<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->There are many articles appearing in newspapers today, crediting Congress victory to reasons such as:
· votersâ yearning for stability,
· voterâs preference for progress (as Leftists lost heavily),
· Charisma of Gandhi family,
· Rural prosperity and pro-poor policy
· Voter's rejection of BJP's communalism
· Pan-Indian national outlook by voters.
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. <b>This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. </b>Each state voted based on local issues. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Let us take each major state:
1. Uttar Pradesh â Congress did not perform better due to Rahul Gandhiâs charisma. As per exit polls, 6% Muslim voters switched from SP to Congress, in seats where Congress was more likely to win, instead of blindly voting for SP. Of course, farm loan waiver was a big issue too.
2. West Bengal â Congress/Trinamul has won all the seats on the Bangladesh border. This clearly suggests that Muslims deserted Leftists due to Singur/Nano controversy which primarily impacted local Muslims! So this is a pro-minority voting by illegal immigrants against development!
3. Bihar â In the neighbouring state, good performance by JD(U) was rewarded by voters.
4. Maharashtra â UPA won 29 seats in this state, mainly because of Raj Thackareyâs MNS, which won enough votes in 8-10 seats, to cause losses to BJP/SS. Without the UPA-sponsored MNS campaign, NDA would have won 29 seats.
5. Orissa â a vote for good governance by Biju Patnaik.
6. Punjab â even stevens considering anti-incumbency against Akalis.
7. Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, HP â BJP performed very well. They may not have swept elections, but won a decent majority in each state.
8. Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Assam â These are the only states that Congress can claim to have won due to good performance. Of these, Rajasthan is a state that has traditionally flip-flopped every 5 years for Congress and against its opponents (old Janata party and now BJP). BJP swept 2004, Congress is merely returning the favour this year.
9. karnataka â BJP turned in great performance.
10. Andhra Pradesh â If Chiranjivi factor had not been present, TDP/TRS would have unseated Congress. Another spoiler like Thackarey.
11. Tamil Nadu â Sri Lanka issue was the main driver why DMK managed to win, in a traditionally flip-flop state. Jayalalitha tried her best, but, Tamil sub-nationalism is a strong undercurrent.
12. Kerala â This is a state that has flip-flopped each and every election since 70s, and this one is just continuation of the trend. Congress did not have to do much to win.
We, therefore, believe that Congress has managed this election better, with the horse for each course. BJP, on the other hand, did not get right allies and could not neutralise spoilers. There is no strong national mandate in favor of Congress on economic, social or security issues.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
http://www.bharatright.com/election_analysis.html
· votersâ yearning for stability,
· voterâs preference for progress (as Leftists lost heavily),
· Charisma of Gandhi family,
· Rural prosperity and pro-poor policy
· Voter's rejection of BJP's communalism
· Pan-Indian national outlook by voters.
Our detailed analysis suggests otherwise. <b>This was clearly an election, which was a collection of individual state results. </b>Each state voted based on local issues. Admittedly, there was some undercurrent of support to Congress due to pro-poor policies. But, mainly Congress won in many states on parochial issues such as Muslim commualism, casteism etc. Let us take each major state:
1. Uttar Pradesh â Congress did not perform better due to Rahul Gandhiâs charisma. As per exit polls, 6% Muslim voters switched from SP to Congress, in seats where Congress was more likely to win, instead of blindly voting for SP. Of course, farm loan waiver was a big issue too.
2. West Bengal â Congress/Trinamul has won all the seats on the Bangladesh border. This clearly suggests that Muslims deserted Leftists due to Singur/Nano controversy which primarily impacted local Muslims! So this is a pro-minority voting by illegal immigrants against development!
3. Bihar â In the neighbouring state, good performance by JD(U) was rewarded by voters.
4. Maharashtra â UPA won 29 seats in this state, mainly because of Raj Thackareyâs MNS, which won enough votes in 8-10 seats, to cause losses to BJP/SS. Without the UPA-sponsored MNS campaign, NDA would have won 29 seats.
5. Orissa â a vote for good governance by Biju Patnaik.
6. Punjab â even stevens considering anti-incumbency against Akalis.
7. Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, HP â BJP performed very well. They may not have swept elections, but won a decent majority in each state.
8. Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Assam â These are the only states that Congress can claim to have won due to good performance. Of these, Rajasthan is a state that has traditionally flip-flopped every 5 years for Congress and against its opponents (old Janata party and now BJP). BJP swept 2004, Congress is merely returning the favour this year.
9. karnataka â BJP turned in great performance.
10. Andhra Pradesh â If Chiranjivi factor had not been present, TDP/TRS would have unseated Congress. Another spoiler like Thackarey.
11. Tamil Nadu â Sri Lanka issue was the main driver why DMK managed to win, in a traditionally flip-flop state. Jayalalitha tried her best, but, Tamil sub-nationalism is a strong undercurrent.
12. Kerala â This is a state that has flip-flopped each and every election since 70s, and this one is just continuation of the trend. Congress did not have to do much to win.
We, therefore, believe that Congress has managed this election better, with the horse for each course. BJP, on the other hand, did not get right allies and could not neutralise spoilers. There is no strong national mandate in favor of Congress on economic, social or security issues.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
http://www.bharatright.com/election_analysis.html