01-28-2006, 07:20 PM
Geopolitical impact of India, China embrace
Sat,28 Jan, 2006 Last update: 19hrs. 00mins. IST
Manorama online
When India and China, the world's two most populous countries, which also happen to be the two most exciting economies, make a highly public pledge of turning a new year into a "friendship year", its international implications cannot be overstated.
The leaders of the two Asian giants, which together account for over 30 percent of the world population, began the year 2006 exchanging exceptionally warm pleasantries as well as with a pledge to consolidate what India's President A P J Abdul Kalam called, "the deep historical and cultural association that our two ancient civilizations have." China's response was equally sanguine as its leaders noted the "new stage of development" with the decision to establish a Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity and that their relations were set to grow in an "all-round and in-depth way".
The geopolitical impact of a Sino-Indian embrace will be enormous for the world in general and for the United States in particular.
Although historical rough edges and strong individual ambitions to acquire a global superpower status may yet prevent a seamless convergence between India and China, there is enough common ground between the two nations to forge a partnership that could seriously prevent the US from running away with the global agenda. In a development unthinkable even a decade ago the two countries have been working together to ensure their energy security.
Their state-owned oil corporations, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), on Dec 20 jointly won a bid to acquire 37 percent of Petro-Canada's stake in Syrian oilfields for $573 million.
The two rapidly rising economies' already robust and growing appetite for oil and gas is causing dramatic shifts in the world energy balance and prompting major concerns in Washington which has for decades considered controlling oil as its natural right. It is hardly surprising that the Bush administration is making major concessions in its nuclear proliferation control regime to accommodate India's civilian nuclear programmes.
The US has recognized that while individually China and India may not be close to challenging its supremacy, together they have enough muscle to act as a bulwark against American unilateralism resulting from its status as the singular superpower. It is in that context that the dramatic upswing in Sino-Indian relations ought to be viewed.
The warming bilateral ties between India and China, partly driven by a powerful utilitarian instinct on both sides, have been barely noticed as a story of consequence by the world media. It could not be that media commentators do not understand the significance of this development.
It is perhaps because they believe that the two uncomfortable neighbours will not be able to go the distance because of the inherent suspicions and overarching ambitions, especially in China's case since it sees itself as the next superpower.
The growing Sino-Indian collaboration in ensuring their energy security is also a story that has not attracted the kind of international media attention in terms of its implications. The US media has reported on how China and India are aggressively shopping around for oil fields but it has not quite covered the underlying theme of how it can affect the overall geopolitical balance.
"In 2006, the Chinese side is ready to work together with the Indian side to take the Year of China-India Friendship as an opportunity to carry forward the traditional friendship between our two countries, strengthen dialogues, exchanges and cooperation in all fields and at all levels, continuously deepen the contents of the bilateral relations, and push forward the China-India Strategic and Cooperative Partnership in an all-round and in-depth way," Chinese President Hu Jintao said.
It is rare for the Chinese leadership at any level, let alone at the highest level, to communicate such effusive views about relations with another country. That these views are about India, a country which is China's potential rival on the world stage, with which it has fought a war and which is home to the Tibetan government-in-exile, make the expression even more extraordinary.
One of the least examined consequences of the Sino-Indian rapprochement is its impact on the future of Tibet, which China annexed without much difficulty 55 years ago. Every step that India and China take together is a step away from Tibet's independent future. Tibet as a cause has lost its potency and the growing communion between India and China is serving to erode that potency even more.
If the two countries can prospect for oil and gas together, the prospects of Tibet surviving as an unresolved issue are bleak. Even though the Dalai Lama remains in good health at 70, he is aware that at that age time is not on his side. If he wants any degree of resolution of the Tibet question in his lifetime his options are becoming frighteningly narrow in view of India-China camaraderie.
Unfortunately, in the 2006 Friendship Year between the two Asian neighbours Tibet is unlikely to figure as an obstacle. The policy seems to be that neither side would talk about it with any degree of seriousness or conviction. If only Tibet was sitting on as much oil as Iraq!
Sat,28 Jan, 2006 Last update: 19hrs. 00mins. IST
Manorama online
When India and China, the world's two most populous countries, which also happen to be the two most exciting economies, make a highly public pledge of turning a new year into a "friendship year", its international implications cannot be overstated.
The leaders of the two Asian giants, which together account for over 30 percent of the world population, began the year 2006 exchanging exceptionally warm pleasantries as well as with a pledge to consolidate what India's President A P J Abdul Kalam called, "the deep historical and cultural association that our two ancient civilizations have." China's response was equally sanguine as its leaders noted the "new stage of development" with the decision to establish a Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity and that their relations were set to grow in an "all-round and in-depth way".
The geopolitical impact of a Sino-Indian embrace will be enormous for the world in general and for the United States in particular.
Although historical rough edges and strong individual ambitions to acquire a global superpower status may yet prevent a seamless convergence between India and China, there is enough common ground between the two nations to forge a partnership that could seriously prevent the US from running away with the global agenda. In a development unthinkable even a decade ago the two countries have been working together to ensure their energy security.
Their state-owned oil corporations, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), on Dec 20 jointly won a bid to acquire 37 percent of Petro-Canada's stake in Syrian oilfields for $573 million.
The two rapidly rising economies' already robust and growing appetite for oil and gas is causing dramatic shifts in the world energy balance and prompting major concerns in Washington which has for decades considered controlling oil as its natural right. It is hardly surprising that the Bush administration is making major concessions in its nuclear proliferation control regime to accommodate India's civilian nuclear programmes.
The US has recognized that while individually China and India may not be close to challenging its supremacy, together they have enough muscle to act as a bulwark against American unilateralism resulting from its status as the singular superpower. It is in that context that the dramatic upswing in Sino-Indian relations ought to be viewed.
The warming bilateral ties between India and China, partly driven by a powerful utilitarian instinct on both sides, have been barely noticed as a story of consequence by the world media. It could not be that media commentators do not understand the significance of this development.
It is perhaps because they believe that the two uncomfortable neighbours will not be able to go the distance because of the inherent suspicions and overarching ambitions, especially in China's case since it sees itself as the next superpower.
The growing Sino-Indian collaboration in ensuring their energy security is also a story that has not attracted the kind of international media attention in terms of its implications. The US media has reported on how China and India are aggressively shopping around for oil fields but it has not quite covered the underlying theme of how it can affect the overall geopolitical balance.
"In 2006, the Chinese side is ready to work together with the Indian side to take the Year of China-India Friendship as an opportunity to carry forward the traditional friendship between our two countries, strengthen dialogues, exchanges and cooperation in all fields and at all levels, continuously deepen the contents of the bilateral relations, and push forward the China-India Strategic and Cooperative Partnership in an all-round and in-depth way," Chinese President Hu Jintao said.
It is rare for the Chinese leadership at any level, let alone at the highest level, to communicate such effusive views about relations with another country. That these views are about India, a country which is China's potential rival on the world stage, with which it has fought a war and which is home to the Tibetan government-in-exile, make the expression even more extraordinary.
One of the least examined consequences of the Sino-Indian rapprochement is its impact on the future of Tibet, which China annexed without much difficulty 55 years ago. Every step that India and China take together is a step away from Tibet's independent future. Tibet as a cause has lost its potency and the growing communion between India and China is serving to erode that potency even more.
If the two countries can prospect for oil and gas together, the prospects of Tibet surviving as an unresolved issue are bleak. Even though the Dalai Lama remains in good health at 70, he is aware that at that age time is not on his side. If he wants any degree of resolution of the Tibet question in his lifetime his options are becoming frighteningly narrow in view of India-China camaraderie.
Unfortunately, in the 2006 Friendship Year between the two Asian neighbours Tibet is unlikely to figure as an obstacle. The policy seems to be that neither side would talk about it with any degree of seriousness or conviction. If only Tibet was sitting on as much oil as Iraq!