Here is my 2 cents -
This ISI in rank statement is not first time or last time. Nothing will change.
US will do nothing with Pakistan till they are using dedicated Airforce base in Pakistan. Till US is getting pictures and passport print of every single person entering and leaving from Pakistan Airports. Till they are getting blue prints of China defence products. In this situation Pakistan is using both to make money.
Whatever US is doing is lip service. Current comments are to keep Indians in good humor because they just got a used car deal from US used car salesman. <!--emo& --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Till Indians don't watch its own interest, they will be treated like a BIG joke.
Nareshji,
Just a short while ago the US Ambassador to the US was being interviewed on the CNN on this issue. He made several guarded statements pointing out that no evidence has been provided by the CIA to substantiate the allegations. This in turn should provoke the US to leak out at least some evidence.
In fact, to me it appears to face such an eventuality, the Pak Govt spokesperson has already hinted of the presence of some extremist elements within its establishment. The events of the next few days will indicate how powerful the ISI still remains. In fact, the increase in terrorist attacks within India particularly in J&K and the recent incidence of firing along the LOC are all pointing to the old game of ISI to ensure that tension remains on the border. ISI is just the instrument the real problem is that the Pak Army does not want a situation where it looses it importance and thus the pre eminent position in the Pak society .It will really be interesting to see how the situation develops.
Now We know why US finger pointed Pakistan and then backed-off.
Breaking News -
Looks like Pakistan delivered Al-Zawari.
<!--QuoteBegin-Mudy+Aug 1 2008, 11:34 PM-->QUOTE(Mudy @ Aug 1 2008, 11:34 PM)<!--QuoteEBegin-->Now We know why US finger pointed Pakistan and then backed-off.
Breaking News -
Looks like Pakistan delivered Al-Zawari.
[right][snapback]85587[/snapback][/right]
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<b>Mudy Ji :</b>
That would be wishful thinking as then Pakistan will be left with only one card - OBL.
If Al-Z is handed over then Pakistan will have to "Do More" and hand over OBL.
That will never happen as OBL's "Real" Sponsors are Saudi Arabia.
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
News is Al-Zawari met his 72 houris. It came for a blip and now no one is reporting anymore, they are still reconfirming.
Nareshji,
PM missed red carpet, air force received refurbished F-16 with less goodies. Now This is election year here and Afghan NATO causality is jumping, German refused to fight, Now US and UK had to put pressure on fundoos and it mean their Mai Bap Pakistan. Its give and take.
OBL may be October suprise.
[center]<b><span style='font-size:15pt;line-height:100%'>Indian Official Sees Sinking Relations With Pakistan</span></b>[/center]
<b>BANGALORE, India â The Indian Foreign Secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon, said his countryâs relationship with Pakistan had sunk to a new low since 2003, when the two nuclear rivals stepped back from the brink of war and began peace talks.
His unusually blunt public comments come on the heels of several cease-fire violations on the disputed border of Kashmir and a deadly bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which India and the United States have blamed Pakistanâs leading military intelligence agency , the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI.
âIf you ask me to describe the state of the dialogue, it is in a place where it hasnât been in the last four years,â Mr. Menon told journalists at the annual summit meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. âWe face a situation where things have happened in the recent past which were unfortunate and which, quite frankly, have affected the future of the dialogue.â</b>
Pakistan has denied that it had any hand in the bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul last month, which killed 58 people, including four Indians.
India accuses Pakistan of three breaches of the 2003 cease-fire on the so-called Line of Control in Kashmir.
After the Kabul blast, Mr. Menon had described the relationship as âunder stress.â
âThat is why we are talking to Pakistan,â he added Friday. âThat is why we are carrying on the conversation.â
India has not cut off the peace talks, and privately, Indian officials have said that the peace effort has been strained by internal political problems inside Pakistan and the openings it may have created for hard-line forces. âIf you have this fluid situation, you have elements within the army, within the ISI who have the opportunity to move forward with their own agenda, with respect to Afghanistan and India,â said a senior Indian official last week. He would not allow his name to be published because he is not authorized to speak publicly on the subject. âThe peace process is in limbo. There is no direction. This is what has opened up the door to these elements.â
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India is scheduled to meet with his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, on Saturday at the summit meeting in Colombo.
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
[center] <!--emo&:clapping--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/clap.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='clap.gif' /><!--endemo--> <b><span style='font-size:15pt;line-height:100%'>Pakistan's intelligence agency 'is like a woman with multiple lovers'</span></b> <!--emo&:clapping--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/clap.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='clap.gif' /><!--endemo--> [/center]
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><b><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>"The Pakistani Army is like a woman with multiple lovers, she has to satisfy them all,"said Ayesha Siddiqa, the author of Military Inc."While courting the Taliban, it sleeps with America."</span></b><!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->At war with Hindu India
Premen Addy
The Pioneer
2 Aug 2008
Pakistan has been at war with India since the partition of the
subcontinent in 1947. Its raison d'etre has been the destruction
of 'Hindu' India, and the restoration of pristine Islamic power and
glory. A Muslim League resolution in the aftermath of World War II
called for the quick departure of Britain, so that the forces of
Islam could wreak havoc on the country in the monstrous tradition of
Ghaznavi, Tamerlane, Nadir Shah and Abdali.
It was in the reading room of the old India Office Library (now part
of the magnificent British Library) that I read these incendiary
words following an accidental reach of the arm to the appropriate
volume of the Annual Indian Register on the open shelves. I drew the
attention of an English post-graduate student -- a friend as it
happens -- who was prone to see no evil and hear no evil in and about
the League leadership. He perceived in cold print what he had been
unable to see through the distorting prism of his supervisor's
received wisdom.
I remember many hours of conversation with the late Air Commodore MK
Janjua, Pakistan's first air chief who, falling foul of his political
masters, was falsely arraigned and sentenced in the 1951 Rawalpindi
Conspiracy case, which allegedly was Communist driven. A fellow
prisoner, the poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz, in 1979 assured me during a visit
to London that Janjua was neither conspirator nor Communist, but a
victim of events over which he had no control. He was eventually
cashiered and released and ended his long years of exile in London
where I came to know him well.
Islamabad's genocide in the country's eastern wing had shredded the
conceptual paradise of a South Asian Muslim homeland, forcing Janjua
who, in his time, had fought resolutely for its realisation, to
meditate on this blood-stained saga. The unburdening of a tortured
soul requires a sympathetic witness: I was that person, the right man
at the right place.
I became a repository of my subject's confidences and confessions, of
the grandiose fantasies that haunted Pakistani officers' messes,
where the faithful swore to "bleed the bastards" from across the
border to extinction. It could be a perilous exercise with unforeseen
consequences, warned Janjua to an exuberant acquaintance who came
calling, as he related the incident ruefully.
Jinnah, as Islamic Sisyphus, made the initial charge to the heights
of an imagined triumph by directing his Pathan hordes to Kashmir in
October 1947, but they failed to deliver the prize to their genie.
His successors, seized by Jinnah's spirit, have sought repeatedly to
roll the stone up the mountain to only see it roll back to the
bottom. So the labours of every would-be Sisyphus, under an ancient
curse, are condemned to continue ad infinitum.
Bombings in Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Jaipur, Mumbai and myriad other
places take their toll of innocent lives. The Pakistan military, the
shadowy ISI and their jihadi collaborators are no nearer their goal
of laying hated India low today than they were some 62 years ago. The
only way to release Pakistan from its burden is to smoothen the
wheels of an honourable and peaceful exit from the stage. The dodo
may be extinct but its image draws crowds of sightseers to every
museum where the creature's skeletal remains are housed. We pick at
the zoological past to understand the evolution of life on earth, so
might not we profit from a similar exercise on political forms that
have outlived their purpose?
Take heed of Kemal Ataturk's caution to Turkey's new National
Assembly in 1921, in the wake of the Ottoman Empire's defeat and
dissolution: "Gentlemen, by looking as though we were doing great and
fantastic things, without actually doing them, we have brought the
hatred and rancour and malice of the whole world on this country and
this people. We did not serve pan-Islamism. We said we would, but we
didn't, and our enemies said: 'Let us kill them at once before they
do!' And there you have the problem... Rather than run after ideas
which we did not and could not realise and thus increase the number
of our enemies and the pressure upon us, let us return to our
natural, legitimate limits. And let us know our limits... Those who
conquer by the sword are doomed to be overcome by those who conquer
with the plough... That is what happened to the Ottoman Empire."
Britain and America, having delivered and succoured Pakistan, like
the famous Dr Frankenstein, are being stalked by the monster of their
creation. Influential British and American voices across the
political spectrum refer increasingly to Pakistan as the global hub
of Islamist violence and conspiracy against the non-Islamic
international community.
"Breaking the silence on Pakistan and terrorism" is the title of Con
Couglin's recent Sunday Telegraph report on the expanding Taliban
insurgency in Afghanistan. The Pakistani hinterland bears the primary
characteristics of a failed state equipped with nuclear weapons, he
opines.
Fraser Nelson, in an article headlined "Don't Mention The Afghan-
Pakistan War" published in the Spectator, analyses the West's stark
predicament. "Like it or not, war is being waged on Afghanistan from
Pakistan... In theory, the Pakistan Government has signed up to the
war on terror... But in practice it is playing a double game... The
American failure to understand the complexity of the Pakistan problem
is perhaps one of the biggest strategic errors of the war in
Afghanistan." This is now a single conflict, pronounced a British
officer on the ground.
US covert action, through the CIA, in Afghanistan was "actually
authorised full six months before the Soviet invasion" -- in July
1979 -- wrote veteran American reporter John K Cooley (Unholy Wars:
Afghanistan, America and International Terrorism). President Jimmy
Carter's Polish American National Security Adviser Zbigniew
Brzezinski's insouciant admission that this was a Machiavellian ploy
to trap and weaken the USSR is not without irony. The boot today is
not on Washington's foot.
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Exclusive: Al Qaeda No. 2 Injured</b>? <!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->(CBS) Ayman al-Zawahiri - the second most powerful leader in al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden's No. 2 - may be critically wounded and possibly dead, CBS News chief foreign affairs correspondent Lara Logan reports exclusively. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->CBS News has obtained a copy of an intercepted letter from sources in Pakistan, which urgently requests a doctor to treat al-Zawahiri. He's believed to be somewhere in Pakistan's remote tribal areas of Pakistan.
The letter refers to Sheikh Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri by name - and says that he is in "severe pain" and his "injuries are infected."Â <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->Logan reports that while there have been false death rumors regarding al-Zawahiri before, there have been no denials yet from Pakistan, the U.S. or al Qaeda Web sites. <!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Mudy Ji :</b>
<b>Pakistani Taliban deny Zawahri death report</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A Pakistani Taliban spokesman denied on Saturday a U.S. media report that al Qaeda number two, Ayman al Zawahri, might have been killed or wounded in a U.S. missile strike in Pakistan's border region last Monday.
"Zawahri has been killed by them several times. But once again this claim is wrong. This is baseless," Maulvi Omar told Reuters by telephone from an undisclosed location.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
From the above we can deduce the following :
1. It cannot be confirmed that AAZ is dead.
2. Proof Positive that both OBL and AAZ have sanctuary in the Tribal Areas of Pakistan as it is the Pakistani Taliban that is issuing the statement. Since they know his physical condition so it is proved that he along with OBL have sanctuary within Pakistani Tribal Areas.
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Nareshji,
I doubt he is in tribal area, I think he is sitting in Paki Army officers mess or some General's house near Quetta or Karachi. One thing for sure , he is not in Mushy basement for now.
It is possible, US had spread this rumor to locate noise.
[center]<b><span style='color:green'>Gropper Gilly does Washington</span></b>[/center]
When asked why FATA was not being integrated with the rest of the country, Gilani replied that FATA was under the federal government and it had its senators and MNAs âwho are supporting usâ. âWell, good luck then,â Haass told him as the audience burst out laughing
Do Chinese leaders speak in Chinese at international gatherings because they do not know English? They do so because they take pride in their language and culture and by speaking in their own tongue, they want to make sure that they get the nuances right and say with precision what they need or intend to say.
Although every Pakistani quotes the famous hadith about going to China in search of knowledge, in truth we learn little from the Chinese, or from anyone else. This preamble I write because of our prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilaniâs inability to express himself in the language he used on his just-concluded official visit to Washington. Both he and his country would have been better off had he chosen to express himself in a language he could speak with comfort.
He could have spoken in Urdu or Seraiki and a competent interpreter would have done the rest. Perhaps I am being generous when I say that he should have chosen Urdu because when he did address a community dinner at a local hotel on July 29, he rambled and his thoughts were disjointed and haphazard, his choice of words poor and his grammar and syntax weak.
At the White House where he walked out from the Oval Office with President Bush to speak briefly â as did Bush â to a group of waiting journalists, he was awkward and unable to express himself either clearly or with precision. He also called Bush âMr President Bushâ at least twice.
The three days that he was in town, he said some most curious things. For instance, he kept saying that Pakistan does not have âsophisticated weaponsâ to deal with the insurgency in the tribal areas. The one example he repeatedly chose of Pakistanâs lack of âsophisticated weaponsâ was its inability to jam the broadcasts made by tribal insurgents on FM radio. The jamming âtechnologyâ, if it can be called that, was available in Pakistan as early as 50 years ago. I distinctly remember news bulletins of a radio station in Indian-occupied Kashmir being regularly jammed. At times, the jammers would come on the air and unload themselves of the choicest Punjabi abuse.
Today, when even Pakistani schoolboys are hi-tech savvy, the prime minister needs to check the âtechnologyâ scene with an eight-year old from Multan. The prime minister, who bragged that he was the civilian supremo of the Pakistan army, the ISI and the Intelligence Bureau, also declared that he was a journalist. Had he chosen the profession I doubt he would have done as well as he has done in the one he did pick up. He also said that his father had signed the Pakistan Resolution. As far as I know, nobody signed the 1940 Lahore Resolution. It was read out by Sher-e-Bangal AK Fazlul Haq and approved by acclamation.
While the prime minister and his attendant delegation continued to claim the conquest of Washington inside of 72 hours, the fact is that there was no mincing of words from the Americans when it came to Pakistanâs performance in fighting the FATA insurgency and its inability or unwillingness, or both, to liquidate terrorists and prevent their movement across the Afghan border. One source said that Bush had told Gilani that the US was reluctant to share actionable intelligence with Pakistan because of fears that it would be leaked to the very elements that were to be targeted.
With the uncertainty prevailing at home, the coalition, a partnership in name only, the judges issue still hanging in the air and with the NWFP and adjacent areas slipping out of state control, Gilani should have stayed home and only come when things had settled down. No one in Washington has any illusions about Pakistan, nor people here are unaware of where power lies. It is known that the prime minister exercises little authority and all decisions are taken by others.
There are far too many stakeholders in Pakistan today, all working at cross-purposes. The fiasco over the pathetic attempt to place the ISI âadministratively, financially and operationallyâ under the control of the Interior Ministry hung like an albatross around the prime ministerâs neck. Any commitment that Gilani made to the Americans was seen as no more than a string of empty words, since he is viewed as not having the power or the ability to deliver on anything.
However, let me conclude this with one of the most awkward and embarrassing performances I have ever witnessed in all my years of reporting. He made an appearance in an open dialogue with Richard Haass, one of this countryâs leading foreign policy experts, at an event jointly organised by the Council on Foreign Relations and the Middle East Institute. The large invited audience contained the cream of Washingtonâs intellectual community. Gilani first read a prepared speech, which contained the unfortunate line â that he repeated elsewhere too â âThis is not Charlie Wilsonâs war. It is Benazir Bhuttoâs war.â
This was followed by a question-answer session with Haass beginning to play with the prime minister as a cat plays with a mouse, since he found him dense, unable to answer questions and half the time even understand what he was being asked. Gilani seemed unable to speak coherently. Repeatedly, he failed to understand what he had been asked, gave answers that were unrelated to what the query had been. He obviously had a comprehension problem. I spoke to four foreign journalists, a few retired American diplomats and several Pakistani intellectuals and they were all agreed that Gilaniâs performance was an âunmitigated disasterâ.
Asked if Pakistan had the will or ability to fight terrorism, he replied that he had accepted the challenge and Pakistan would go for good governance. Asked if the Pakistani state was structurally weak, Gilani replied that âwe have inherited thisâ, adding that the US is facing difficulties in Afghanistan and âthis is a guerrilla war, not an ordinary war.â
Haass asked Gilani why democracy had failed in Pakistan and why the military had repeatedly intervened, only to be told that the US abandoned Afghanistan. India and Pakistan were similar but in Pakistan there had been army dictators and âwe wanted support of US we didnât getâ. As the prime minister continued in this vein, people snickered off and on and the Pakistanis fidgeted in their seats with embarrassment.
Haass told Gilani that he exaggerated Americaâs influence but was told that President Musharraf was not like the American president and the chief executive of Pakistan is the prime minister not the president. In reply to another question, the prime minister said (he hadnât been asked) that the Army chief was a âprofessionalâ and âfully supporting democracyâ.
When asked why FATA was not being integrated with the rest of the country, Gilani replied that FATA was under the federal government and it had its senators and MNAs âwho are supporting usâ. âWell, good luck then,â Haass told him as the audience burst out laughing. When Haass pointed out that Gilani had made no mention of India in his prepared speech, the prime minister told him of a congratulatory call Manmohan Singh had made to him, and he to Manmohan Singh after the recent vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha.
Gilani also declared that 99 percent of Pakistanis are âpatriotsâ. He also stated that the government is negotiating with those insurgents who have surrendered. Why was it any longer necessary to negotiate with those he had already surrendered, he did not explain. To another question, Gilani said, âThe US knows more about Pakistan than I doâ. To the question about rampant anti-Americanism in Pakistan, Gilani replied that the last government had no political support and used force. He said the US had backed the military. Asked what the US could do to help resolve Kashmir, the prime minister declared, âThe US can do what it wantsâ.
But let no more be said because âsufficient to the day...â
<i>Khalid Hasan is Daily Timesâ US-based correspondent. His e-mail is khasan2@cox.net</i>
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Nareshji,
Now Al-Qaida had confirmed, they had made press release. <!--emo& --><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<b>Al-Qaida: Explosives expert wanted by US killed </b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->CAIRO, Egypt - Al-Qaida confirmed Sunday the death of a top commander accused of training the suicide bombers who killed 17 American sailors on the USS Cole eight years ago.
Abu Khabab al-Masri, who had a $5 million bounty on his head from the United States, is believed to have been killed in an airstrike apparently launched by the U.S. in Pakistan last week.
An al-Qaida statement posted on the Internet said al-Masri and three other top figures were killed and warned of vengeance for their deaths. It did not say when, where or how they died but said some of their children were killed along with them.
Pakistani authorities have said they believe al-Masri is one of six people killed in an airstrike on July 28 on a compound in South Waziristan, a lawless tribal region near the Afghan border.
The U.S. military has not confirmed it was behind the missile strike. But similar U.S. attacks are periodically launched on militant targets in the tribal border region.
Both Osama bin Laden and his top deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, are believed to be hiding in the rugged and lawless region along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
The U.S. Justice Department has accused al-Masri, an Egyptian militant whose real name is Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, of training terrorists to use poisons and explosives.
He is also believed to have helped run al-Qaida's Darunta training camp in eastern Afghanistan until the camp was abandoned amid the 2001 U.S. invasion of the country. There he is thought to have conducted experiments in chemical and biological weapons, testing materials on dogs.
The al-Qaida statement called al-Masri and the other three slain commanders "a group of heroes" and warned of retaliation.
"We tell the enemies of God that God has saved those who will be even more painful for you," it said. "As Abu Khabab has gone, he left behind, with God's grace, a generation of faithful students who will make you suffer the worst torture and avenge him and his brothers."
The statement, whose authenticity could not be independently confirmed, was dated July 30 and signed by al-Qaida's top Afghan leader, Mustafa Abu al-Yazeed. It was posted on an Islamic militant Web site where al-Qaida usually issues official statements and videos of its leaders.
..............
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<b>Mudy Ji :</b>
That the Al Qaeda Explosive Expert has been killed by the US Raid is accepted but I would opine that Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri are very much under the protection of the Pakistani Government - Pakistani Army - I S I nexus.
As such these two can never be attacked by the US Forces as any raids carried out are with the knowledge and sanction of Mush the Tush.
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
Very much true they are under protection, no doubt about it. They are gold mine till they are alive.
Within 5-10 years there will be no tribal area or people. Reqular bombing either killed or displaced tribal population. Pakistan is making US to do dirty work for them, later Pakistan will populate this area with Punjabis and Muhajirs.
[center]<b><span style='font-size:21pt;line-height:100%'>The Problem Is Pakistan - Morton Abramowitz</span></b>[/center]
Barack Obama has said that the United States needs to send an extra 10,000 troops to Afghanistan. John McCain wants to send 15,000. But before ordering more soldiers into the fray, the next U.S. president should think about Afghanistan's historyâand how such surges there have failed in the past.
Three decades ago, the Soviet Union tried to subdue a fundamentalist Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan by deploying 108,000 troops (at the conflict's height in 1985â86), including special forces and substantial air power. But in 1989 the Red Army withdrew in defeat, having lost 13,000 soldiers, killed and maimed more than a million Afghans and sent 5 million refugees fleeing into nearby countries.
<b>The single biggest reason for the Soviets' failure was Pakistan. And if Washington isn't careful, Pakistan could have the same effect today.</b>
To understand why, start with the fact that Pakistan and Afghanistan share a 2,250-kilometer-long, highly porous border. During the Soviet occupation, Pakistan served as the essential conduit for U.S. and Saudi aid to the Afghan mujahedin. The Pakistanis funneled massive amounts of weapons to the Afghan fighters; the flow reached $1 billion annually by the late 1980s, some of it new, advanced U.S. arms.
At times the Soviets, knowing full well where the mujahedin's guns and Stinger missiles were coming from, must have considered invading Pakistan or conducting cross-border strikes. In the end they decided against it, fearing a wider conflict and thinking they had the military means to deal with the problem inside Afghanistan proper. Had the Soviet Union moved against Pakistan, it's impossible to know how things would have turned out. As it is, the Soviets' Afghan strategy failed, and the mighty Red Army, despite its sophisticated equipment, was ultimately beaten back by bands of local insurgents.
The similarities between then and now are striking. The U.S.-led Coalition has been in Afghanistan for seven years. There are now 70,000 Coalition troops in the country, including approximately 36,000 Americans. To date, more than 800 service members have been killed, and the numbers and pace of casualties are rising. Worse, despite the presence of these forces and billions of dollars in Western reconstruction aid, the Taliban seem to be getting stronger.
<b>Just as in the '80s, the main problem is Pakistan. Border areas nominally ruled by Islamabad have become Taliban safe havens, with weapons, drugs and Qaeda fighters being smuggled across with impunity. Despite Pakistani denials, the CIA has made well-grounded allegations that some government elements, including officers in Inter-Services Intelligence, are supporting the radicals.</b>
So how should the next U.S. president tackle this problem and avoid falling into the Soviets' trap? The Taliban insurgency is smaller than the anti-Soviet one was, although it's apparently better coordinated. And the Allies' technological advantage is greater than the Soviets' was. A surge of forces might help better control Afghanistan's borders and target insurgents. But simply throwing soldiers at the problem, especially at the levels the candidates have proposed, won't stop the infiltration of fighters from Pakistan or resolve Afghanistan's many domestic difficulties.
Periodically targeting Qaeda elements in Pakistan's lawless border regionsâan option Obama has said he would consider under some circumstancesâmight be helpful, too, but it would do little to stop the influx of gunmen into Afghanistan. And such military strikes would infuriate Islamabad and throw Pakistani politics into turmoil. A full-fledged invasion would be immensely costly and likely have even worse consequences.
It would be far better to find some way to get the Pakistanis to help voluntarily. The United States has already tried this tack using diplomatic persuasion and large amounts of mostly military aid, but to no avail.<b> Washington could increase pressure by threatening to shut off the tap unless Islamabad played ball. But such a confrontational approach would also be dangerous and likely not work either.
The harsh realities of the situation in Afghanistanâincluding Pakistan's meddlesome roleâcan no longer be ignored.</b> The stakes for the United States and the region are enormous, and good options are in short supply. No quick fix will solve the problemâcertainly not the infusion of a few more American brigades. The Soviet saga shows the danger of a focused, military-only approach. Talking tough, as the presidential candidates try to bolster their national-security credentials, is not likely to help, and the sooner we recognize that, the better. Building a stable Afghanistan will be a long-term, uncertain effort. Without a concerted bipartisan approach, no policy is likely to survive or succeed. Meanwhile, the political warfare is distracting us from the necessary fight.
Abramowitz, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation, was assistant secretary of State for Intelligence and Research from 1985 to 1989 : E-mail : abramowitz@tcf.org
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<b>Taliban to âtake on Indiaâ after defeating allied forces</b>
<!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin--><i>TTP spokesman blames govt for prevailing lawlessness</i>
KHAR : Deputy Commander Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Maulana Faqir Muhammad has said India is an eternal enemy of the Ummah and would be confronted after defeating the allied forces stationed in Afghanistan.
Responding to Pakistanâs report accusing Indian intelligence agency RAW of helping militants in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, Faqir Muhammad said it was yet another attempt to malign the TTP movement and to portray Taliban as terrorists.
âWe are true Muslims and true Pakistanis and are more concerned about the countryâs safety than any other countryman. We consider India as our eternal enemy and plan to deal with them once we defeat the Americans,â the TTP commander told The News in an exclusive interview on Monday.
He accused the government of plunging the country into lawlessness by sealing its border with India, forcing the militants combating Indian forces to come to the tribal areas. He said the TTP was not concerned with the accusation levelled against them, âas people would know about our friendship with India once we take on them.â
Faqir Muhammad, who leads TTP in Bajaur, said after they decided to take on India, the TTP would not only conduct operations in Kashmir but would carry out attacks throughout that country.
He said the real Kashmiri âMujahideenâ have realised that the government was no more interested in the freedom of Kashmir and they therefore joined the ranks of TTP after closure of the line of control. Being a true Muslim, a âMujahidâ never abandons his efforts for helping out fellow brothers, he added.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Cheers <!--emo&:beer--><img src='style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cheers.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='cheers.gif' /><!--endemo-->
These guys are the fake Paki Talibuns and not the real Afghan Talibuns. But seriously once they get their FARTasthan, they will pose serious problms for the Pakjabis.
RE Abramowitz article (76)
True that there are many parallels between the Red occupation of Afghanistan and the US/NATO one. But the one thing that they do not have in common dwarfs all the things that they did have in common:
The Reds could withdraw without risking massive future attacks as a result (the disintegration of the communist empire was a very significant piece of fallout, but it cannot be called a massive attack).
If the US withdraws, I think there will be massive attacks on US soil within 5 years.
<b>Pakistani Woman Extradited to New York for Alleged Attack on U.S. Soldiers</b><!--QuoteBegin-->QUOTE<!--QuoteEBegin-->NEW YORK â <b>An MIT-educated Pakistani woman once identified as a possible Al Qaeda associate has been brought to New York to face charges she tried to kill U.S. </b>agents and military officers during an interrogation in Afghanistan, federal prosecutors said.
<b>Aafia Siddiqui, who was shot and wounded last month during the confrontation</b>, was expected to be arraigned Tuesday in federal court in Manhattan on charges of attempted murder and assault, U.S. Attorney Michael Garcia said in a statement. A lawyer for her family said the allegations are false.
<b>Siddiqui, 36, was stopped by police on July 17 outside a government building in central Afghanistan's Ghazni province, according to a criminal complaint. Police searched her handbag and discovered documents containing recipes for explosives and chemical weapons and describing "various landmarks in the United States, including New York City," according to the complaint, which did not identify the landmarks.</b>
<b>Police also found maps of Ghazni on her, including the provincial governor's compounds and the mosques he prayed in, said governor spokesman Sayed Ismail Jahangir.</b>
Siddiqui also was carrying "chemical substances in gel and liquid form that were sealed in bottles and glass jars," the complaint said. It did not elaborate. Jahangir said she was carrying "liquid poison."
Al Qaeda Aid? The next day, as a team of FBI agents and U.S. military officers prepared to question her, Siddiqui grabbed a rifle, pointed it at an Army captain and yelled that she wanted blood, prosecutors said. An interpreter pushed the rifle aside as she fired two shots, which missed, they said. One of two shots fired by a soldier in response hit her in the torso.
<b>Even after being hit, Siddiqui struggled and shouted in English "that she wanted to kill Americans" before the officers subdued her, the complaint said.</b>
Authorities believe she entered the country from Pakistan, crossing the border at Chaman border post into the southern Kandahar province, he said. She spent two days in Kabul before going to Ghazni.
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