Initially before the polls, the prediction was 110 for JDU+BJP. It may have to get some independents help to form the government. What that means is that reality wise they are supposed to work hard for simple majority.
If JDU gets 100+ seats (it is actually an impossiblity), then entire Indian election is an open and absolute farce. It is like the WWF show on the TV. It is possible only if EVMs are raped. And then if that thing really happens then who are we to predict what BJP gets. BJP gets based on the story written by those who wrote 100+ for JDU. Unless BJP has a hand in the story writing the hopes of JDU as long term partner in NDA is coming to an end.
Even the ardent JDU fans that I know are saying that if JDU gets 100+ there is possibility that Nitish may die of heart attack. But see the pollsters are churning 160 on one day and 180 on other day.
Now I will certaily tell you one thing - If INC cooks ups such a grand scale victory for Nitish in Bihar, Indian politics will have a sea change EVMs or no EVMs. Yadavs are not some 2% whining junk. They are deciders of future politics. What INC is doing today will break all shackles of Yadav+Mulla coalition in both Bihar and UP. They will for survival & izzat instnicts will allign with whoever to defeat INC games. It could help BJP in UP. INC knowingly or un-knowingly is going to untite OBCs+BCs with Forward castes. That is a deadly combo.
I really think these are all just psy-ops and not reality as I do not think INC is suddenly that foolish in its calculations.
Speculates if Nitesh Kumar will get enough seats to form govt by himself. Why would he do that? What advantage is there in kicking the ladder you used to climb the wall? And this depite the vituperative language used by yuvraj against Nitesh?
[quote name='ramana' date='11 November 2010 - 05:57 PM' timestamp='1289515788' post='109200']
Any Bihar updates?
[/quote]
That is the beauty of extremely elongated election schedule. The elections will become low key and interested will keep away from watching the political and electoral situation. The educated become busy in their lives so that the percentages going to polling stations will be low. The mobilized ones become the largest chunk in the whoever votes. To me it does not make any sense to have state elections in seven phases. It just looks to be a best weapon to manipulate.
Coming back to Bihar elections:
It is difficult to analyze the winner if the EVMs are seriously manipulated. The question of NDA victory is not really being discussed. It is concluded that NDA will win but the questions and speculation/analysis is about the seat margin that NDA partners will get. ( In 2004 LS NDA was in the same situation until it lost <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> )
From my understanding, NDA did not/will not get substantial votes from Yadavs+related backward castes and also from Muslims. If we go by that logic NDA should get a comfortable simple majority like 115 to 125 seats.
However, certain media outlets and media persons are throwing numbers like 160 to 180 for NDA. They are even putting JDU itself getting 95 which is very near to the borderline. To me JDU getting 95 or 100 is just one of the two:
(1) EVMs are completely rigged beyond anyone can even imagine ( it is like the fake wrestling show WWF)
(2) INC is running a psy-ops campaign using Nielsen and media outlets so that BJP could become apprehensive and spoil JDU's chances in certain constituencies so that NDA will not win comfortably.
I tend to side on (2). Here is my reasoning:
For a while let us assume that NDA gets 160 (JDU-100 and BJP-60). The remaing 83 has to be split between independents, Laloo, Paswan and INC which could be 10,38,15,20 respectively.
In reality this kind of result is advantageous to BJP. Nitish going into secular mould using congress and others is out of question. What is the advantage for Nitish to go out of NDA and be part of UPA? Is he going to be a PM? Why would he leave a margin of 160 and settle for a margin of 125 with blackmailing independents and INC? Laloo becomes too vulenerable and he will leave his mullah-giri politics and he may be willing to extend his hand to BJP (BJP folks hate Laloo and that is a different aspect). I don't think Nitish is a fool though not a reliable one for NDA. In fact by sticking to NDA, he could be a consensus PM candidate in case UPA-2 breaks up as he is the one acceptable to sickular types in NDA+ (TDP, *DMK types)
I did not analyze seat-by-seat this time but from my point of view NDA will get a simple majority and will continue to rule the state in the same fashion. Nitish would definitely try to keep BJP as junior as possible in the cabinet but beyond that I don't see any dramatic shifts.
Two caution points regarding Bihar:
(1) If BJP or JDU fell for the psy-ops and ditched each other is certain constituencies, then the government will be shaky. I do not expect this unless under this garb, EVMs are manipulated. No analysis is useful if EVM rigging has to be taken into consideration.
(2) BJP in Bihar is a substantial forward caste party. Brahmins, bhoomihars, kayasts are solidly with BJP. These folks are politically savvy and do not like to be in the "second fiddle" position for a long time. Since 1989, they really either became irrelevant during Laloo times or really in "second fiddle" situation under Nitish. I don't expect them to have a lot of patience and continue in the same situation under Nitish again. We have to see what could be their plans.
I will not worry too much about Bihar but am very interested in TN, AP and Maha. Next two months will be really interesting.
Looks like the advisors close to RG are coming up with these grandiose plans in order to come close to RG. Wonder what RG will do to these advisors when these plans do not work out.
Looking back the Congress initiated problems for BJP in Karnataka and Gujarat in July might have been the handiwork of those behind the grandiose plans of electing RG as the PM in 2011.
Given the developements in Gujarat, Karnataka and now UP, Bihar, MH, TN, those plans look a bit quixotic. The desperate measure is to attack the RSS.
If I were RSS or BJP strategy team member, I will expect all the worse and worst ahead. This is no rocket science and it is just the trend analysis. However, BJP just needs to be focussed on making INC lose in each of the state one-by-one. No ego or no principles of sangh are necessary or required too. The focus should be just getting INC out of power.
If in TN BJP can ensure that INC is not part of the winning combo then that is a great acheivement. It could be that INC+JAYA go to polls together and that is also fine if at a later date use either DMK or AIDMK to destabilize UPA.
We can talk a lot about AP after December <img src='http://www.india-forum.com/forums/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />
We need to see the differentiation between actual exit polls versus studies. The Exit polls seems reasonable. If the final outcome is inline with the exit polls then I consider the polls are fair. If the final outcome matches CNN-IBN number of 200+ NDA then this time I am going to take a stand that polls are absolutely manipulated using all means. I will even go on to say that the news are planted ahead to justify the outcome. Let us see what happen on 24th.
[url="http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_jdu-bjp-combine-headed-for-clear-victory-in-bihar-polls_1469625"]Exit Polls of Bihar[/url]
Quote:Exit polls at the final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections today predicted a clear victory for the JD(U)-BJP combine.
While the CNN-IBN-The Week post poll study projected that the JD(U)-BJP alliance will sweep the polls with 185-201 seats, a Star AC Nielson exit poll predicted that Nitish Kumar-led NDA will get 150 seats.
An exit poll, conducted by CVoter, projected JD(U)-BJP combine coming back to power in Bihar. It said the combine will get 142-54 seats.
The CNN-IBN-The Week post poll study projection claimed that NDA will emerge victorious with 185-201 seats out of the total 243 assembly seats.
The CNN-IBN-The Week post poll study projected JD (U)-BJP combine emerging as the single largest alliance in Bihar with 46% vote share in its kitty followed by RJD-LJP alliance at a distant 27% and Congress at merely 9%t as the sixth and final final phase of polling comes to an end.
The Lalu Prasad-led RJD-LJP alliance was predicted to be gaining 22-32 seats while Congress gain between 6-12 seats. Independents, Left parties and others will end up with 9-19 seats, the CNN-IBN-The Week post poll study projected.
Star AC Nielson exit poll predicted that RJD-LJP combine will get 57 seats out of a total 243 with a loss of seven while Congress will stood at 15 and others at 21.
CVoter exit poll projected that RJD-LJP alliance will remain at a distant second to NDA with their tally ranging between 59 and 71 while Congress coming in third place will get 12-18 seats.
According to the CNN-IBN-The Week exit poll, JD (U) chief Nitish Kumar was way ahead of his rivals in popularity as the chief minister of the state.
Nitish kumar was preferred as the Chief Minister by 54 per cent of voters as the man in the top office for a consecutive second term while Lalu-Rabri remained far behind him with only 28% preferring "either of them", the exit poll claimed.
Nitish Kumar's popularity has been increasing over last few years since 2004 reaching at all time high with 60 per cent in 2009.
However, Rabri Devi-Lalu Prasad as the choice for the post of chief minister has not changed significantly in all these years and has stayed between 25-30% as it was in the past, the study claimed.
The post poll study claimed that not only Kumar but his government too was riding a high in its popularity in Bihar with 60% of voters suggesting that they want his government for a second term in the state.
20% of voters, however, wanted a change in government of the state.
[quote name='Muppalla' date='13 November 2010 - 07:32 PM' timestamp='1289694252' post='109227']
If in TN BJP can ensure that INC is not part of the winning combo then that is a great acheivement. It could be that INC+JAYA go to polls together and that is also fine if at a later date use either DMK or AIDMK to destabilize UPA.
[/quote]
On its own, BJP has to aim for 25% of seats be it TN Assembly or General elections.
[url="http://janamejayan.wordpress.com/2010/11/21/dr-subramanian-swamy-and-tamilnadu-politics/"][size="5"]Dr.Subramanian Swamy and Tamilnadu politics[/size][/url]
November 21, 2010 by janamejayan
In Tamilnadu the three parties viz. Congress, BJP and Janatha Party cannot win a single seat if they stand alone. Among these three the TNCC has some following and also has some clout flowing from the parent party namely the AICC that is ruling the centre. So the TNCC is sought out both by the DMK and the AIADMK. Though AIADMK has been out of power for long and had been poached by the DMK of some of its important leaders, Jaya is still formidable and if there is a one on one fight between her and Karunanidhi she would certainly win. In these years of rule since the ouster of Jaya from power Karunanidhi has grown very arrogant that is clearly being dissented. He is extremely corrupt and that is clearly surfacing thanks to Balu, Maran and Raja. These things loosen Karunanidhiââ¬â¢s hold on the masses and strain his relations with the Congress.
In Tamilnadu Dr.Subramanian Swamy the lone Brahmin politician in a State of anarchic non-Brahminism is a dark shadow that casts a pall of gloom on all political parties. That is the formidableness of Dr.Subramanian Swamy. In this State the Congress is a leaderless party for the cadres there keep themselves busy doing ââ¬Ësirachedhamââ¬â¢ of every group leader. The Janatha Party on the other hand is a party with a gigantic leader of international stature. The BJP is both leaderless and cadreless since the death of Kumaramangalam.
In todayââ¬â¢s situation, Karunanidhi is awaiting Lord Yama while his kin are openly fighting to finish each other yet Karunanidhi is dreaming to keep his flock together and hold on to his alliance with the Congress. The TNCC has been against the DMK but the AICC is for the DMK though there is a definite section in the AICC that is uncomfortable with the defiant and overly corrupt DMK ministers.
The Congress has been weakened since the last parliamentary election with corruption galore and price rise as their biggest achievement. They need allies who would make up for the deficit. They are thus prone to look for a more rewarding alliance than loyalty of existing ally like the DMK.
Jaya has openly extended her olive branch to the Congress. Thus she cannot think of having alliance with the BJP. Both Jaya and the TNCC wonââ¬â¢t be averse to keep Dr.Swamy with them and especially in todayââ¬â¢s context he would play a cream on their pot with his important successes on Ramasethu, on 2G Scam and on the EVM but Sonia would be the stubling block since Dr. Swamy is seen as the Parasurama out to destroy the female form of Kaartaveerya-arjuna called Antonia Maino aka Sonia Gandhi.
And in all these important fights Dr. Swamy had kept his focus on Sonia and her family alone and not on the Congressmen. He had continued to cultivate his pleasant relationship with the bureaucracy most of whom have admired him and have seen him as their solace in times of distress. They played their effective role of support when Dr.Swamy was cornered and attacked by the Christian-DMK-LTTE allaince at Madras High Court. Those ruffian gangs were smashed on that day and that effectively silenced their clout thanks to the loyal beauracracy. Dr. Swamy was an important ally of the Supreme Court and they were able to use him when the UPA tried to marginalize the judiciary. Yet Dr. Swamy showed his acumen in accepting PMOââ¬â¢s affidavit thus sparing him from being the target of the Supreme Court.
In the political free-for-all taking place in Tamilnadu Dr.Swamy would prompt on Jayalalitha to find a ââ¬ËMooppanaarââ¬â¢ hiding among the Congressmen in Tamilnadu and goad him to take on Sonia and Chidambaram. This way she can be spared of falling into the net of Sonia. Besides both the Congress and the DMK have become weak since the last election. Two weak would not make one strong. These facts would also enable her to garner all the parties including the BJP to her side and isolate Karunanidhi-Sonia axis as her opposition. This is the inevitable scenerio!
To the surprise of the pundits the Age of Dr.Swamy has begun!
Also read:
[url="http://janamejayan.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/the-age-of-dr-subramanian-swamy-has-begun/"]THE AGE OF DR. SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY HAS BEGUN[/url]
[url="http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/NDA-to-win-around-170-seats-BJP/713882/"]NDA to win around 170 seats : BJP[/url]
Quote:Patna The NDA will win about 170 of the total 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly elections and form the government once again under Nitish Kumar, state BJP president C P Thakur claimed today.
"The increase in the polling percentage reflected the people's acknowledgment of the developmental work under the NDA during the past five years," he told reporters here.
The people, Thakur said, were for giving another term to Nitish Kumar and his deputy Sushil Kumar Modi to help Bihar emerge as the most developed state in India by 2015.
Dr.Swamy had stood upto the secularists and anti-Hindus and made achievements that true Hindus can be thankful. What does Dr.Swamy-bashers have to their credit? Being followers of Hajpayee perhaps?!
' /> )