[quote name='gangajal1' date='06 May 2012 - 09:04 PM' timestamp='1336318009' post='114807']
The problem is that except for ignorant Indians no one will accept the 300 kt figure for FBFs. All we know is that India has exploded a single FBF of 15 kt yield. One can not scale up the yield by a factor of 20 and then without any test claim that your scaled up FBF will yield 300 Kt. This is simply not believable. Even accurate ICBMs will not help because no one will have any confidence in the warheads.
All one can say about the 300 kt FBFs is that something will happen. No one can say with confidence the yield of such an untested weapon. Then there is the age issue. We do not know the yield of a newly fabricated '300 kt FBF'. We are even more in the dark about how the yield of such a weapon will change with age. I myself believe that BARC can probably fabricate with some confidence 50-60 kt FBF based on the 15 kt FBF tested. I am very skeptical about the 300 kt yield.
It would have been more honest to simply say that we are unable to test because of the world political situation.
[/quote]
I agree on the we need to test. I am just looking at solutions without testing and a confidence interval we can hope for. Even the S1 test is a three part test, fission, boosted fission and a thermonuclear part.
If we are fielding FBF's with reactor grade fuel scaled up to 300 kt the issue will be more about the delivery weight. If we assume deterioration of yield is due to radioactive decay.(Please feel free to add correctives as I am no nuclear scientist.) Reactor grade fuel is less prone to decay and hence yield with age problem is also a problem which can be identified and investigated using controlled nuclear reactions in nuclear reactors. The other element which prevents FBF's being a preferred nuclear weapon for most other states revolves around the tritium production, replacement and cost.
The problem is that except for ignorant Indians no one will accept the 300 kt figure for FBFs. All we know is that India has exploded a single FBF of 15 kt yield. One can not scale up the yield by a factor of 20 and then without any test claim that your scaled up FBF will yield 300 Kt. This is simply not believable. Even accurate ICBMs will not help because no one will have any confidence in the warheads.
All one can say about the 300 kt FBFs is that something will happen. No one can say with confidence the yield of such an untested weapon. Then there is the age issue. We do not know the yield of a newly fabricated '300 kt FBF'. We are even more in the dark about how the yield of such a weapon will change with age. I myself believe that BARC can probably fabricate with some confidence 50-60 kt FBF based on the 15 kt FBF tested. I am very skeptical about the 300 kt yield.
It would have been more honest to simply say that we are unable to test because of the world political situation.
[/quote]
I agree on the we need to test. I am just looking at solutions without testing and a confidence interval we can hope for. Even the S1 test is a three part test, fission, boosted fission and a thermonuclear part.
If we are fielding FBF's with reactor grade fuel scaled up to 300 kt the issue will be more about the delivery weight. If we assume deterioration of yield is due to radioactive decay.(Please feel free to add correctives as I am no nuclear scientist.) Reactor grade fuel is less prone to decay and hence yield with age problem is also a problem which can be identified and investigated using controlled nuclear reactions in nuclear reactors. The other element which prevents FBF's being a preferred nuclear weapon for most other states revolves around the tritium production, replacement and cost.