http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/i...-poll.html
Author: Kanchan Gupta
Looking beyond the election results
There are three kinds of analyses in the wake of elections in India. The first pertains to the bogus commentary of know-all armchair intellectuals who have little or no idea of social, political, economic and cultural dynamics at play which determine the outcome of an election. Thereââ¬â¢s no permanent matrix that decides the manner in which these dynamics collide and collude, which explains why predicting election results with a degree of certitude is virtually impossible in our country. What could hold true for panchayat or civic elections would be untrue for Assembly elections; a discernible trend or voting pattern in Assembly polls could be entirely missing in a general election. Indeed, thereââ¬â¢s nothing universal or lasting about that trend in either an Assembly or a general election ââ¬â or, for that matter, across States in any election.
What about ââ¬Ëvoter moodââ¬â¢ which can swing the final tally, you would ask. Yes, thereââ¬â¢s something called ââ¬Ëvoter moodââ¬â¢ and there are elections when opinion and choice cut across voter segments, swamping other dynamics that would normally influence the results. For example, the watershed Assembly election in West Bengal last summer witnessed a storm of anti-Left sentiment demolishing the CPI(M)ââ¬â¢s apparently invincible Red Fort. It would be tempting to suggest that a similar storm has just raged through Uttar Pradesh. But comparisons are best avoided, not the least because there are no similarities between the winners in West Bengal, Ms Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress, and those in Uttar Pradesh, Mr Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party. We could turn that around and point out that the CPI(M) and the BSP are as poles apart as two political organisations could ever be. Hence, to look for a template and hold it up as a standard would be foolish. Such commentary as is offered by armchair intellectuals may appear to be profound, but beneath the icing of profundity lies bunk which is best ignored.
The second kind of analysis is that which is undertaken by the strategists of political parties. Winners and losers both try to unravel the reasons why they won or lost an electoral race which they had hoped to win. Those who wish to remain in the race and win it when it is held again are ruthless in their inquiry, more so while trying to figure out what went wrong and what could have been done but was left undone. Thatââ¬â¢s the way it should be.
After all, elections come and go but parties remain, as does their legitimate aspiration to come to power through the electoral process. An honest, rigorous post-election analysis can provide an insight into problems that were left unresolved as well as offer suggestions as to how to solve them during the interregnum between polls. Clever political parties with a long-term perspective and smart strategists would not shun such an exercise.
Sadly, political parties which view themselves as clever and flaunt smart strategists often cut corners while analysing their performance in an election, especially when they have performed, to put it mildly, below expectation. Whatââ¬â¢s the use of self-flagellation, they would argue. But analysis and introspection leading to course-correction is not self-flagellation. Nor is there any percentage in being cautious not to tread upon toes or bruise the feelings of those who have failed miserably to deliver what matters the most in any election ââ¬â results.
This may sound cynical, but if the truth is to be brushed under the carpet (for example, as is being done by the election managers and strategists of the Congress) then a political party may as well step aside and give up fighting elections. In other words, it should not aspire to come to power. Mr LK Advani, the brilliant strategist who fashioned the BJPââ¬â¢s great leap forward after it was decimated to two seats in the 1984 general election, would often say that to win an election a party needs two things: A cutting edge campaign and a killer instinct. As is well known, he proved his assessment right. What is less known is that he crafted his strategy on the basis of an exhaustive, constituency-by-constituency report that he had commissioned after the partyââ¬â¢s 1984 debacle.
The third kind of analysis is that which is offered by politicians whose parties may not have been direct participants, or at least major players, in an election. Outsider opinion has its own utility and should be listened to with an open mind and both ears. That brings me to the views voiced by senior Trinamool Congress leader and Minister for Railways Dinesh Trivedi during an interaction with the editors of The Indian Express a day after the results of the latest round of Assembly elections were declared. Asked if the Trinamool Congress, a major ally of the Congress in the UPA and which has been straining at the leash for some time now, would push for a mid-term election in view of the Congress coming a cropper, he said, ââ¬ÅWhy only TMC? I feel after yesterdayââ¬â¢s resultsââ¬Â¦ If I was Samajwadi Party, I would be very happy to have a general election tomorrow so I can increase my tally because I have the momentum.
The Trinamool Congress may also be happy to have a mid-term poll now rather than two years later. If there is a perception that there is an anti-Congress feeling (in the country) then, obviously, even BJP would want an election now. So if everybody wants an election, there will be an election.ââ¬Â
At one level, thatââ¬â¢s a simplistic assertion. After all, if everybody wants an election, there is every reason why the Congress wouldnââ¬â¢t want an early election. To make that happen, the Government would have to be brought down. In theory, thatââ¬â¢s not impossible; in practice, it may prove to be difficult, if not impossible. What is of interest, however, is the ââ¬Ëmomentumââ¬â¢ factor that is being sensed by regional parties which would be naturally interested in increasing their parliamentary tally. In Odisha, Mr Naveen Patnaik senses an opportunity to raise the BJDââ¬â¢s score from 14 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats in the State; in Tamil Nadu, Ms J Jayalalithaa would like to see her party occupying more than nine seats; in West Bengal, Ms Banerjee could yet ride the tide and win two-thirds or more of the 42 seats in that State; and, in Uttar Pradesh, Mr Akhilesh Yadav would be smart to push his luck and the Samajwadi Partyââ¬â¢s tally significantly up from 22 out of 80. If collectively these parties are able to raise their strength in the Lok Sabha from 64 to 100 (or possibly more), that would dramatically alter the arrangement in New Delhi.
Hopefully, both the Congress and the BJP are listening.
