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BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 06-24-2010 [url="http://www.hindustantimes.com/Expelled-Jaswant-Singh-rejoins-BJP-says-feels-good-to-be-back/H1-Article1-562420.aspx"]Jaswant Singh rejoins BJP, says good to be back[/url] BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 06-24-2010 [quote name='ramana' date='22 June 2010 - 02:37 AM' timestamp='1277153955' post='107110'] What is happening in Bihar? [/quote] Nitish is very good in showing his mother-in-law tantrums. Picture with Modi means he can lose Muslims/Bangladeshi votes. BJP Future - 7 - ramana - 06-24-2010 Not likely.... Pioneer reports Quote:Thursday, June 24, 2010 BJP Future - 7 - ramana - 06-25-2010 INC attack dogs could manipulate the Karnataka Lok Ayukta resignation into a mini crisis. BJP Future - 7 - ramana - 06-25-2010 [quote name='ramana' date='24 June 2010 - 09:15 PM' timestamp='1277413625' post='107169'] INC attack dogs could manipulate the Karnataka Lok Ayukta resignation into a mini crisis. [/quote] Didnt take too long! Google cache on news stories BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-05-2010 [url="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/NDA-will-return-to-power-in-2014-Nitin-Gadkari/articleshow/6127058.cms"]NDA will return to power in 2014: Nitin Gadkari[/url] BJP Future - 7 - Capt M Kumar - 07-09-2010 In comments that could stoke a controversy, Gadkari thundered at a BJP rally in Dehra Dun last night asking Congress leaders "Is Afzal Guru the son-in-law of Congress? Have you(Congress) given your daughter to him(Afzal). Why is he being given special treatment?" Congress reacted with disdain to Gadkari's remarks saying he has lost his mind and scoffed at the BJP chief. When asked by reporters today whether he would apologise for his controversial remarks, Gadkari said he stuck to his stand. "I have said nothing wrong. I stick to my stand and so there is no need (to apologise)," Gadkari told reporters in Dehra Dun. http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Is-Afzal-Guru-your-soninlaw-Gadkari-asks-Congress/644302/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+expressindia%2FiKgY+%28Expressindia%29 BJP Future - 7 - Capt M Kumar - 07-16-2010 'Punjab and Haryana are not regions new to floods, preventive mechanism is what is needed,' BJP national secretary Navjot Singh Sidhu, known for his one liners, told reporters, adding 'better prevent and prepare than repent and repair'. Addressing the media, BJP national secretary Captain Abhimanyu said: 'This is not a natural disaster but a man made disaster and this is primarily because of the callous attitude of the government.' http://newshopper.sulekha.com/punjab-haryana-floods-man-made-disasters-bjp_news_1193685.htm BJP Future - 7 - ramana - 07-23-2010 Op-ed Pioneer, 18 July 2010 Free media tars RSS with fiction Read comments Quote:AGENDA | Sunday, July 18, 2010 | BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-23-2010 Prasar Bharati is good tool of Congress to harass anyone, CBI, RAW etc are all Govt puppets. Total useless. BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-23-2010 http://magadhstrategy.in/?p=29 BJP Future - 7 - ramana - 07-23-2010 [quote name='Muppalla' date='23 July 2010 - 03:49 PM' timestamp='1279899676' post='107589'] http://magadhstrategy.in/?p=29 [/quote] Could you post the text to help those who cant access site from rozgar locations? BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-23-2010 [quote name='ramana' date='23 July 2010 - 12:41 PM' timestamp='1279906417' post='107592'] Could you post the text to help those who cant access site from rozgar locations? [/quote] Is Congress forcing Nitish to be part of UPA? Dalits-16% MBC(non-OBC)-30% OBC(Kurmi,Koeri, bania and Yadavs)-24% Forward Castes-13% Muslims-17% The above is a rough breakdown of the groups in bihar and this of significance, because unlike other states in India, people in bihar vote mostly on caste/religious allegiance. So lets look for the locked categories. As of now, the yadavs will only vote for Lalu Yadav. The kurmiââ¬â¢s will vote for JD(U). The MBCââ¬â¢s (30%) used to be evenly split between JD(U) and RJD, since they never vote for congress or BJP or any other party. But since Nitish is in ruling now and due to some visible progress on the ground, the scribe has enough reason to believe that the MBC vote will be split 20-10 in favour of Nitish. The obcââ¬â¢s other than yadav and kurmi will be evenly split across BJP, JD(U) and RJD. So we based on the above calculations, we have so far RJD (Locked): 11 (yadav) + 10 (mbc) + 1 (other OBC) = 22% JD(U) (Locked): 5 (kurmi) + 20 (mbc) + 3 (other OBC) = 28% BJP (Locked): 4 (other OBC) = 4% This covers 54% of the population. Dalits (16%), Muslims (17%) and Fwd Caste (13%) are the swingers now. As of now, the fwd caste perceives that BJP is their best bet, due to 2 reasons. The BJP has put the right candidates to support their interests and also because Fwd caste is a power hungry sections that likes to dominate. So they feel that since Nitish is on a winning wicket, and since BJP is in alliance they can cling on to power by voting for BJP. They prefer voting for a nitish ally to cling on to power, because they cannot even imagine voting to a BC caste leader like Nitish directly. So that settles the fwd caste equation, they will vote for a nitish ally, more specifically they can vote for congress or bjp whoever allies with Nitish. This is nothing new for them, since they have voted for decaded in favor of congress. Since BJP has locked them partially, it may result that, if nitish congress alliance takes place, fwd caste will be split between bjp and congress. The muslims are in a big dilemna as to whom they shd vote for? Nitish thinks that they vote for him, but they dont. They are also very smart in that way, their leaders tell nitish that muslims will vote for him, so that he does not do anything anti-muslim in alliance with BJP, but they only vote for RJD or Congress. They used to vote for RJD, since congress was a zero in Bihar. But again if congress goes for alliance with Nitish, they will swing en-masse to Nitish congress alliance. Dalits in bihar see paswan as their leader, they may well continue to think the same, but traditionally in India, dalits have sided with congress except in bihar and UP. So if they see congress coming to power they may side with congress, but it is the same like fwd caste here, paswan may have locked them a little bit too much. So if congress allys with nitish dalit vote might split. So in essence if Nitish goes with BJP NItish + BJP = 28 % (Nitish Locked) + 4% (BJP locked) + 13 % (Fwd caste for BJP, if they ally with NItish) = 45%. But Nitish does not feel comfortable with BJP on many occasions and feels that he can be a ruler of Bihar by himself, so for now, he feels he can get muslims in his kitty by going with congress and then maybe get rid of congress also. Nitish + Cong = 28% (Nitish Locked) + 17% (Muslims) + lets say (5% fwd caste becos of congress ) + 5% (Dalit vote) = 55 %. This is what is driving his calculation and congress is desperate to get a foothold in bihar and they are using their power at the center to make a repeat of orissa in bihar. They used all agencies to make naveen split with bjp in orissa and now see the sequence of events in Bihar/Gujarat. (1) During 2009 elections there was an expectation to bring Nitish into INC fold. The reason is Laloo will never jump to BJP because Ino-Pak stlye fight between forward castes and Yadavs there. (2) Nitish is trying to get a piece of Mullas so that he can have a better leaverage (3) BJP poured cold water by sending Modi and indirectly conveying that, if you try to desert us, will make you look anti-muslim. (4) Nitish thought it is better to stick to BJP or did he fool them and will he ditch them at the last moment. (5) INC is very irritated at the change of fortunes (6) It brought out CBI cases against Nisth to blakmail him (stick) (7) It progressed on Modi using CBI ( carrot to Nitish) and now troubling him like no end to it. At the same time, INC in bihar is campaigning with nitish modi posters together and putting pressure on him to get out of NDA. If INC does not ally with Nitish, but keep putting gujarat govt under pressure thereby trying to improve their image among muslims, then eventually muslims of bihar will be confused as to whom to vote for, laloo or congress. Muslims feel for other muslims across the globe, so punishing modi delights them wherever they are, but if INC does not ally with nitish they will be confused and in the end their vote will be split and NDA will win handsomely in Bihar. (8) Nitish may do like Naveen of orissa exactly after elections are declared ( he is already doing by asking about 170 seats) (9) INC and Nitish will form a grand Secular alliance and get all Mullah votes. it will be Mullah+Kurmis+some OBC to Nitish+INC. INC will get more seats freely eventhough they are bankurpt. Dalits will swing too as Paswan is weak 10) Yadavs + some OBCs + few dalits to Paswan and Laloo 11) Forward castes may swing to INC as well sensing the loss of power. This is the typical behavior in Ganga kinarewale. BJP becomes semi-nanaga. This strategy is the best for INC to force through the state using Nitish. However time will tell if Nitish wants to fall for this and exit into oblivion later like all those who touched INC as a coalition partner. BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-24-2010 Many a times foreign based arm chair analysis for BJP have missed the mark. After the Gujarat-Bihar tussle(basically Modi repulsion by JD(U)), the BJP has come out stronger. Idea that Nitish is now running out of NDA is not correct. There is a leader in Bihar BJP who opposes the coalition with JD(U). Actually Nitish wants to do joint campaigning with that person. The prabharis appointed for Bihar (Ananth Kumar & Dharmendra Pradhan) have taken good inputs from others. There have been good surveys. The local Bihar BJP unit has actually liked the help of Delhi team (Usually local units in every party hate the central team for interference on electoral decisions). All these are happening for the last 6 months or so. The party can also become a big player in Bihar like completely replacing RJD & Congress as principle opposition. The so called "locked" percentage is not the reality. =========================================================== Few points of some suppoters: It has almost become a habit of NRIs sitting in foreign lands who are supporters of RSS, BJP etc to give armchair analysis and reports in various party forums & organizations. These kinds of reports/analysis are very much further away from real data or ground situation. This is one of the reasons why central leadership in Delhi doesn't take these organizations/forums seriously. Some NRIs think that now I have read all about geopolitics & strategy in the internet, read news reports on a hourly basis, has some friends/acquaintance in RSS/BJP circles, I understand Indian politics & BJP in particular. They haven't done a single hour of work in election campaigning or work in party office. Neither they undersand what is the structure of RSS/BJP, its decision making process, nor its weakness/strengths etc. Also they "worship" false "gods" in the structure. Now they feel a pollster with a South Indian sounding name associated with the party promoted in English media by a Bengali journalist who in turn is a advisor/chamcha of a Punjabi last name BJP leader is very efficient & accurate. They don't know how much mistakes or locha are there. Another interesting point is that they post bravado in internet and hide in real world (they won't come for a single party work or even for a meeting). They will give the most amazing theories that US government is controlling every bit of Indian politics and US spying apparatus will focus on very single NRI who helps BJP/nationalism. So their jobs will be targetted or their companies will be under tax scanner etc. They attach so much importance to themselves that they should be followed and spied by US Government intelligence apparatus 24/7 basis. We can actually show their fears are unfounded and show some real examples. Like what happened during California case or a particular NY issue etc. But many have internalised so much negative attitude, its difficult to make them see reason. Another side point: Rumor mongering & conspiracy theories can take you to some extant in the internet world. Actually it irritates/throws out even the persons whom you are trying to help. P.S: I don't disrespect these individuals. They have a great love for the country, the ideology which will help it etc. They would have definitely contributed for the nation in many ways. I am only critiquing one of their methodologies. BJP Future - 7 - Capt M Kumar - 07-24-2010 Though I don't agree with Muppalla's write up like you yet I don't agree with your as well. here is the reason: BJP does not have any leader of stature in Bihar. Modi was challenged and survived but that bespeaks of his survival instinct only. Here I agree with you that my viewpoint may not reflect ground realities. On the other hand, let us move out of Bihar and look at Mayawati who used BJP and today is leader on her own but I don't see any1 in Bihar capable of doing Maya whereas by the same logic Nitish has used BJP and has emerged numero1 in Bihar. I shall love to have your feedback. BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-24-2010 Note: the above post(per ramana's request) and the views are copied/pasted from the blog link above. Right or wrong the anology was not wrong. Mayawati in UP, Naveen in Orissa, CBN in AP actually won because of post-kargil's BJP wave. These are not some theories but facts. As long as Nitish makes a sensible calculation, BJP may be safe but see again BJP is not dependent on its strenght but dependent on how BJP succeeds/fails in forcing Nitish to stick and not otherway round. Naveen in Orissa kicked the BJP's butt exactly few days before nominations day. The game is running sameway so far except that BJP in Bihar is very strong as compared to the one in orissa but on its own they will not win more 40 out of 240. BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-25-2010 http://www.dailypioneer.com/271568/Amit-Shah-sent-to-14-days-JC.html See the last line and compare to magadhnagrik artcle and it is on dot. Timing of Gujarat CBI, Bihar CBI cases are all for stealing Nitish from BJP. That's the game. BJP Future - 7 - Capt M Kumar - 07-25-2010 There is difference between Nitish and Maya vs Navin. Navin is entirely parochial leader; nobody knows him outside of Orissa whereas Maya has declared from rooftop that her ambition is to be PM. Nitish on the other hand may be cherishing similar ambitions which is not at all possible in Congress and there may be outside chance in NDA. The struggle between Modi of Gujrat and Nitish may be around this. Plus there are always unknown factors in any equation(dark horses). BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-26-2010 Here is an article from a Bihar's "inde-genious" person. I think it is on the dot. [url="http://expressbuzz.com/opinion/columnists/rahul-vs-namo-in-bihar/192324.html"]Rahul Vs NaMo[/url] Aditya Sinha Express News Service Every sixth Bihari is a Muslim. (On the other hand, every eighth Indian is a Muslim according to the 2001 census, though some in the community argue that it is closer to every seventh Indian. In any case, ten per cent of Indiaââ¬â¢s Muslims are in Bihar.) The Bihar Assembly polls will take place in around three months, and as always, whoever has the best caste/community combination will win. Incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar tried to split the Muslim vote by attacking his Gujarat counterpart Narendra Modi over a minor matter of newspaper ads during the BJP meet in Patna last month. It apparently backfired. The Muslims are now doubly suspicious of Nitish despite his not-inconsiderable achievements of fast-tracking development and improving security; and the upper castes do not look as if they will transfer their votes from the BJP to the JD(U) in constituencies where the latter will fight. Lalu Prasad has gained. After a year of silently suffering the cavalier treatment by his senior UPA partner, he can afford himself a smile. He now has the edge in Bihar. This has not gone unnoticed by the Congress party which, like Rip Van Winkle, hopes to electorally wake up in Bihar after 20 long years. It is repeatedly said that the Congress cannot ever hope for a parliamentary majority unless it gets substantial numbers of MPs from the Hindi heartland states of UP (80 Lok Sabha seats) and Bihar (40). Bihar, due to Laluââ¬â¢s dominance for most of the past two decades, seemed a much tougher nut to crack than UP. Rahul Gandhiââ¬â¢s surprising performance in UP in last yearââ¬â¢s Lok Sabha elections appears to have given the Congress a ray of hope. Given the Muslim voterââ¬â¢s importance in the Congressââ¬â¢ traditional electoral strategy, the party not surprisingly last month appointed a relatively young, fresh face as its party chief: Mehboob Ali Kaiser. And then, seeing how Nitish fell flat on his face trying to confuse Muslims by demonising their enemy no. 1, Narendra Modi, the Congress has decided to do one better, and this is perhaps why it aggressively moved the Central Bureau of Investigation against his close associate and Gujarat minister of state for home, Amit Shah. If the CBI summoned Shah, do not assume this is a logical consequence of the investigation of the encounter killing of gangster Sohrabuddin Sheikh, which has already led to the arrest of an IPS officer (Gujarat claims Sohrabuddin had terrorist links, much like Dawood Ibrahim). If the CBI acted methodically, Ottavio Quattrocchi would be singing arias in Tihar jail. And saying the investigation was ordered by the Supreme Court is besides the fact; the ruling party can turn up or lower the pressure in CBI cases whenever it chooses. The summons is simply intended to show Biharââ¬â¢s Muslims that the Congress is their enemyââ¬â¢s enemy; so the Congress deserves their votes. You may wonder whether this strategy is any good, and the best clue is in how Lalu behaves. His core combination of the Yadavs and Muslims in Bihar has been impregnable; you could argue that hubris is what defeated him in the last Assembly elections. His voter-coalition has survived longer than Mulayam Singhââ¬â¢s in UP because unlike Mulayam, Lalu never betrayed his voters by getting into bed with Kalyan Singh, the man who oversaw the 1992 demolition in Ayodhya. If he feels even slightly unsettled by other politiciansââ¬â¢ outreach to Muslims, he will react. The fact that he has not and that after a long year in sulk he finally allows himself an occasional smile should tell you how good the Congressââ¬â¢ strategy is. There are also rumours that the Congress may try to woo back its traditional Dalit voters by announcing that its chief ministerial candidate will be Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar. (She can safely be a candidate because the likelihood of the Congress taking the lead in forming a government is remote.) Though she is the late Jagjivan Ramââ¬â¢s daughter and also Indiaââ¬â¢s first woman Speaker, these are credentials that impress only middle-class newspaper readers, not rural Dalits. More importantly, Ram Vilas Paswan is well-entrenched as Biharââ¬â¢s Dalit leader. This rumour will thus remain a fanciful notion. The only sure hope for the Congress party is Rahul Gandhi. Indeed, with Nitish scoring a self-goal by bickering with his alliance partner, and with Lalu not participating in the central government (a source of patronage for party workers and constituents), you would think this is the best window of opportunity that Rahul and his party have in Bihar. Strangely, the princeling has of late kept a low profile. Perhaps it has to do with his 40th birthday last month, when the youth icon holidayed abroad to celebrate his metamorphosis into a middle-aged man. Around that time, The Economist wrote a damaging piece about Rahul and the fact that no one knew about this future prime ministerââ¬â¢s policy on anything (although many have guessed that Rahul believes Union home minister P Chidambaram to be ââ¬Åintellectually arrogantââ¬Â, as Digvijay Singh put it). Rahulââ¬â¢s beliefs are so secret that you would need Leonardo DiCaprio in the film Inception to enter his dream and dig them out. And since then, Rahul has not stirred from Delhi, preferring to meet party colleagues from Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu at his home. (It is not known if he accompanied his brother-in-law Robert Vadra to South Africa to watch the World Cup final that was won by Spain, a country that apparently has emotional significance for Rahul.) Rahul has promised to visit Bihar in late August; his mother will be addressing a rally at Patnaââ¬â¢s Gandhi Maidan a month from now. Somehow that does not seem to measure up to the kind of effort he put into UP where he did the occasional sleep-over at Dalit homes. This is a chance for Rahul to show that his party is on the comeback trail; selecting fresh candidates will help pick up a bunch of seats; and the time to do so is now. If Rahul is just going to attend a couple of functions here and there, the equally returns will be equally meagre. And if thatââ¬â¢s the case, then the contest will be simply Nitish versus Lalu. With three months to go, Nitish has enough time to make up lost ground. In which case, the results will show that Bihar was not just Nitishââ¬â¢s win, but Rahulââ¬â¢s loss. Rahul may try and chalk it up as one of those losses like Gujarat and UP in 2007 that did not matter in the long run. But if the voters see it differently, then the princelingââ¬â¢s plan to become prime minister (and one unfettered by coalition allies) will, to refer back to Inception, remain a dream-within-a-dream. BJP Future - 7 - Guest - 07-26-2010 Elections are nothing but with playing with human emotions, like striking the iron when it is hot. All pandering of constituents is like feeding the bhakra for the eventual bali. Dealing with emotions boils down to shaping fears, desires & honor of humans. Targeting NRIs with the accusation that they are far removed from the ground reality is nothing but arm-chair critiquing. It does not take a rocket-scientist or a brain-surgeon to figure out NRIs by virtue of being outside India are indeed removed from the reality. But that gives them another angle or perspective. Ideologies are developed by groups and forced upon the grass-root level. Hazaar ideas will be developed and attempted, not everything will click. Elections are about calculations and miscalculations, no party ever gets it right all the time. BJP needs good vision and plumbing work to get the message through its system, energize people at the grass root levels. What does energizing mean? It means creating more activists who will stand up for it and speak for the party. Who will come out in droves and vote. And I doubt if all BJP supporters think BJP will be the cure for all the problems of Desh, a prominent member in another forum pointed out that NRIs could be trapped in such a fallacy. The member has hoary reputation, but still ends up at generalization. |