<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+Aug 21 2008, 08:06 AM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ Aug 21 2008, 08:06 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Things not looking good for BJP in TN. They had been relying on AIADMK and now AIADMK is tilting towards the Left and has said she has no issues wih Mayawati as PM.
Without allies in TN, AP and poor performance in UP, the chances of BJP coming to power in 2009 is low.
G. Subramanium, I do not think Chiranjeevi going to ally with BJP. There was a news report on that. BJP's voteshare in AP was less than 2% in the last election. So, unless BJP increases voteshare in AP and TN, the incentive for parties to ally with BJP is not there.
If BJP manages to get 170 seats or so,there could be post poll alliances.
08-21-2008, 09:04 AM (This post was last modified: 08-21-2008, 11:59 AM by shamu.)
As far as BJP is concerned, it got very few MPs from AP & TN. It doesn't matter if it has to go alone because if BJP needs support of TDP/Chiranjeevi/AIADMK to form the government, they will come forward to keep CongI at bay or to enjoy fruites of power.
It becomes an issue only if third front members get too many seats. Left and Laloo are going to see their share of MPs going down substantially, and I doubt if third front is going to be viable.
Key thing for BJP is to increase its tally in Karnataka and Gujarat and ensure that UP doesn't slip out.
<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+Aug 21 2008, 08:49 AM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ Aug 21 2008, 08:49 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->G. Subramanium, I do not think Chiranjeevi going to ally with BJP. There was a news report on that. BJP's voteshare in AP was less than 2% in the last election. So, unless BJP increases voteshare in AP and TN, the incentive for parties to ally with BJP is not there.
If BJP manages to get 170 seats or so,there could be post poll alliances.
In 1998, BJP got 18% of the AP vote and 5 seats on its own
The alliance with Naidu crippled the BJP
Chiranjeevi visited Advani last week
And In Dailypioneer, Chiranjeevi has gotten positive press for months
In addition BJP supports Telengana and some of the telengana leaders like
Narendra are ex-RSS
<!--QuoteBegin-Pandyan+Aug 21 2008, 10:41 PM-->QUOTE(Pandyan @ Aug 21 2008, 10:41 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->G. Sub, what are the BJP prospects in TN, if at all any? Do you think they could ever break through?
Tamil Nadu is a very difficult case
The BJP cannot break through as it is PERCEIVED as a brahmin north Indian party
The only way to break through is to let Hindu Munnani be a separate tamil hindu party
sort of like Shiv Sena is a Marathi hindu party
In the medium term if fat diabetic JJ passes on, the AIADMK can perhaps evolve into a hindu tamil party
Thanks to dravidianist politics, being anti-hindu is considered cool
The rank and file of AIADMK has many hindutva hindus
In Tamil Nadu, most places, there are no muslims and muslims are considered dravidian
The xtians are mainly crypto xtians and they keep hindu names and hindu dress
and the adheenams are mainly bought off
Populist hindus such as Melmaruvathur has weekly visits from Xtian priests where they read the bible
Anti-Xtian stuff is only done by Kanchi mutt and Swami Dayanand Saraswati
both considered 'brahminical'
GS, I don't think Thiruvallulvar was a Jain. Dravidianists label all great tamils as jains or something else in their drive to strip tamils of any Hindu identity. They also claim Ilango Adigal was a Jain, but there are references in tamil texts that prove otherwise. As for non-veg, entire tamil pop (save brahmins and few upper caste) has always been non-veg, there is no use dissuading the practice.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->1. Tiruvalluvar also sings of those who nilamisai neetu vazhvar -
another concept alient to Jainism.
2. Tiruvalluvar holds the Brahmin as the gold standard the society
should emulate, and the possibility that a Brahmin might forget to recite
the Veda as the ultimate digression from dharma - something that does not
fit with Jainism.
3. Tiruvalluvar translates and paraphrases directly from the
Manusmriti and The Bhagavad Gita - neither Jaina texts. He does not cite
verses from any Jaina text.
<!--emo&:blow--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blow.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='blow.gif' /><!--endemo--> The government has suffered the mortification of postponing a meeting required under the RTI Act as the leader of opposition in Lok Sabha, L K Advani, refused to attend it unless a fresh list of names was drawn up for the proposed expansion of the Central Information Commission (CIC).
In a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday, Advani cited three reasons for declining to attend the meeting that was scheduled to take place the same evening between these two and home minister Shivraj Patil, who constitute a committee under Section 12(3) of the Act, to select the information commissioners proposed to be added to the existing five in CIC.
<!--QuoteBegin-Pandyan+Aug 23 2008, 06:18 AM-->QUOTE(Pandyan @ Aug 23 2008, 06:18 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->3. Tiruvalluvar translates and paraphrases directly from the
<b>Manusmriti</b> and The Bhagavad Gita - neither Jaina texts. He does not cite
verses from any Jaina text.
Manusmriti? Could you please get more details of that?
The very first chapter of Tirukkural is "kaDavuL vAzhthu" which means "Praise of Eesvara", now as far as I know Jaina's don't believe in Eesvara.
The case of Ilango Adigal (author of Silappathikaram) and and Tolkappiyar (author of first Tamil grammar Tolkappiyam) are also similar, they are both labelled Jaina but there is enough evidence contradicting the label, only Manimekalai is definitely a Bauddha work.
<!--QuoteBegin-kharavela+Aug 24 2008, 03:35 AM-->QUOTE(kharavela @ Aug 24 2008, 03:35 AM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->I was thinking that entry of Chiranjeevi into AP politics is good for BJP since it will cut everyone else down to size. Since BJP is a small player, its importance will increase.
In the longterm (5 to 10 years), BJP will get a realistic opening in AP. Chiranjeevi is going to be a big facts as things stand today. Unfortunately BJP is stuck in sepearate Telangana issue and could not expand inspite of its potential. Once Telangana is solved in one way or other then BJP can move forward.
I am visiting India after a long time and watched most of the analysis yesterday and to me it seems like a huge success. Time will tell how Chiranjeevi will capitalize on the initial success. The first rally was extremely huge.
On the negative side, this new party called as prajarajyam sounds like another leftist party. However, it might end up like another TDP.
AP is the single state needs to be watched as if Congress loses in AP the potential of Congress NOT coming second in Lok Sabha is a possibility.
Irrespective of how he fares in the hurly-burly of electoral politics whose dynamics are not determined by charisma alone, it must be conceded that Telugu cinema's superstar Chiranjeevi has made a blockbuster of an arrival on the political scene. <b>Tuesday's rally in Tirupati was both a demonstration of his huge fan-following and the organisational abilities of his aides -- mobilising five lakh people (Chiranjeev's loyalists claim at least 10 lakh people turned out for the rally) for a public meeting in this day and age is no mean achievement</b>. Seasoned politicians and senior leaders would be delirious with joy if 50,000 people were to attend their public rallies; a turnout of 10,000 is considered a commendable success. But, it would be incorrect to assume that the adoring crowds who jammed the rally ground in Tirupati on Tuesday are a definitive or reliable indicator of what lies ahead for Praja Rajyam Party and Chiranjeevi. Making the transition from being a reel life hero who is worshipped by millions of people to a real life politician is not an easy task. Others have tried to emulate MG Ramachandran and failed, though NT Rama Rao was stunningly successful, although only a lakh of his fans turned up for the Telugu Desam Party's inaugural rally in March 1982; he was no less a star than Chiranjeevi. Yet, it would be in order to suggest that given the caste appeal of Chiranjeevi, the Kapus, whose political loyalty till now was evenly divided between the Congress and the TDP, will gravitate towards Praja Rajyam Party. <b>Coupled with his pan-Andhra Pradesh popularity and increasing cynicism with the established political order, which has been tested and found to have failed in matching popular expectations, this is bound to create a certain turmoil in the State's politics.</b> The Reddys will no doubt remain with the Congress and the Kammas with the TDP -- the BJP is a marginal player and really does not matter any more in Andhra Pradesh -- but this by itself is unlikely to ensure status quo: What was till now bipolar politics will become a triangular contest for power. Chiranjeevi may not taste outright, over-riding victory over his rivals, but he will surely inflict serious, or even fatal, injury. <b>It is anybody's guess as to which side, the Congress or the TDP, will suffer the most casualties.</b>
That apart, there is no reason to be impressed by Chiranjeevi's political agenda -- others have talked of self-pride, regional aspirations, poverty elimination (not alleviation), and taking a kindly view of those who indulge in violence, in this case Maoists. There's nothing novel about paying obeissance to BR Ambedkar, MK Gandhi, Mother Teresa and Jyotiba Phule through vote-for-me posters either. <b>Where Chiranjeevi scores is that he is yet to be tested; tired of both the Congress and the TDP, voters may elect to give him and his Praja Rajyam Party a chance. With Mr Chandrababu Naidu floundering for a political platform that carries conviction and the Congress suffering from anti-incumbency, Chiranjeevi could make a dent.</b> The last time Andhra Pradesh resounded with clamour for change was after NT Rama Rao's simha garjan (lion's roar, nothing less would do for him). This time a different kind of declaration of war has been made; for the moment, we must wait for the Congress and the TDP to join battle. It would be an interesting fight for power and spoils of office.
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Aug 27 2008, 12:56 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Aug 27 2008, 12:56 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Mupalla, AP isÂ a must win for INC return to power. Do post your views here and in BR on AP situation.How is the flood situation in Hyderabad?
The floods are a cause of illegal construction extending to streams. All the floods are of type "flash floods" and are gone in a day. Yesterday I was travelling inside the city and there was a downpoar for 30 minutes and the watter logged upto one third of the car. It took about 2.5 hours to reach 2 km and today morning it is all back to normal.
Regarding political mood, there is huge anger at least in the city. I was taking only cabs and normal transport mode to just to talk to cross section of the population. One cab driver said "I will vote to even a pig if it defeats Congress".
In Hyderabad, backlash against Muslim apeasement had hit even the illiterate and that is a first. In my view, the lowest were always after their daily bread but this is the first. May be my sampling is not that accurate but that is how I feel.
The first impression is Coastal belt (Godavari and Krishna districts - the heartland) is in waves towards Chiranjeevi. Historically, this is where AP changes start and hence we need watch this guy in the next few months.
The general feeling is TDP is the one that will be badly affected. However, CBN is a maverick and I personally think not all is lost. He is trying a bigger game of bringing in Mayavati and splitting the SC vote between Maya and Sonia. If he succeeds the game is anyones.
I have never seen that many political players in AP and it is very difficult to predict the outcome.
Four important political parties to join NDA: Naqvi
Bangalore (PTI): Three to four important political parties in the country are expected to come into the NDA fold ahead of Lok Sabha polls, a senior BJP leader said on Friday. "NDA is discussing with important political parties to strike a pre-poll alliance for the coming Lok Sabha elections. We are confident that three to four parties will come into its fold", BJP Vice-President Mukthar Abbas Naqvi told a press conference here.
He refused to name the political outfits with which NDA is in talks while responding to a query whether the new political party "Praja Rajyam" launched recently in Andhra Pradesh by film star Chiranjeevi would join NDA.
Naqvi, who is here to assist his party's Karnataka unit in making preparations for the upcoming three-day National Executive to be held from September 12, ruled out BJP withdrawing support to BJD government in Orissa in the wake of sectarian violence.
"We are concerned over the developments in Orissa. But BJD is one of our important allies. The on-going trouble will not affect BJP-BJD relations. We will not withdraw support to the government", he said. The BJP Central Election Committee is meeting in Delhi on September two and expected to finalise at least 300 candidates for the next year's Lok Sabha polls, he said.
About 200 members are attending the National Executive and its senior leader L K Advani would address a Sankalp Yatra in the city on September 13, Naqvi said.