UPA's Survival On 22nd July? And Aftermath

[Capt M Kumar]

I don't think so. As it is both the major parties BJP and Cong r already in election mode + Cong wants to leave NoClear deal for the next Govt to handle which I doubt will be UPA and needless to say BJP is doing it's overtures to BSP and other like minded parties like INLD, AGP and so on.
As if this is not enough, here is 1 more reason:
NEW DELHI: Admitting that ruling establishment is pulling all stops to get smaller parties and individual MPs to vote in favour of UPA during the trust vote, Left is also attempting to rally political parties so that the government can be toppled on July 22.

On Saturday CPM general secretary Prakash Karat had a meeting with party's parliamentary leadership to decide on the strategy inside and outside Parliament. [FONT=Impact][COLOR=red]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/artic...227525.cms

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo--> Even if it survives, it's not end of road for opposition:
Rule 198 of Lok Sabha lays down the procedure for a motion of no-confidence and it is stipulated that a second motion cannot be tabled by the opposition before six months. But this can be no buffer for the government from fresh ordeal since the July 22 vote is being sought under Rule 184 for "ordinary" motion that entails voting but is distinct from a "no confidence vote". Constitution has no provision for a "vote of confidence" as opposed to a no-confidence motion.

"Theoretically, the opposition can table a motion of no-confidence at any time when the House convenes next after the two-day special session ending on July 22," former Lok Sabha secretary-general Subhash Kashyap told TOI. It will meet for the winter session and could do so again for the first part of the Budget session in 2008 even if only to seek a vote of account ahead of general elections. That means a gruelling season ahead for the government the negotiating skills of whose leaders may be tested severely.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Trust_v...how/3233802.cms

[Guest]

Congress should increase price rate, I don't think it is fair to give small piece of icing to MPs and eat whole cake alone. Either they should share part of cake with icing and finely brewed coffee which will add zing. MPs should keep watch because Queen can provide pictures to media with glamaor all around. I think 6-9 MPs will have both side.

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> Former union IT minister and DMK MP Dayanidhi Maran announced on Monday night that he would abstain during the crucial confidence vote in parliament on July 22.

The former minister and Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi's estranged grandnephew issued a statement late in the night refuting rumours that he would vote against the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and said, "I will rather abstain."

Two Dravidian party MPs had failed to vote at crucial moments. One of them, Sedappatti Muthiah (AIADMK), had 'forgotten' to cast his vote in support of then prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999, while S.S. Rajendran (DMK) had claimed to be answering the call of nature during a similar instance in the mid-80s.

http://www.indiatoday.digitaltoday.in/inde...d=1&sectionid=4

[Bodhi]

<b>Advani steers BJP into topple mode‏</b>
Kolkata, Telegraph, July 16, 2008

New Delhi, July 15: The BJP leadership has transformed itself from a passive spectator into an active player in the effort to pull down the government as the party feels the UPA is precariously placed in the numbers game.

Party sources said the NDA's prime ministerial candidate, L.K. Advani, was instrumental in this change of stance after he realised that providing an opportunity to the government to redeem itself could prove costly. The party held its horses initially as the impression created after the Samajwadi Party's pledge of support was that the government would scrape through.

The scenario changed, and so did the strategy. A core committee meeting at Advani's residence today decided to draw up a plan to topple the government.

A meeting of all NDA chief ministers has been called on Thursday to firm up the plan. The BJP and its allies have issued whips to their MPs to be present in Delhi from July 20 — Advani will host a dinner for the MPs that day — and vote against the government.

The BJP is also in touch with the TDP, ADMK, AGP and the JMM for floor coordination. The BJP's deputy leader in the Lok Sabha, Vijay Kumar Malhotra, said: "We are in touch with smaller parties and Independents. Even some Congress MPs are in touch with us. There is no chance this government can survive. The UPA's numbers have not risen above the 250 mark."

Malhotra sought to discourage potential defectors, saying "money deals" would be probed if the BJP came to power. He accused Congress leaders of blackmail and horse-trading and said even corporate honchos were involved.

Spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad embellished the charge with an economic barb: "The Congress says the (nuclear) deal is in national interest. What is the national interest rate in this season of high political inflation?"

Prasad also took strong objection to "the whisper campaign" launched by the Prime Minister's Office that Advani had told Manmohan Singh he could not support the deal because of certain leaders in the party (BJP).

"We strongly deny this and dare the Prime Minister to level the charge directly instead of allowing his office to indulge in a whisper campaign," Prasad said. He added that the BJP delegation that met the Prime Minister had clearly said the deal hurt India's nuclear autonomy and couldn't be supported.

The BJP, which had earlier sent signals it wasn't serious about pulling down the government over the nuke deal, today tried to drive home the message that its opposition was not based on a single issue.

Senior leader M. Venkaiah Naidu said: "We want this government to fall because of its failure on all fronts. Inflation, rising terrorism and continuing agrarian distress has convinced us that this government should go."

Prasad stressed that a government that gave greater importance to "the nuclear deal, windfall taxes and corporate warfare than the miseries of the common man must be thrown out".

The BJP's earlier stance was aimed at making the distinction from the Left's position by highlighting it wasn't opposed to strategic ties with the US.

http://telegraphindia.com/1080716/jsp/nati...ory_9556404.jsp

[acharya]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> <b>BJP gears up for vote</b>
Vidya Subrahmaniam

NDA CMs invited to Delhi for strategy session

New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party has invited the Chief Ministers of the National Democratic Alliance to Delhi on July 17 for a strategy session ahead of the trust motion to be moved by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Top BJP leaders have already held two rounds of discussions on the trust vote at L.K. Advani’s house on July 14 and on July 15.

The party has issued a whip to its MPs to vote against the government and also directed them to reach the capital by July 20 well in time for the Parliament session commencing on July 21.

Briefing the press, spokesperson Ravi Shankar Prasad wondered about the priorities of the government which had ‘got caught’ in corporate disputes at a time the country was in the throes of “burning problems” such as spiralling prices and fertilizer shortage. ‘Under pressure’ from its new-found allies, the government is concerning itself with ‘corporate warfare.’

Mr. Prasad said all this had led to the question: “If the nuclear deal is in the national interest what is the current national interest rate?”

He also took the Samajwadi Party to task for its claim that Mr. Advani was more dangerous than George W Bush. The SP, he said, had organised a hartal against President Bush in Delhi and Mumbai when he visited India in March 2006. Party workers had beaten the President’s portrait with chappals and Mulayam Singh had refused to accompany Laura Bush to Agra to visit the Taj Mahal.

Mr. Prasad also refuted a PMO-sourced story, carried in some papers, which claimed that Mr. Advani told Dr. Manmohan Singh he had been unable to carry his colleagues on the nuclear deal. “This is baseless. If the Prime Minister has the courage, let him say this upfront, instead of conducting a whisper campaign.”

He said that in 2007 Dr. Singh had met Atal Bihari Vajpayee with a letter seeking his support for the deal. The BJP placed this request at a formal meeting attended by Mr. Advani, Rajnath Singh, Jaswant Singh, Yashwant Sinha, Arun Shourie and Brajesh Mishra. The participants discussed the proposal threadbare, sought the guidance of Mr. Vajpayee, and came to the conclusion that the “deal in its present form is not in the national interest because it compromises our sovereign rights.

“It is a misleading whispering campaign by a tottering government.”

Earlier party leaders, Venkaiah Naidu and Vijay Kumar Malhotra, claimed that the government would be defeated on the floor of the House. Mr. Naidu said the BJP was “seriously doing its homework.” He said two MPs from the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam as well as several smaller parties were in touch with the BJP. He said the National Conference was upset with the UPA because of its overture to Mehbooba Mufti, and similarly the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s Shibu Soren was annoyed at his exclusion from the Cabinet.

Asked if he saw no harm in voting with the Left parties, Mr. Naidu said: “If Karat or Bardhan is travelling in the same train, will I get down?”

Mr. Naidu said the Congress had voted with the BJP to oust V.P. Singh in 1990, and more recently voted with the BJP to have the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Council revived overriding the Left’s objections.

Mr. Malhotra alleged that the Congress was pulling out all the stops to buy support: money power, allurement to corporate houses and ministerial berths. “For all this, the party’s numbers will not cross 250 on the floor of the House,” he said.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

<b>Against nuclear deal </b>
Bharatiya Janata Party 130
Communist Party of India-Marxist 43
Bahujan Samaj Party 17
Shiv Sena 12
Biju Janata Dal 11
Communist Party of India 10
Janata Dal - United 8
Shiromani Akali Dal 8
Telugu Desam Party 5
All India Forward Bloc 3
Rashtriya Lok Dal 3
Telangana Rashtra Samithi 3
Revolutionary Socialist Party 3

Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 2
Assom Gana Parishad 2
National Conference 2
Kerala Congress 1
Nagaland People's Front 1
Janata Dal-Secular 1
Trinamool Congress 1

<b>TOTAL 266 MPs </b>

[Guest]

<b>Supporters of nuclear deal </b>
Congress 153
Samajwadi Party 39
Rashtriya Janata Dal 24
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 16
Nationalist Congress Party 11
Pattali Makkal Katchi 6
Lok Janshakti Party 4
Marumalarchi Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam 2
Indian Union Muslim League 1
Republican Party of India 1

TOTAL 257 MPs

One Kerala Congress lawmaker has been barred from voting in Parliament.
Two MDMK MPs have opted to vote against the government in Parliament while two other party MPs have decided to vote in favour.

While the Janata Dal-Secular is yet to take a stand, one of its MPs has decided to vote against the government

[Guest]

<b>Undecided </b>
Independents 6
Jharkhand Mukti Morcha 5
Janata Dal-Secular 2
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen 1
Bharatiya Navshakti Party 1
People's Democratic Party 1
Mizo National Front 1
National Loktantrik Party 1
Sikkim Democratic Front 1

<b>TOTAL 19 MPs </b>

These are 25 crore deal atleast for now.

[Guest]

CPI/CPIM must be feeling pretty insecure regarding their numbers and thats why the demand for Somntah Chatterjee to resign from speakership. Traditionally the speaker doesn't vote in the LS unless there is a tie. Left parties' calculation is that by asking Somanath Chatterjee to resign from speakership they can get two effective votes. One of Somnath Chatterjee, and one missing vote for Congress' new nominee for the speaker.

A speaker has lots of powers in such a fluid situation. But the fact that left parties are willing to sacrifice such powers for gain of two effective votes, shows their desperation in the numbers game.

[ramana]

C.B Naidu is the key. He should be supported for PM in post UPA scenario.

[Guest]

<b>'UPA Govt will not survive trust vote'</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->New Delhi, July 16: Unheard of political alliances. A<b>ccusations of vote-buying to the tune of more than $6 million an MP. </b>Criticisms of shady corporate lobbying with one of the world's richest men.

With the fate of the government dependent on a confidence vote on Tuesday, mudslinging and deal-making are in full swing and even sullying the relatively clean image of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
...........<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Key will be breaking JD- Godwa and SP.
C.B Naidu lacks number and ditched by SP and Ambani.

[ramana]

CBN will get the non-Congress parties together. Anilbhai will make sure that SP supports INC as he wants to throttle his brother. So SP might be non starter. Maybe a couple of votes migth come out but not much.

Maybe Advani needs to get the Hindujas to talk some Sindhi sense into the Ambanis. The Hindujas are quite silent in all this.

[Guest]

Ambani is Marwari.
Hindujas are fooled once, paid heavy price.

[ramana]

What is Malwari? I thought the Ambanis were Sindhis too.

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Jul 17 2008, 01:23 AM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Jul 17 2008, 01:23 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->What is Malwari? I thought the Ambanis were Sindhis too.
[right][snapback]84300[/snapback][/right]
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
it is <b>Marwari </b>trading caste. They are different from Sindhis, sindhis are from Sindh.
Marwaris are from Gujarat and surronding area.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Top Gujarati promoters include the Ambanis, Premji, Tanti, Sanghavi,Kotak and others. While the leading Marwari promoters include Birlas, Mittals, Bajaj, Agarwals, Jains,Goyals and Goenkas, the Parsi promoters include Tatas,Godrej and Wadia. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Guest]

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--> Left parties' calculation is that by asking Somanath Chatterjee to resign from speakership they can get two effective votes. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Also Ashok, as a speaker Chatterjee can allow/disallow an MP to vote. As in MP in jail with intentions of helping his cause can be allowed to vote while a MP with some court cases/charges pending and against his cause might not be allowed to vote. Depends on where Chatterjee's leaning. If CPI's calling for Chatterjee to resign, they are in indeed in deep trouble.

[acharya]

<b>
‘Few in Congress at grassroots level know about N-deal’</b>

Staff Reporter

Photo: Lingaraj Panda

Awareness programme: Passers-by listening to CPI (M) leaders at a street-corner meeting held in Berhampur on Wednesday. —

BERHAMPUR: Very few grassroots level Congressmen know anything about the ‘anti-national’ Indo-US nuclear deal that their party was advocating, alleged CPI(M) activists at four-hour-long session of public meeting held by the party in the city on Wednesday.

It was an effort of the party to educate common people regarding the intricacies of the controversial nuclear deal which was being opposed by the Left parties. Party Orissa State secretariat member, Ali Kishore Patnaik, who was a major speaker in this open session on queries in the minds of common mass related to the nuclear deal, said he found more interest in the minds of common men about it as it dealt with the sovereignty of the nation. “But the members of political parties like the Congress who are supporting this deal before public at the orders of their high command know nothing about the realities of the nuclear deal,” he said.

The CPI(M) leaders elaborated how the Indo-U.S nuclear deal would place India’s imported reactors under perpetual IAEA safeguards and risk their permanent shutdown in case it failed to toe the U.S. line on foreign policy issues. They advised the younger generation to study the details of the controversial nuclear deal and educate the ignorant people living near them. “It is an irony that for many local Congressmen ‘Hyde Act’ is still related to something to ‘hide’ or to the Hyde park of London,” said Mr Patnaik. The district secretary of the CPI(M), Kalu Panda, and several district secretariat members like Kailash Sadangi, Ram Chandra Nayak and Basanta Nanda took part in this marathon meeting to educate people, which ended at around 7.30 pm.

[acharya]

<b> TRS is emerging as nucleus of smaller parties
</b>
Special Correspondent

HYDERABAD: The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) seems to be emerging as the nucleus of smaller parties and Independents wanting to vote out the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government on July 22.

Union Agriculture Minister and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar set the ball rolling initially when he talked to TRS president K. Chandrasekhar Rao over telephone to seek the latter’s support in favour of the UPA.

But, the stand taken by Mr. Rao that the Union Cabinet first pass a resolution granting statehood to Telangana became a deterrent for the UPA camp to continue negotiations with him.

After the UPA gave up hopes, other parties and individual MPs were in touch with him almost on a daily basis. On Tuesday, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) president Mayawati called up Mr. Rao to seek his support in the voting against the UPA. National Democratic Alliance (NDA) convener George Fernandes contacted Mr. Rao over phone on Wednesday.
<b>
Mr. Rao is believed to be even prepared to support the candidature of Mayawati for the Prime Minister’s post, as she had favoured statehood for Telangana in the past. He is also planning to hold a meeting of smaller parties and Independents in New Delhi on July 20, for better floor coordination.</b>

Asked if an alliance of parties with contradictory ideologies such as the Left, BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party was possible, Mr. Rao said politics was always dynamic and there were no permanent enemies in it.

Two independent MPs, Manchiran Mayi (Manipur) and Tuksan Chawang (Ladakh), too pleaded with Mr. Rao to vote against the government. The former called on Mr. Rao at his residence here.

Though the TRS technically has three members in the Lok Sabha, the party had expelled one of them, A. Narendra, after a scandal. The party is proposing to issue a whip that its members vote against the government.

[acharya]

<b>
Jailed MPs can take part in trust vote</b>

Special Correspondent

PATNA: The UPA government had reasons to cheer on Wednesday as two MPs belonging to the coalition, now in jail, will be in a position to vote on the motion of confidence to be moved by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on July 22.

The Division Bench of Justices S.K. Singh and A. Sinha of the Patna High Court allowed RJD MP Md. Shahabuddin to attend the special session of the Lok Sabha on July 21 and 22.

The Bench ordered that the MP be taken from the Siwan Jail to New Delhi on July 20 and brought back on July 23. He would have to bear the cost of his travel and that of the escorting police party.

The same Bench granted bail to Lok Jan Shakti Party MP Suraj Bhan Singh in the Rami Singh murder case. He is likely to be released from the Central Jail, Beur, on Thursday after completion of formalities. A Begusarai court on June 25 had held him guilty of killing Rami Singh, a farmer, in 1992 and sentenced him to life imprisonment along with two others.