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Nuclear Thread - 4
<!--QuoteBegin-ravish+Oct 1 2008, 07:59 PM-->QUOTE(ravish @ Oct 1 2008, 07:59 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Virenji,

Thanks for posting this very informative article. It is pity that despite the wise words of caution from Mudiji, the Indians masses have failed to act. There is neither a street demonstration nor a revolution for installing a new and more sensible regime devoid of incompetent fellows and foreigners.

I have one question. It is today a known fact that India has nuclear weapons. In case these are put to use there will be devastation. India has presently declared a moratorium , So why should there be any future need to test a nuclear device, since the ones we have in our possession to cause sufficient devastation of our opponent.  The only item that can and needs to be continuously upgraded are the delivery systems. Development of more modern weapon delivery system does not fall under the category of developing a nuclear weapon. Therefore, the question of conducting another nuclear test does not arise. <b>Even today, the A bomb of the same design that was used against Japan in 1946 can still be used with the same devastating effect. So what is the need to test more nuclear devices.</b> Hence , the whole question of India-US Nuclear deal appears to have been hijacked by a few political functionaries.
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The one that was used in 1945 there are mockups in New Mexico, was very big. In order to minaturize and package it for available delivery vehicles the tests were required. Its another matter that the DAE folks did say that it was a weaponisable config and not a weapon that was tested. So in the out years when the stuff needs to be deployed in case of worsening internatioanl relations then it has to be proofed.

My takeaway is that GOI by retaining the supreme national interests clause for testing have effectively put the onus on PRC good behaviour wrt India on them. An Indian test will only occur is there is border clashes or further proliferation vertical and horizontal from PRC to TSP and BD. And those who want to retain present order and stability will have in their interests to ensure PRC doesnt do that.

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<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->There is neither a street demonstration nor a revolution for installing a new and more sensible regime devoid of incompetent fellows and foreigners.
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Nothing against foreigners - love Robin Singh, Taslima, Francois Gautier, etc.. Yes there are those foreigners and even more Indians-but-mentally-foreigners who want to divide us, and they need scrutiny. Of course incompetent fellows needs to be shown the door too. Revolutions via ballot - am all for it.


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The US Senate has passed the bill. So Modyji's thinking of 19th Sep 08''One week left before US Congress go for long vacation. I don't think bill will come during this session. Congress is too busy with financial mess.
Now lets hope for GE and bye bye to Shame of India, Queen and SoniaDas and all his liquidation plan of India's security.''
has proved wrong.
Jai Hind
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Why people advocate street demonstration or revolution? Why Karl Marx to be injected everywhere when solution can be found by voting or calling your representative and letting them know your view in a very civil manner.
Agitation, bombing, burning etc don't solve problem. Indians should sell Karl Marx books to Kabari man.

I am very much disturbed reading news on Lynching of CEO, in Delhi. It is inhuman horrific and why it is acceptable and no outrage.
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<b>Senate approves deal to lift India nuclear ban</b>
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<b>NATIONS EYE INDIA'S VAST NUCLEAR MARKET</b>
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The Indo-US Nuclear Deal has been an important development. Despite all the controversies it is a significant deal. It is symbolic of India’s present standing in the international arena. This fact remains indigestible to many in India as well as in the forum. In fact, we in our criticism of the regime in power in New Delhi have conveniently overlooked the momentous event when India made a formal entry into the Nuclear Club.
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Yes Ravishji, it's a momentous occasion. Walk on any street, board any railway compartment or stop at any village chaupal and see if you can see the celebrations? Maybe in arugula-chomping-chabilis-sipping circuit, but nowhere else.
The problem could be that the message on the deal hasn't been sold to public yet and those cheering are doing so for pure partisan reasons.

If you can write a page or two in support of the deal or an alternate view, we'll be glad to put it online on our site.
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There is resistance to make signing statements on the 123. Watch the space.
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Virenji, In which e mail address I should send u the write up, do let me know. I will certainly attempt an article.
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<b>Exclusive: Barack Obama's letter to Dr Singh</b>

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Obama also expressed the hope "that a civil nuclear cooperation agreement can open the door to greater collaboration with India on non-proliferation issues," and informed Dr Singh that "this subject will be one of my highest priorities as president. I am committed to the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, and will make this a central element of US nuclear weapons policy."

"I will work with the US Senate to secure ratification of the international treaty banning nuclear weapons testing at the earliest practical day, and then launch a major diplomatic initiative to ensure its entry into force," he said.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was envisaged to be one of the major foreign policy successes of the Clinton administration, and president Clinton was on the verge of pressing India and Pakistan too into signing this treaty, but all of his plans were thwarted when the then Republican-controlled US Senate dumped this agreement and refused to endorse it, much to the embarrassment of Clinton and his administration.

In fact, at the time it was rumored that the Clinton administration was holding out India and Pakistan's acquiescence to signing the CTBT as a quid pro quo to the lifting of the punitive sanctions imposed against both New Delhi and Islamabad [Images] after their tit-for-tat nuclear tests in May of 1998.

In his letter to Dr Singh, Obama vowed to "also pursue negotiation on a verifiable, multilateral treaty to end production of fissile material for nuclear weapons," known as the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty.

Obama said in conclusion that he very much hoped "and expect India will cooperate closely with the United States in these multilateral efforts," and argued that "with the benefits of nuclear cooperation come real responsibilities--and that should include steps to restrain nuclear weapons programs and pursuing effective disarmament when others do so."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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<!--QuoteBegin-ravish+Oct 3 2008, 02:37 PM-->QUOTE(ravish @ Oct 3 2008, 02:37 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Virenji, In which e mail address I should send u the write up, do let me know. I will certainly attempt an article.
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Ravishji, I'll see if some of our common friends can facilitate this. Don't want to put email address on open forum.
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<!--QuoteBegin-Viren+Oct 4 2008, 03:31 AM-->QUOTE(Viren @ Oct 4 2008, 03:31 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin-ravish+Oct 3 2008, 02:37 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(ravish @ Oct 3 2008, 02:37 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Virenji, In which e mail address I should send u the write up, do let me know. I will certainly attempt an article.
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Ravishji, I'll see if some of our common friends can facilitate this. Don't want to put email address on open forum.
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<b>Viren Ji :</b>

You can E-Mail me and I will pass on to <b>ravish Ji</b>.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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<b>ravish Ji :</b>

You have G-Mail

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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<b>Viren Ji :</b>

You have Y-Mail.

Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
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[Nareshji

u have G-mail
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As a immediate gain of this nuclear deal,India can now look forward to import natural uranium to fuel its 17 Nuclear reactors, many of which are running at 57 % or less capacity against normal generation factor of 90%.This will bring marginal relief to the power sector.Five more reactors are presently under construction and according to Nuclear Power Corporation of India. They intend to go in for 8 more reactors in the first phase post Nuclear Deal. This is expected to add 8000MW at an investment of Rs. 50 to 60 thousand Crores.
The construction of this plant will also benefit the steel, cement and other industries and will certainly generate more employment. Therefore, the CII has welcomed the development.
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<b>Russia's Nuclear Shutdown Pads Reactor Orders, Purges Chernobyl </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- ``All zones, fire at the nuclear power plant,'' booms a loudspeaker at 9:00 a.m. near the Volgodonsk station deep in southwest Russia.

<b>Within 3 minutes, emergency personnel known as liquidators spill out of fire trucks wearing rubber boots and gloves to guard against electric shock as flames dance inside. At 9:14 a.m. an armored car rolls up, turret slowly twisting, measuring radiation. The command center receives a reading transmission: Abnormal. </b>

The shutdown, staged over two days each September and involving 800 specialists, is a rehearsal for an event the Russians are trying to show will never happen again 22 years after the Chernobyl disaster. At stake this year is an $80 billion global backlog of orders for Russian reactors and nuclear fuel that underpin the industry's future.

``Moscow, we are in the Ready-for-Emergency mode,'' Volgodonsk director Alexander Palamarchuk reports over a satellite camera to his superiors in the Russian capital 1,200 kilometers (740 miles) north.

Officials from 11 countries, including Iran, South Korea and France, observed the simulation on Sept. 24 and 25. <b>At the event, Russia staged a technical flaw, similar to one that occurred at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania in 1979, the worst nuclear incident in U.S. history. The glitch involved a relief valve failing to close automatically</b>.
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<b>U.S., India to sign civil nuclear deal on Friday</b>
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<b>In the league of extraordinary PMs</b>
3 Oct 2008, 0356 hrs IST, K Subrahmanyam

Manmohan Singh calls himself an accidental Prime Minister. Be that as it may, with the Indo-US nuclear deal and consequent liberation of India from the 34-year-old technology denial regime, he has secured his place in history as one of the notable prime ministers of this country.

He joins the ranks of Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, P V Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee in shaping and advancing India’s progress in international politics.

Nehru formulated India’s non-aligned strategy, not non-alignment as a doctrine. Shastri thwarted Pakistan’s carefully laid plans to seize Kashmir and humiliate India.

Indira Gandhi won the Bangladesh war and conducted Pokhran nuclear test. Rajiv Gandhi ordered the assembly of nuclear weapons when his far-sighted nuclear disarmament plans were ignored by the UN.

Narasimha Rao nurtured the nuclear arsenal and liberalised the economy with the assistance of Manmohan Singh. And, Vajpayee conducted the Shakti Tests and declared India a nuclear-weapons state. Vajpayee also initiated the dialogue with all major powers of the world to ensure India’s rightful place in the international system.

But it was given to Manmohan Singh to complete the process of liberating India from technology apartheid, obtain recognition for India as a power with nuclear weapons outside the Non-proliferation Treaty, but no longer boycotted by the international community. Today, India has strategic partnership with US, European Union, Russia, Japan and China. And it is recognized as one of the six balancers of power. India is invited to G-8 summit along with China.

Manmohan Singh understood well the changes in the international trends and the opportunities the post-cold-war world order presented to India. He enabled Indian entrepreneurship to take full advantage of the favourable international trends.

The result was the unprecedented 8% growth rate. His handicap was the political alliance with the Left, still steeped in Stalinist and cold war orthodoxy. This resulted in his reform programme being slowed down.

In the first four years he appears to have opted to keep the government going. However, in the fifth year he faced a choice between sacrificing the opportunity to achieve for India the liberation from technology apartheid and recognition as a legitimate sixth nuclear power, or, a few more months in office without risking a confidence vote. He decided to stake the life of the coalition government.

He succeeded in winning the vote of confidence for his government and timed it well. That timing generated pressures on international community to get India the IAEA safeguards, the NSG waiver and completion of the Indo-US nuclear deal in quick succession.

Manmohan Singh has been reviled by his opponents — that is nothing new in Indian politics. Shastri was called a ‘‘prisoner of indecision’’. Indira Gandhi was called a ‘‘Goongi Gudiyah’’. Rao was famous for his exposition that no decision was itself a decision. What Manmohan Singh has done is irreversible, just as his liberalisation and globalisation were.

In the immediate future the IAEA safeguards, the NSG waiver and the Indo-US nuclear deal are bound to be criticized by his opponents. But he has established his place in history. It is to be seen how he is going to use his newly-won clout. That will not make him a conventional politician.

His understanding of the international political and economic trends is far superior to that of most of our politicians. There is talk of his being projected as UPA’s prime ministerial candidate in the coming elections. The current achievements — the NSG waiver and the Indo-US nuclear deal — certainly justify this.
(The writer is a Delhi-based strategic affairs analyst)

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