suffocate the strategic program. The sooner it is abrogated, the better. Even better if it is nullified by our nuclear testing.



3. FDI :yes, halt/slow down for two-three years, like it happened after 1998. Did we collapse ?



The gain of a credible deterrent more than compensates for any losses incurred by testing. We should not become a south korea - thinking every moment about whatit has to lose, and therefore unable to react to grave NoKo provocations.
  Reply
[quote name='Kritavarma' date='24 November 2010 - 06:22 PM' timestamp='1290602674' post='109428']

what mistake ? the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility. testing has to be done in the next few years to ensure we remain a credible nuk. wpn. state. sanctions are a small and temporary price to pay for this. job opportunities/market will be down for 2-3 yrs at most. if we test at the brink of a 2 frnt sitn, it wll be too little, too late. imagine if ABV thought like you: we would have still been a non-nuke state effectively. testing should be the top national priority till we develop a credible TN wpn. only the scientific fraud RC thinks otherwise. countries that get nukes frm elsewhere are in a different position.



Regarding the losses from testing:



1. Permanent seat: of what use is it if the price to pay is strategic castration ? In any case, for how long can a thermonuclear armed large country be kept out of it if the security council/ UN is to have any teeth whatsoever ?



2. Nuke deal: This is just a device to suffocate the strategic program. The sooner it is abrogated, the better. Even better if it is nullified by our nuclear testing.



3. FDI :yes, halt/slow down for two-three years, like it happened after 1998. Did we collapse ?



The gain of a credible deterrent more than compensates for any losses incurred by testing. We should not become a south korea - thinking every moment about whatit has to lose, and therefore unable to react to grave NoKo provocations.

[/quote]





I don't want to derail the missile thread with discussions on economy, but to me, India has to be both an economic power and military power. I don't need to remind any one about the collapse of super military power soviet union. Disregarding PS in UN, Nuke deal, and FDI (spinal cord of India and China's growth) can pull back India compared to China by 30 yrs (India is already behind China, around 15 yrs in terms of economy)



"the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility"



You cannot summarize India's 2 nuclear tests in one line by making a very general statement like our "DDMs"



The main concern was about TN (Thermo-nuclear warhead)



But you cannot write off Fusion boosted fission warheads.



FBF warheads (from Arun's article on Shourya)



1000 kg Vintage FBF warhead with yield of 200 kilotons ( 10 times the effect on Nagasaki)



550 kg FBF warhead with yield of 150 kilotons (yet to be field tested but not so complex as TN warhead)



180 kg FBF warhead with 17 kilotons yield (we can get Hiroshima effect and each missile can smoke 50,000 to 100,000 people in a city)(Not exactly a tiny deterrent)





Missiles



Shourya Hypersonic Missile (under production since early 2009 according to "Missile Success" by TS Subramanian article published on Frontline magazine)



http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2526/s...609400.htm



1900 kg @ 180 FBF warhead (Just 10 missiles can take out at least half a million to 1 million people in a city)



Instead of depending on 1 missile with 200 kilotons TN warhead, how about sending 10 or more missiles for each city in China? Our stable economy can afford mass production of any missile let alone this thin beauty.



Agni III with 3 stages (From Arun's a credible way to deterrent article)



8000 km @ 1500 kg payload ( 8 x 180 kg FBF warheads) with 140 kilotons yield. 8 MIRVs equivalent to 8 missiles. China can be targeted anywhere from India.



How about launching 10 missiles instead of one? There you go, you got 1.4 megatons effect on a single city.( It is better than depending on one missile)



Yes, we need bigger class nuclear submarines in large numbers (again India can afford, if a strong economy can be sustained)



(You cannot whine about cost,since you are even ready to nuke test without thinking about consequences to economy)



All those talk about minimum deterrence is for western non-proliferation people. India is stronger and its policy makers are smarter than you think. I am sure DDMs know that too but they have their own business to worry about.





I am for TN re-testing too but not at the cost of soaring economy which can lift, millions of Indian people out of poverty if 9% growth rate can be sustained



Patience. Time will come. Even a prolonged conventional war with Pakistan and China would give us a reason to re-test TN. We need a strong reason to test.



India is also moving towards Hypersonic Boost Glide Missiles which can play a role in conventional warfare too.



Shourya



Agni II (AT)



K15 and K4 Hypersonic missiles (who knows, K4s and K15s with conventional warheads might even arm our nuclear attack subs (SSNs)



US already did that with their sub-sonic cruise missiles (Tomahawk or whatever it is called) and of course Prompt Global Strike Program is still out there.



Don't forget that Israel is also called a nuclear power. Did they ever conduct a nuclear test? (Well, you can say that the US tested for Israel but there is no proof, just like Chinks tested for porkis)
  Reply
[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='24 November 2010 - 08:21 PM' timestamp='1290651219' post='109447']

I don't want to derail the missile thread with discussions on economy, but to me, India has to be both an economic power and military power. I don't need to remind any one about the collapse of super military power soviet union. Disregarding PS in UN, Nuke deal, and FDI (spinal cord of India and China's growth) can pull back India compared to China by 30 yrs (India is already behind China, around 15 yrs in terms of economy)



"the cost of not testing is a puny deterretnt that has no credibility"



You cannot summarize India's 2 nuclear tests in one line by making a very general statement like our "DDMs"



The main concern was about TN (Thermo-nuclear warhead)



But you cannot write off Fusion boosted fission warheads.



FBF warheads (from Arun's article on Shourya)



1000 kg Vintage FBF warhead with yield of 200 kilotons ( 10 times the effect on Nagasaki)



550 kg FBF warhead with yield of 150 kilotons (yet to be field tested but not so complex as TN warhead)



180 kg FBF warhead with 17 kilotons yield (we can get Hiroshima effect and each missile can smoke 50,000 to 100,000 people in a city)(Not exactly a tiny deterrent)





Missiles



Shourya Hypersonic Missile (under production since early 2009 according to "Missile Success" by TS Subramanian article published on Frontline magazine)



http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2526/s...609400.htm



1900 kg @ 180 FBF warhead (Just 10 missiles can take out at least half a million to 1 million people in a city)



Instead of depending on 1 missile with 200 kilotons TN warhead, how about sending 10 or more missiles for each city in China? Our stable economy can afford mass production of any missile let alone this thin beauty.



Agni III with 3 stages (From Arun's a credible way to deterrent article)



8000 km @ 1500 kg payload ( 8 x 180 kg FBF warheads) with 140 kilotons yield. 8 MIRVs equivalent to 8 missiles. China can be targeted anywhere from India.



How about launching 10 missiles instead of one? There you go, you got 1.4 megatons effect on a single city.( It is better than depending on one missile)



Yes, we need bigger class nuclear submarines in large numbers (again India can afford, if a strong economy can be sustained)



(You cannot whine about cost,since you are even ready to nuke test without thinking about consequences to economy)



All those talk about minimum deterrence is for western non-proliferation people. India is stronger and its policy makers are smarter than you think. I am sure DDMs know that too but they have their own business to worry about.





I am for TN re-testing too but not at the cost of soaring economy which can lift, millions of Indian people out of poverty if 9% growth rate can be sustained



Patience. Time will come. Even a prolonged conventional war with Pakistan and China would give us a reason to re-test TN. We need a strong reason to test.



India is also moving towards Hypersonic Boost Glide Missiles which can play a role in conventional warfare too.



Shourya



Agni II (AT)



K15 and K4 Hypersonic missiles (who knows, K4s and K15s with conventional warheads might even arm our nuclear attack subs (SSNs)



US already did that with their sub-sonic cruise missiles (Tomahawk or whatever it is called) and of course Prompt Global Strike Program is still out there.



Don't forget that Israel is also called a nuclear power. Did they ever conduct a nuclear test? (Well, you can say that the US tested for Israel but there is no proof, just like Chinks tested for porkis)

[/quote]



Hiroshima size weapons deter countries that value civilian life. Not TSP/Chn.



That the TN needs retesting is confirmed by no les than Dr. Santhanam.



The FBF, etc at the very least require too much fissie material per device. Here, cost is not the concern. Time is. When even TSP is going ahead with a nuke buildup, we need a massive nuke buildup. FBF designs prevent that since our fissile availability is low.



If we cling to 9% growth, we will never test until it is too late citing this very reason. A two front war with TSP/Chn is a sure defeat situation conventionally. Only a credible nuke deterrent will prevent this from occurring in the first place. This requires TN testing asap. Because we need a deployed TN arsenal within the nextfew years to avoid a two front TSP/CHn attack. Waiting for justification is criminal in this matter.



I say test now, or in the nextcouple of years. 9% growth will be back 3-4 yrs later, backed by a credible nuke deterrent. The alternative would be to face massive conventional humiliation by TSP+Chn, and thengo and cling to the USA for security (probably after disarming) to keep 9% growth. Just like SoKo/Japan. This we must avoid at all costs.
  Reply
India test fires Agni I.



Is it really Agni I?





http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...00692.html
  Reply
looks like Agni I



http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/nu...red/177924
  Reply
My guess:-





Land Based



Agni 1 – Single Warhead- Range 1000 to 1500km

Agni 2 – Single Warhead- Range 3000 to 3500km

Agni 2+ – Single Warhead- Range 5000 to 6000km

Agni 3 – Single Warhead- Range 5000 to 8000km

Agni 5 – Multiple MIRV- Range 6000 to 8000km





Submarine based



k-15 – Single Warhead- Range 1000 to 2500km

K-4 (1.3m dia?)- Single Warhead- Range 3000 to 3500km

K-4 (1-8 t 2 m dia?)- MIRV- Range 3000 to 5000km
  Reply
[quote name='Raj Malhotra' date='26 November 2010 - 11:34 AM' timestamp='1290750971' post='109468']

My guess:-





Land Based



Agni 1 – Single Warhead- Range 1000 to 1500km

Agni 2 – Single Warhead- Range 3000 to 3500km

Agni 2+ – Single Warhead- Range 5000 to 6000km

Agni 3 – Single Warhead- Range 5000 to 8000km

Agni 5 – Multiple MIRV- Range 6000 to 8000km





Submarine based



k-15 – Single Warhead- Range 1000 to 2500km

K-4 (1.3m dia?)- Single Warhead- Range 3000 to 3500km

K-4 (1-8 t 2 m dia?)- MIRV- Range 3000 to 5000km

[/quote]





we got more !!!



1. Prithvi I, II, III



2. Nirbhay - Long Range Subsonic Cruise Missile (Turbofan engine) (Test by 2012)



3. LRCM - Long Range Supersonic Cruise Missile (Ramjet engine) (Test by 2014)



4. BrahMos II - Hypersonic Cruise Missile (Scram Jet Engine) (Test by 2015)



5. HSDTV - Long Range Hypersonic Vehicle (Scram Jet Engine) (Test by 2020??)



Arunji also mentioned about



6. Shourya II with Scramjet Engine. Let all hell break loose !!



and above all, please don't forget about



7. Agni IV (Agni III or V with 4 stages)- the hidden one, the true ICBM !!
  Reply
Then we should complete it:- <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='Wink' />





Astra 1 & 2, KS-172



LRSAM/MRSAM 1, 2 & 3



Nag, Hellina, Manpad Nag



Pinaka 1 & 2



Sudershan PGM & Sudershan with Rocket booster



ARM(?)



Nirbhay 1 & 2



Torpedoes Light and Heavy



Akash 1 & 2
  Reply
Agni II (AT) Hypersonic Boost Glide Missile launch before December 10th 2010.





http://www.hindu.com/2010/11/27/stories/...200100.htm





Range



4500 km @ 1500 kg (Arun's article)



>6000 km @ lower payload





K4 - Hypersonic Boost Glide Missile - Naval version of Agni II (AT)



Range



>3500 km (as per India today article)
  Reply
Just some nitpicks:



[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='25 November 2010 - 07:51 AM' timestamp='1290651219' post='109447']

550 kg FBF warhead with yield of 150 kilotons (yet to be field tested but not so complex as TN warhead)[/quote]

The problem with this type is how much wg-Pu India has to make these types of warhead in respectable qty?



Quote:1900 kg @ 180 FBF warhead (Just 10 missiles can take out at least half a million to 1 million people in a city)



Instead of depending on 1 missile with 200 kilotons TN warhead, how about sending 10 or more missiles for each city in China? Our stable economy can afford mass production of any missile let alone this thin beauty.

This IMHO is the main problem for India.



The 10 x cost to build and maintain a missile force, boomer submarine force and other weapons platform, does not give India advantage of low cost to maintain a credible minimum deterrence, instead the stockpile and the # of weapons (weapon = warhead + delivery platform) required in view of Indian high-weight-to-yield-ratio warheads is so high that :

  1. India today does not 1X weapons required for CMD, what to speak of mythical 10x to compensate for lack of TN.
  2. the 10 X is plainly unaffordable or just blase impracticable. Imagine having 50 nuclear powered submarines, while the ground reality is that India has none today and next year it wll have one and 2 years later will have two (when INS Arihant joins).
Quote:Agni III with 3 stages (From Arun's a credible way to deterrent article)



8000 km @ 1500 kg payload ( 8 x 180 kg FBF warheads) with 140 kilotons yield. 8 MIRVs equivalent to 8 missiles. China can be targeted anywhere from India.



How about launching 10 missiles instead of one? There you go, you got 1.4 megatons effect on a single city.( It is better than depending on one missile)

the weakness of this argument is "[size="3"][color="#800080"]You cant give, what you do not have[/color][/size]" something I learned when I visited the[size="2"] Reunification Palace at Ho Chi Min city.[/size]



[color="#0000ff"]On the morning of 30 April 1975, the 43-hour-old government of South Vietnam sat quietly on the second floor of this grand building - then called the Independence Palace - waiting to transfer power to the Northern forces who were crashing through the wrought iron gates below. 'There is no question of you transferring power,' they were told by a Viet Cong officer. 'You cannot give up what you do not have.' [/color]



IOW vapourware.





Quote:Don't forget that Israel is also called a nuclear power. Did they ever conduct a nuclear test? (Well, you can say that the US tested for Israel but there is no proof, just like Chinks tested for porkis)

How many nuclear armed neighboring enemies does Israel have?
  Reply
Arunji,



Continuing the discussion about TN from the other (wrong) thread:



Indeed what u say about audiences is correct. Regarding high energy facilities,

1) are our scientists getting access to Russian/French facilities or

2) are they helping us build such facilities ?



Even if it is 1), the design team would probably have been able to confirm the fix. Full user confidence / enemy deterrence requires field testing, which our own high energy facilities cannot do either. In any case, deploying the fixed TN makes sense, with testing done in the next few years once more Agni III/V are available for deployment.



3) Regarding numbers, BK suggests around 200 or so by now, compared to US NPAs who suggest 60-80 and claim we have fewer than TSP. Who is correct here ?



4) Are these stories about rapid buildup by TSP meant to stampede us into FMCT ?



5) With A-III dont we become a greater ballistic missile power than TSP ?



6) would we have nuke superiority vs tsp once we confirm our TNs ?
  Reply
deleted
  Reply
[quote name='Bharat_2009' date='29 November 2010 - 07:56 AM' timestamp='1290997083' post='109512']

Impact of indo-us agreement on India's strategic weapons program by Arun Sharma



[url="http://www.indiaresearch.org/Indo-USStrategicDeal.pdf"]http://www.indiarese...rategicDeal.pdf[/url]



It has got some good information about India's Weapons Grade Plutonium quantity.



Director(relative of mine) from one of the DRDO labs (don't want to reveal location) did tell me (in an argument, he let out some information) that we are making large number of nuclear bombs using xx (who have no clue what they are doing) in a secret location near xxxxxx and the best part is the storage of bombs (never want to go there)



but unfortunately, his argument was, why do we need so many nukes? let us all live peacefully !!

[/quote]



That papers arguments are correct, however there is no way to know:

1. What qty of the Pu is Reactor grade Pu, WGPu or Super grade Pu. Depending on the grade the qty of fissile material will change by an order or two (because of the technical arguments/assumption in teh paper) .



2. The lakh crore question is how much of the spent fuel is still left not reprocessed.



As for xx spin I will let imagination run wild of if it is possible and if so how? Not sure if iranians and Pukis can also do it as easily. Like teaching monkeys to fly. ( My bro's flight infrastructure in Dundigal told me two decades ago that even monkeys can be taught to fly, but IMV while that possibility exist, it does not means monkeys fly plane yet)





,
  Reply
[quote name='Kritavarma' date='29 November 2010 - 12:02 AM' timestamp='1290968641' post='109503']

Arunji,



Continuing the discussion about TN from the other (wrong) thread:



Indeed what u say about audiences is correct. Regarding high energy facilities,

1) are our scientists getting access to Russian/French facilities or

2) are they helping us build such facilities ?



Even if it is 1), the design team would probably have been able to confirm the fix. Full user confidence / enemy deterrence requires field testing, which our own high energy facilities cannot do either. In any case, deploying the fixed TN makes sense, with testing done in the next few years once more Agni III/V are available for deployment.[/quote]



I spent sometime to explain that issue and options in this article:

[url="http://www.indiaresearch.org/WayToACredibleDeterrent.pdf"]http://www.indiarese...leDeterrent.pdf[/url]



If India does not build on its soil the high energy laser facility, together with two competent and independent teams it does not alter the deterrence fiasco of R Chidumbrum's fizzle. Russi or french facility means nothing.
  Reply
For those who know the domain, the Pok-I TN experiment that fizzled, was meant to realize TN in sufficient qty while being cost conscious due to Indian settings. And that design is incompatible for submarine based deployment.



Let me just say that going ultra super grade Pu for submarine launched TN warhead is impractical for India because India have extremely constrained availability of ultra-super grade Pu, just because India simply does not enough military reactors to get that kind of juice to flow.



It is for a reason US NPA want to target and clampdown Indian mil Uranium enrichment capacity in Mysore. It is that TN connection fo rsubmarine version. And that version was no where in teh range of experiments done in Pok-II, irrespective of R Chidambram's fizzle specialization.



So TN for submarine does require new type of TN design & validation.
  Reply
Arunji,



Just read an article by NPA Jeffrey Lewis. who brazenly states tha there is a nuke race in S. Asia which TSP is decisively winning. How true is this ? Or is it that NPAs always underestimate our abilities ?



BK gives larger estimates for the size of our arsenal than NPAs. BK in his book still clams that our arsenal will grow larger than TSPs...whom to believe ?
  Reply
Its not useful to rely on NPA's claims. Let them claim what they want.
  Reply


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