Bomb Blasts In India - 1

[acharya]

These blasts appear to be the work of a jihadi network that has graduated from their mentor's school and who are now trying their own thing.

The 1980s analogy I think about is vis-a-vis the Khalistani terrorists and their relationship with TSP. The Khalistanis went into their own after a few key terrorist leaders learned all the tricks of the trade from the ISI. AFter that, TSP did not necessarily order specific hits but did liase with key leaders when there was a specific need for either party. At the same time, the understanding was that the Khalistanis would escalate and de-escalate based on the mood of the TSP establishment.

Similarly, TSP has used the post 2003 space to train and graduate key SIMI leaders and bomb makers. Now those guys have the ability to wreak chaos on their own. However, they (SIMI et. al) know which side their bread is buttered and will oblige TSP when the signs from Pindi call for an escalation. The increased violence in J&K, border firings, increased press coverage of LeT/JeM leaders etc. all point to a conscious decision by TSPA/ISI to escalate things on their eastern front. My bet is that they did not like the Indian response to the Kabul embassy attack and want to take it to the next level.

To the extent that one can think along the ISI/jihadi lines, one can sense that the next escalation will be either a mass casualty attack conducted directly by TSPian LeT assets or it will be a on a national symbol like the IIT or Corporate HQ or even a nuclear power plant.