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Middle East: Discussion

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Middle East: Discussion
India is also in line. It need only one trigger.
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[url="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_saudi_egypt_stocks_3"]Saudi exchange tumbles on Egypt protest[/url]
Quote:CAIRO – Saudi Arabia's stock exchange tumbled by over 6 percent on Saturday, setting the stage for other regional markets to drop as concerns mounted about the violent protests in Egypt.



The Tadawul All Shares Index fell 6.44 percent to close at 6,267 points. The market in Saudi Arabia, where the start of the work week is Saturday, was the first to react to the violence in Egypt and the drop in the TASI offered a window into the potential battering that could emerge when other regional markets reopen on Sunday.



"The fall is due to sentiment about what's happening in Egypt, and also in the US because the Dow went down" on Friday, said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at the Riyadh-based Banque Saudi Fransi-Credit Agricole Group.



"You have some collateral damage which is related to investors .... who have exposure in Egypt, and are trying to hedge that exposure by selling down their positions in Saudi Arabia," he said.
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62 killed over last 2 days of protests in Egypt



Saudi king offers Mubarak support
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[url="http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000022.aspx"] NightWatch[/url]
Quote:Egypt: Today was the Day of Rage and so it has been. Roughly an hour after Friday prayers, the demonstrations began in Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, then spread and continued into the night. Buildings were set alight; curfews ignored and the Army moved in. The night closed with President Mubarak's mildly concessional speech which promises to incite the protestors, more than placate them. Expect more confrontations on 29 January.



Special comment: Background. Research and analysis of more than 50 internal instability episodes since 1980, NightWatch has tracked order in what appears to be chaotic security situations. Once internal discontent metamorphoses into a breakdown of public order, the government begins searching for a set of responses that will halt the decline in its fortunes. A government will follow a three-phase cycle in applying different ideas and resources alternately to placate or crush an insurrection or to buy time to try to find "a line it can hold." That phrase refers to a set of actions over an expanse of national territory that will stabilize internal conditions.



If the government finds a set of responses that match the protestors' grievances, the downward cycle can be halted. If not, it will continue until the government falls or is changed, usually by the Army, the ultimate guardians of the state.



The cycle begins with an under reaction phase of more or less tolerant behavior. This phase almost always begins quietly with increased police presence, but no extraordinary force deployments. In most instances, the anti-government protestors are prone to misinterpret tolerance as weakness or indecision and will escalate demands and attract more protestors and usually looters.



When efforts at conciliation fail, the government has not choice but to escalate the security response. Unless the response is well-planned, swift and overwhelming, this overreaction will incite more demonstrations. At that point the government has not choice but to offer concessions so as to gain time for regrouping. The first concession is always people, rather than policies or practices.



Concessions always convey the perception that the demonstrators are winning and invariably provoke more demonstrations. In fact, concessions always start out as sops for the protestors. They do not mean that the government has fallen or that a revolution has succeeded.



Once a cycle is complete without improving the situation, the next cycles accelerate and power transfers from the government to the protestors heading towards power-sharing or bypassing power sharing and [color="#FF0000"]heading towards revolution[/color].



...



In Egypt, the dynamics of the action have been much different. The unrest began in Cairo, the center of power and the center of the government's strength. That is so unusual and such an anomaly that that fact alone is a red flag for skullduggery.



There is no spontaneity in the heart of the government. No body starts a revolution in the center unless he has cover and high level backing. The government was fully aware of the emerging unrest after the first day. The whole world knew for that matter, but the unrest grew for two days unchecked.



The Egyptian security services are highly competent in internal security. They routinely crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, for example, if members identify themselves in public, but not this time.



The second major anomaly is that kinetics of the movement. The unrest spread outwards from Cairo to Suez, then Alexandria and other towns, according to press reports. This is centrifugal movement, precisely the opposite direction of spontaneous unrest. Thus having drawn security attention away from Cairo, the day of rage occurred in Cairo and other cities, almost simultaneously. This is shaped, organized behavior.



The third anomaly is an inept response despite extensive preparations. Earliest news reports from Egypt confirm that the government had gone to considerable lengths to prepare for today's demonstrations. The disruption of the internet and social networking systems began hours before Friday prayers. Even without the internet and social networking, large demonstrations in the thousands managed to get organized, coordinate and stage simultaneously.



The fourth anomaly, which also occurred in Tunisia, is the opposition has no guns, no means of coercion. That is always the signature that the opposition is being manipulated, if not supported, by disaffected factions in the existing leadership. That is certainly what happened in Tunisia and appears to be the case in Egypt.



The paramilitary police and Army armored units were sighted in Cairo hours before unrest surged into the streets. The forces were ready, but did not act effectively or apparently cohesively. This looks contrived. Plus the Army was cheered when it finally moved into the streets of Cairo, Alexandria and Suez.



The demonstrators attacked the same set of targets in every city; police stations and local chapters of the government party. Museums and other symbols of the state were actually protected from looters by the demonstrators. That is not what happened in Kyrgyzstan last year, for example. There is an underlying order to what is taking place in Egypt.



News commentators have worked hard to try to explain the anomalies without success. [color="#FF0000"]The NightWatch hypothesis is that Egypt is not experiencing a revolution so much as a transition to a new leadership. That transition is not complete.[/color]



Some inside group that has been loyal to Mubarak has abetted this popular uprising. One expert suggested that it has been staged to prevent Mubarak from investing his son Gamal as his successor, in an Egyptian caricature of North Korean dynastic succession.



The group with the motive, intention and the means is the Army, according to that expert. Indirect evidence supports that hypothesis. The implications are that Readers should expect more street clashes that justify Army intervention, but are surprisingly not bloody. Mubarak will step down after a decent, brief interval.



The tradition of military-backed government that Nasser began and Sadat and Mubarak perpetuated will be handed on to a new generation of officers. Prices will be lowered, but there are no jobs.
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[url="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110129/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_jordan_protests_2"]Jordan's opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants[/url]
Quote:AMMAN, Jordan – The leader of Jordan's powerful Muslim Brotherhood warned Saturday that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Mideast and Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States.

Hammam Saeed's comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian Embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighboring Egypt demanding the downfall of the country's longtime president, Hosni Mubarak.



About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people's revolt will remain."



Elsewhere, a separate group of 300 protesters gathered in front of the office of Jordanian Prime Minister Samir Rifai, demanding his ouster. "Rifai, it's time for you to go," chanted the group.
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[url="http://www.politico.com/politico44/"] link[/url]

Quote:Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other top administration officials took part in a two-hour meeting about the situation in Egypt, Reuters reports. According to the White House spokesman, President Obama was not at the meeting, but will receive an update from his national security team later today. Obama spent the morning watching his daughter, Sasha, play basketball at the Jane E. Lawton Community Recreation Center in Chevy Chase, according to pool reports

President has his priorities right
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Quote:The uprising in Tunisia began with a fruit seller being slapped by a police officer. This particular fruit seller was an educated computer science graduate with no opportunities for employment and to keep bread on his family's table (7 siblings) took to the marketplace. Mohammed Bouaziz, 26, was ordered to pack up his street cart and he snapped. He went to the governors office and demanded an appointment threatening to set himself ablaze if the governor did not meet with him. He was turned away and took out his threat on December 17th.



Millions of angry Tunisians responded having been long sufferers of youth unemployment,a brutal and corrupt police force and soaring inflation. A revolution was started fueled by a steady stream of text messages, Twitter and Facebook updates. Dictator President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali fled the country. The people had endured, spoken and acted.
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[url="http://www.number10.gov.uk/latest-news/2011/01/joint-uk-france-germany-statement-on-egypt-59740"]Joint UK-France-Germany statement on Egypt[/url]
Quote:“We are deeply concerned about the events that we are witnessing in Egypt. We recognise the moderating role President Mubarak has played over many years in the Middle East. We now urge him to show the same moderation in addressing the current situation in Egypt.

“We call on President Mubarak to avoid at all costs the use of violence against unarmed civilians, and on the demonstrators to exercise their rights peacefully.

“It is essential that the further political, economic and social reforms President Mubarak has promised are implemented fully and quickly and meet the aspirations of the Egyptian people.

“There must be full respect for human rights and democratic freedoms, including freedom of expression and communication, including use of telephones and the internet, and the right of peaceful assembly.

“The Egyptian people have legitimate grievances and a longing for a just and better future. We urge President Mubarak to embark on a process of transformation which should be reflected in a broad-based government and in free and fair elections.”
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[url="http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2011/0128_egypt_obama_hamid.aspx"]How Obama Got Egypt Wrong[/url]

The following is Brookings Doha Center expert Shadi Hamid's contribution to Pharaoh's End, in which Foreign Policy magazine asked five top Egypt experts what President Obama should do in response to the nation's protests
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[url="http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Israel_conducts_massive_controlled_blast_999.html"]Israel conducts massive controlled blast[/url]
Quote:Negev, Israel (UPI) Jan 27, 2011

Israel conducted a massive controlled explosion to calibrate instruments at seismic monitoring stations worldwide, officials said.

Using 100 tons of explosives, The Geophysical Institute of Israel conducted the explosion at a site in the Negev on Wednesday.



It registered 2.7 on the Richter scale, and created a mushroom cloud that reached the height of up to 1.78 miles, or three kilometers, Haaretz reported Thursday.



Local scientists and scientists from the U.S. and France as well as journalists observed the blast.



Dr. Rami Hofstetter, head of seismology at the Geophysical Institute told the newspaper the experiment was important to study how seismic waves travel.



Testing stations located in countries such as Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia, all members of the International Monitoring System, were able to measure the explosion, the newspaper said.



Stations in Africa, North America, South America, Asia and Europe provide data about nuclear tests that have not been reported to the United Nations or the international community, Haaretz said.



The data was broadcast to the stations using equipment located 328 feet from the blast site and immediately transferred by satellite to the international data center located in Vienna for processing.
  Reply
Egypt headlines



Police disappear from streets...

Gangs with machetes, knives run wild...

UPDATE: 100+ dead; 2,000 injured...

ElBaradei: US 'losing credibility by the day'...

Troops let protests roll...

Clinton calls for 'orderly transition'...

Fighter jets swoop over Cairo in show of force...

Flights halted, tourists trapped...

19 private jets get out...

Egypt shuts down Al Jazeera bureau...
  Reply
[url="http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/obama-will-go-down-in-history-as-the-president-who-lost-egypt-1.340057"]Obama will go down in history as the president who lost Egypt[/url]

[url="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110130/D9L2Q1Q00.html"]Israeli PM says ties with Egypt must be preserved[/url]

[url="http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000023.aspx"]NightWatch-- Egypt: Security.[/url]
  Reply
Egypt army backs people's demands, holds fire

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110131/wl_...ticsunrest
  Reply
[quote name='HareKrishna' date='01 February 2011 - 03:49 AM' timestamp='1296511861' post='110491']

Egypt army backs people's demands, holds fire

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110131/wl_...ticsunrest

[/quote]

Egyptian Army is US stooge. I think finally, Egyptian army Chief will be installed as new leader, ofcourse picked by US.
  Reply
Food crisis caused by environmentalist are major trigger for unrest world wide.

US should stop subsidy to corn grower ASAP. Ethanol garbage should be stopped.
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[url="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iq6U5tOt9-r82mBM8q8f4X7PEXgw?docId=3cdbb5b33b054e1c9b14f356f2eb62ac"]Jordan's king fires Cabinet amid protests[/url]
Quote:AMMAN, Jordan (AP) — Jordan's King Abdullah II fired his government Tuesday in the wake of street protests and asked an ex-prime minister to form a new Cabinet, ordering him to launch immediate political reforms.



The dismissal follows several large protests across Jordan— inspired by similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt — calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Samir Rifai, who is blamed for a rise in fuel and food prices and slowed political reforms.



A Royal Palace statement said Abdullah accepted Rifai's resignation tendered earlier Tuesday.

The king named Marouf al-Bakhit as his prime minister-designate, instructing him to "undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms, which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan," the palace statement said.

Al-Bakhit previously served as Jordan's premier from 2005-2007.
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[url="http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_11000024.aspx"] link[/url]

Quote:Comment: This is the most significant development in the past week. It constitutes a pre-emptive attack against Mubarak's new, kinder-gentler government. The message is a warning against the scheduled crackdown because the Army will not back it. It effectively neuters the regime's ability to suppress the protests; encourages the protestors and guarantees that Mubarak cannot remain in office. He has lost the support of the Army. The balance of the guns now favors the opposition.



The over-reaction threat fizzled. The government is now making more concessions and trying to find people who will serve in the cabinet. The Mubarak regime is winding down, trying to find a line it can hold long enough for it to it move national treasure out of the country as fast as time permits.



Readers are witnessing a set of stalling tactics by a dying regime.



The Army/armed forces now appear to be dominant, not the civilian politicians. No one seems to be in charge of anything. The government selected by Mubarak only makes sense as a stalling action that enables Mubarak and his cronies to wind up last minute affairs. These men could never be the agents of reforms they fought viciously during the past three decades.



Every leader of Egypt since the overthrow of the monarchy by Colonel Nasser in 1952 has been a military officer. Readers should expect a military officer to emerge as the power behind the presidency. The key point is that an Army-backed government is likely for now, and will perpetuate the status quo as long as it can.



On 1 February, during this Watch, a million-person demonstration has begun to assemble in Tahrir Square in Cairo. The Army has promised not to interfere. This might determine whether the son-of-Mubarak government lasts, an Army-baked interim government restores some stability of whether a genuine revolution takes place in the second phase of unrest.



Ripple Effects



Syria: President Bashar al Asad said he will push for more political reforms, adding that Arab leaders need to accommodate their people's rising political and economic aspirations. He said he will push toward initiating municipal elections, empowering nongovernmental organizations and establishing new media laws.



Asad said that Syria needs time to build institutions and improve education before opening politically, or the demands for political reform could prove counterproductive and too much for Arab societies. He said if Arab leaders did not see the need for reform before Tunisia and Egypt, it is too late for reform now.



Comment: Asad was careful to avoid the issue of voting rights. That is because he heads a minority government of pro-Iranian Arab Alawites, a sect of Shi'ism that has ruled Syria's Sunni Arab majority populace with brutality for decades. The regime has leveled whole towns who opposed the Alawites.



[color="#FF0000"]A revolution in Syria would be welcomed throughout the Sunni Arab street, but not by the Persians in Tehran[/color].
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Muslim Brotherhood: Suez Canal Must be Closed, Egypt Should be Ready for War with Israel
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[size="5"]Breaking News: Egyptian President Mubarak Reportedly Stepping Down[/size]



REUTERS: Mubarak to Announce He Won't Seek New Term in September...
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He was already a cancer patient and not going to run for office. The whole crisis is about is successor and not just him.
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