BJP Future - 6

[ramana]

Op-ed in Pioneer, 9 Jan., 2009

<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Advani moves into top gear

Kalyani Shankar

Despite problems within the BJP and the party’s troubled relations with its allies in the NDA, LK Advani is fast emerging as the leading contender for the Prime Minister’s office. With the RSS giving him full power, he should not find the race too difficult to win

<b>The RSS has given a carte blanche to NDA prime ministerial candidate and senior BJP leader LK Advani.</b> Although Mr Advani has been a pragmatic leader and a real force who built the party from a scratch, the number one position had always eluded him. Until last year he remained the second in the party after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. <b>His endorsement by the NDA as its prime ministerial candidate gave Mr Advani the first boost he needed for the big job.</b>

What has led to the RSS giving a free hand to Mr Advani after forcing him to step down from the president’s post three years ago on the Jinnah issue? Mr Rajnath Singh, who succeeded Mr Advani, has been unable to assert full authority despite the backing of the RSS. Now a patient Advani seems to have won back the full confidence of the RSS and made the Sangh Parivar realise its mistake.

<b>Mr Advani’s game plan to reach 7, Race Course Road is based on a simple calculation. Since 1989 the BJP has won in 297 Lok Sabha constituencies on its own in one election or the other. Similarly, the NDA allies have won in 64 constituencies. Together, the total goes up to 361. If the NDA manages to get even 272, it will be able to form the next Government.</b>

But despite the full backing of the Sangh Parivar, there are too many ifs and buts as problems in the BJP and with its allies in the NDA are too complex. Mr Advani knows he does not have a magic wand.

Mr Advani is not quite the same as he was in the 1990s when he was riding the Ram Rath Yatra wave. His authority then was unassailable. Now there are three perceived power centres within the party. One is his own and the second is that of Mr Rajnath Singh. The third is the growing clout of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

Moreover, strong leaders have emerged in some of the BJP-ruled States and they need to be factored in. Also, he has to curb indiscipline and groupism.

<b>The recent electoral losses in Rajasthan and Delhi are examples of internal sabotage and indiscipline. The BJP’s victory in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are examples of how the full backing of the RSS can help the party.</b>

On the external front, Mr Advani will have to put together a viable coalition.<b> Gone are the days of 24 partners in the NDA as it has shrunk to just half a dozen. The main task is to hold the NDA together and look for new allies. </b>The BJP’s relationship with the JD(U) is seen as troubled and Mr Nitish Kumar is fastr acquiring a larger than life image in Bihar. There are strains in the BJP’s ties with the BJD in Orissa. The BJP does not have much presence in the south, except Karnataka, where it is in power.


The Left parties are ahead of the BJP <b>in both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu where they have forged alliances with the TDP and the AIADMK — both were in the NDA earlier. In the Hindi belt, the BJP has no allies in Uttar Pradesh, except perhaps the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Mr Ajit Singh. In Maharashtra. things are not looking very good following the split in the Shiv Sena. With the Trinamool Congress leaving the NDA, the BJP does not have an ally in West Bengal.</b> One thing which is of concern to the party is that despite its good performance in the recent Assembly polls, smaller and regional parties are not attracted to the BJP.

Though options are open for parties like the AIADMK, the TDP, the BSP and other smaller parties in the post-poll scenario, Mr Advani has much to do on the building up of alliances. There is some consolation in the fact that the UPA is in no better position as its allies are getting weaker by the day.

<b>About 100 million first-time voters will participate in this year’s general election. That is a staggering number. More than two-thirds of Indian are aged 35 or below. </b>Will Mr Advani connect with young voters?

Mr Advani’s strategists have decided to clone the campaign style of US President-elect Barack Obama. They are studying Mr Obama’s speeches and slogans, Websites, campus outreach programme and rhetoric of change. Mr Advani’s solace could be that the ruling UPA has not announced any young prime ministerial candidate so far. Had this opportunity come to him earlier, probably he could have faced it much more comfortably.

Finally, Mr Advani’s past may also haunt him. <b>The Liberhan Commission report is likely to come out before the general election which may or may not give a clean chit to Mr Advani in the Babri Masjid demolition case. </b>

<b>But despite the problems withing the BJP and with its allies, things are not that bad for Mr Advani. After all the NDA led by Mr Advani has its own political space and this cannot be wished away.</b> In politics one week is a long time. There are at least three months before the Lok Sabha poll is held. If things go the NDA way, Mr Advani will have the last laugh and leave his critics looking silly.

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Whats with BS Shekawat of Rajasthan? Looks like its not enough that he sabotaged the BJP there.