[quote name='gangajal1' date='05 May 2012 - 09:52 AM' timestamp='1336191264' post='114803']
The FBF design used by BARC is sufficiently simple (adding a layer of LiD around the fission core, that we know works, and immersing it in Tritium gas) that it will work. What is not clear is how they can be so confident that their weaponized FBF will yield 300 kt. After all they have not tested any FBF design that is even close to 300 kt. What they have tested has an yield that is only about 5% of the 300 kt figure. Moreover, Chidambaram has said that BARC can design nukes with yields up to 200 kt. So was Chidambaram understating BARC's capacity?
[/quote]
http://books.google.com/books?id=nITHBdQ...kt&f=false
Here is the statement and the weapons available to us according to Indian Defense Review. I can't find a one to one correspondence to the tests with the weapons listed as available weapons. What I do note is a reference to a fusion boosted fission weapon with a yield of 150 to 200 kt made from reactor grade as opposed to weapons grade material. It fits in well with the fact that our weakest element in the entire fuel supply cycle until four years ago was enrichment. It's the weapon of choice given the cost and availability of material. It also provides us with a bigger arsenal close to china's arsenal of 2500 weapons. This weapon was also a dud in our tests according to Bharath Karnad. I find that plausible, he stated it did not give out as much as we expected it to give out. So I would assume with a corrective measure applied the yield is likely to increase to 300kt and at worst it will still give us 200kt. (This of course being the 12-15 kt s3 test which Santhanam claims should have produced a 25kt bang.)
(The duds were duds but not from the perspective given by wallace et all. They produced the 56kt as reported however they were not designed to be 56kt but much more, (more than 30) + 25 + 12 = north 67 kt, instead they produced 55kt or so reported (43? + 12 + .3?). (The exact breakup was the lie. The sum total wasn't a lie but the individual yields were not the right ones and it's impossible to verify except for santanam's statement that he was looking for a 25k bang.)The boosted fission was expected to be 25 kt. All the secondaries were empty/only enough to proof the fusion. These tests were proof enough that the secondary worked but not to the extent we expected them to pop. Inefficient yes, making miniaturization difficult with sufficient confidence. The MIRV warhead is stated to be 500kg each with a yield of 200kt(?). This is probably a sacrifice in weight to be get a more assured warhead. A dial-able warhead is one where we have the least confidence. Could also explain the 11 different configurations waiting tests.
Indian Defence Review: Jul-Sep 2010 has another article on the Shakti test series where the shakti 1 shot is reportedly as being a third generation device with a dial-able yield of 50kt, 150kt or 500kt. Deutrium-Deutrium-Lithium weapon.
If indeed the test attempted was such a 3rd generation test and radio chemical analysis produced shows there was fusion in s1 with a hollowed out secondary, we may have all the data we need to have a reasonably secure thermonuclear device. However all of this as Bharath Karnad and a lot of other folks feel is a simulated deterrent as opposed to a demonstrated deterrent. Our entire nuclear program right now is in simulated deterrent mode and all the weapons fielded are simulated weapons with a few correctives. The only weapon we really did perfect was the 1974 test of a simple fission weapon.
The sub kiloton tests 3 of them were significant and possibly Chidambaram who prefers simulations fancies the data is enough to create u-233 devices as well when the time is right. A large number of these tests seem to be centered around our primary problems we had until a few years ago with ramping up enrichment to an industrial scale. This as suggested explains the delays in the thermonuclear weapons for MIRV. We are just as slow progressing from Agni I to Agni V as we are on enriched fissile material weapons deployment.
Our sense of betrayal on the nuclear deal with ENR also stems from this aspect. The nuclear establishment is looking towards ENR to really push us through to the third stage of the nuclear program as opposed to weapons production. India possibly plans to field more weapons which are obtained without enrichment as opposed to highly enriched weapons. This could also explain India's stand on fissile material cut off treaty. Indian fissile material is the third largest or at least the fourth largest in the world if what I have posited is true. There may never be another test for a decade or more.
Edits: Refined thoughts on the breakup issue of S1, S2 and S3.
The FBF design used by BARC is sufficiently simple (adding a layer of LiD around the fission core, that we know works, and immersing it in Tritium gas) that it will work. What is not clear is how they can be so confident that their weaponized FBF will yield 300 kt. After all they have not tested any FBF design that is even close to 300 kt. What they have tested has an yield that is only about 5% of the 300 kt figure. Moreover, Chidambaram has said that BARC can design nukes with yields up to 200 kt. So was Chidambaram understating BARC's capacity?
[/quote]
http://books.google.com/books?id=nITHBdQ...kt&f=false
Here is the statement and the weapons available to us according to Indian Defense Review. I can't find a one to one correspondence to the tests with the weapons listed as available weapons. What I do note is a reference to a fusion boosted fission weapon with a yield of 150 to 200 kt made from reactor grade as opposed to weapons grade material. It fits in well with the fact that our weakest element in the entire fuel supply cycle until four years ago was enrichment. It's the weapon of choice given the cost and availability of material. It also provides us with a bigger arsenal close to china's arsenal of 2500 weapons. This weapon was also a dud in our tests according to Bharath Karnad. I find that plausible, he stated it did not give out as much as we expected it to give out. So I would assume with a corrective measure applied the yield is likely to increase to 300kt and at worst it will still give us 200kt. (This of course being the 12-15 kt s3 test which Santhanam claims should have produced a 25kt bang.)
(The duds were duds but not from the perspective given by wallace et all. They produced the 56kt as reported however they were not designed to be 56kt but much more, (more than 30) + 25 + 12 = north 67 kt, instead they produced 55kt or so reported (43? + 12 + .3?). (The exact breakup was the lie. The sum total wasn't a lie but the individual yields were not the right ones and it's impossible to verify except for santanam's statement that he was looking for a 25k bang.)The boosted fission was expected to be 25 kt. All the secondaries were empty/only enough to proof the fusion. These tests were proof enough that the secondary worked but not to the extent we expected them to pop. Inefficient yes, making miniaturization difficult with sufficient confidence. The MIRV warhead is stated to be 500kg each with a yield of 200kt(?). This is probably a sacrifice in weight to be get a more assured warhead. A dial-able warhead is one where we have the least confidence. Could also explain the 11 different configurations waiting tests.
Indian Defence Review: Jul-Sep 2010 has another article on the Shakti test series where the shakti 1 shot is reportedly as being a third generation device with a dial-able yield of 50kt, 150kt or 500kt. Deutrium-Deutrium-Lithium weapon.
If indeed the test attempted was such a 3rd generation test and radio chemical analysis produced shows there was fusion in s1 with a hollowed out secondary, we may have all the data we need to have a reasonably secure thermonuclear device. However all of this as Bharath Karnad and a lot of other folks feel is a simulated deterrent as opposed to a demonstrated deterrent. Our entire nuclear program right now is in simulated deterrent mode and all the weapons fielded are simulated weapons with a few correctives. The only weapon we really did perfect was the 1974 test of a simple fission weapon.
The sub kiloton tests 3 of them were significant and possibly Chidambaram who prefers simulations fancies the data is enough to create u-233 devices as well when the time is right. A large number of these tests seem to be centered around our primary problems we had until a few years ago with ramping up enrichment to an industrial scale. This as suggested explains the delays in the thermonuclear weapons for MIRV. We are just as slow progressing from Agni I to Agni V as we are on enriched fissile material weapons deployment.
Our sense of betrayal on the nuclear deal with ENR also stems from this aspect. The nuclear establishment is looking towards ENR to really push us through to the third stage of the nuclear program as opposed to weapons production. India possibly plans to field more weapons which are obtained without enrichment as opposed to highly enriched weapons. This could also explain India's stand on fissile material cut off treaty. Indian fissile material is the third largest or at least the fourth largest in the world if what I have posited is true. There may never be another test for a decade or more.
Edits: Refined thoughts on the breakup issue of S1, S2 and S3.