12-18-2008, 07:22 PM
From a comment on Offstumped..
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Lok Sabha 09 state by state seat analysis and ideas
Taken from LK Advani.in Portal written by Shri.Raghav Ramachandran
Very Incisive and Exhaustive Findings -cum-Recommendations.
ââââââââââââââââââââââââââââââ
I have gone through the results of the last elections and put down my predictions on a state basis for the upcoming elections based on the constituency results last time (which can be seen at the election commission website) and the state and national factors. This is what I have concluded.
State 2004 2009
NDA UPA 3rd Others NDA UPA 3rd Others
Haryana 1 9 0 0 6 4 0 0
Punjab 11 2 0 0 11 2 0 0
JK 0 2 1 3 1 1 3 1
Uttarakhand 3 1 0 1 4 1 0 0
UP 10 9 19 42 10 8 44 18
Bihar 11 29 0 0 16 23 1 0
HP 1 3 0 0 2 2 0 0
Meghalaya 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Assam 4 9 0 1 11 2 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
Nagaland 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0
Jharkhand 1 12 1 0 5 8 1 0
Mizoram 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Manipur 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
WB 0 6 35 1 0 7 27 8
Orissa 18 3 0 0 16 5 0 0
Karnataka 18 8 2 0 20 6 2 0
Tamil Nadu 0 32 4 4 0 13 3 24
Kerala 0 1 15 4 0 6 11 3
AP 0 29 5 8 1 17 15 9
Goa 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Chattisgarh 10 1 0 0 9 2 0 0
Maharasthra 25 22 0 1 29 18 0 1
MP 25 4 0 0 22 7 0 0
Guj 14 12 0 0 15 11 0 0
Rajasthan 21 4 0 0 19 6 0 0
Delhi 1 6 0 0 2 5 0 0
UTs 1 4 0 1 1 4 0 1
Total 178 211 84 71 203 161 109 71
NDA = BJP + JD(U) + SS + INLD + SAD + AGP + BJD
UPA = Congress + PMK + DMK + NCP + JMM + RJD + LJP + IUML
3rd Front = BSP + TDP + JD(S) + NC + Left + RLD
Others = SP + AIADMK + TMC + TRS + Praja Rajyam + DMDK + MDMK + Smaller parties and Independents
I have gone through the state and constituency wise results last time and have tried to factor in the events since 2004 to come to the numbers above. According to my calculations, the NDA gains about 25 seats, the UPA looses about 50 and the 3rd Front gains about 25. I think my prediction will be correct to around a 5% error (about 25 seats may move around).
The Main conclusion here is that the BJP will be the single largest party, the NDA the single largest alliance, but will still be nowhere close to forming the next government. We need atleast 70 seats more to be able to do that. This is why I believe we actively need to get more allies before the election, otherwise it will be very difficult to get partners after the election.
If the results come out as above, a very real possibility is a 3rd front govt formed with outside support of the UPA (usual argument of keeping out âcommunal forcesâ) with Mayawati as PM. They would have the numbers to form the government.
Some other combinations I have thought about :
1) If the Congress and SP tie up in UP, which they might given both parties are weak and BSP is very strong, the numbers could change dramatically. In UP the numbers would then be NDA-8, BSP+RLD-35, Cong+SP-37. This would make the total numbers NDA-201, UPA - 190, 3rd front - 100. The UPA is now much stronger and can seek out allies to form the government. The BJP will be nearly decimated in UP and Mayawati too will be severely challenged.
2) In a post poll scenario, it is very possible that the Left and SP will support the UPA in forming a government. The Left would demand the removal of Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram from the posts of PM and FM which the Congress would gladly agree to form the government. The Congress will install Rahul Gandhi as PM and function with Left support.
3) If the Congress gets more allies from the 3rd Front / Others category, they can increase their numbers to about 200 and be in a good position to form the government.
4) Most importantly, if the Congress projects Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate, that alone will give them about 25-35 seats more and they will be in a comfortable position to form the government, with support of some allies.
Given all these numbers, the conclusion is that we are nowhere close to forming the government without many many more allies. The party is a non-entity in the vital big states of WB, TN, AP, Kerala which together have 144 seats and a very small player in UP which has 80 seats. We need to actively pursue allies in these states and try to bring the numbers of our pre-poll alliance to atleast 240. Only then can we hope to form the government in a post poll scenario.
Many people have commented in other posts that the party should try to expand its base in these states without allies. While I strongly favour the party expanding itself, in our multi party system it is very difficult for a party to make inroads in states where it has no presence. The party has about 8% in Kerala, 3% in TN and similar single digit numbers in AP and WB. A party which truly claims to be a national party cannot be a nonâentity in about 200 out of 543 seats and cannot even hope to form a government.
I believe allies our essential. We must look to the following allies
1) AP - TRS ( agreement on Telengana) and Praja Rajyam. We can score in the Telengana region with the TRS help. Chiranjeeviâs party will have a vote share of about 10% due to his image (DMDK in TN got a vote share of 10% in the first election due to Vijaykanth). 10% will not give the Praja Rajyam any seats however. If we have an alliance of TRS-BJP-Praja Rajyam, the alliance can win about 10-15 of the 42 seats in AP. Also in a post poll scenario, the party can look to the TDP to give outside support to the government, if the situation arises. The BJP is strong in the coastal areas and can try to score a couple of seats here.
2) TN - The party is a non-entity in this state. We only have a 3% vote share in the state and cannot even hope to win a single seat on our own. We need to ally wherever possible. We can try and ally with the DMDK which will have a 10-14% vote share. The alliance might be able to win a few seats. The BJP should still try to form an alliance with the AIADMK which is likely to perform very well in the next elections. Even though the AIADMK recently allied with the Left, after the elections we can try to win them over. If we can get Rajnikanth to publicly support the party, it would greatly increase our voteshare and our chances of getting seats and allies. We also have to use favourable media like Tughlaq to spread our ideas. Other parties like the MDMK are also potential allies.
3) Kerala - The party has a 7% voteshare in the state, concentrated in a couple of seats. We can try and win these seats, though we would still need allies in the state which is a stronghold of the Congress and the Left. We can try to find some local parties and ally with them to get the votes - even a couple of seats from this state would be a great achievment nationally speaking. This is a southern state the party can actually try to penetrate on its own in the future.
4) WB - Another state which is a Left stronghold. The Left is likely to lose seats due to Nandigram, Singur etc. The Congress and the TMC are most likely to gain. The BJP should try to patch up with Mamata Banerjee and get her back on board, atleast after the elections. The BJP should try and penetrate the state in seats in the outskirts of the state.
5) North Eastern States- Barring Assam, the other NE states contribute 10 seats. The BJP should tie together all the non-congress non-left parties in these states and win them over to the NDA. This would be a great help in reaching our goal of 272, and expanding ourselves in this region for future elections.
In all other states, the BJP is in a good position. In MP and Jharkhand, the BJP can try and reach out to Uma Bharathi and Babulal Marandi. Other dissidents like in Gujarat, UP, Rajasthan need to be brought back amicably to score well.
The BJP is in a good position in Northern, Western and Central India barring UP. The party should strengthen itself in these areas and try to win an overwhelming majority of the seats in order to form the next government.
Overall I think we are not in as good a position as we should be. I think we need to actively start campaigning now to do well next year.
Some worries
1) A very plausible outcome of the elections, if the results are approximately as above is the formation of the NDA government with Mayawati either giving outside support or as Deputy PM. While this is not a nice thing to think about, we should keep this in mind. Like I mentioned before, the 3rd front might get enough seats to be able to demand the PMs post - maybe Advaniji as PM for half the term and Maywati for the other half - the Jammu Kashmir - Karnataka model. I sincerely hope this outcome does not arise.
2) Rahul Gandhi - I believe that Rahul Gandhiâs so called âyouth appealâ does not extend beyond the traditional Congress party vote base of Gandhi family sycophants, and their youth. However, this does form a significant portion of votes in the country and gives credence to the Congressâs claim of Rahul Gandhi being a ânational leaderâ. Moreover the biased media seems hell bent on projecting him in as good light as possible, as the saviour of the country. He does not give interviews or press conferences, and does not deviate from script so that he does not appear foolish - and the media love that. So every time he opens his mouth the media gives him primetime coverage - like during the debate during the confidence motion, the terrorism debate, whenever he goes to campaign anywhere. I think this does not bode well for the BJP, especially in the future. In 2014, the BJP will not have a national leader to project against Rahul Gandhi, Advaniji will be too old to run for PM again. I think there are 2 things the BJP should do. One, they should completely ignore Rahul Gandhi, treat him like a kid who doesnât know what heâs talking about and not take issue with him ever. Whenever anyone challenges him, we are increasing his stature as a respected national leader, which he is not. This is true even in the unlikely event of the Congress projecting him as the PM candidate for this election. Secondly, the BJP should actively start projecting its younger national candidates with an eye on 2014, so that we can project a PM candidate then. Rahul Gandhi will almost for certain be the Congressâ candidate then.
Some Ideas
1) Early declaration of candidates and manifesto- candidates for all seats should be declared as soon as possible - latest by Jan 30. This will allow them to draft their constituency campaign plan, their constituency manifesto and they can start campaigning early. This will also help in quelling dissidents is any, in these seats. The rebel factor is what cost us in Rajasthan, we should not let that happen again.
2) Rath Yatra by Advaniji - I think Mr. Advani should carry out a Rath Yatra throughout the country to increase the vote share of the BJP. This will especially help in mobilizing the core Hindutva votebank, and can help in getting out the BJPs message to the voters early. This can be used to highlight the misrule of the Congress led UPA. I think this would go a long way in increasing our seats in the next election. Also other national leaders too should conduct yatras - Modiji, Rajnath Singhji. We should also actively involve our state leaders and have them conduct similar yatras in their states - Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, Yeddyurapa, B C Khanduri and the state leaders in all other states. Yatras ensure constant media coverage and will help in getting the message of the BJP out.
3) Youth and Women leaders - the BJP needs to secure large number of youth and women votes. This is actually an area where the Congress might have an advantage because of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi. However, especially with youth, the BJP should try and project itself as the original party with a difference. Youth morchas should be out in full swing campaigning and youth candidates should be given center stage. The same is true of the women leaders in the party. The party should unilaterally implement the 33% reservation of seats for women - that will show the true colours of the other parties which claim to work for equality of women. The party can give about 30% tickets to women, 30% to youth (below 40) and the rest can be given to the party elders, especially those who are sure of winning their seats.
Jai Hind. Hope the NDA wins 300 seats and wipes out the Gandhi Family Inc.
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Lok Sabha 09 state by state seat analysis and ideas
Taken from LK Advani.in Portal written by Shri.Raghav Ramachandran
Very Incisive and Exhaustive Findings -cum-Recommendations.
ââââââââââââââââââââââââââââââ
I have gone through the results of the last elections and put down my predictions on a state basis for the upcoming elections based on the constituency results last time (which can be seen at the election commission website) and the state and national factors. This is what I have concluded.
State 2004 2009
NDA UPA 3rd Others NDA UPA 3rd Others
Haryana 1 9 0 0 6 4 0 0
Punjab 11 2 0 0 11 2 0 0
JK 0 2 1 3 1 1 3 1
Uttarakhand 3 1 0 1 4 1 0 0
UP 10 9 19 42 10 8 44 18
Bihar 11 29 0 0 16 23 1 0
HP 1 3 0 0 2 2 0 0
Meghalaya 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Assam 4 9 0 1 11 2 0 1
Sikkim 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Arunachal 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
Nagaland 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Tripura 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0
Jharkhand 1 12 1 0 5 8 1 0
Mizoram 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Manipur 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
WB 0 6 35 1 0 7 27 8
Orissa 18 3 0 0 16 5 0 0
Karnataka 18 8 2 0 20 6 2 0
Tamil Nadu 0 32 4 4 0 13 3 24
Kerala 0 1 15 4 0 6 11 3
AP 0 29 5 8 1 17 15 9
Goa 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
Chattisgarh 10 1 0 0 9 2 0 0
Maharasthra 25 22 0 1 29 18 0 1
MP 25 4 0 0 22 7 0 0
Guj 14 12 0 0 15 11 0 0
Rajasthan 21 4 0 0 19 6 0 0
Delhi 1 6 0 0 2 5 0 0
UTs 1 4 0 1 1 4 0 1
Total 178 211 84 71 203 161 109 71
NDA = BJP + JD(U) + SS + INLD + SAD + AGP + BJD
UPA = Congress + PMK + DMK + NCP + JMM + RJD + LJP + IUML
3rd Front = BSP + TDP + JD(S) + NC + Left + RLD
Others = SP + AIADMK + TMC + TRS + Praja Rajyam + DMDK + MDMK + Smaller parties and Independents
I have gone through the state and constituency wise results last time and have tried to factor in the events since 2004 to come to the numbers above. According to my calculations, the NDA gains about 25 seats, the UPA looses about 50 and the 3rd Front gains about 25. I think my prediction will be correct to around a 5% error (about 25 seats may move around).
The Main conclusion here is that the BJP will be the single largest party, the NDA the single largest alliance, but will still be nowhere close to forming the next government. We need atleast 70 seats more to be able to do that. This is why I believe we actively need to get more allies before the election, otherwise it will be very difficult to get partners after the election.
If the results come out as above, a very real possibility is a 3rd front govt formed with outside support of the UPA (usual argument of keeping out âcommunal forcesâ) with Mayawati as PM. They would have the numbers to form the government.
Some other combinations I have thought about :
1) If the Congress and SP tie up in UP, which they might given both parties are weak and BSP is very strong, the numbers could change dramatically. In UP the numbers would then be NDA-8, BSP+RLD-35, Cong+SP-37. This would make the total numbers NDA-201, UPA - 190, 3rd front - 100. The UPA is now much stronger and can seek out allies to form the government. The BJP will be nearly decimated in UP and Mayawati too will be severely challenged.
2) In a post poll scenario, it is very possible that the Left and SP will support the UPA in forming a government. The Left would demand the removal of Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram from the posts of PM and FM which the Congress would gladly agree to form the government. The Congress will install Rahul Gandhi as PM and function with Left support.
3) If the Congress gets more allies from the 3rd Front / Others category, they can increase their numbers to about 200 and be in a good position to form the government.
4) Most importantly, if the Congress projects Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate, that alone will give them about 25-35 seats more and they will be in a comfortable position to form the government, with support of some allies.
Given all these numbers, the conclusion is that we are nowhere close to forming the government without many many more allies. The party is a non-entity in the vital big states of WB, TN, AP, Kerala which together have 144 seats and a very small player in UP which has 80 seats. We need to actively pursue allies in these states and try to bring the numbers of our pre-poll alliance to atleast 240. Only then can we hope to form the government in a post poll scenario.
Many people have commented in other posts that the party should try to expand its base in these states without allies. While I strongly favour the party expanding itself, in our multi party system it is very difficult for a party to make inroads in states where it has no presence. The party has about 8% in Kerala, 3% in TN and similar single digit numbers in AP and WB. A party which truly claims to be a national party cannot be a nonâentity in about 200 out of 543 seats and cannot even hope to form a government.
I believe allies our essential. We must look to the following allies
1) AP - TRS ( agreement on Telengana) and Praja Rajyam. We can score in the Telengana region with the TRS help. Chiranjeeviâs party will have a vote share of about 10% due to his image (DMDK in TN got a vote share of 10% in the first election due to Vijaykanth). 10% will not give the Praja Rajyam any seats however. If we have an alliance of TRS-BJP-Praja Rajyam, the alliance can win about 10-15 of the 42 seats in AP. Also in a post poll scenario, the party can look to the TDP to give outside support to the government, if the situation arises. The BJP is strong in the coastal areas and can try to score a couple of seats here.
2) TN - The party is a non-entity in this state. We only have a 3% vote share in the state and cannot even hope to win a single seat on our own. We need to ally wherever possible. We can try and ally with the DMDK which will have a 10-14% vote share. The alliance might be able to win a few seats. The BJP should still try to form an alliance with the AIADMK which is likely to perform very well in the next elections. Even though the AIADMK recently allied with the Left, after the elections we can try to win them over. If we can get Rajnikanth to publicly support the party, it would greatly increase our voteshare and our chances of getting seats and allies. We also have to use favourable media like Tughlaq to spread our ideas. Other parties like the MDMK are also potential allies.
3) Kerala - The party has a 7% voteshare in the state, concentrated in a couple of seats. We can try and win these seats, though we would still need allies in the state which is a stronghold of the Congress and the Left. We can try to find some local parties and ally with them to get the votes - even a couple of seats from this state would be a great achievment nationally speaking. This is a southern state the party can actually try to penetrate on its own in the future.
4) WB - Another state which is a Left stronghold. The Left is likely to lose seats due to Nandigram, Singur etc. The Congress and the TMC are most likely to gain. The BJP should try to patch up with Mamata Banerjee and get her back on board, atleast after the elections. The BJP should try and penetrate the state in seats in the outskirts of the state.
5) North Eastern States- Barring Assam, the other NE states contribute 10 seats. The BJP should tie together all the non-congress non-left parties in these states and win them over to the NDA. This would be a great help in reaching our goal of 272, and expanding ourselves in this region for future elections.
In all other states, the BJP is in a good position. In MP and Jharkhand, the BJP can try and reach out to Uma Bharathi and Babulal Marandi. Other dissidents like in Gujarat, UP, Rajasthan need to be brought back amicably to score well.
The BJP is in a good position in Northern, Western and Central India barring UP. The party should strengthen itself in these areas and try to win an overwhelming majority of the seats in order to form the next government.
Overall I think we are not in as good a position as we should be. I think we need to actively start campaigning now to do well next year.
Some worries
1) A very plausible outcome of the elections, if the results are approximately as above is the formation of the NDA government with Mayawati either giving outside support or as Deputy PM. While this is not a nice thing to think about, we should keep this in mind. Like I mentioned before, the 3rd front might get enough seats to be able to demand the PMs post - maybe Advaniji as PM for half the term and Maywati for the other half - the Jammu Kashmir - Karnataka model. I sincerely hope this outcome does not arise.
2) Rahul Gandhi - I believe that Rahul Gandhiâs so called âyouth appealâ does not extend beyond the traditional Congress party vote base of Gandhi family sycophants, and their youth. However, this does form a significant portion of votes in the country and gives credence to the Congressâs claim of Rahul Gandhi being a ânational leaderâ. Moreover the biased media seems hell bent on projecting him in as good light as possible, as the saviour of the country. He does not give interviews or press conferences, and does not deviate from script so that he does not appear foolish - and the media love that. So every time he opens his mouth the media gives him primetime coverage - like during the debate during the confidence motion, the terrorism debate, whenever he goes to campaign anywhere. I think this does not bode well for the BJP, especially in the future. In 2014, the BJP will not have a national leader to project against Rahul Gandhi, Advaniji will be too old to run for PM again. I think there are 2 things the BJP should do. One, they should completely ignore Rahul Gandhi, treat him like a kid who doesnât know what heâs talking about and not take issue with him ever. Whenever anyone challenges him, we are increasing his stature as a respected national leader, which he is not. This is true even in the unlikely event of the Congress projecting him as the PM candidate for this election. Secondly, the BJP should actively start projecting its younger national candidates with an eye on 2014, so that we can project a PM candidate then. Rahul Gandhi will almost for certain be the Congressâ candidate then.
Some Ideas
1) Early declaration of candidates and manifesto- candidates for all seats should be declared as soon as possible - latest by Jan 30. This will allow them to draft their constituency campaign plan, their constituency manifesto and they can start campaigning early. This will also help in quelling dissidents is any, in these seats. The rebel factor is what cost us in Rajasthan, we should not let that happen again.
2) Rath Yatra by Advaniji - I think Mr. Advani should carry out a Rath Yatra throughout the country to increase the vote share of the BJP. This will especially help in mobilizing the core Hindutva votebank, and can help in getting out the BJPs message to the voters early. This can be used to highlight the misrule of the Congress led UPA. I think this would go a long way in increasing our seats in the next election. Also other national leaders too should conduct yatras - Modiji, Rajnath Singhji. We should also actively involve our state leaders and have them conduct similar yatras in their states - Vasundhara Raje, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Raman Singh, Yeddyurapa, B C Khanduri and the state leaders in all other states. Yatras ensure constant media coverage and will help in getting the message of the BJP out.
3) Youth and Women leaders - the BJP needs to secure large number of youth and women votes. This is actually an area where the Congress might have an advantage because of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi. However, especially with youth, the BJP should try and project itself as the original party with a difference. Youth morchas should be out in full swing campaigning and youth candidates should be given center stage. The same is true of the women leaders in the party. The party should unilaterally implement the 33% reservation of seats for women - that will show the true colours of the other parties which claim to work for equality of women. The party can give about 30% tickets to women, 30% to youth (below 40) and the rest can be given to the party elders, especially those who are sure of winning their seats.
Jai Hind. Hope the NDA wins 300 seats and wipes out the Gandhi Family Inc.