Twirp : Terrorist Wahabi Islamic Republic Pakistan 3

[Naresh]

<b>Kayani Plan: Carve out soft PPP - Neena Gopal</b>

Bengaluru, March 17 : Pakistan’s “prelude to a revolution ” has passed, but the weakening of President Asif Ali Zardari in his tussle with his far more politically-savvy opponent Nawaz Sharif is a pointer that March 16 is only the opening salvo in a long and complicated campaign that the country’s real power centre, the Army, has only just put into play.

<b>A soft coup, this is the Army’s fist in the civilian glove, a bid to bring in politicians whom it can manipulate as a first step towards bringing in a government that does its bidding.</b>

Sources close to the establishment say Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani will be persuaded to cut Mr Zardari down to size, and bring in Mr Nawaz Sharif — or more probably the Army’s favourite, his younger brother Shahbaz — into an alliance to create a new political formation, the establishment’s version of former President Pervez Musharraf’s “king’s party”, the PML-Q. <b>“This will be the ISI’s PPP,” said the source, “and it will be the end of the PPP as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir knew it.”</b>

The Zardari-Sharif initial coming together worked against the military’s interests and resulted in the removal of Mr Musharraf. Once that was done, Nawaz Sharif, who had placed his trust in Mr Zardari, based on a woolly-headed and sentimental notion that the deal he struck with his former arch-rival Benazir Bhutto, with whom he built a surprising rapport, would stay the course with her successor — was in for a shock.

Mr Zardari had intention of ever honouring the charter of democracy. It gave the Sharifs’ Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) a pre-eminent position in Punjab, a province that Mr Zardari had long coveted. It ceded the Punjab-based party political space in the rest of the country that he had no intention of sharing.

That is what drove Mr Zardari to win over the PML(N)’s political ally in the North-West Frontier Province, the Awami National Party, whose leaders have traditionally been close to the Sharifs.

Mr Zardari recognised that in the long run, there would be only two political forces in the country, and that minus Benazir his brand of the PPP, the one run by his cronies, would not win the kind of landslide victory that was theirs in the February 2008 election.

In addition, as a PPP insider pointed out, “it’s universally known that bringing the judges back would end Zardari’s indemnity from prosecution for past crimes, it was his only card.”

The inevitable tussle for power, the shadow-boxing between Mr Zardari, the outsider who rules in the name of the PPP, and its notional leader, Prime Minister Gilani, opened the door for the Army Chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to exploit the growing rift between the two to cut Mr Zardari down to size and get back into the game.

<b>The military’s soft coup was the first counter-strike since former military dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf was forced from office.</b> Mr Zardari is the first civilian President armed with the powerful 17th amendment, which gave him the power to dismiss elected governments. This is a situation the military is not ready to tolerate.

Mr Gilani will use some of the strength he draws from the anti-Zardari feeling that runs through the rank-and-file of the PPP to push for either his further emasculation or his ouster.

The 17th amendment is in fact a double-edged sword. While any repeal of that amendment would end the President’s powers to sack elected governments, it has two more key components. One, an indemnity to President Musharraf that would clear him of blame for all his past actions, including the illegal imposition of martial law. Two, it allows Prime Ministers who have already served two terms to become eligible to stand for a third term.

Waiting in the wings is Mr Musharraf, readying for a rebirth as the man who has all the answers. In India for a conclave recently, Mr Musharraf spoke consistently on Kashmir being the reason that India faced the anger of the jihadis — not to the audience in New Delhi but to his constituency back home and in Washington. The reason : Pakistan’s constitution states that government officials must have demitted office for two years before they become eligible to hold any office again.

In tandem with Gen. Kayani, the United States — alarmed at the rise of anti-American sentiment and worried that its new Af-Pak policy is unravelling even before it has begun — has sent out feelers to the pro-Islamist Sharif camp in a bid to tackle the Al Qaeda-Taliban surge. The Sharifs are their plan ‘B’.

Plan ‘A’ , the insiders say, is already in place : an unstable PPP government under Mr Gilani, further unrest, the possible fall of the government in a bid to pave the way for fresh elections in December 2009.

By then, there will be a credible Opposition leader in Mr Gilani and two eminently suitable presidential and prime ministerial candidates waiting in the wings — Pervez Musharraf and at least one of the Sharif brothers. <b>Unless the people come out on to the streets again, something the Army is clearly uncomfortable with.</b>

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->