2009 Poll Prospects And Alignments-2

[Capt M Kumar]

<!--emo&<_<--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='dry.gif' /><!--endemo--> As far as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are concerned, the major gainers will be Ms Mayawati and the BSP, Mr Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) - they can also combine after elections in the UNPA. The ground reality is that if the Congress and BJP maintain their 'seats' then the UPA/NDA, depending on actual numbers, will be viable and the UNPA/Independents will float towards either group.
The four Assembly elections due this year -- in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh -- in November will be hard fought on all sides. The BSP is likely to cause extensive damage to the Congress in many Assembly constituencies in these States. But while the BJP is poised for an easy victory in Delhi and will put up a strong fight in Rajasthan, the Congress should win in the other two States.
Anti-incumbency will be a major issue as will be inflation, but other factors will also influence voter decisions and since victory or defeat is often determined by two to three per cent vote swings, it would be difficult to forecast events at this stage where the contest is between two major parties in States like Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, etc.
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