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2014 General Elections
#1
The Election Commission has announced the dates and poll schedule for the 12 Lok Sabha and accompanying State Assembly elections. Please post news and discussion on the subject in this thread. Please no polemics and just the facts and reasoned opinion.



Thanks, ramana





Polls from April 7th thru May 12th, Counting on May16th
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#2
^^ Bump ^^
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#3
As soon as the dates of the next General Election has been announced, both the print and electronic media is full of predictions on the likely outcome of the Elections. Many of the predictions are based on the traditional strong and weak points of the various political formations and individual parties and the past voting patterns in the various constituencies

I would like to submit that since the last General Election the maturity and awareness of the electorate must have increased. In the last five years the literacy rate must have increased and so more electorates can now better analyze the pros and cons of whom to vote. With the growing popularity of the powerful electronic media, all scams, actions and inactions of the various political formations, Governments and individual political leaders are getting highlighted in the public domain. The effect of all these factors in the mind of the ordinary voter cannot be predicted.

The power of the individual voter to decide on what should be the best for the country has increased over the years. So the caste factor and other regiona and local l considerations may not play an important role as in the past elections. Similarly, the communal factor may not be the deciding factor in many of the constituencies. So it is almost impossible to make any realistic estimate of the number of seats each of the major and minor political formations and parties may finally get when the result comes out.

Therefore, a few of the political leaders have correctly stated that the question of forming coalition can only be finalized once the results are finally out. Till than it is all speculation., except for the general impression that NDA will gain more seats than the UPA in the next Lok Sabha.
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#4
The BJP will contest from:



South Chennai - Tambrahm

Sriperumbudur

Nilgiri - anti Muslim

Coimbatore - anti Muslim

Mayiladuthurai

Sivagangai - Anti-Muslim

Ramanathapuram - Anti muslim

Tenkasi - anti muslim

Kanyakumari - anti- xtian



DMK front has Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam, a radical islamist party likely from Ramanathapuram and polarization will help BJP



In Kanyakumari , Congress will split away some xtian votes , advantage BJP



I think all BJP seats are winnable except Mayiladuthurai and Sriperum
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#5
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/...903587.cms



PUDUCHERRY: The All India NR Congress (AINRC) on Wednesday forged an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and named former Congress leader and former assembly speaker R R Radhakrishnan as the party's candidate in the lone Lok Sabha seat in Puducherry.



Addressing a press conference on Wednesday evening, Rangasamy said the alliance between his party and the BJP had been finalized. He said the party decided to align with the BJP considering the national party's focus on the development of the nation.



Rangasamy said during the course of the alliance talks, he had conveyed to the BJP leaders that his party would field candidate from Puducherry. The national party gave its consent to the Congress splinter group to field a candidate.



--



This guy controls Puducherry

he has named his party after himself and he has now joined NDA



Sure seat for NDA
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#6
Congress = 0 in TN



DMK = 8 seats, due to split with Alagiri



BJP front = 8 seats



ADMK = 23 seats



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In some seats, with weak prospects, DMK may silently support NDA to reduce AIADMK



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Puducherry, = 1 seat = NDA
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#7
http://news.outlookindia.com/items.aspx?artid=832547



TRS to align with BJP in Telengana



This puts NDA at roughly 12 seats in Telengana



Sushma Swaraj, Chinnamma should run from here
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#8
Kerala voters must be punished by NDA



Last time, O.Rajagopal was made Union minister, through Rajya Sabha quota



Just like Telengana was ripped off



Parts of Kerala can be ripped off to Karnataka and TN



Idukki, Palghat to TN



Manjeswaram, Kasargod to Karnataka



Belgaum to Maharashtra



In addition, the Gadgil and Kasturi rangan report must be fully implemented and xtian land grabbers

evicted
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#9
The NDTV-Hansa poll in TN was made on BJP alone basis



The poll predicts 8% for BJP, 4% each for PMK. DMDK, and MDMK and combined it adds up to 20%
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#10
Test post, please ignore
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#11
[size="5"][/size][url="http://adrindia.org/content/preliminary-candidate-report-lok-sabha-inc-bjp"]Criminal contestants from BJP & Congress[/url]
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#12
The Aam Admi Party (AAP) got a shot in arm in Thoothukudi with the Roman Catholic (RC) Fathers and fishermen community from across the district decided to extend support to the three coastal leaders, Pushparayan, Jesuraj and S P Udayakumar, contesting on AAP ticket.



A decision to this effect was taken at an indoor meeting, presided by Father William Santhanam, held here on Monday in which 26 Fathers attached to various churches, in which members of Fishermen United Front (Meenavar Iyikiya Munnani) also participated.



The meeting also decided to campaign among the fishermen community for the Aam Admi Party candidates, Pushparayan, Jesuraj and S P Udayakumar and garner votes of the coastal community.



At the last week meeting, the church members discussed various issues and sorted out the differences, said Subash Fernando, from Fishermen United Front.



The main reason for the fishermen population throwing their weight behind the Aam Admi Party trio was that they stood solid in the struggle against the Koodankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP), Subash said.



As there were more than 1.75 lakhs votes of fishermen in the coastal Thoothukudi, Pushparayan’s prospects were bright in this Lok Sabha constituency, opined Subash and added that his association was negotiating with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) to muster its support.



If the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) ( Islamist ) responded positively that would consolidate the Muslim votes thus increasing the chances for the Aam Admi Party candidate in Thoothukudi.
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#13
As the tempo to the next general election building up, the activities of various political parties and formations are also increasing. The usual fight for tickets among the ticket seekers have also started. It is more evident in the BJP Camp as the general expectation is that this particular party will be ahead of the others in winning the maximum number of seats. The same is the case in varying extent in the Congress camp as well as in the camps of the regional parties.

So far charter aircrafts and helicopters have not yet been pressed into service , perhaps because the list of candidates in various constituencies are in the process of being announced. It is also expected that the electronic media and the mobile network will also be playing an important role in the election campaign. With the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the outcome of the polls in that State is open to speculation at this point of time. What will be the impact of the Amm Admi party in the national scale is also an unknown factor , despite the media hype .

Besides the BJP and the Congress, the regional parties like SP and BSP in UP, the Tirnomool Congress in West Bengal and the AIDMK in Tamil Nadu ,NCP in Maharastra and NC in Jammu & Kashmir, BJD in Orissa are expected to win a sizable number of seats in their respective area of influence. Whether BJP led coalition will be able to gain absolute majority or will need the support of the regional parties is at the moment an open question. However, one aspect is increasingly becoming clear, that the majority of the voters will vote for the Party who they feel will bring in fast economic development.
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#14
http://bongumedia.blogspot.com/2014/02/t...-poll.html



This is Thanthi TV, for 30 / 40 seats in TN and Pondicherry, as of March 22



Note Pondicherry is not in this list and will go to NDA for sure



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ADMK = 39%

NDA = 27%

DMK = 24%

Congress = 8%



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ADMK ahead in 24 seats



NDA ahead in 6 seats



DMK ahead in 0 seats



--





Second Place



ADMK= 5



NDA = 7



DMK = 17



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NDA wins in



Kanya kumari = anti-xtian hindu consolidation



Vellore = anti-muslim



Krishnagiri = lots of kannadiga voters



Nilgiris = anti-muslim



Dindigul



Dharmapuri



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BJP in second place in Kovai ( winnable due to anti-muslim )



BJP in second place in Virudhunagar ( winnable due to Vaiko being local candidate )
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#15
One of the major developments in the last 24 hours have been India’s abstention from voting against Sri Lanka at the United Nations. It may earned goodwill from the Srilankan Government and a section of the population but back home the decision has come for sharp criticism from many political parties. In the process, the Congress is expected to loose the support of many of its supporters. Both the DMK and the AIDMK are expected to gain at the expense of the Congress party.











































































































































































--



ADMK ahead in 24 seats



NDA ahead in 6 seats



DMK ahead in 0 seats



--





Second Place



ADMK= 5



NDA = 7

AAA

DMK = 17



--



NDA wins in



Kanya kumari = anti-xtian hindu consolidation



Vellore = anti-muslim



Krishnagiri = lots of kannadiga voters



Nilgiris = anti-muslim



Dindigul



Dharmapuri



--



BJP in second place in Kovai ( winnable due to anti-muslim )



BJP in second place in Virudhunagar ( winnable due to Vaiko being local candidate )

[/quote]
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#16
Ibn poll, in TN



Vote Share



ADMK = 33%

DMK = 23%

NDA = 22%



Seats



ADMK = 20

DMK = 10

NDA = 9



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Vote share among young, 18 -25



NDA = 31% ( first rank )
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#17
As some of you might be knowing Pew Research poll is very prestigious organization surveying American polls mostly but I have noted for the 1st time that it has done for India's polls also;

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/...049931.cms?
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#18
This poll by the US Organisation has not indicated anything new, all these facts and trends have come out in other opinion polls also. How far cast, religion and other traditional factors play a roll will only be known after the results are out.
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#19
Ravish, True. Now even Nightwatch has report on Indian elections:



http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/Nig...00069.aspx



Quote:India: Special Comment. General elections begin on 7 April and will run through 12 May. A new Pew Survey poll found that Indians are unhappy with the direction of government and judge it is time for a change after a decade of Congress-led coalition government. While it is difficult to credit a poll taken in a democracy of 1.2 billion people with 812 million registered voters, Pew's findings are similar to the analyses of most Indian political commentaries.





The apparent front runner is the National Democratic Alliance, which is a coalition led by the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Its candidate for prime minister is Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat State. Its platform stresses economic development, especially job creation.





Rahul Gandhi, son of the late prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, is the candidate for prime minister of the ruling coalition which is led by the Indian National Congress. The Congress platform always calls for greater social justice.



Multiple surveys indicate Modi is more popular than Gandhi.





Looks like "Ab ki baar, Modi Sarkaar!"



Do you visit Bharat-Rakshak.com Forums?
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#20
Yes I do visit Bharat Rakshak sometimes ? Anything of interest.

Today's BJP and TDP alliance will further consolidate the position of NDA in the General Elections.It seems the NDA will get a comfortable majority, quite possible that the BJP may get absolute majority on its own.
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