02-01-2009, 12:33 AM
the BJP is likely to put up a very good show in the states where they are strong. My estimates for the NDA are as follows.
TN - 0
Kerala -0
Karnataka - 21
Maharashtra- 33 (BJP-14)
Gujarat-22
MP-23
Chattisgarh-10
Orissa-17 (BJP-7)
Jharkhand-11 (especially if they get Babulal Marandi on their side)
Bihar-30 (BJP - 10)
Assam-5 (BJP-2)
UP-5 (some seats like Gorakhpur will stay BJP...)
Uttarakhand-4
HP-3
Jammu-1
Punjab-5 (BJP-2)
Haryana-6 (BJP-3: after all in Haryana, INLD-BJP alliance for the Lok Sabha is equitable)
Delhi-3 (I still feel 3 LS seats in Delhi is quite possible)
Rajasthan-11
Other states-0
Total NDA-210 (BJP-152)
This gives around 210 seats to NDA (approx. 150 BJP). Overall, I think thisis reasonable though I may be off in a few states. For ex: Raj. LS performances by the BJP were very good in 1999 even though their assembly performance was horrible. This time they gave a tough fight in spite of internal sabotage . A better organised fight in the LS polls will give more seats. There however, are crucial difference between 2004 and now.
1. The congress seems to be making the same mistake the BJP made back then in "putting the allies in place".
2. The congress Allies are not in great shape this time. The NDA is the direct benificiary of this onlyin Bihar/Jharkhand.
For example, in TN it is likely to be Jayalalitha this time.
In fact, (Jayalalitha+)+Mayawati+(TDP+PR ) are likely to have around 30+50+17=97 seats. These arent INC friendly. All in all, unless the BJp botches up candidate selection big time, it looks like the INC will not return to power. Some kind of third front arrangement might well be possible - in fact, it seems to be the most likely outcome of this election.
In any case, a third front with Mayawati is certainly better than the INC. Anything indigenous is. Of course, the ELM will try to make it look as though INC is cruising to victory. They said the same abt NDA in 2004. In fact, at that time, the BJP was dreaming of 300 seats for itself. We all know what happened. So, lets hope that this is 2004 in some kind of reverse. Not an impossibility.
In Orissa, it should be easy. Recently , the INC was not able to ecome the largest party in local elections despite BJP and BJD fighting separately.
Regarding INC+, here are my numbers <!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo-->i shall be generaous to INC in these estimates)
TN-1
Kerala-12
Karnataka-5
Andhra Pradesh-25
Maharshtra+Goa-17 (INC-9)
Gujarat-4
MP-6
Chhatisgarh-1
Orissa-4
Jharkhand-4 (INC-2)
Bihar-10 (INC-2)
UP-25 (INC-10) b/c of SP....
Delhi-4
Rajasthan-15
Punjab-8
Haryana-4
HP-1
Uttarakhand-1
J&K-6 (INC-2)
Assam-9
WB-6
Other NE -4
UPA~172 (INC 135)
Left
Kerala-8
WB-22 (Pessimistic...)
Tripura-2
Here and there-3
Total~ . 35
More likely that left will do better than this in Kerala andWB at INC's expense....
Of course Maya+Jaya+TDP+PR+Left+INC would have ~300 seats. With a crucial difference. The balance would have shifted away from the INC more towards the leftand regional parties. So, a third front govt is quite possible. The more unstable the better.
TN - 0
Kerala -0
Karnataka - 21
Maharashtra- 33 (BJP-14)
Gujarat-22
MP-23
Chattisgarh-10
Orissa-17 (BJP-7)
Jharkhand-11 (especially if they get Babulal Marandi on their side)
Bihar-30 (BJP - 10)
Assam-5 (BJP-2)
UP-5 (some seats like Gorakhpur will stay BJP...)
Uttarakhand-4
HP-3
Jammu-1
Punjab-5 (BJP-2)
Haryana-6 (BJP-3: after all in Haryana, INLD-BJP alliance for the Lok Sabha is equitable)
Delhi-3 (I still feel 3 LS seats in Delhi is quite possible)
Rajasthan-11
Other states-0
Total NDA-210 (BJP-152)
This gives around 210 seats to NDA (approx. 150 BJP). Overall, I think thisis reasonable though I may be off in a few states. For ex: Raj. LS performances by the BJP were very good in 1999 even though their assembly performance was horrible. This time they gave a tough fight in spite of internal sabotage . A better organised fight in the LS polls will give more seats. There however, are crucial difference between 2004 and now.
1. The congress seems to be making the same mistake the BJP made back then in "putting the allies in place".
2. The congress Allies are not in great shape this time. The NDA is the direct benificiary of this onlyin Bihar/Jharkhand.
For example, in TN it is likely to be Jayalalitha this time.
In fact, (Jayalalitha+)+Mayawati+(TDP+PR ) are likely to have around 30+50+17=97 seats. These arent INC friendly. All in all, unless the BJp botches up candidate selection big time, it looks like the INC will not return to power. Some kind of third front arrangement might well be possible - in fact, it seems to be the most likely outcome of this election.
In any case, a third front with Mayawati is certainly better than the INC. Anything indigenous is. Of course, the ELM will try to make it look as though INC is cruising to victory. They said the same abt NDA in 2004. In fact, at that time, the BJP was dreaming of 300 seats for itself. We all know what happened. So, lets hope that this is 2004 in some kind of reverse. Not an impossibility.
In Orissa, it should be easy. Recently , the INC was not able to ecome the largest party in local elections despite BJP and BJD fighting separately.
Regarding INC+, here are my numbers <!--emo&
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='sad.gif' /><!--endemo-->i shall be generaous to INC in these estimates)TN-1
Kerala-12
Karnataka-5
Andhra Pradesh-25
Maharshtra+Goa-17 (INC-9)
Gujarat-4
MP-6
Chhatisgarh-1
Orissa-4
Jharkhand-4 (INC-2)
Bihar-10 (INC-2)
UP-25 (INC-10) b/c of SP....
Delhi-4
Rajasthan-15
Punjab-8
Haryana-4
HP-1
Uttarakhand-1
J&K-6 (INC-2)
Assam-9
WB-6
Other NE -4
UPA~172 (INC 135)
Left
Kerala-8
WB-22 (Pessimistic...)
Tripura-2
Here and there-3
Total~ . 35
More likely that left will do better than this in Kerala andWB at INC's expense....
Of course Maya+Jaya+TDP+PR+Left+INC would have ~300 seats. With a crucial difference. The balance would have shifted away from the INC more towards the leftand regional parties. So, a third front govt is quite possible. The more unstable the better.