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2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments-2
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brihaspati wrote:
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->I had speculated some time ago that the western powers and others interested in preserving TSP will see to it that the current GOI and the regime behind it returns to power in the next round of elections. For this they will need to give something to GOI to make it look powerful and active agianst Jihad at least temporarily. Thus there will be a great deal of pressure by the USA, UK, and PRC on TSP to provide a sop that refurbishes the image of GOI and the political forces behind it save their seats. I guess this plan of action is moving forward. In this sense, the strategic leadership of India for the immediate future has moved somewhat into the hands of US+UK+PRC. The common people will be voting for their immediate material gains and they have no reason to share in the concerns of a minority in the elite about long term and apparently abstract larger strategic issues even if they understand the potential consequences. For most parts, probably for them, the entire elite is self-centred and highly dupliticious and completely unrelaiable when they talk of "principle" and "nation".

Thus if there is no electoral reflection of the majority's strict stance on "national threats", US+UK+PRC+EU (UK kisses both PRC and US a** as they have laways done for their own geo-strategic power games) can very well combine with the GOI (which will be glad for the rescue) for strategic leadership of India, at least until the elctions roll over.

How do you look at the members of the current GOI having relationship with western govt, western leaders etc. Tony Blair was endrossing Rahul Gandhi

One of the great psychological and public dramatic advantage the Cong enjoys now is its projection of "young" leadership as a team. They have cleverly tried to shield RG from taking all flak by putting up OA as an young "face" of Indian Islam who appears to act as an ally (the classic JLN+FA image to pull the wool over rest of India) and in the "youth brigade" and his sister also doing the rounds to diffuse the focus a bit. However the dynastic thinking has one great shortfall - it cannot tolerate abilities that surpass that present in the bloodline. OA was selected only because he was politically weak in the national context. Any future additions to the dynastic team has to based on the strict criteria of politically weaker, glamorous enough to mesmerize "young" Indians (I am hazarding a guess that the more photogenic, and camera charming they are the better their chances of selection - have not had a poll about this, but "handsomeness" of both RG and OA apparently turn a lot of the "better half" youth to jello!), and not more intelligent than RG, neither more crowd pulling than RG. So a host of weak, less competent, charming and ruthless young ambition will be pushed up - all who would be forced to be dependent on the name/heritage represented by RG for their power. The Indian state machinery will probably help - as it is not unlikely that it remains under deep penetration from USA+UK from right after the days of transition at Independence.

For the west, a weak leader dependent on western powers to a great extent even to neutralize internal opposition is a good thing to happen. I will gues that even PRC will lower its aggressive tone for the moment, at least until the Cong returns to power. None of the gang of four UK+EU+USA+PRC wants a force to come up in India that does not rely on outside-of-Indian-ness as an integral part of its acceptability locally and globally. Just as for the Cong+Left, it is also important for the gang-of-four to prevent any strongly nationalistic and culturally independent core leadership to form in India.

<b>The Politics of Opportunistic Alliance</b>

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>The Politics of Opportunistic Alliance</b>
February 14, 2009 by janamejayan

‘Politics makes strange bedfellows’ is an adage that is proving itself to be true in India as the elections draws near.

The communists grew up as a political force by branding the Congress Party as ‘bourgeois-landlord’ party and claiming that the overthrow of that party’s government would be their revolutionary zeal.  In the year 1962 they even split their own party accusing a section of being soft towards the Congress though it was really a split based on which one of the foreign communist governments - Russia or China - that they would be supporting.  In the year 1976 they joined hands with Jan Sangh to overthrow the Congress to come to power as a coalition government.

Fast forward to the 1990s.  When communism started unravelling in Europe and the once powerful ‘red soldiers’meekly surrendered to the ‘imperialist’ Americans, the communists in India were in a quandary unable to sell the success story of international communism.  At the same time the Congress Party was weakening as an All Inda Party as the regional parties that were both truly regional and also of the splintered Congressmen were gaining in strength.  It was because the Congress Party that had banked on its power in creating and then relying on the caste based political leaders in their hundreds all over the country suddenly found themselves betrayed by its own creation - the very caste leaders - switching sides to the regional parties to bargain and claim increased prominance.  The Jan Sangh had left the Janatha Party of the higgedly-piggedly promiscuity and floated their Bharathiya Janatha Party identifying themselves with Hindutva idealogies.  The Congress also changed tack and advanced their slogan of secularism so as to increasingly rely on the minority vote banks of Muslims and Christians.  The communists finding themselves bereft of both their idealogy and their sworn enemy decided to change gear and so they decided to jettison  the ‘bourgeois-landlord’ alliance of the Congress as their enemy and invented a new enemy in its place - communalism!  This made it easier for them to sleep with their old enemy - the Congress Party - to oppose the braving force of Hindutva movement of the Bharathiya Janatha Party. Thus was born the UPA govt led by the Congress Party supported by the communists.

When the communists decided to pull the plug on the UPA govt led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh they sought the help of the BJP - their arch enemy and readily got it.  But lo and behold! Opportunism is not their monopoly and to their dismay the Socialists under Mulayam Singh Yadav decided to align with the rest of the splintered socialists to save Manmohan Singh Goverment from the new alliance of the ‘communists and communalists’! In this endeavour of the Socialists Maino’s illgotton money played into many hands!!

The Indian Communists are really at crossroad at this juncture.  In Kerala, the State of their idealogical fountain from where they have most prominent polit bureau members including the general secretary, they are confronting pitched battle between Achuthanandan the Chief Minister and Pinarayi Vijayan the State Secretary of the party.  In West Bengal the party had misused their power to come down heavily on the dissenting peasants.  And suddenly the communists are becoming untouchables all over India! The next election might bring home the truth that the communists are a spent force in India.

Of course there is always the exception and the exption to this isolation of the communists is to be found in Tamilnadu where Jayalalitha has ditched the BJP in favour the communists in her alliance making efforts.  In this the BJP is more to blame for their historical macho attitude to her in favour of the most cantankerous and vilest anti-Hindu politician on earth - Mu.Karunanidhi.  Together with Dr.Subramanian Swamy who was also humiliated by some arrogant leaders of the BJP she quelled their pride in defeating Vajpayee govt.

The vote against Manmohan Singh govt on the so called ‘Nuclear Deal’ was not the making of the communists alone.  There had been dissenting voices from parties that had lost power in the last election.  They all had decided to form a ‘third front’ which included Mulayam Singh’s Socialist Party.  However Mulayam aborted this attempt at forming the third front for whatever reason. The new love between the Sonia and Mulayam are in the rocks at this juncture as the Congress is playing the Muslim card in Mulayam’s effort to garner more OBC votes by roping in Kalyan Singh from the BJP just as Maya had garnered the Brahmin votes away from the BJP.  However Mulayam is asserting as to who is the boss in UP against Maya’s BSP.  Sonia should learn to lick his shoes if she needs to win her family seats in the U.P.

This in nutshell is the story of the evolving political opportunism in India with particular reference to the communists whose demise we are about to see.  We might see more of the opportunism in the coming days and also some jellying up of a third front post election.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>I share a beautiful relation with Sonia: Amar</b>
Next we will hear wedding bell. <!--emo&Big Grin--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
SP will not oppose Pawar as PM: Amar Singh
<b>I have won the heart of Sonia: YSR</b>
Staff Reporter

Show of strength: Chief Minister Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy addressing people at Pippara in West Godavari district on Saturday as part of Rajiv Palle Baata.

ATTILI (WEST GODAVARI DISTRICT: Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy on Saturday claimed to have won the heart of his party chief Sonia Gandhi by undertaking a slew of pro-poor programmes during his tenure in the last five years.

Addressing a gathering as part of the Rajiv Palle Baata at this delta village, Dr. Reddy asserted, “I have totally succeeded in realising the dream of Ms. Gandhi and she is thoroughly overwhelmed by my performance in the State.”

Dr. Reddy hinted that the Congress would go it alone in the coming elections.

Addressing an impressive gathering, he said development of the State could be possible only with political stability which was guaranteed by the Congress.

Referring to the ‘grand alliance’ led by the TDP, he said stability would become a casualty if such conglomeration of small parties without any ideological like-mindedness was voted to power.

Portraying TDP president Mr. Naidu as a ‘rank opportunist’, Dr. Reddy asked the people not to fall prey to his talk.

Recalling Mr. Naidu’s opposition to free power for agriculture during the previous elections, he criticised the TDP leader for ‘making a U-turn’ on the issue now. He also accused him of betraying the farmers by aligning with the TRS and the CPI (M) as they created hurdles for the Polavaram project.
Godavari delta

Dr. Reddy accused the Telugu Desam Party of working against the interests of the Godavari delta.

He assured the delta farmers that the government would not allow even a single acre to whither away for want of water.
When Mulayam Singh had won over Kalyan Singh from the BJP the Congress played the Muslim card to stop Mulayam from expanding as such an expansion would make the SP more bigger in relation to Congress with the result the Congress would get fewer seats from its alliance with the SP. Mulayam is unfazed and is on the march to expand his alliance, this time with another arch-enemy of Sonia - Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party.

<b>Pawar, Mulayam meet to discuss possible alliance</b>
the Uttar Pradesh chief minister when the Babri mosque was razed in 1992.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"Right now we have Manmohan Singh as the leader. But in case Sharad Pawar gets a chance or Mulayam Singh gets a chance they will not oppose each other," he said.

His statement comes at a time when the SP is having a tough time in arriving at an alliance with the Congress in UP. "

Amar Singh of the SP<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

These 'allies' of the Congress in the UPA have already written off the Congress!

<b>Maya Behan recruits Mafia Bhaiyas</b>

VARANASI : The ruling BSP in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday declared the <b>Mafia don turned MLA Mukhtar Ansari </b>as its candidate from Varanasi for the coming Lok Sabha polls.

<b>Ansari is facing dozens of criminal case of murder, kidnapping loot and land grabbing and presently lodged in the jail for his alleged involvement in murder of BJP legislator, Krishnanand Rai.</b> He represents Mau Assembly seat as an Independent MLA and now face senior BJP leader and former Minister Murli Manohar Joshi in the Lok Sabha elections from Varanasi.

<b>Mukhtar’s brother Afzal Ansari was recently declared as the BSP’s candidate for the Ghazipur </b>parliamentary constituency from where he is a sitting MP on SP ticket. <b>Afzal who was in jail in connection with the murder of Krishnanand Rai was released on bail recently. Afzal has also been rewarded with Y grade security for his gesture towards the BSP supremo.</b>

The <b>eldest of the Ansari brothers, Sibgatullah Ansari, is a SP legislator from Muhammadabad constituency from Ghazipur district </b>and expected to join the BSP camp. Sibgatullah was present at the dais when BSP zonal coordinator Tribhuwan Dutta announced Afzal’s name as the party candidate for the Ghazipur seat.

Ansari brothers are not the only men from SP getting a BSP ticket. The party has already announced<b> Shahid Siddiqui’s candidature for Bijnore </b>while S P Baghel has been given the ticket for the Ferozabad seat.

The SP MP Shafiq-ur-Rehman Barq, who had voiced his resentment over the new-found friendship between Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kalyan Singh, also left the party to join the BSP and the party has obliged him by naming him as the candidate from Sambhal Lok Sabha seat.

“The credit of Mulayam’s success goes to Muslims, but he has now alienated the community after using it. <b>Now he is trying to play the Hinudutva card but he does not know that Yadavs are merely 7 per cent whereas there are 27 per cent Muslims, who have now lost faith in Mulayam,”</b> said Barq who represents Moradabad in th e Lok Sabha.

A former congress <b>MLA from Rampur Afroz Ali also joined the BSP today</b>. Muslim leaders like <b>Saleem Shervani and Azam Khan would also leave Mulayam to join Mayawati,</b> source said.

Another SP parliamentarian Munawar Hasan from Muzaffar Nagar, who died in a road accident, had also shifted his loyalties to BSP. The party has given the ticket to his wife.

While Mayawati is drawing a lot of flak from UP’s electorate on the governance front, she seems be have outsmarted her bete noire and head of Samajwadi Party, <b>Mulayam Yadav, who till now enjoyed uninterrupted support of Mafia goons and Muslims in Uttar Pradesh.</b>

<b>Desperate to cherish her ambitions of becoming the Prime Minister, Mayawati has gone to recruit each and every Mafia element available in the state</b>. The list of mafia criminals is unending in the BSP list that includes mafia dons like D P Yadav, Mukhtar Ansari, Arun Shankar Shukla, Dhananajay Singh, Hari Shankar Tewari, Rizwan Zaheer (wife of late mafia don Munnan Khan) and so on.

The proclaimed ambition of Mayawati to become the prime minister of the country is not totally impossible, if her party is able to secure even 50-60 Lok Sabha seats in a hopelessly muddled post-Lok Sabha poll scenario. The BSP’s triumphant Dalit-Brahmin alliance, the mainstay of her social engineering, has overnight become a blueprint for electoral success across the country.

<b>“She is planning to virtually obliterate the Congress and the BJP, and reduce Mulayam Singh’s Samajawadi Party to single digits in the next Lok Sabha, </b>” says noted journalist Ajay Bose in his book “Behenji: A Political Biography of Mayawati”.

According to Bose, Mayawati is also a favourite of the Sangh Parivar, including powerful sections of the RSS, who are strong supporters of her Dalit-Brahmin alliance.
in that case it looks like the most likely candidate to become the PM is Sharad Pawar.
<!--QuoteBegin-rraajjeevv+Feb 16 2009, 03:02 AM-->QUOTE(rraajjeevv @ Feb 16 2009, 03:02 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->in that case it looks like the most likely candidate to become the PM is Sharad Pawar.

There are four possibilities not necessarily in the following order. (1) NDA led by BJP gaining majority forming a government with a BJP P.M.; (2) UPA led by the Congress gaining majority with a Congress P.M.; (3) An alliance of non-Congress parties to have a non-BJP P.M. forming a government with inside or outside support of the BJP; and (4) An alliance of non-BJP parties forming a government with inside or outside support of the Congress.

The people of India have already tried all the above four alliances. The only thing they have not tried is a BJP govt. commanding absolute majority. I am not sure if this is possible in the next general election There is absolutely no chance of the Congress ever forming a govt. commanding absolute majority.
The last possibility is possible provided Shri Narendra Modi is given a free hand in running the show by the BJP leadership.A non Congress and a Non BJP coalition is most unlikely as the Left will not be able to retain all the seats that it won last time.Another factor apart from the Left's performance is whether Paswan, Lallu Yadav,Mulayam Singh, C B Naidu and DMK will line up together or not.The possibility is very remote.
I respect Advaniji. However his leadership, I am afraid, might become an albatross in the next election. It is too late to change the leadership now. I am hoping that I am proved wrong.

There are parties other than the BJP that are part of the NDA. And there are parties that keep equi-distance from both the Congress and the BJP. Example, AIADMK, BSP, TDP etc. If these two groups have enough clout they could demand a non-BJP P.M. Likewise if those non-Congress parties in the UPA have enough clout they could demand a non-Congress P.M. This could lure some of the third front parties to join them.

They are all in the realm of possibilities. And there are forces at work to bring about the realization of these possibilities. Only the election result can say which one is actually possible.
<b>Cong attitude - give more seats or face CBI: Amar</b>

Allahabad/New Delhi: Charging the Congress with using the CBI as a ‘Damocles' sword’ in seat-sharing negotiations, Samajwadi Party on Tuesday said it would not give more seats to the grand old party in Uttar Pradesh ‘under any amount of pressure’.

On senior Congress leader Digvijay Singh's statement that his party had not gone to SP with a begging bowl, Amar Singh ‘I wish to remind him that we had not supported the UPA Government led by his party out of our own need either’.

At a village situated 25 kms from Allahabad, Amar Singh said he was ‘deeply hurt by the shabby treatment’ by the government and its attitude ‘zyada seat do warna CBI ki talwar haazir hai (give more seats or else find the CBI hanging over your head like a Damocles' sword).’

"The Congress ought to remember that the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party had offered its hand of friendship at a time when it had lost power in states like Punjab and Uttarakhand and the threat of the same was looming large over the Centre with the Left having pulled out. But Congress never respected that and victory in assembly polls in Rajasthan and Delhi seems to have gone into its head", he said.

<b>Chiru nudges Goud to tie up with BJP</b>

One is desperate to prevent his political oblivion, and the other jittery over his political debut. In concerted
moves by a veteran politician and a novice, a behind-the-scenes attempt is on to bring about an unlikely alliance of the Prajarajyam and the Nava Telangana Party with the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state.
While officially the three parties are denying any such move, sources in the PRP and NTP said Chiranjeevi has deputed T Devender Goud to woo the BJP into striking a poll alliance or at least a seat adjustment. “To take on thetwo major forces in the state — the ruling Congress and the TDP-TRS-Left combine — Chiranjeevi has directed Devender Goud to explore some sort of arrangement with the BJP,” sources told the TOI.

It was Devender Goud who had negotiated with the BJP on behalf of TDP president N Chandrababu Naidu after the general elections in 1998 to forge an alliance, which lasted for five years. “Goud who is finding himself politically marginalised after quitting the TDP and forming his own party, which failed to take off, is the mediator,” the sources said.

According to the sources, Goud held talks with Chiranjeevi and Naga Babu on the issue on Monday after which the NTP leader confabulated with BJP floor leader G Kishan Reddy the same day. “Devender Goud will lead a delegation to New Delhi to meet BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L K Advani and party president Rajnath Singh on Thursday,” the sources said.

Goud told at a press conference on Tuesday that his delegation will offer the support of the PRP and NTP to the BJP on the private members’ bill to be moved in the Lok Sabha by the right-wing party on Telangana on February 20. “But the agenda also includes forging some kind of understanding for the elections,” sources said.

The state BJP, however, is publicly maintaining that there is no question of any understanding with the PRP-NTP combine and that it would go it alone. But indications are that it is not averse to exploring a few options to expand its base in Andhra Pradesh. The PRP and NTP have already announced that they will have a tie-up for the coming general and assembly elections.

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"The state BJP, however, is publicly maintaining that there is no question of any understanding with the PRP-NTP combine and that it would go it alone."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I don't understand the purpose of this stand. To me it is the stupidest statement of a person ready to do harakiri.

I hope Mr.Goud is a successful catalytic agent.

If PRP-NTP-BJP could form an alliance it may even prompt Chandra Babu to seek some seat adjustments with this new alliance to isolate the Congress.

If the Congress can be reduced to a handful of seats from Kerala and shut out from the rest of South India, you can then write its epitaph! (Rest in Piece!!)

By the way, in the battle state of U.P., I even fancy the possiblility of seat adjustments between the BJP and BSP!! That will be a plus!

In Maharashtra the Shiv Sena has seen a lot of desertions since the last election. BJP also was rudderless since the murder of Mahajan. This is breaking up the cohesion between the two parties. Now the Nationalist Congress leader Sharad Pawar is trying to wean away Shiv Sena from the NDA. This will be a big minus!
I think it may be better for BJP to go alone in AP as it already has triangular contest and BJP is the fourth one. If BJP is able mobilize its supporters strongly, it has chance of winning some significant number of seats and become a major player in future.

You are talking of the winning chance in pokets where BJP is relatively strong. An alliance would not barter away these pockets. On the contrary it will increase the chances of the BJP winning them without sweat. Also the alliance would defeat the Congress in other seats.

In an election we should not only win where we can but we must see to it that the main enemy is isolated and defeated where we cannot win.
<!--emo&Sad--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo--> The AIADMK supremo added, "Congress should severe ties with DMK if they expect to come back to power. AIADMK & Congress have been friends in the past, and on the basis of the past friendship, I am giving Congress this advice."

Yea, this is politician's advise! JJ is trying to isolate the DMK and not help the Congress. At this juncture the DMK will surely become a spent force without the support of the Congress. Congress is already a spent force in Tamilnadu and cannot win a single seat without the support of one or the other of the Dravidian outfits. Karunanidhi is the sack that holds the DMK's 'nellikkais' together. These nellikkais will scatter once he is gone just as the Congress did after Kamaraj.

After the general elections in April-May, the DMK govt will be dismissed! This is my prediction.
Mohd Azharuddin joins Congress to contest from Hyderabad?

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