09-06-2008, 10:29 PM
Empires can be sustained for any amount of time provided the powers that be at the top of the food chain have the stamina (in various forms) to sustain the empire by outlasting any external challenges. The variables could be these:
1) Manpower.
Nations and empires that have large dominant ethnic population can sustain an empire as long as the dominant ethnic group reproduces itself. This is where the problem begins. As empires prosper, the seeking of pleasure becomes prominent. Most important of all the seeking of sex for pleasure. Nature has evolved in such a way that babies are "accidental" happenstance of sexual relations. When both men and women decide to have less children and spend more on pleasure seeking, then the eventual consequence will be decline in manpower. Once Rome became a superpower, the Romans thought all the power and grandeur would last. The orgies, the drinking, the lavishing of perties and sports was all well as long as Romans produced Roman babies but liberated Roman women either refused to have babies or had fewer babies. Number of Roman recruits for the legions slowly declined. This disease soon also gripped the Romanised "others" of the empire. Soon, the make numbers, non Romans were recruited. The slow decline began. To arrest this decline Rome had to form alliance with other powers and tribes. These alliance come with a price in its various forms. The alleigience of the alliance partner is not certain. Once a superpower resorts to forming alliance, its grandeur declines. From the perspectives of external elements, when grandeue declines, the power declines too. With that goes the economic power. Growth of rival centers of power takes place. (That is why Cincinatus was continuosly harping on the need to finish off the power of Carthege) Conquering and control of Rome becomes a tempting desire. The end soon appears on the horizon.
More than a hundred years ago, American troops went and conquered the then Spanish controlled Philipines. Though the Americans will fight the locals for some duration but it was an entirely American effort. In WW2, almost 20 million Americans were in uniform with 12 million carrying arms even if only 3 million actually saw combat. Today to sustain the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, America has to ask for soldiers El Salvador, Taiwan and Georgia among other nations. Why? Even though America's population is increasing but the dominant ethnic group which provided the bulk of the soldiers is declining in numbers. If anyone bothered to look this decline is the result of increasing wealth and prosperity.
2) Wealth.
With manpower, there also need to be enough money to pay for the men who sustain the empire. This money comes from the treasury. The treasuryâs money comes from taxes. Most of the tax comes from economic trade. In ancient times superpowers collected tributes, tax on trades in their territories and the shipping ports in the control of a power would ensure a huge loot in fees. In todayâs world it is the banking sector. A superpower exudes confidence especially if the superpower is a law and order kind. Its banks offer sanctuary for money and people from other parts of the world park their money in such safe sanctuary. Go ask the Ambanis, the Birlas and the Tatas where they keep most of their wealth? I will not be surprised if it is all in banks in the USA, England and some in Switzerland. A decline in a grandeur of power would slowly erode the confidence level of the many people whose money is sitting in the banks of the superpower. Soon there will be flight of capital. This will effect the available credit. Then, there would borrowing. If the lender is not too confident, he would lend at a higher interest rate than normal. Once this initiative shifts from the superpower to the lender, the decline is already cert ain.
Once taxes dried out, Rome had to borrow. A Rome that borrows money to sustain an empire cannot maintain many legions. It had to restrict first the size of legions and then the number of legions. Then it had to pay less for the legionaires. Then the quality men would want to serve other powers that pay higher wages than Rome. Territories undefended fall to the enemies. When you were at the top of the food chain, you cause envy and many aspiring rivals.
In my opinion multi polar world is a natural phenomena. Not all powers are going to be equal but there will be many centers of powers. The decline of Europe and America is certain unless there is an effort to increase their white population.
Someday in the future, the white population of America will become minority unless the trend is reversed. From then on majority of the technocrats, managers, financiers and other important personnels in the banking, corporate and political fields will be non-whites. While I would not doubt their capabilities, there are bound to be Jason Blairs. Would these exude the same levels of confidence from the perspective of the Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese and the Arabs who have parked trillions in the USA? I seriously doubt it. Most probably Chinese, Japanese and Taiwanese money would be going home while the Arab money would be going to some other location where they have more confidence. When this happens, there would be serious credit crunch that would put a road block on sustaining the present level of living standard. When that declines, so too the development and growth. Will there still be immigrants looking to go to America? This is long away in the future and has a potential to happen.
A superpower can maintain an empire even with brute force as long as the superpower can sustain all the elements and resources that can continuously nourish the brute force. It is all in sustainability. There is no other magic wand.
Soft power alone cannot sustain an empire. A mixture of soft and brute power can maintain an empire. Once must remember that empire is the result of power. Power is usually due to brutishness or hardness. A softy will not be an empire. May be an element of some influence.
Avram.
1) Manpower.
Nations and empires that have large dominant ethnic population can sustain an empire as long as the dominant ethnic group reproduces itself. This is where the problem begins. As empires prosper, the seeking of pleasure becomes prominent. Most important of all the seeking of sex for pleasure. Nature has evolved in such a way that babies are "accidental" happenstance of sexual relations. When both men and women decide to have less children and spend more on pleasure seeking, then the eventual consequence will be decline in manpower. Once Rome became a superpower, the Romans thought all the power and grandeur would last. The orgies, the drinking, the lavishing of perties and sports was all well as long as Romans produced Roman babies but liberated Roman women either refused to have babies or had fewer babies. Number of Roman recruits for the legions slowly declined. This disease soon also gripped the Romanised "others" of the empire. Soon, the make numbers, non Romans were recruited. The slow decline began. To arrest this decline Rome had to form alliance with other powers and tribes. These alliance come with a price in its various forms. The alleigience of the alliance partner is not certain. Once a superpower resorts to forming alliance, its grandeur declines. From the perspectives of external elements, when grandeue declines, the power declines too. With that goes the economic power. Growth of rival centers of power takes place. (That is why Cincinatus was continuosly harping on the need to finish off the power of Carthege) Conquering and control of Rome becomes a tempting desire. The end soon appears on the horizon.
More than a hundred years ago, American troops went and conquered the then Spanish controlled Philipines. Though the Americans will fight the locals for some duration but it was an entirely American effort. In WW2, almost 20 million Americans were in uniform with 12 million carrying arms even if only 3 million actually saw combat. Today to sustain the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, America has to ask for soldiers El Salvador, Taiwan and Georgia among other nations. Why? Even though America's population is increasing but the dominant ethnic group which provided the bulk of the soldiers is declining in numbers. If anyone bothered to look this decline is the result of increasing wealth and prosperity.
2) Wealth.
With manpower, there also need to be enough money to pay for the men who sustain the empire. This money comes from the treasury. The treasuryâs money comes from taxes. Most of the tax comes from economic trade. In ancient times superpowers collected tributes, tax on trades in their territories and the shipping ports in the control of a power would ensure a huge loot in fees. In todayâs world it is the banking sector. A superpower exudes confidence especially if the superpower is a law and order kind. Its banks offer sanctuary for money and people from other parts of the world park their money in such safe sanctuary. Go ask the Ambanis, the Birlas and the Tatas where they keep most of their wealth? I will not be surprised if it is all in banks in the USA, England and some in Switzerland. A decline in a grandeur of power would slowly erode the confidence level of the many people whose money is sitting in the banks of the superpower. Soon there will be flight of capital. This will effect the available credit. Then, there would borrowing. If the lender is not too confident, he would lend at a higher interest rate than normal. Once this initiative shifts from the superpower to the lender, the decline is already cert ain.
Once taxes dried out, Rome had to borrow. A Rome that borrows money to sustain an empire cannot maintain many legions. It had to restrict first the size of legions and then the number of legions. Then it had to pay less for the legionaires. Then the quality men would want to serve other powers that pay higher wages than Rome. Territories undefended fall to the enemies. When you were at the top of the food chain, you cause envy and many aspiring rivals.
In my opinion multi polar world is a natural phenomena. Not all powers are going to be equal but there will be many centers of powers. The decline of Europe and America is certain unless there is an effort to increase their white population.
Someday in the future, the white population of America will become minority unless the trend is reversed. From then on majority of the technocrats, managers, financiers and other important personnels in the banking, corporate and political fields will be non-whites. While I would not doubt their capabilities, there are bound to be Jason Blairs. Would these exude the same levels of confidence from the perspective of the Chinese, Taiwanese, Japanese and the Arabs who have parked trillions in the USA? I seriously doubt it. Most probably Chinese, Japanese and Taiwanese money would be going home while the Arab money would be going to some other location where they have more confidence. When this happens, there would be serious credit crunch that would put a road block on sustaining the present level of living standard. When that declines, so too the development and growth. Will there still be immigrants looking to go to America? This is long away in the future and has a potential to happen.
A superpower can maintain an empire even with brute force as long as the superpower can sustain all the elements and resources that can continuously nourish the brute force. It is all in sustainability. There is no other magic wand.
Soft power alone cannot sustain an empire. A mixture of soft and brute power can maintain an empire. Once must remember that empire is the result of power. Power is usually due to brutishness or hardness. A softy will not be an empire. May be an element of some influence.
Avram.