India and US - III

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[url="http://www.dailypioneer.com/239686/US-has-India-over-the-barrel.html"]US has India over the barrel[/url]



G Parthasarathy



Even as Pakistan steps up a concerted anti-India offensive on issues ranging from terrorism and Afghanistan to nuclear programme and river waters, the New Delhi establishment appears confused, divided and uncertain. Barely two days after Pakistan’s Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir described the evidence provided by India on the 26/11 outrage as mere “literature and not evidence”, the ISI’s Taliban allies struck at Indian nationals living in the heart of Kabul. Mr Bashir was reflecting the triumphalism in Pakistan over what was perceived as their diplomatic success in getting the Americans to force India to return to the dialogue table. A spokesman of the ‘Haqqani Network’, operating from across the Durand Line in North Waziristan, claimed responsibility for the Kabul attack. The ‘Haqqani Network’ had masterminded the attacks on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009.



American journalist David Sanger, who was briefed in detail of Pakistan’s links with the Taliban by the staff of the Bush Administration’s Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, writes, “Musharraf’s record of duplicity was well known (in Washington). While Kayani was a favourite of the White House, he had also been overheard — presumably on telephone intercepts — referring to the most brutal of Taliban leaders Jalaluddin Haqqani as a ‘strategic asset’.” Mr McConnell’s successor, Admiral Dennis Blair, testified on February 2 that under Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Rawalpindi continues its support of a number of Afghan Taliban groups.



All this is happening when, following the Istanbul and London conferences, Pakistan is proclaiming that it will play the predominant role in “reintegrating” the Taliban in Afghanistan’s national life and that India has no role to play in that country. One hears some influential American friends now tell Indian interlocutors that India should reduce the “salience” of its role in Afghanistan. While this may not be what the Obama Administration officially states, it is interesting that unlike Al Qaeda’s members, the Taliban’s cadre are no longer described by the Americans as “terrorists” but as “insurgents”. Mere platitudes are not enough to deal with this situation. Has the time not come to tell the Obama Administration that we are tired of listening to calls for “dialogue” and that we could review our policies on Afghanistan by reviving old links we had with Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and by charting a more independent path on relations with the Karzai Government? Should we not devise a comprehensive strategy for responding effectively to Pakistan’s efforts to ‘bleed’ us?



Pakistan has now opened a new front in its propaganda war against India. Though Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commissioner has stated that there is no evidence that India is violating the Indus Waters Treaty, national hysteria is being whipped up, led by Gen Kayani, alleging that India is deliberately denying Pakistan its legitimate share of river waters from the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. The reality is that though the IWT permits India to build storage facilities of 3.6 million acreage feet, no such facility has been built so far, enabling unimpeded flow to Pakistan. Moreover while the treaty permits India to irrigate 1.34 million acres from the western rivers, India is currently irrigating only 0.792 million acres. India would also be well-advised to undertake measures for fuller utilisation of the waters of the eastern rivers which continue to flow into Pakistan.



The Pakistani Government’s own papers make it clear that that Pakistan does not face a shortage of water (it receives 139 MAF against the total flow of 169 MAF of water from six rivers of the Indus basin), but is faced with a crisis caused by poor and inequitable utilisation, with the lower riparian Sindh and Balochistan provinces being deprived of their legitimate water requirements by the Army-dominated Punjab Province. An inter-provincial accord on water-sharing of 1991 lies in tatters because of the refusal of Punjab Province to abide by its provisions. People in Sindh Province are finding that the Indus waters barely reach Kotri Barrage and that their southern districts are experiencing salinity because of the inflow of sea water. It is time New Delhi undertook an imaginative propaganda offensive on this issue especially directed at the people of Sindh and Balochistan. Finally, Pakistan seeks to deliberately delay construction of hydro-electric projects in Jammu & Kashmir, even as it claims to be a champion of the Kashmiri people. India should go ahead with these projects undeterred by Pakistani propaganda, which will inevitably stand exposed when the issue is referred to a neutral expert under the IWT.



Precisely a week before Mr Bashir arrived in New Delhi, Mr Zamir Akram, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the Commission on Disarmament in Geneva, launched a propaganda barrage against India, claiming that it was responsible for proliferation in South Asia, that it had compelled Pakistan to go nuclear and thereafter test nuclear weapons in May 1998 by its nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998. He denounced the India-US nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions against India by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, and demanded that Pakistan be granted a similar waiver. Mr Akram conveniently ignored the fact that Pakistan had decided to go nuclear well before India’s 1974 nuclear test, that Pakistan is known to have tested a nuclear weapon on Chinese soil in 1990, and that the size, composition and nature of India’s nuclear deterrent are determined not merely by what Pakistan does, but primarily by developments in China.



South Block fails to realise that led by Gen Kayani, Pakistan’s ruling military establishment has persuaded itself that it wields huge leverage with the Obama Administration, which has set a date for commencement of troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and desperately needs Pakistan’s cooperation for a face-saving exit. New Delhi is perceived by the GHQ in Rawalpindi to lack any clear or consistent policy and appears ever-ready to meekly bend to American diktats. The Government of India has only itself to blame for allowing this impression to gain ground internationally and domestically. The decision to suddenly change direction and agree to talks between Foreign Secretaries even before the Home Minister paid a scheduled visit to Islamabad has only strengthened this impression. Unless the Union Cabinet devises a clear policy of imposing high costs for Pakistani support to terrorism against India and Indian assets abroad, we will be perceived as a nation incapable of defending our vital interests.