05-20-2012, 03:23 AM
1KG of 30% to 40% HEU will require 90 SWU/year assuming tail out at 0.25% U235 and 0.7% NU. Airhant is said to use this 30 to 40% maal. For every 100,000 SWU you get approximately 1 ton of Arihant fuel per year.
Assuming Airhant is rated at 50,000 shp or slightly less it will require 160Kg of fuel for 10 years. (Note this higher rating is being used to provide an upper bound as much fuel as possible as opposed to an indication of real shp.) Even providing for exceptional extra maneuvering of the American variety it's 300kg of 40% HEU as fuel for 10 years. This assumes the nuclear core will last 10 years.
The largest estimate I have seen calls for 4 SSBNs and 9 SSNs. That's approximately 7 tons of fuel required over 10 years assuming a production rate of more than 1 submarine a year over 10 years.
For 90% HEU used in thermonuclear weapons it will require 210 SWU/year assuming tail out at 0.25% U235 and 0.7% NU. If it's only weapons production it's 571kg of 90% HEU. Modern thermonuclear weapons require a few tens of kgs of HEU. 5kg is a realistic estimate for the trigger and a bit on the upper end. The blanket used in Russian and American devices is also HEU. 25Kg of HEU was common in Russian devices. Depleted uranium can also be used as blanket. Using HEU as blanket will increase the explosive yield of a thermonuclear device.
When the new RMP facility comes up with 300,000 to 400,000 SWU/yr assuming 30 SWU/yr centrifuges are used. That's four tons 40% HEU of Arihant fuel a year or 1.5 tons of 90% HEU. Even on the lower end with the estimates released as of 2007 the RMP can produce 30,000 SWU/yr. Assuming a modest doubling in 2010 as reported it's 60,000 SWU/yr.
That's not all for submarines. So the only way to reconcile these numbers is to assume the rest are for thermonuclear weapons.
2.8 TN weapons a year assuming 25kg of 90% HEU with a 90% HEU blanket or 14.2 TN weapons a year assuming 5kg of 90% HEU and Depleted uranium blankets per 30,000 SWU/yr of operation and one new Arihant nuclear fuel load assuming american standards of propulsion per 30,000 SWU/yr. (Russian standard is half the requirement). Total SWU/yr being 60,000 SWU/yr.
At the higher end of the estimate with reductions for margin of safety on processing losses its:
22.4 TN weapons a year assuming 25kg of 90% HEU with a 90% HEU blanket or 113.6 TN weapons a year assuming 5kg of 90% HEU and Depleted uranium blankets for 290,000 SWU/yr of operation and one new Arihant nuclear fuel load assuming american standards of propulsion per 30,000 SWU/yr. (Russian standard is half the requirement). Total SWU/yr being 300,000 SWU/yr.
Of-course when the RMP doubling is completed these figures hold true. The estimates also assume we are at TC11 standards of 30 SWU/yr in centrifuges and this is the centrifuge used in doubling and not the earlier 20 SWU/yr centrifuge. Western analysts are not going to accept my jingo estimates. I am not worried about them. This also assumes the dimensions of our centrifuges are equal to urenco ones. We don't have any confirmation on this and we will never get it. So it's very uncertain analysis. Everyone can do it. Anyone whose business it is is doing this.
I thought a long time before posting this. If I can estimate this from the information in hindu, frontline and other online publications anyone else who needs to know has this information has this information. The estimates for further accuracy will be using software which has uncertainty analysis(I don't have the time for that so I have made back of the envelope calculations).
Assuming Airhant is rated at 50,000 shp or slightly less it will require 160Kg of fuel for 10 years. (Note this higher rating is being used to provide an upper bound as much fuel as possible as opposed to an indication of real shp.) Even providing for exceptional extra maneuvering of the American variety it's 300kg of 40% HEU as fuel for 10 years. This assumes the nuclear core will last 10 years.
The largest estimate I have seen calls for 4 SSBNs and 9 SSNs. That's approximately 7 tons of fuel required over 10 years assuming a production rate of more than 1 submarine a year over 10 years.
For 90% HEU used in thermonuclear weapons it will require 210 SWU/year assuming tail out at 0.25% U235 and 0.7% NU. If it's only weapons production it's 571kg of 90% HEU. Modern thermonuclear weapons require a few tens of kgs of HEU. 5kg is a realistic estimate for the trigger and a bit on the upper end. The blanket used in Russian and American devices is also HEU. 25Kg of HEU was common in Russian devices. Depleted uranium can also be used as blanket. Using HEU as blanket will increase the explosive yield of a thermonuclear device.
When the new RMP facility comes up with 300,000 to 400,000 SWU/yr assuming 30 SWU/yr centrifuges are used. That's four tons 40% HEU of Arihant fuel a year or 1.5 tons of 90% HEU. Even on the lower end with the estimates released as of 2007 the RMP can produce 30,000 SWU/yr. Assuming a modest doubling in 2010 as reported it's 60,000 SWU/yr.
That's not all for submarines. So the only way to reconcile these numbers is to assume the rest are for thermonuclear weapons.
2.8 TN weapons a year assuming 25kg of 90% HEU with a 90% HEU blanket or 14.2 TN weapons a year assuming 5kg of 90% HEU and Depleted uranium blankets per 30,000 SWU/yr of operation and one new Arihant nuclear fuel load assuming american standards of propulsion per 30,000 SWU/yr. (Russian standard is half the requirement). Total SWU/yr being 60,000 SWU/yr.
At the higher end of the estimate with reductions for margin of safety on processing losses its:
22.4 TN weapons a year assuming 25kg of 90% HEU with a 90% HEU blanket or 113.6 TN weapons a year assuming 5kg of 90% HEU and Depleted uranium blankets for 290,000 SWU/yr of operation and one new Arihant nuclear fuel load assuming american standards of propulsion per 30,000 SWU/yr. (Russian standard is half the requirement). Total SWU/yr being 300,000 SWU/yr.
Of-course when the RMP doubling is completed these figures hold true. The estimates also assume we are at TC11 standards of 30 SWU/yr in centrifuges and this is the centrifuge used in doubling and not the earlier 20 SWU/yr centrifuge. Western analysts are not going to accept my jingo estimates. I am not worried about them. This also assumes the dimensions of our centrifuges are equal to urenco ones. We don't have any confirmation on this and we will never get it. So it's very uncertain analysis. Everyone can do it. Anyone whose business it is is doing this.
I thought a long time before posting this. If I can estimate this from the information in hindu, frontline and other online publications anyone else who needs to know has this information has this information. The estimates for further accuracy will be using software which has uncertainty analysis(I don't have the time for that so I have made back of the envelope calculations).