From Deccan.com, 1 Feb., 2005
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Congress may call for a snap poll
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New Delhi, Jan. 31: <b>The Congress is seriously contemplating a mid-term Lok Sabha election in 2006, if it succeeds in reviving the party in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The four States are the targets of the current Congress strategy directed at capturing a majority in the Lok Sabha, with party president Sonia Gandhi as Prime Minister.</b>
HRD Minister Arjun Singh is being credited with the ga-meplan to revive the party in these States as a precursor to early Lok Sabha elections. <b>The decision to disturb the coalition with the RJD in Bihar by contesting the Asse-mbly elections separately was taken by the top leadership of the Congress in a bid to âtest the watersâ in the State. </b>The results will determine the Congress strategy for UP, where sufficient indications are being given by the party, including Sonia Gan-dhi and son Rahul Gandhi, that they would like to withdraw support to the Mulayam Singh Yadav government.
<b>The Congress now appears to be a party in a hurry with the strategy of revival, as the sources put it, centering on the âstrike while the iron is hotâ assessment. The party is keen to move out of the coalition which it views as an âirksome necessityâ and cash in on the goodwill for Sonia before the vote turns away from the party.</b> The Congress is reportedly of the view that âthe national mood is in our favourâ, and wants to present itself as the alternative, minus the burden of coalition, before time changes public opinion.
<b>Interestingly, not a single Congress leader spoken to from the Centre or the States was of the view that a mid-term poll was not on the cards. All said that this was inevitable, with 2006 cited as the year for âactionâ. </b>The only difference was that wh-ile some leaders were of the view that the poll could be held along with that of West Bengal in March next year, most favoured a later date in the year. But again, all party leaders were agreed that fissures would dent the Congr-ess-Left relations before the Bengal elections. Economic policies is the other area of contention, with financial ex-perts in the Congress keen to part ways with the Left as a prerequisite for âindependentâ functioning.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is optimistic about benefiting directly from the anti-incumbency factor, whi-ch it expects will help it improve its position in the Lok Sabha elections as well. <b>In Gujarat, the Congress has decided to organise the âDandi marchâ in order to project itself as an alternative to the BJP government.</b>
<b>The Congress has also taken a decision to keep away from a minority agenda. </b>Even in Gujarat, the message of the Dandi march will be national integration and not the rehabilitation of the Muslims or the cases under trial.<b> Leaders from the regional parties in coalition said that they were aware of the Cong-ressâ new strategy, maintaining, however, that this stems from Sonia Gandhiâs desire to become Prime Minister. </b>
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Technically the next LS polls would have been in what 2004 + 5 years = 2009?
Is there a legal or constitutional basis for calling it 3 years ahead of schedule just because it fits one party's grand plan? Would be interesting to see how all this loose coalition of sundrys like Mulayam's, Laloos, Mayas, Commies etc react to this? If it's just a question of withdrawing support, what's to prevent NDA tying up with these sundries put Sonia back as leader of opposition?
It is unlikely that there will be mid-term elections that Congress can call, unless UPA breaks down. We may see the sign of the breakdown after the outcome of Bihar elections.
Any gains from the states the news mentions - Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat - are offset by the losses in the other states. In AP alone they may lose their big numbers. In UP, in four-party contesting, BJP is likely to win if Congress takes SP's votes. So whaever Congress got in last election is best possible numbers for the Congress, they may not get more than that in next elections unless they upset all regional parties like they did in AP in the last elections. Beating BJP alone is not enough.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->"She asked us to prepare ourselves for the assembly <b>and Lok Sabha polls</b>. <b>She hoped the Lok Sabha polls would be held along with the assembly elections</b>. She also asked the partymen to concentrate on solving problems facing the people," said former Union minister and senior AIADMK leader Dalit Ezhilmalai.
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In Uttar Pradesh it will be sometime before Congress can think of reaching the double digit on its own. Most probably they will fight with BSP. At this moment Mulayam looks invincible and BJP seems to have hit the bottom and still digging.
Same is the case in Bihar.Congress will not win a single seat if it fought on its own.They will have to piggyback laloo or paswan.A clearer picture will emerge after the assembly election.
They did not do all that bad in Gujrat in the last election and should not expect to do any better unless some drastic change happens.
In Madhya Pradesh they should be able to improve their tally simply because they cant do any worse.
Congress getting a majority on its own in the near future is not possible in fact they will not even reach close.
As far as Lok Sabha is concerned Congress strength will always be around what it is currently. They will not be able to make a "comeback" as Sonia is hoping. I think they are overconfident about Congress' appeal to the masses. Regional parties turned the tide for the central government in the last election.
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Feb 1 2005, 11:53 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Feb 1 2005, 11:53 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> From Deccan.com, 1 Feb., 2005
<!--QuoteBegin--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->
Congress may call for a snap poll
Â
<b>The four States are the targets of the current Congress strategy directed at capturing a majority in the Lok Sabha, with party president Sonia Gandhi as Prime Minister.</b>
...
<b> Leaders from the regional parties in coalition said that they were aware of the Cong-ressâ new strategy, maintaining, however, that this stems from Sonia Gandhiâs desire to become Prime Minister. </b>
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To me, it seems that after missing it because of citizenship issues she may not be inclined to try again regardless of the Congress numbers in LS.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Do you think Sonia wants to really really become the PM?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
She is after POWER period.
<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+Feb 17 2005, 09:15 PM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ Feb 17 2005, 09:15 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Do you think Sonia wants to really really become the PM?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
She is after POWER period. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
She has power, i.e. authority without accountability. Kingmaker is often more poweful than king.
She has enough powers as it is and without accountability. It is hard to find voice of the PM anywhere in the media. Hardly any cabinet members report to the PM. The road begins and ends at 10 Janpath for all including the PM.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->She has enough powers as it is and without accountability. It is hard to find voice of the PM anywhere in the media. Hardly any cabinet members report to the PM. The road begins and ends at 10 Janpath for all including the PM<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
She will crave for POWER which gives "Guard of honor" & Salute. [Future dictator in making]
As it stands now, it would be better if Sonia becomes PM. It would put an end to Her "Sacrifice", when she "gave up" the PM's post (the fact that she does not qualify to even be an MP does not find any mention the psec media...). Lot of people in india believe that sacrifice bit, without realising that she still runs the govt.
BTW what is the status of that case that Swamy has file in court.
They may call Mid term Poll in 2005, <!--emo&--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> Parties to watch are DMK, Lalu and Paswan.
From Deccan.com. The author is the same person who was quoted in the first post of this thread.
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b>United? Progressive? Alliance is over </b>
Solitics by Siddhartha Reddy
Sonia Gandhi turned out to be the biggest loser in this round of Assembly elections. From the high pedestal of May 2004 where she united all the anti-BJP forces, Sonia Gandhi has slipped by trying to occupy space from her allies. She has forfeited the trust and respect of her allies.
Bihar would have had Presidentâs Rule, but Laluâs support is required in Jharkhand. Sonia Gandhi has to make a quick deal to give Bihar to Lalu in exchange for support in Jharkhand, conceding big demands by Paswan. Sonia Gandhi and L K Advani have slipped for the same reason: that the party is just an instrument to achieve absolute power and mega resource mobilisation.
Advani and Sonia are designing an exclusive two-party system, so that the nation has no third choice. They want to eliminate regional parties. In 2004, Advani assumed that the BJP was shining so brightly that it was time to take over. He aborted the partyâs alliance with the JMM.
The BJP lost 13 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand. Advani refused the AGP request for an additional seat thus negating another alliance. The Congress-Bodos won 10 seats. Otherwise, the Congress would have won only two. He also drove Om Prakash Chautala out of the Haryana alliance. Congress won nine Lok Sabha seats in Haryana. Otherwise, the BJP would have won five, Chautala three and Congress two.
Had an arrogant Advani not driven out his allies in Haryana, Jharkhand and Assam, then the BJP tally would have been 155 and the Congress, 125. The BJP would have been the single largest party and President A P J Abdul Kalam would have invited Atal Behari Vajpayee to form the government. Most Congress allies like Karunanidhi, Vaiko and Ramadoss would have accepted Vajpayee as PM.
The BJP could have happily ruled thereafter. When ordinary mortals are at the helm of political parties, money and power generate arrogance, intolerance, immorality, corruption. Arrogance destroys the most powerful of empires. The Kauravas were destroyed by Duryodhanaâs AICC: Arrogance, Intolerance, Care-a-damn-attitude, Cronyism.Â
Duryodhana was not corrupt but todayâs leaders are. Congress tickets were sold to the highest bidder. Congressmen who for years dedicatedly fought Chautalaâs INLD, BJP and even Lalu were denied tickets by the AICC managers; hence the devastation, both in Bihar and Jharkhand.
Having made a variety of small parties agree to a Congress-led Central government in May 2004, Sonia Gandhi set her sight on absolute power. Her grand design is to secure 272 plus Lok Sabha seats at the earliest. But thatâs possible only by weakening her allies, destroying them, occupying their electoral space and grabbing all anti-BJP votes to win the Lok Sabha seats. A glimpse of that unwise strategy was obvious in these Assembly elections.
In Bihar, had Sonia reciprocated Laluâs support in Delhi by accepting the 30 seats offered, then the UPA, in a straight fight with the NDA, would have wiped out the JD(U)-BJP alliance. The RJD would have won 125 seats and the Congress 25. But Sonia Gandhi would not accept this simple straight-forward scenario, because destroying Lalu was a must to capture Biharâs 40 Lok Sabha seats, prior to an Uttar Pradesh initiative to destroy Mulayam to capture 80 seats.
Only after that could Sonia call a snap Lok Sabha poll, secure a clear majority and force Kalam to invite her to be PM. There is no other way. As an alternative, Sonia could have broken away from the RJD and struck an alliance with Nitish and Paswan. In a three-way fight (Sonia-Nitish-Paswan vs RJD vs BJP), Soniaâs alliance would have got 125 seats, BJP 20, independents 20 and RJD 75. But such courage, character, conviction did not appeal to Sonia.
Sonia wanted the best of both worlds: keep taking Laluâs support in Delhi but strengthen his opponents in Bihar to unclasp his control over the Bihar government. In trying to decimate Lalu, Sonia resurrected a dead BJP. Out of power, the BJP shark was desperately gasping, out of electoral reckoning. Soniaâs mishandling of things put the BJP shark back into electoral waters. In Jharkhand, in a straight fight, the UPA could have easily won 60 seats had they apportioned seats amicably among allies.
But then Sonia Gandhi wanted to erase Lalu from Jharkhand and diminish the JMM. Her strategy was to ensure that the JMM got fewer seats than the Congress so that the Chief Minister could be from her party. Stephen Marandi was told that he could be a surprise CM candidate with the Congressâ backing. Stephen Marandi was enticed to desert the JMM to weaken Shibu Soren and defeat JMM candidates.
Her effort to destabilise the JMM, resulted in saving the BJP from a disastrous defeat and almost securing its return to power in the state. It was just Lalu who prevented a clear BJP victory. With hung Assemblies in both Bihar and Jharkhand, the governors will come into play. Jharkhand governor Syed Sibtey Razi will swear in a UPA government giving it a strong double headache of Lalu and Stephen Marandi. Bihar governor Buta Singh will swear in a non-BJP government giving it enough time to prove a majority. Congress will be Laluâs doormat in Bihar for a long long time.
Muslim support got Ram Vilas Paswan 30 seats. So betraying Muslims and teaming up with the BJP will destroy his credibility among the Muslims, unless Paswan bargains to be CM and lets the future handle itself. Alternatively, Paswan could secure a lucrative berth for his brother in the Bihar Cabinet and a bigger portfolio at Centre for himself to facilitate a non-BJP State government.
Haryana is the only saving grace for the Congress. A confluence of Congress-BJP votes defeated the INLD. Non-Jats never vote for Chautala. Jats acknowledged Chautalaâs development initiative but refused to pardon his sonsâ rash behaviour. Bhajan Lal refused Soniaâs offer to be governor. Bhajan Lal could use MLA pressure and resources to sway decision making. But her surprise choice for the Chief Ministerâs post could be Union Minister Kumari Selja, who however hurt her prospects by failing to get her cousin elected. If the phenomenal support to Congress is recognised, then a Jat could be CM.
As for Advani, he will continue to be the cork on the BJP bottle, while Vajpayee slumbers and BJP withers. The UPA ceases to be a United Progressive Alliance. Harkishan Singh Surjeet, Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi, Shibu Soren, Lalu, Mulayam and Deve Gowda, all feel betrayed and are biding time to strike at the Congress. Karuna-nidhi is keen on a BJP supported non-Congress government, but <b>Sonia could pre-empt an alternative government by dissolving the Lok Sabha. India may have to prepare for a winter mid-term poll.</b>
Siddhartha Reddy can be contacted at siddharthareddy@hotmail.com
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Soni will continue to hold all her earlier assignments including as in-charge of Congress President's Office and Jammu and Kashmir affairs<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Now Congress is expecting election ASAP. Laloo may pull out anyday, Commies are again in middle.
Mudy, Good reading. I think the whole fixing the states to get INC CMs was to prepare for this mid term poll on their terms, But the Jharkhand dhoka has advanced the date of this Poll. I bet they will declare President's rule in Jharkhand and Bihar. Goa is already under Central rule.
What I dont understand is how Reliance that helped form the UPA is getting slapped left and right?
<!--QuoteBegin-ramana+Mar 4 2005, 01:42 PM-->QUOTE(ramana @ Mar 4 2005, 01:42 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin--> What I dont understand is how Reliance that helped form the UPA is getting slapped left and right? <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Hasn't Reliance (and Bachaans) always been aligned to SJD (Mulayam and Amar Singh)? Believed even Anil Ambani and Jaya Bachaan were sent to Rajya Sabha by SJD. And we know things aren't too well between SJD and Congress, even during UPA formation there was this dinner episode of Sonia completely rebuffing Amar who was dragged there by Harkishan Singh Surjeet.
The spat between Rahul and Mulayam (and Jaya too) was out in the open, some months ago.
--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> Parties to watch are DMK, Lalu and Paswan.